President Trump

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:21 pm

JimHow wrote:I have Orange winning it straight out in part because he is doing so well in PA and MN, two bellwether states.
PA for the Democrats is like FL for the Republicans.
You can still lose if you win those respective states, but you can’t win if you lose those states (PA for Dems, FL for GOP).
And the fact that MN is in play is a terrible harbinger for November.

I’m putting hope in the courts — ultimately John Roberts — to save the country.
It is in the state legislatures where we are going to have trouble, when states don’t submit their electoral college votes by the December deadline and neither candidate gets to 270 and then it goes to the House, where we lose.

Or the Surgeon General can declare Medical Martial Law and postpone the election since it would be a disease spreading event. They just used the CDC to suspend all evictions nationally under that view, since being evicted is a disease spreading event.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:24 pm

JimHow wrote:I have Orange winning it straight out in part because he is doing so well in PA and MN, two bellwether states.
PA for the Democrats is like FL for the Republicans.
You can still lose if you win those respective states, but you can’t win if you lose those states (PA for Dems, FL for GOP).
And the fact that MN is in play is a terrible harbinger for November.

I’m putting hope in the courts — ultimately John Roberts — to save the country.
It is in the state legislatures where we are going to have trouble, when states don’t submit their electoral college votes by the December deadline and neither candidate gets to 270 and then it goes to the House, where we lose.

Jim, so are you certain that atleast 25 states out of 50 will vote for Trump if it goes to the house? Then Roberts or SC can’t do anything before or after the house vote, if it goes there...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:32 pm

Yes, CV, I believe 25 states are majority Republican, and I think PA is even, if I'm not mistaken?
Then, each state gets ONE vote in the House.
There is no question we lose if it gets to the House, even though the Democrats have a strong majority in the House.
It is going to be 1876 again, where you have states submitting alternate electoral college votes to the House.

I think where the courts may get involved is in the counting of the ballots.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:36 pm

But I think you only need a few states to not present their electoral college votes by December 13(?).
Say, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Florida.
Once nobody has 270, it goes to the House.
And once it goes to the House, we lose.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:38 pm

December 23rd is the deadline.
Then the votes are counted by a joint session of Congress at 1pm on January 6th.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:46 pm

And then... may heaven help us all....

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:04 pm

JimHow wrote:But I think you only need a few states to not present their electoral college votes by December 13(?).
Say, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Florida.
Once nobody has 270, it goes to the House.
And once it goes to the House, we lose.

And Vice presidency too as Senate gets to pick the post...

SC can’t stop state legislatures from not presenting the electoral votes, and when the issue goes to House and Senate, SC can’t stop the congress from picking whoever they want for presidency and vice presidency... I don’t see SC playing any role in stopping this coup d’état on democracy.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:18 pm

JimHow wrote:But I think you only need a few states to not present their electoral college votes by December 13(?).
Say, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Florida.
Once nobody has 270, it goes to the House.
And once it goes to the House, we lose.

The state legislatures favor Republicans 26 to 23, with a tie in PA...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:33 pm

SC can’t stop state legislatures from not presenting the electoral votes, and when the issue goes to House and Senate, SC can’t stop the congress from picking whoever they want for presidency and vice presidency... I don’t see SC playing any role in stopping this coup d’état on democracy.

You may be right. I think if the vote gets counted, though, events may take over.
If that House-vote doomsday scenario occurs after votes have been counted with U.S. Supreme Court sanction, then we are truly going to have a civil war.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:18 pm

JimHow wrote:Yes, CV, I believe 25 states are majority Republican, and I think PA is even, if I'm not mistaken?
Then, each state gets ONE vote in the House.
There is no question we lose if it gets to the House, even though the Democrats have a strong majority in the House.
It is going to be 1876 again, where you have states submitting alternate electoral college votes to the House.

I think where the courts may get involved is in the counting of the ballots.

Maybe the lawyers can explain this...

