2009s selling like hotcakes

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:46 pm

Another perspective from Decanter:

I guess that leaves the negociants and the UK merchants and speculators who have bought from the negociants in hopes of selling on to Asia holding the wine. It will be very interesting to see what happens in another couple of years when the wines are physically released.

by Adam Lechmere

The China market for Bordeaux 2009 has not materialised as expected, two London merchants say – at the same time as they announce record figures for the vintage.

Two major merchants, Farr Vintners and Bordeaux Index, say their sales have rocketed this year.

Farrs' chief Stephen Browett announced sales of £53m with just over 30,000 cases sold at an average of £1760 per case.

Another London merchant, Bordeaux Index, announced sales of £16m for en primeur wines.

It said the relative lack of demand from the Far East was 'anomalous' given the fact Hong Kong is the second biggest wine market in the world.

'The widely-anticipated rush in demand from the Far East has thus far failed to materialise. The sales of BI's Hong Kong office accounted for no more than 10% of the overall group sales of this vintage,' the company announced.

Bordeaux Index's Gary Boom said the prediction – widely aired – that the Chinese would cast their nets much wider than the traditional first growths and super seconds 'just hasn't happened'.

'They have bought ten properties at the most: Margaux, Mouton, Lafite, Carruades de Lafite, Cheval Blanc, Duhart Milon, Angelus, Lynch Bages. Nothing has changed.'

Boom said that Chinese buyers were happy to pay 'top prices' with a 15% premium for the best wines and would 'ignore the rest'. Such clients are not interested in buying lesser wines as a guarantee of allocations of the top wines.

The story from Farrs is the same. Browett said Far East customers were responsible for more than a third of value sales, but a tiny proportion of volume.

'Sales by value have been 60% UK, 40% Far East, but by volume it's about 85% to 15%, as Far East customers have mainly bought only First Growths and "super-seconds".'

He added, 'There has been virtually no interest from the USA.'

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:22 pm

That last line is interesting.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 5:31 pm

Do we know what the impact has been, if any, of the Diageo Chateau and Estates decision not to participate?

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:19 pm

Great! I'll be able to buy all Gruaud and Pavie Mac I crave.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:23 pm

Daniel,

You are drawing far too many conclusions from far too litte knowledge and, above all, the campaign is far too young!

We will see.

Best regards,
Alex R.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:34 pm

I suspect that there is now and will be plenty of opportunity for purchasing these wines in the US despite Diageo's exit from the market. There are direct importers and there will be gray-market opportunities. I am getting emails with offers of just about everything still available. The lack of interest from the US is due to prices, not lack of availability, in my opinion.

But from the negociant's perspective, I can see where Diageo's absence could have a major impact. They would now have to deal with multiple smaller importers instead of selling to one of the behemoths.

Dan, I think all the wine that "sold" is either still being held by negociants, despite what Farr and Bordeaux Index say, or was sold to UK merchants and speculators hoping to make a profit by selling on to Asia. I saw the bit about UK merchants and speculators in another online article, I think Jancis Robinson's in Financial Times. My guess is that a lot of that wine is going to be stuck for years to come with whoever is holding it now. But it's only a guess.

Further, I don't think anyone other than the Bordelais, courtiers and negociants knows how much the chateaux are still holding back. And they are not telling.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Fri Jul 09, 2010 6:55 am

Daniel,

The discussion is getting somewhat sterile at this point...

Please realize that the answer to the questions raised in this thread are not in New York, but Bordeaux.

Best regards,
Alex R.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Fri Jul 09, 2010 7:48 pm

Daniel,

Take a deep breath, hold your horses, and stop being so aggressive.

You will not believe what you do not want to believe. Fine.

I just wish you understood the wine business better before making such sweeping statements!

Best regards,
Alex R.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 1:17 pm

Some tidbits from Jeff Leve on how much wine the chateaux hold back:

With few exceptions, only the Firsts sell in Tranches. The majority of Bordeaux wines are offered and sold in the same day. In 2009, some chateaux sold additional tranches. You can believe me or not, but the later tranches were small. Most of any the production from chateaux is sold in the initial offering. That is the truth. I am in Bordeaux a lot. In fact, I am in Bordeaux at the moment. You are welcome to think everyone lies to me. But I have some very strong, long term relationships with people here, and we always talk straight. That is how it works.

