A Word on Buying 2009 Bordeaux: WAIT

[Blanquito]

When I think about buying 2009 futures (no matter how much they may be like hot cakes), a little bird reminds me of these simple truths: the top 200 chateau came out at death-defying prices in the 2005 futures campaign. The top 25-30 of these proved worth buying en primeur, as they received very high ratings and escalated sharply in price. The other 175 or so chateau, many of which received excellent scores between 92-94, never appreciated from their futures price and many are now available at 15-25% less (albeit on on-line auction sites). Of course, some of these "lesser" wines are no longer available on the market, so it made sense to buy them if it is a chateau you always buy, etc. But overall, 2005 futures made little sense to buy. I didn't have any retailers go-under on my 2005 futures purchases, but I overpaid as it turns out and I didn't get to taste them myself on release to make sure I like the style.

This applies all the more so to 2009 futures, I'm guessing. I've bought some 2009 futures from inexpensive chateau, not because I expect them to escalate in price (unless the upper end of Parker's barrel scores are attained or exceeded), but because I want them and need the fix of buying them now. Silly, but they're cheap enough that I'm not really risking much.

This all said, I see Pontet-Canet as a sure thing to be one of those 25-30 estates that see serious price hikes, so well done Ian. Well done.

[DavidG]

I agree wholeheartedly, Patrick. From my perspective, there is no reason to buy '09 futures.

[JonB]

I generally agree:
a) there's no solid evidence that says any of these wines won't be available on merchant's shelves (or via auction) in 2 years time (at substantially similar prices);

b) it is unlikely that there will be mid-term reviews by RP, Suckling et al, removing another hype catalyst for emotional buying;

c) the pricing on '09s for me takes away an reason to purchase early.

It is easy to get sucked in, and I ended up buying a few wines that are relatively small production and I thought reasonably priced, but less than 5% of the bottle volume that I bought of 2005s en primeur.

Heck, even RP is advising to exercise caution with respect to 2009 futures; if you want more sober wine reviews read International Wine Cellar.

[Houndsong]

Tanzer is a wet blanket.

The China threat could materialize any day now. Look what happened to copper (well don't look just now).

Parker has all but raised your Pavie Mac to 98 points, Jon. If he doesn't he's a total fraud.

[DavidG]

b) it is unlikely that there will be mid-term reviews by RP, Suckling et al, removing another hype catalyst for emotional buying;

Jon, are you saying that it's unlikely that RP will come out with his usual in-the-bottle report in another year, still a year prior to release? What makes you say that?

[Blanquito]

b) it is unlikely that there will be mid-term reviews by RP, Suckling et al, removing another hype catalyst for emotional buying;

Jon, are you saying that it's unlikely that RP will come out with his usual in-the-bottle report in another year, still a year prior to release? What makes you say that?

Well, I haven't heard anything official from the Bob, but he hasn't done it since 2005.

[DavidG]

I didn't realize that. Wonder if he will do it for '09 given the hype.

[JonB]

RP (and Tanzer in a similar time frame) both cut back to 2 reviews per vintage after the 2005s, both stating something to the effect that the middle review was an awkward period to be tasting young (?just bottled?) wines. RP has had 3 reviews per vintage generally back to the mid 1990s.

From casual observation, the 2005s didn't really start escalating in price and selling out at retailers (in tranches, I suppose, either of the producer's or middleman's doings) in the US until around the 2nd of 3 reviews, and that fed emotional or speculative buying. Of course the economy was stronger then.

Sure, he could change again to 3 reviews, but my guess is he won't.

[Claudius2]

Guys
Your argument holds true in the USA but not in either Australia or Singapore.
I have ordered quite a lot (about 13 cases) of 09s - mainly as the prices in SIngapore were pretty attractive for the middle ranking wines that I intend to DRINK - yes, amazingly, not speculate with and later sell to a bunch of Chinese arbitragers.

I have also bought more St Emilions than usual as my cellar (actually a hold) is well stocked with Medocs that will in some cases probably outlive me....

So location wise, I find it just about impossible to buy decent Bordeaux in Singapore and reasonable prices Only one retailer guarantees air cond storage and wine here gets ruined very quickly in the blistering heat of the day.

So I have also been buying up wine storage cabinets for the impending delivery of my Remoissenet burgundies as well.

[Houndsong]

The most provocative opinion is the one that wine is not selling well unless it debuts at a high price and goes into an immediate escalating spiral. But perhaps that is an unseasoned view of just the last decade of futures campaigns. Kind of like the view of the housing market in the US if you had just come into it circa 2000.

[RDD]

It is very easy for me to say "No."
I don't have the money.
I still have good stocks of older vintages.
Had a very good 1982 Calon Segur for our anniversary. The heart on the bottle fits the theme too.

[dstgolf]

Rob,

How was the 82 Calon Segur? We had a great experience with it last Valentines day at my friends place. He opened it,smelled and said it was dead!Tasted and confirmed dead. I had a whiff and taste and said there might be some life. Let's put it aside and try something else. We decanted it and let it sit on the dinner table. Mid way through dinner while reaching across the table I got a sniff of this beautiful magical aroma. My eyes opened wide and I encouraged my buddy to give it a try. You should have seen his face. This wine was amazing! Saved from being thrown down the sink it turned into one of our most memorable wine experiences. Just a beautiful wine that every wine lover dreams of and the women loved it more. What a great Valentine's memory! I hope Rob that yours was as good on your anniversay!