If the house gets to decide who they can pick the president in case no one gets the majority, why is that each state has only ONE vote, irrespective of the size and population? Isn’t it dilution of vote, where people from state of Montana have voting power many more times than the people from the state of California? (One can argue electoral college is similar, but the electoral college doesn’t dilute as grossly as each state getting only ONE vote in house).

In 64, didn’t Supreme Court in ‘Reynolds vs. Sims’ rule that states cannot interfere or dilute the weight of peoples’ vote? How does then each state getting ONE vote, which is dilution of the weight of peoples’ vote to the fullest, can be squared with SC’s ruling? Is it so because it is in the constitution in the first place? Then what if something is in the constitution that can run contrary to some other thing in the constitution?

Why not House of Representatives and Senators get to pick the president? Afterall, that’s how you get 538 in the first place. (Again, some might argue it’s akin to parliamentary system, but it’s better than one state, one vote system in the house).

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:50 pm

I think it starts with Hamilton's Federalist #68, but that provision is in the Constitution, it must be in article II somewhere.
The House has picked the president 3 times before, this is nothing new. It's all about the states. We have as much of a say in Maine as big bad California and New York.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:41 pm

You both may be correct, and it goes to the House where they try to give it to Trump. But if Biden is clearly the winner once mail-in ballots are counted (please, oh please let it be obvious before that!) and the GOP tries to usher this House strategy through under the guise of voter fraud, I don't see how this doesn't lead to civil war.

I have never owned a gun, in fact I've only shot a gun once (and it was a 22) and that was over 25 years ago, but for the first time in my life I'm wondering if maybe I should get one.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:46 pm

Great piece in the NYT yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/opin ... cracy.html

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:33 pm

Blanquito wrote:You both may be correct, and it goes to the House where they try to give it to Trump. But if Biden is clearly the winner once mail-in ballots are counted (please, oh please let it be obvious before that!) and the GOP tries to usher this House strategy through under the guise of voter fraud, I don't see how this doesn't lead to civil war.

I have never owned a gun, in fact I've only shot a gun once (and it was a 22) and that was over 25 years ago, but for the first time in my life I'm wondering if maybe I should get one.

Its not just the gun, its ammo too, which is scarcer than Juge now

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:42 pm

I know, but what does "civil war"mean?
There will be huge marches in Washington, there will be riots, etc.
But the military won't get involved. And the right is far more armed than we are.
If the House gives it to Orange Head -- a real possibility -- we are stuck with him for as long as he wants to stay in there.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:56 pm

And by the way, what are we going to do if we buy some guns at Walmart.
Are we like going to shoot people and go to prison for 99 years?
Of course not.
We're going to do what we are doing now, bitching about it, and we'll keep looking at the latest wine auction prices, etc.

The Dems should try to shut down the government, but as the days pass that won't happen...

We are headed just for an elevated level of dystopia, none of this happens like overnight.
There's not going to be some tearing down of the wall, or anally protruding Kadahfi, or finding Saddam in a hole.
It's going to be worse... You're going to see subtle erosions of civil rights, and the first amendment, and The Atlantic and NYT will go under, and there will be too many mosquitoes, and... on and on... It's going to happen slow.. Subtly... painfully.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:13 am

You could be right Jim, that we basically roll over, but I think there’s a real chance as well that the rioting doesn’t stop, that people refuse to pay taxes, that the military eventually DOES become involved or at least the national guard, that blue states vote to succeed from the Union and tell all those redneck southern states to fuck off, etc.

We can turn this around — what can Trump do if California decides to declare independence?

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:25 am

Blanquito wrote: .
.
.
We can turn this around — what can Trump do if California decides to declare independence?

He is gonna build a wall to keep Californians out and make California pay for the wall...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:29 am

So if California secedes, what is going to happen to the social security fund?
And how do we divide the debt?
And what about all the federal laws that govern the daily lives of Californians?
What is the California plan for "national" defense.
And on... and on... and on....

