2010 Bdx: And the Beat Goes On...

[DavidG]

Personally, I don't think you can distill the quality of a vintage or a wine into a single number, whether it is a Parker rating or an anthocyanin level, but here we go, from Jon Rimmerman of Garagiste:



UPDATE: 2010 – This Year’s Vintage of the Century

Now What?

After 2009 was proclaimed the Vintage of the Century by pundits worldwide (a ridiculous notion), and the Bordelaise raced to charge prices that made even the most liquid investment bankers suck wind...2010 may be even better.

Yes, I’ve said it.

How can this be? I don’t even have my 2009s yet?

Take a deep breath and lets look at this scientifically.

In certain areas of the Left Bank the anthocyanins were among the highest ever recorded, far higher than 2000, 2005 or 2009 and that’s a very good thing for your cardiologist and your cellar.

Anthocyanins are the flavonoid pigments that morph into extractives noted as a carrier of color, depth, tannin (and resveratrol) – they are the basic keys to the “oomph” behind the liquid you consume and to the degree of terroir transferred to bottle. Years low in anthocyanins (such as 1997 or 2007) generally produce under-ripe and lightly colored wines with somewhat green tannins and limited ageing potential. In years such as 2000, 2005 or 2009 that number is far higher. As an example, a particularly esteemed vineyard in Margaux had anthocyanin readings in 2000 of 1765 mg/l for Merlot and 2197 mg/l for Cabernet. In 2005, a fabulously tannic and deeply gritty year, 2058mg/Merlot and 3133mg/Cabernet. In the “Vintage of the Century”, 2009? 1975mg/Merlot and 2117mg/Cabernet. What about 2010? In 2010, the Merlot was 2811 mg and the Cabernet 3343 mg – even higher than 2005 or even 1986. You can do the math but these are readings that don’t come around very often, not even in 1961.

In 2010, the berries themselves are not as pin-up perfect as in 2005 (there was significant millanderage with Merlot throughout the Right and Left Bank, uneven flowering from cold or inclement conditions) but the resulting nuggets are full of flavor and color, especially the Cabernet Sauvignon (which some are calling the finest in over 50 years). The fruit reminds many vintners of a cross between 1990, 1996, 1986 and 2005 – four vintages that will more than wake the collector from casual interest. Unlike 2009, which is what I call a “fun house” vintage (similar to 2007 in the Rhone), the fruit in 2010 has the potential to produce a modern take on masculine Cabernet Sauvignon that could be unrivaled.

2010 also had among the highest accumulated winter rainfall totals in a long time - far higher than 2000, 2005 or 2009. This is a principal of collecting moisture in the deepest reserves of the sub-soil during the winter so the vines are not stressed if particularly long periods of dry sunshine result in the summer (a good thing for grapes as long as the high temperatures are not extreme, such as in 2003). With high levels of moisture reserve, the vines can produce balanced and beautifully ripe grapes without any stress – the lower the stress, the deeper and more perfumed/nuanced the overall impression may be (just like humans). The ideal scenario is high accumulated moisture in the winter, with low accumulated moisture during the growing season and high levels of sunshine with moderate temperatures. If you have a low/low year (low winter/low summer rainfall) with balanced temperatures and sunshine (such as 2005), the wines will be structured and more tannic. A high/high year can still produce wonderful, classic wines as long as ample sunshine follows any summer rain (such as 2000). And what about the ideal scenario, the very rare high/low? That was 2010 - the highest collected rainfall in winter and the lowest accumulated rainfall during the summer of any vintage in the past decade, including 2000, 2005 and 2009 (which incidentally was what I call a medium/medium year – good winter rain and also enough summer rain to give just enough to the vines, but the temperatures in 2009 verged on being too high which produced alcohol levels out of whack with the rest of the components). Sunshine in 2010? Nearly identical to 2000 but less than 2009 so the potential alcohols are not as high (although they are not low by 1970’s standards, still in the 13.3-13.8% range).

While it is far too early and foolhardy to make any vintage proclamation based on scientific analysis and bunches of grapes (and many speculators have lost their shirt relying on formulas and charts for success), what is clear is that 2010 has the physical potential in certain areas of Bordeaux to be not only the finest vintage of the decade but it has a legitimate scientific opportunity to be among the finest vintages of the last 100.