And some musings from Simon Staples of Berry Bros, who obviously has a vested interest in selling the stuff.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 1:52 pm

Earlier in this thread, a spokesman for Farr vintners was quoted as saying that demand in China was only for the first growths, which was taken to mean that the Asian market was a pipe dream (in keeping with the market in general...).

"'The overall conclusion,' say Farr, 'is that the vintage has been just as popular as the previous record-breaker 2005. However, a combination of higher demand for the more expensive wines, weaker demand for the cheaper wines, higher release prices and a weaker pound has meant that the average price per case sold has doubled.'

http://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/a201007072.html

***What a far cry what the same people were saying in the month of March***!!!

http://www.decanter.com/news/279212.html

Best regards,
Alex R.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 3:06 pm

I was sorry to see that Jancis does not address the rumor that Farr representatives in Asia are saying to their customers that instead of mixing Petrus with Coca-Cola, they should try one part Lafite to two parts Yquem.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 3:11 pm

Farr has sold 30,000 cases of '09 so far. How does that compare to their sales in other vintages?

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 3:14 pm

Good one, Stefan!

Alex, this current Decanter article suggests that a lot of '09s that have been "sold" are sitting on the books of UK merchants and speculators hoping to make a profit by selling on to Asia. I'm not so sure that China is going to snap them all up, except maybe the first growths. A lot could happen between now and 2012, when the wines are actually available.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Sat Jul 10, 2010 7:27 pm

Alex your Decanter article is from 2009 referencing the 2008 vintage.

"[BI] said the relative lack of demand from the Far East was 'anomalous' given the fact Hong Kong is the second biggest wine market in the world."

What to make of that? Canary in the coal mine?

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Sun Jul 11, 2010 8:01 pm

Daniel,

As opposed to, let's say the stock market, things cannot be reduced to neat mathematic formulae. This is not possible in Bordeaux because the information is known only by the trade (and when things screw up, believe you me, no one makes any bones about it, and discounts follow at the source here too).
This is capitalism, baby!

Furthermore, if we take the 200 leading labels, each has their own policy, number of tranches, terms of payment, etc.
The picture is extremely varied.

You have a much firmer grip on the reality of these futures sales in your part of America and in the US as a whole than I could ever hope to have.
All I've been trying to say is that the market is global, the campaign is ongoing, and the indications are that 2009 is selling very well.

You inform me that this is not the case in the US. I have no reason to doubt you. As for the rest of the world, this is another story.

As I've said from the first, there is a strong element of irrationality here (especially when you look at available stocks of 2005s), but who ever said that buying luxury products was rational?

As for me, I think I'm going to renege on my determination not to buy any 2009s. I really liked château Saint-Pierre in Saint-Julien. It costs 52 euros exclusive of VAT. I think I'll order 6 bottles.

Best regards,
Alex R.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 11, 2010 10:21 pm

I have my eyes on the '09 Talbot, Alex, HWSRN says it is the best since '82/86 and he really knows what he's talking about. It's going in the low $50s in futuro here in the U.S.A.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:00 am

People are buying 2009 Cos at $300. I am interesting in purchasing more of the marvelous 1996, which is available at $125. Already very good, this wine in five years might rival the great 1990.

Now if I liked Cos & Coke....

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:58 am

I'd like to get one thing straight. Daniel, you've been in the business "10 years", you run a fine wine shop, and you tout your extensive contacts in the wine world. As proof that 2009 Bdx isn't selling well you offer the fact that you're getting offers for some of the wines?

gremlins · Post by **gremlins** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 8:52 am

Hi guys,

Just 2 cents.

The Ep sales by UK merchants may not be reflective of what's happening in Asia. There are wine merchants in Asia selling EP.

While Singapore is not a representative of Asia - HK, China & Japan, the retailers in Singapore seems to be doing well for the 09 EP.

Take a look at the list of EP on offer by the biggest EP player in Singapore, and the items which are sold out. -> http://www.crystalwines.com/en-primeur-2009.php.

Cheers,
Roland

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:21 pm

There, I couldn't resist.

Today I bought a mixed case:

- 6 bottles St. Pierre
- 3 bottles Lynch Bages
- 2 bottles Léoville Barton
- 1 bottle Léoville Poyferré

Alex R.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:20 pm

Its great to have someone like Pomerol lover back on the board

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 4:03 pm

Daniel,

The wines are selling well, whatever you believe.
Check out availability at one of the leading French distributors: http://www.chateauprimeur.com/onglet-2009-pauillac.html
(this is for consumers, not the trade).