Come on, man.

Let's face it. What has been going on in this country for the past 40+ years has finally come home to roost.

We are so fucked.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:46 am

>>
We are so fucked.
>>

Actually, the privileged class that dominates this board will mostly do fine. Our 401(k) accounts will continue to go up and most of us have secure jobs. Fancy wines will still be available, as will be oysters and lobsters and caviar and prime beef. In addition to minorities, the lower middle class will be fucked. (The lower class is always fucked in this country.) Strangely enough, the base of tRump's support is from the lower middle class.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:51 am

I hope your wrong Jim. I hope a sizable majority of Americans will refuse to let their democracy die right before there eyes and do absolutely nothing about it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:57 am

So we just had an important primary up here in New England.
Incumbent Ed Markey beat the Kennedy boy in a Senate primary.
Probably the right choice.
My aunt and uncle who live in the Berkshires -- a couple of intellectuals who are well into their 80s now -- they voted early, by mail-in, absentee ballot. Their ballot was tracked, like a UPS wine delivery. They went on the Mass. Secretary of State website, tracked their votes, got a confirmation on line that their ballots were received and accepted.
The results of the election were announced fairly quickly on primary election night.

What the fuck is so hard about this?
Why can't the rest of you shitholes be like us here in New England, where we just fucking vote, there's no drama, Jesus h. christ what is wrong with the rest of you assholes out there?

So... Here is my prayer:

It is the evening of November 3rd.
All this angst about mail in ballots turns into nothing.
All the votes in PA, and WI, and FL are counted fairly quickly, just like this past week in Massachusetts.

And everyone, including Orange, will have been wrong, and all this angst about mail in votes will have been for nothing.

I can assure you, I have ZERO concerns about election integrity here in Maine, or in the second CD, where Orange seems to be winning.

But then again, I'm in Maine. New England. We are adults here. All of you assholes from shit-hole states are bringing the rest of us from New England down.

Seriously, and I'm not even joking here, your states are all pathetic. It's 2020, and you can't run a simple fucking election.

OMG you guys are so, so fucking pathetic.

You guys should just let us from Maine monitor your elections.

I come from a small state, yet we have produced the likes of Bill Cohen, George Mitchell, Margaret Chase Smith, Ed Muskie, Olympia Snowe, Angus King.

You assholes give us Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, and Lindsey Graham.

Jesus Christ. Get away from us! You are vile. Just get the fuck away from us.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:10 am

My favorite Maine'er (other than JimHow)

You might remember Anna from the classics 'Pitch Perfect' I, II, & III

(and the T mobile commercials)

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:37 am

Apropos of today’s (bleak) commentary, just reading a New Yorker article (it’s worth a read) about what happens if Trump tries to steal the election. In one part of the article, they talk about these ‘war games’ being played as we speak, with former DC bigwigs participating, to try and game out what will happen, and I read this:
“end of [one] scenario, Podesta, the former Clinton campaign chairman, called on California, Oregon, and Washington to secede from the Union.“

https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign ... ter-recirc

tim · Post by **tim** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:08 am

While I understand the love for one's home state, I'd like to note that California has 50x the GDP of Maine. And the same number of Senators.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:38 pm

That was a great albeit disturbing article in the New Yorker.

As for this Atlantic business, the thing that hurts Orange Head is that even though they are unnamed sources and he can deny the statements all he wants, everybody in the world has seen him say and do things that are corroborative. It’s like yeah, my Republican friends, riiight, it’s soooo impossible that he said these things. <rolling eyes>