Where its sibling 2009 was a braggart and extrovert from the start – showy and in your face, 2010 appears to have as much or even more potential stuffing but it does so in a classic Marvel comics sort of way – think 1960’s Superman or Batman. In other words, a real superhero not a joker.

Now that’s something to be excited about...

...except for all of the overvalued/undelivered 2009s that may be losing worth as I write this - a full year before delivery.

A market conundrum?

- Jon Rimmerman

[marcs]

Anthocyanin? Geez. "A legitimate scientific opportunity" to be a good vintage...got to like that, always good to drink some science.

I'm hoping 2010 turns out great though, my hope is that if enough good vintages get stacked up behind the price control wall then the cartel dam will break and we'll be swept away by a wave of good discounted juice.

[greatbxfreak]

DavidG,

I can't find this review you're quoting on Jon's website? Did you received it by email? Scientific for sure but as I work as laboratory technician in chemical laboratory, I understand the technical facts he puts forward.

I completely agree with what he's writing about history of 2010!

Anthocyanins are pigments, part of polyphenols family together with flavonoids. Antioxidants to get it easier.

And chateau owners didn't lie to me last month when I spoke to them i Bordeaux, saying 2010 has the largest index of tannin than 2000, 2005 and 2009!

[Houndsong]

"While it is far too early and foolhardy to make any vintage proclamation based on scientific analysis and bunches of grapes ..."

This is utter nonsense. It's never too early. We have a "futures" market now we need an options market too. Derivatives are the way to make money. I can see any number of derivatives linked to various points in the vintage cycle. For example, we could begin trading around the first significant winter rains. Or probably it would be better to trade around the the first forecasts of rains. Long, mid, and short range forecasts. Maybe even on La Nina/El Nino cylces.

[JimHow]

"While it is far too early and foolhardy to make any vintage proclamation based on scientific analysis and bunches of grapes ..."

This is utter nonsense. It's never too early. We have a "futures" market now we need an options market too. Derivatives are the way to make money. I can see any number of derivatives linked to various points in the vintage cycle. For example, we could begin trading around the first significant winter rains. Or probably it would be better to trade around the the first forecasts of rains. Long, mid, and short range forecasts. Maybe even on La Nina/El Nino cylces.

LOL

Actually, when we were at Opus One back in 2002, the fellow there was showing us microscopic shoots from some samples of vine in the lab that would bear fruit a couple years later and, if I'm remembering correctly, he was saying some sort of predictions could begin to be made based on those observations under the microscope.

[Houndsong]

LOL

Actually, when we were at Opus One back in 2002, the fellow there was showing us microscopic shoots from some samples of vine in the lab that would bear fruit a couple years later and, if I'm remembering correctly, he was saying some sort of predictions could begin to be made based on those observations under the microscope.

Now I'm laughing, but that's not at all absurd. I want to say it's a long time from Mendel's peas but in truth not so. Now, when they map the DNA of cab they'll be able to do so much more with selection. Can you imagine if Gregor Mendel had known Dom Perignon?

[DavidG]

GBF - this was an email forwarded to me by someone on the Garagiste list. I don't doubt the veracity of the measurements or the role of anthocyanins, and I have no problem with getting excited about a vintage early on, especially if you have tasted the wines. But I have to laugh about trying to hype wines based on an anthocyanin number before the wines are even, well, wines.

[mike reff]

I have heard similar rumors as well, we will see what happens in and around March or so about 2010. Regardless, I am done with bordeaux unless i want to fill back vintages, No reason to spend the money on another vintage of the millenium!

[DavidG]

Same here Mike. I might pick up some '09s when they hit the shelves, if there are any good values that wont take decades to come around.

[Claudius2]

Guys
From what I have read so far, it seems that the 2010 vintage will be very powerful, full bodied, very dark colour, very strong flavoured and tnanic, and probably take till 20 years after I die to be anywhere ready to drink.

Sorry to be cynical but wine is something I pour in a glass and drink.
Yes I've studied chemistry and physics, have done technical research in the wine industry and understand the science (and the pseuso-science) but what bores me is the hype around every vintage.

2000 was supposed to be great. Some felt 01 (like Clive Coartes) was even better.
Some here say 2002 is the best of the decade.
03 was a remarkable, unique vintage
04 was fresh, alive, well balanced...
05 was the best ever....