Danny

[Ramon_NYC]

I’ve waited long enough! I’m going on a buying spree … only because these wines are like hotcakes. And I like hotcakes!

Kidding aside, I’m with Blanquito and will WAIT! As a matter of fact, even some of my 2005 pre-arrival purchased from 2+ years back that are still to be delivered by the-store-that’s-based –in-California-and-usually-has-low-priced-futures-that’s-never-delivered-and-which-will-remain-unamed (from now on, will simply be referred to as TSTBICAUHLPFTNDAWWRU) are, at present, hovering around my purchase price as per WS Pro.

[JonB]

Meanwhile, those 2006s are being discounted....like today's Wine Connection email for '06 Pavie Macquin at $43/750.....I could have bought this a couple years ago for $60 (actually, I still can!).

[JonB]

1) Bob Parker will have his "mid barrel" report on 2008 this fall, or so he claims.

Interesting....thanks.....he doesn't show it on The Wine Advocate 2010 Editorial Calendar....
The Wine Advocate 2010 Editorial Calendar*


* It is possible that, due to space limitations in the paper publication, some of these will appear only on the eRobertParker.com website. This calendar is only an estimate. The contents of the actual publication may differ due to editorial considerations at the time it is put together.

[DavidG]

Ramon, I am still wating on about a case of '05s from TSTBICAUHLPFTNDAWWRU, and like you I could buy most of them and have them in my cellar at the same or in some cases lower prices than I paid for them almost 4 years ago. If I'd had the money in the stock market... hmm, maybe those futures purchase weren't such a bad idea.

I will likely buy some '09s when they show up on retailers' shelves. Wines for drinking, in the $20-50 range. I wash my hands of the very-high-priced top wines that will take a long time to come around. Got enough of those, in earlier vintages, to make it easy to pass on them entirely.

[Ramon_NYC]

... and like you I could buy most of them and have them in my cellar at the same or in some cases lower prices than I paid for them almost 4 years ago.

I know very well that this issue had been posted about many times everywhere. I just hope that TSTBICAUHLPFTNDAWWRU realizes that the wines they owe us are now available at the prices they sold them to us for and that they can purchase them in the secondary market and just deliver to us. Sorry about this thread drift.

[JonB]

Speaking of WAIT, I also haven't received '05 wines from THERE. I hope others are buying '09 futures from them....

[Blanquito]

Those of you who are owed 2005 BDX futures from PC, were these unusual formats? It was the half-bottles that gave me trouble with my PC 2005 futures.

[RDD]

Danny:
The 82 Calon was very very good. Luckily I bought it fairly young and took good care of it. It sure took forever to come around but has a lot of life left.
I

[DavidG]

Still waiting on a case of regular 750s. I wouldn't be surprised to find they are in if I called them... or not. Not gonna ship this time of year anyway, so I'll call them in the fall.

[Jay Winton]

Tanzer is touting bargain shopping for 07s in his new issue. Has Calon Segur ever made a better wine than its 82?

[JimHow]

No, the '82 Calon Segur is its best wine. We had it with PappaDoc, Gio, and Arv in Chinatown a few years back, it just kept opening and opening, incredible layers of complexity.

[Ramon_NYC]

Those of you who are owed 2005 BDX futures from PC, were these unusual formats? It was the half-bottles that gave me trouble with my PC 2005 futures.

I'm waiting for all 750s.

edited to add: mix, all Right Banks.

[JonB]

I have a mix of 375s and 750s. Of one wine, they delivered the 1500s well over a year ago and haven't delivered the splits. The undelivereds includes a mix of both right and left bank. The earliest deliveries I had from them were 375s, so I don't see a pattern to their deliveries.....and checked last week via the website and none of mine shows as arrived.

[JonB]

Tanzer is touting bargain shopping for 07s in his new issue. Has Calon Segur ever made a better wine than its 82?

I just skimmed through the article, and prices remain shockingly high. E.g. the top reds reviewed (16 wines, 92-95 points) only Pontet Canet (92) and Pape Clement (92) were under $100 (according to the merchant prices linked through Wine Access).

[Jay Winton]

Tanzer is touting bargain shopping for 07s in his new issue. Has Calon Segur ever made a better wine than its 82?

I just skimmed through the article, and prices remain shockingly high. E.g. the top reds reviewed (16 wines, 92-95 points) only Pontet Canet (92) and Pape Clement (92) were under $100 (according to the merchant prices linked through Wine Access).

7 is not a good ending in Bordeaux-07, 97, 87,77,67. I remember picking up a case of 97 Baron for $300 way below the release price. It aged well over the years. Even the 97 Lynch Bages came around. Let the dumping begin..

[JimHow]

There ended up being some great sales from the 1997 vintage, a number of BWEers seemed to have had reasonably positive experiences with that vintage over the years. I wonder if there will be more Sam's-like failures in the upcoming years. I don't know about what things are like where other BWEers are living, but the economy up here in central Maine is on the verge of depression....