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:51 pm

Timmy: Our country is called the United STATES of America.
When it was formed we were 13 separate colonies, each with their own separate interests.
After some stops and starts at unification, and the failed articles of confederation, in order to unite the separate governmental entities representatives from each arrived in Philadelphia and held a constitutional convention.
And after much deliberation and debate one hot summer, the delegates to the convention reached an agreement in a document called a constitution. The constitution was presented to the people of each of the former colonies, and much further debate and strife occurred as each ratified it.
And ratification was based on agreement and subjection to the terms of the constitution, one of those principles being a compromise between representative government and the sovereignty of the states, large and small.
Thank the founders that there are at least some restraints on the powers of larger states like Florida, Texas, and even California on the way we live here in Maine and New England.

tim · Post by **tim** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:09 pm

Jimmy,

The amazing document, as written by our founders:

1. Had Senators elected by state legislators, not by the voters;
2. Allowed states to determine eligibility to vote, including property ownership requirements: only white men of means were allowed to participate in democracy;
3. Determined the number of representatives based on counting 3/5's of a slave as part of a population;
4. To this day allows for districts to be drawn to ensure the election of a particular party (politicians choose the voter, not voter choose the politician);
5. Authorized humans to be bought and sold as slaves.

Forgive me if I am not in awe of what the founders intended. There comes a time to recognize that society changes, and that laws that are designed to disenfranchise one set of citizens in favor of another need to be changed.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:19 pm

Of course things change, but the document, like the 1855 classification, has still stood us in fairly good stead for over 200 years.
And you'll pardon me if I'm reluctant to let big states like NY, FL, TX, and CA have a bigger say on how we live here in ME and New England, you all have such inspirational governments out there.
If you want a new constitutional convention then round up the required 34 states, convene in a convention, and then present the proposed new constitution to Maine and the other states, and we'll decide whether it is in our best interests to endorse it.
There is a method to do what you want to do.
Actually, a constitutional convention is coming, but I don't think you're going to like it.
So be careful what you ask for!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:33 pm

I realize I’m being a little contrarian here because I am as frustrated as you by the fact that the electoral college at this place and time happens to be unfair to my side. And I think there are going to be bigger problems developing if we continue to have the winner of the popular vote losing the election. But we can’t just “eliminate the electoral college” just because that’s what our side wants. And even though it is harming my candidates (Silver says Joe will lose the EC if he wins the popular vote by “only” 2-3 percentage points), I’m still not sure I’m excited about a system that gives even more power to the big states than they already have over the rest of us.

tim · Post by **tim** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:21 pm

I see it a bit differently. I agree that California should not dictate how Maine catches lobsters. But what we have today is precisely the opposite: voters in small states directing what happens in big states.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:00 pm

I agree with Tim, but it’s easier to bitch about it than change it.

What if we stop paying taxes? Probably less jail time than for violence in the streets.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:07 pm

The big states have many times greater power in American government policy, laws, PORK, than we smaller, less wealthy states.
California legislators DO impact the Maine lobster industry.
Sorry, Timmy, I'm not crying a river that the big states are suffering under the current system.
Going to a mere popular vote count would move even more power into the hands of the big states.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:10 pm

I just filled out my application for an absentee ballot here in Maine, seems very easy, very traceable, I have a confirmation number, email confirmation, etc.
A ballot is supposed to be mailed to my home address around October 2nd. This doesn't seem very difficult.
I posted the Maine statute on my Facebook page which states that voting twice is a felony. My Republican friends are freaking out.
Methinks they doth protest too much.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:34 pm

Here in MD our Republican governor has decided that we have to request a mail-in ballot rather than simply sending one automatically to all registered voters. If you don’t have a computer you have to request it by mail. If you even are aware that you have to request it. I filled out my online application over a month ago. Not straightforward or easy. Had to have a driver license number or some other ID. Got a confirmation screen but no number, then a few weeks later an email that it was "in process." No idea when it will arrive.

Meanwhile, we all got a registration card in the mail which many people incorrectly believe is an indication that they will get a mail-in ballot. They won’t without applying.