So a few days after harvest and we have at least the fouth "greatest ever" vintage (in 11 years no doubt).
Not to mention extraordinary/great/whatever vintages.

Yet I can't remember even weaker vintages being particularly cheap.
And after trying some at Wine Asia last weekend, they were rather ordinary wines.

Sometimes I am quite happy to have an old Bordeaux from a medium bodied vintage like 85 that does not require chemical analysis before I attempt to drink it.

[Comte Flaneur]

Talking of 85s I got some - very good looking - halves of Lafite '85 for $199 from a place in LI today - imho this was one of RMP's biggest ever howlers...is Lafey 85 worth that for a split? Probabably not, but I am getting resigned to the fact that I willl probably sell my cases of 1996 and 2000 - each worth a year's worth of alimony and English private school fees.

[DavidG]

Well put, Claudius. Only one quibble: This is not the 4th "Greatest Vintage Ever" out of 11. It is the 4th "Greatest Vintage Ever" out of 3.

[William P]

This is very funny stuff. Another super year that won't start to mature for another 20 years. Hell, I didn't buy much 2005 because it will take 20 years to mature. So I going to buy a vintage five years later with the same profile. Life is always an adventure.

[greatbxfreak]

2000, 2005, 2009 and 2010 - not bad at all.

2002, 2004 and 2008 - cheap ones. 2008 seems like a great bargain now as I tasted some last month and they are developing better and better. Lafite 2008 - bought 2 bottles á 180 € all taxes included primeur. And 2 btl of Latour, Mouton R., Haut Brion and Margaux and 165-170 €. You'll never see these prices again, believe me.

2000 Montrose bought primeur at 60 Euros, tasted 2 months ago - what a fantastic wine and a phenomenal tribute to the vintage.

I prefer now 2004 to 2001 - here Bob was totally wrong on the potential of the vintage (2004). Every wine I've tasted recently is incredibly aromatic and tannins are melted together with the fruit.

2003 - Bordeaux admits that this vintage is licorice in many places and that these dry tannins will shorten many wines' life. I'm not findinding it interesting at all. I think 2005 and 2009 outshined it and 2010 will do the same.

2010 - the question is how winemakers will cope with high tannins. They're ripe and fat. As grapes were small, there was concentrated juice as well, so everything lies in careful maceration trying to balance fruit and tannin.

I'm 64 years old now and I bought some bottles primeur 2009 and I expect to buy some of 2010. I hope to reach the age of 85-90 and drink myself insane sitting in wheel-chair or still standing!

[JimHow]

Lafite 2008 - bought 2 bottles á 180 € all taxes included primeur.

What does that translate to in U.S. dollars?

We may actually be able to buy a few bottles of first growths!

[DavidG]

180 Euro is about $250. I don't know from the post if that was the total for 2 bottles or a per bottle price.

[greatbxfreak]

180€ per bottle.

[DavidG]

We ahven't seen prices for FGs that approachable since the '04s, I believe.

[JimHow]

If I can get 2008 Lafite for $250 per bottle, put me down for a case.

[marcs]

Lowest price winesearcher is showing globally for 2008 Lafite is about $1200 a bottle, and Farr Vintners has a case price close to $2000 a bottle, so $250 would indeed be quite the "deal".

[Claudius2]

Guys
Lafite R here was about $SNG 1500 on first tranche (about $US1100)
Thirs tranche a day later was $SNG 2480 and it still sold out.

The prices quoted above are thus cheap if you look at relativities.

GBF
I bought numerous cases of 09s - Montrose, Malescot, Calon Segur, Priure Lichine, St Pierre, Dominique, L'arosse, La Lagune, Domaine Chevalier, Beausejour Becot, Fonroque, Clos Oratoire, La Confession, Giscours, Larcis Ducasse, D'armailhac, D'Issan, Branaire Ducru.
However, I am coming to a realisation that there is little point any more buying the really heavily tannic vintages.

An example is 86 - these wines will last for decades longer and in the last few years have really only started to open (at ssuper second and 1er cru level anyway).
So I have also bought more wines that will be drinkable younger (okay with a few exceptions like Montrose) and I get the impression that 2010 will be a condiderably more tannic year.

As for prices, the lesser vintages may have been relatively cheap in the UK or USA but beleive me, they were not cheap in Australia or Singapore.