Did you see the comment above about Singapore?

You asked:
"How did you do pricewise on those purchases?"
- St. Pierre 52 euros
- Lynch Bages 98 euros
- Léoville Barton 72 euros
- Léoville Poyferré 144 euros
Those are exclusive of Value Added Tax.

The first growths are selling well. It's a fine vintage, with prices to match (some of them eye-popping, agreed), but very popular indeed.

Best regards,
Alex R.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 4:52 pm

I bought half a GPL and a full Pontet Canet even though I ridiculed other people paying ludicrous sums for this wine on another board.

Among the likes of us there is a lot of 'over my dead body'/'not gonna touch the stuff at those prices' mentality - a kind of Kubler Ross grief syndrome - then you end up buying some anyway because there really has been nothing like it and prices will never come down. At the margin it is all about the increased wealth in emerging markets and change in 'tastes' - in many cases a prestige thing - viz. Ch Lafite being the ultimate accessory in China. Daniel many of the big wine merchants do more turnover in HK than London and NY combined.

Is fine wine (e.g., top x number of estates in Bordeaux) a good or an asset? If it is a good the laws of supply and demand should apply. If the latter the laws of supply and demand can go temporarily into reverse, which means you get a bubble and an inevitable bust. I think fine wine has characteristics of both, and that's why global demand is surprisingly high in the face of these prices as the hype machine reaches corners of the globe it has not reached before.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 5:11 pm

Yes sounds like it Daniel. It was Alex who persuaded me to buy it because he assured me that it would secure the all important 100pt rating. Btw I got it second tranche then saw it offered for slightly less a week later. Now it has settled at a price slightly higher than I paid.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:42 pm

Interest purchases, Alex. Why did you buy St Pierre? Know something we don't?

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:49 pm

Daniel,

>>>Thanks, Alex, you paid a lot.

Those were retail prices, Daniel, not trade prices.

>>>Any idea what their allocations were? prices they sold out at?

Let's go over this again.
The chateau knows about allocations and/or tranches.
The broker knows about allocations and/or tranches.
The négociant knows about allocations and/or tranches.
But none of the above wants anyone else to know. Indeed, why should they?

As for the rest, we're going to start calling you Doubting Daniel. Anything that doesn't fit in with your viewpoint has to be wrong or give rise to serious doubt. Doubting is a sign of intelligence... up to a point.

>>>My main question is, did the Chateaus release all of their wines by now?
We've been over this. Each château is different, and each vintage is different. That makes a heck of a lot of permutations.
Only people in the trade have a decent handle on this. And they are the ones who are telling me how well the 2009s are selling (and who you do not believe).

Patrick,

I am a huge fan of Saint-Pierre. It's a chunky, fruity, textbook St. Julien you almost eat as much as you drink (OK, I'm exaggerating a little...). It was tremendously good in 2009. I fell hook, line, and sinker and figure it's excellent value for money.
I also felt that it wouldn't take quite so long to mature as some of the other great wines.
St. Pierre has been getting better and better. Try and pick up any recent vintage and give it a test drive.

Best regards,
Alex R.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 8:46 pm

I really like the 2003 and 2005 St. Pierre... sounds like the 2009 is even better. Too bad it's gone from $30 in 2003, $50 in 2005, to $65-$70 today!!!

Just curious, what happened at this chateau that made it a Parker darling overnight starting in 2003? Before that vintage, Parker never gave much love to this St. Julien. Did they hire a super-star consultant? Did they super-charge their style? I admit, seeing your endorsement means a lot, Alex, as you are no sucker for simple Parkerized wines.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 8:55 pm

Hi Patrick,

It is only "by ricochet" that I ever hear how Parker scores wines.
For instance, I was unaware until your post that he has upped his appreciation of Saint Pierre.
This has always been a good, dependable wine that never seemed to get the recognition it deserves.
In fact the sister estate, Gloria, is probably better known!
And then, it's true, Saint Pierre has become much better since the beginning of the decade.
I've had it at various UGC tastings recently and it stood out as one of the best at the 2009 Pauillac/St. Julien/St. Estèphe
tasting at Ch. Batailley. Just a sensual, classic St. Julien.
Expensive compared to what it was? Yes, very much so.
Expensive compared to other great growths. No, not really.