I hope Trump's dumbass zealots try voting twice and go to jail for it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:56 pm

Watching a Florida newspaper reporter right now talking about the Florida mail-in and early voting system.
Seems like he really knows what he's talking about. He answered a lot of questions I have had.
The thing about mail in voting is that they get recorded into the system as they are received.
So the computers calculate those received mail in ballots almost immediately when the polls close at 7:00 p.m.
(I'm assuming Florida still has voting an hour later on the west coast.)
Also, there is a robust 8 day early voting period in Florida, and those votes are likewise logged in and counted when the polls close.
This reporter believes that we will have upwards of 75% of the vote totals being reported in Florida not long after 7pm, and that we should know the winner of Florida by 9pm.
Which, by the way, is how we usually get the Florida results, except for in 2000.
This is a good thing, and it confirms what I suspect is going to be the case in Florida, Maine, and most other states on election night.
There were election fiascos in a few places like Iowa and Georgia during the the primary/caucus season this year -- I think it took like 2 weeks in New York to resolve some races -- but I am hopeful that our state election systems can count the mail-in votes on election night.

I don't understand why things are so difficult in Maryland, David. It literally took me 5 minutes to fill in my application with the Maine Secretary of State. They are now going to forward it to my local municipality, who in turn are going to confirm my name, address, DOB, and mail me a ballot. I have voted in Maine since 1976, I have myself run in 4 elections, not once have we seen even a hint of controversy, long lines, etc. I just don't get it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:59 pm

I wonder where Florida is at in allowing felons to vote?
Are they still barred if they have outstanding fines, etc., or did the Florida courts resolve that issue?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:00 pm

Of course, Trump is surging in Florida, so I'm not holding my breath for victory there.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:02 pm

JimHow wrote:The big states have many times greater power in American government policy, laws, PORK, than we smaller, less wealthy states.
California legislators DO impact the Maine lobster industry.
Sorry, Timmy, I'm not crying a river that the big states are suffering under the current system.
Going to a mere popular vote count would move even more power into the hands of the big states.

Hmmm.... Interesting take, but can't hold any water in my book...

I lived in both a small state and a big state. I lived in the bible belt and on the west coast. I lived in the midwest and in the mid atlantic...The facts are completely different with regards to which states have more power. It's not about the bigger state or smaller state, it's also about which state when considered per capita has more power..

If one looks a deep dive in numbers, states like NY, CA and other states outrightly contribute more funds to federal government (statewise or per capita wise in many cases) than the small states. Small states are net takers than net providers when it comes to federal distribution of funds from the coffers whether we are talking about medicare or otherwise...And I am ok with that. Afterall, if you are one family, someone will have less and someone will have more and you share resources so that everyone is better-off. What pisses me is the politicization of big states vs small states in DC., and withholding of funds for big states (under federal emergency conditions also) by some senator from a net taker state...

If you believe SC does impact the lives of the Americans, then you have to believe small states have proportionately more power in the say at the top court. Afterall the house might reflect the state size makeup (impacting Maine lobster industry), but as you know each state has 2 senators and that fact also disproportionately impacts what is dear to big states...

I am not for one advocating for popular vote, but I am atleast acknowledging that big states do suffer under the current system. I am not gonna lookway and pretend otherwise...

I consider the current system as give and take so that small states gain/lose something in return for big states gaining/losing something in other areas.

And when it comes to PORK, really? I wonder where that 'bridge to nowhere', posture child for ultimate pork, was...

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:08 pm

JimHow wrote:I just filled out my application for an absentee ballot here in Maine, seems very easy, very traceable, I have a confirmation number, email confirmation, etc.
A ballot is supposed to be mailed to my home address around October 2nd. This doesn't seem very difficult.
I posted the Maine statute on my Facebook page which states that voting twice is a felony. My Republican friends are freaking out.
Methinks they doth protest too much.

I always voted by mail. I receive the ballot, fill it in, but I don't mail it. I just drop it at local library where they have a booth for people to drop them. Isn't it better, no? Why bother about postal service?