After a relatively dull period in Bordeaux between 1990 and 2000, the vintages have generally been pretty good in Bordeaux from 2000 onward - I'd say 07 is the weakest based on refent experience. But the PR machine does get to me after a while!

[JonoB]

08 Lafite is trading for similar prices to 09 on liv-ex now!!

Ian that was a great wine 85 Lafite... I like 85 as a whole.

I hope Bob gets 2010 completely wrong... Because it is my anniversary wine now and I need to buy lots, but there are always other regions to get stuck into if I need to... Like Piemonte and Burgundy, etc. I can't wait for the spending spree.

Bought a case of 94 Gramolere Manzoni G for £260 all in yesterday. About £22 a bottle, about $30 a bottle if not a bit less I think!! Speaking of bargains.

[Claudius2]

Jono
Isn't every year your anniversary??

[JonoB]

I hope not... How much is at going to cost me in cases of Mouton for the other half...

[conrado]

Guys
From what I have read so far, it seems that the 2010 vintage will be very powerful, full bodied, very dark colour, very strong flavoured and tnanic, and probably take till 20 years after I die to be anywhere ready to drink.

Sorry to be cynical but wine is something I pour in a glass and drink.
Yes I've studied chemistry and physics, have done technical research in the wine industry and understand the science (and the pseuso-science) but what bores me is the hype around every vintage.

2000 was supposed to be great. Some felt 01 (like Clive Coartes) was even better.
Some here say 2002 is the best of the decade.
03 was a remarkable, unique vintage
04 was fresh, alive, well balanced...
05 was the best ever....

So a few days after harvest and we have at least the fouth "greatest ever" vintage (in 11 years no doubt).
Not to mention extraordinary/great/whatever vintages.

Yet I can't remember even weaker vintages being particularly cheap.
And after trying some at Wine Asia last weekend, they were rather ordinary wines.

Sometimes I am quite happy to have an old Bordeaux from a medium bodied vintage like 85 that does not require chemical analysis before I attempt to drink it.

03 does have a unique taste, one of the best in my opinion..09 is looking to be another good vintage, probably 'the best in decades' as Robert Parker puts it. Have a look at this

http://www.wineinvestmentadvice.com/pre ... ets_promo/

[DavidG]

Welcome aboard Conrado, I think. That looks kinda like an ad for investing in '09 Bdx. Do you have a financial interest in that? Or have you just been an investor yourself? I'm the last guy to take investment advice from, but '09 Bdx does NOT sound like a good investment to me.

[marcs]

If you're an actual wine drinker, those people Conrado linked to are basically the devil. I like the selling point that wine investmment gives "personal ownership of tangible asset". I would hate to be constantly tempted to drink up my retirement fund..."oh, honey, we're having steak tonight, let's see if any of our portfolio has entered its drinking window". Then there's the need to constantly rebalance the portfolio to make sure none of your assets are starting to lose their fruit and get secondary flavors less valued on the world market.

Bordeaux investment seems to be entering that phase of the bubble where it has dissociated from any reasonable explanation of value beyond the fact that other people will pay crazy $ for the asset. Winesearcher is full of proven great Bordeaux from 1990-2005 selling at prices less than or equal to the 2009 futures price, all closer to drinkability too. Of course, they are crazy overpriced too from my middle classs perspective, but if I think even if I was a rich person and quality was my only object I would see little real need to load up on 2009.

[JonoB]

Unless marcs, it was an anniversary vintage or child's birth year, or you love Sauternes... Having said that despite loving Bordeaux, there are plenty of great alternatives to Cabernet and Merlot!

[DavidG]

A few years back, there was some very negative publicity about some shady London-based Bdx wine funds that had gone belly-up. Even if investing with a legitimate business, I can't imagine '09 futures as being a good investment. I do wish I'd bought cases of '08 Lafite at GBF's price of E180/btl, but then I also wish I'd invested heavily in MSFT in the '80s...

[JonoB]

David, don't we all think that about Lafite? The price is insane and as the wine is not yet in circulation, founded on complete and utter hype! I thought I was quids in when my 6 of 08 Mouton started to spiral on the thought of e label being painted by a Chinese artist, and my thoughts went from drink to sell... Havi seen what happened to Lafite, I've lost hope and gone back to drink the mouton, sell the duhart!

Duhart is now half the price of most vintages of Carruades! Scary proposition.... But makes my 08s an easy sell.