All the best,
Alex

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 9:16 pm

FWIW, Here's some Parker scores for St. Pierre through the years:
2009- (94-98*)
2008- (92-94)
2007- 91
2006- 93
2005- 93
2004- 92
2003- 93+
2002- 89
2001- 89
2000- 89
1999- 87
1998- (87-88)
1997- (87-89)
1996- 86
1995- (87-89)
1994- (89-90)
1990- 90
1989- 89

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 9:28 pm

I knew the 2000 scored 89, because I loved it. http://bordeauxwine.org/bwe/new/8/128728/ I wish they would go back to making them that way.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Jul 12, 2010 10:22 pm

Dan is being persistent, but I do not think he is being stubborn. We don't really know how well these wines are selling through to consumers because the people who do know are not telling. You said so yourself, Alex, a few posts above. All we have is indirect evidence and inference. So far that indirect evidence does not seem to support the notion that the wines are selling that well. To review:

1) Retailers in the US are being offered plenty of wine at prices similar to first tranche. There is no scarcity or significant price escalation at the wholesale level.

2) Consumers can still find almost any of the wines at relatively stable prices. There is no scarcity or significant price escalation at the retail level.

If either of the the above changes, then I would be willing to assume that the wines are moving well.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 4:15 am

Guys
The local Sngapore retailer I ordered 09s from sold out of many wines in a few hours - those receiving igh RP points (they are points buyers here - even restaurants list RP points). And the first tranche of Lafite was only sold on allocation. They only sold me some wines in high demand as I bought a large number.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 6:05 am

David,

I'm not the only one on this thread supporting the fact that the 2009s are selling well.

What is abundantly clear is that the US market is reticent.

You write:
"So far that indirect evidence does not seem to support the notion that the wines are selling that well".

Well, from all I've read on this thread, any evidence to the contrary is piecemeal and unconvincing too!!!
Shall we call it stalemate then?
And acknowledge that the sorts of figures some of you are gunning for will never, ever be available in any vintage,
because Bordeaux doesn't work that way?
I do regret, however, that there seems to be a permanent confusion among American forumites between the US market
for Bordeaux and the international market for Bordeaux...

Best regards,
Alex R.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 12:43 pm

Looks like everybody's right. They're sold out. The wines are mouldering in storage (virtually). And everybody's wrong. All the wine sells in one tranche. The wine is sold in dribs and drabs. And the nice thing is these are all the opinions of experts.

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 2:13 pm

Alex,

You bought:

St. Pierre 52 euros
- Lynch Bages 98 euros
- Léoville Barton 72 euros
- Léoville Poyferré 144 euros

Imho you payed too much. And you chose only wines from St.Julien and Pauillac?

My buys included all Danish taxes and transport:

2 btl Malescot St.E. á 87 euros, 2 btl La Dominique á 41 euros, 3 btl Pontet Canet á 105 euros and 2 btl Climens á 100 Euros. I still hesitate to buy one of my favorites Montrose - is too expensive in 2009, but maybe I'll buy few bottles anyway.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 2:23 pm

Izak,

I paid the going rate on my market (Jeez, do I tell you what the h**** wines should cost in Denmark?).
I bought the wines at the Vinothèque. The prices at l'Intendant (J.P. Moueix) were just the same.

Alex

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 2:53 pm

Alex, has anyone mentioned that you paid too much for your purchases? Let me add this is especially true because 2009 is not selling well and the wines will cost no more on release. Are you new to this thread?

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 3:07 pm

Hound,

LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Alex
(the village idiot / the village is Bordeaux / where is currently very hot and humid and half the population is on vacation, but not me).

greatbxfreak · Post by **greatbxfreak** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 6:26 pm

Alex,

You snarl at me! Please, you and hound, spare me for your ironical comments.

I bought both LP and LB 2005 at half price of 2009, Climens 2009 is slightly cheaper than 2005. La Dominique and Malescot 2009 were my first purchase of these two properties. The latter was my winner of Margaux tasting and I was willing to pay its price.

Just wanted to make a comparison.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Tue Jul 13, 2010 7:00 pm

Izak you were unlucky to be number two. They say the early bird gets the worm but the lazy mouse gets the cheese. Not in the case.