Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

JScott

Jim, point taken. Ohio seems to be still in Obama's corner - and that is key - but the margin is razor thin. Much of Romney's popular vote lead is extending the lead in electoral areas already solidified. It's getting tighter in the electoral vote, too though. This is going to be very close and I'm ...

JScott

I've said repeatedly I think these polls are impossible to understand, but if the latest batch are anywhere near accurate, O is in major trouble. It will be interesting to see the next few days, which theoretically include Round 2. If there's not much of a bounce this one may be slipping away from h...

JScott

Devastating assessment....

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com ... -away.html

JScott

....and Pew shows Romney up 4. Supposedly Romney leads in Independents by something like 15. If that were true he should be out front by a mile. These polls are nonsense. Gimme the JHEPI all day.....

JScott

I wasn't using Fox as a source for polling accuracy data. Googling brings up a whole host of sites that analyze past performance, and Rasmussen was most accurate in the past two cycles. Pew was the overall winner in aggregating all cycles back to '00. I still rely exclusively on the JHEPI!!

JScott

It could not be any tighter here. You can drive down almost any road and yard signs alternate every other, Romney and Obama. I speak privately with hundreds of people weekly and get the same impression. Both sides seem very motivated, both believe this is the most important election of a lifetime. W...

JScott

JimHow wrote:Obama gained one point in today's Gallup, now up 50-45%.
Significantly, this result includes one full day of polling following the debate.

As I predicted above. I personally put little stock in it. Most informed voters are talking about the JHEPI.....

JScott

As we all expected here, looks like it's going to start getting hot. Dirt is going to start to fly. Rumors about campaign finance issues due out today or Monday....

JScott

Where's our graph?? The world is owed a look at the JHEPI over time. The polls are all skewed and artifactual. I need something I can hang my hat on dammit!!

JScott

Also thought Romney was the winner. It may be stating the obvious to say that debate is not Obama's strong suit. That said, I'd be stunned if Round 2 didn't look a lot different than this. The trick for Obama will be to be more assertive and aggressive without coming off as angry or strident. His ca...

JScott

At this point I have no idea what to think. I really don't believe a single poll out there any more. Many of the polls that had Obama all but locked last week appear to have done so using sampling that assumes historically unprecedented, record turnout for Dems, and this week suddenly the polls are ...

JScott

Nice, Tom, nice.

JScott

I think the $250M he's already earned would cover those things decently well...... Yes he's made a lot of money. He certainly doesn't need to worry about anything. Maybe he'll get elected. Maybe he will. Maybe he won't. Making a lot of money certainly hasn't been a disqualifier in France, Italy, th...

JScott

I think the $250M he's already earned would cover those things decently well......

JScott

OK, gimme a minute here... "...human right to food, health care and housing..." So we all can just sit back and these things will be delivered to us, since they are human rights? Or did I miss something? Doesn't somebody have to grow the food, provide the health care and build the housing...

JScott

Scott, I'm in general agreement with your points. But I'm not sure that an increase in popularity after retirement has any relationship to whether a politician's policies while in office were sound or effective. There are multiple reasons why favorables go up or down, many of which are related to p...

JScott

Gary, agree with most of the points you make regarding policy. The reason they trot Clinton out as a nostalgic hero is because he is one. Whether his policies were helpful is a different discussion; he polls with tremendous favorables (more than when he was actually in office, which proves the point...

JScott

Hmmm. I think Romney probably exceeded expectations with his speech, in no small part because the expectations were so modest. Fair or no, Obama does not have that luxury, having set his own bar fairly high. This was not one of his better speeches, short of expectations, in my view. Barrack may have...

JScott

Lafite and Haut Brion!

JScott

Rubio has immense potential. Being as objective as I can be, looking forward, the farm team in the GOP looks much more formidable in the out years right now. I'm not sure who I see as the real up and comers for the Dems. Maybe we'll find out next week. (Lately the real utility of these conventions i...

JScott

Meanwhile, TV ratings have been off dramatically compared to '08. If I'm in the Romney camp, I'd be a bit concerned. Doesn't exactly sound like they're electrifying the populace. The other way to interpret it, I guess, is that many more have already made up their minds. Or maybe everyone's grown wea...

JScott

Agree with your grades, Jim. I think Romney did about as good as he's capable of. He is not a natural orator. I believe he is smart, pragmatic and an undeniably savvy businessman, but he isn't charismatic. He does convey sincerity, and I think on many levels he's a good and loyal man, a good father ...

JScott

I have to say, while I admire Moore's conviction and passion, his pretense that somehow he is not part of the one percent he loves to skewer is stunning. He does his best everyman, and I do think that's where his heart lies, but there's an undeniable underlying hypocrisy that undercuts his arguments...

JScott

Funny, have to tell you, I see a wide cross section of people in my work - all walks, all income levels, backgrounds, etc. Lots of people coming through today telling me never in their life did they hear such a lineup of fabulous speeches, one better than the next. Completely unscientific, of course...

JScott

It really does look like Jeb is the cream of the crop in that clan. {Insert disclaimer about bar height, etc.}

JScott

Houndsong wrote:They have the wrong Portman. Natalie would be better.

lol

JScott

JimHow wrote:Flat start for Portman...

This is why he's not the running mate....

JScott

And I think they ultimately had an ugly split. Quelle surprise.

JScott

Sondra Locke

JScott

Who is the "mystery speaker?" I'm hearing speculation about Clint Eastwood. No offense to the man, but are you effing kidding me??

JScott

Ryan will be solid, always is. It's Mitt's address that will be most important. And I don't expect much.

JScott

Since Nixon (more then 40 yrs!), the rate of government spending, and more importantly, the size of the of the deficit have grown faster under republican presidents than democratic ones. Yet, some how we all just agree that the dems are the big spenders. They both are! One spends it all on big defe...

JScott

Christie's Achilles heel (okay, he's got more than one) is his ego. He apparently decided to make this his formal introduction to the world in preparation for his '16 run. Big mistake. He did nothing to help his party or himself. Disappointment. Overall, I wouldn't personally categorize the conventi...

JScott

Interesting proposition, Jim. I think it will depend on how things are structured post-election. Virtual certainty the GOP holds the House. With events of this past week or two, looking more likely the Dems will hang onto the Senate, though that's still a tough call. (McCaskill went from dead in the...

JScott

I think the prez is in verty big trouble. The polls are even and Romney has not even begun to unleash his fury yet, as he will begin to outspend Obama by multiples after the Republican convention next week. Getting cynical, I guess, but I don't know if I even believe any of the polling any more. Th...

JScott

Throughout human history, has there ever been a greater political gift than the one handed McCaskill by Akin? You can't make this stuff up......

JScott

Exactly right, Jim. There are limits on contributions to an IRA, not appreciation. He was very savvy in his use of the tax code. Not particularly shocking. You don't get that rich by being a financial dolt. He'd rather not have his wealth and use of the tax code examined, of course, not so much beca...

JScott

Jim, I may be wrong, but I think the coal issue really plays to what is already mostly Romney's base. It may have an impact in shoring up turnout, but I don't think it will swing a large number of voters. I get the sense that it may be more of a problem for Brown in the Senate race, but I still don'...

JScott

We'll find out if this is still a race next week. Here's betting we see an Obama bounce.

JScott

Jim, I think you need to change the title of this thread. Obama has just secured his second term. No disrespect to Ryan. I actually like him quite a bit. As you said, he's an almost impossibly positive, upbeat guy, very likable. (Although Obama reportedly hates him - I think it goes back to the tele...

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