It is restarted

[Nicklasss]

So 28 days, from Oct 1st to 28th, to stay isolated with your little family only.

The second wave is started, and up to now, politician speeches have been more scary than the reality.

Let's go on.

Nic

[William P]

Sorry Nic.

bill

[jal]

Aaaah. Sorry Nicolas

[JimHow]

I’ve lost something in the translation.

[jal]

Lockdown in Quebec, Jim

https://globalnews.ca/news/7363360/queb ... -montreal/

[JimHow]

Ugh.

[AlexR]

It's started here too, only the people in power are pussyfooting around admitting it.

AR

[jckba]

Sorry to hear Nick

And try and take solace in the things you can control; like the planning of your daily wine selection

[stefan]

Stay safe, Nic.

[dstgolf]

Nic,

Just heard tonights announcement that restaurants indoors closed and if you're in a red zone can't travel to an orange zone but hunters exempt if you carry your own food. Are you still going? We've cancelled our Charlevoix trip and rebooked for last week of Sept 2021 so just watch the colours change which has been incredible this fall with the trees ablaze in vibrant colours instead of going up in flames like Napa. These are some pictures I've taken on my luncheon walks behind our hospital.


https://photos.app.goo.gl/KeSUGFArWRVmiysz5

[JimHow]

is the peak early this year? Usually it is around Oct 10 here in Maine, it seems like it has peaked in the past day or two, which seems crazy to me. We lost a lot of leaves today from wind and rain.

[Nicklasss]

Dstgolf, yes we're still going moose hunting this weekend. As Natives, i think we will be allowed in any conditions. But my brother being in a red zone, we will be extremely careful respecting the known recommendations.

Yesterday, the Governement announced that in red zones, as you're not allowed to any gatherings, now the police will have the right to enter houses and give 1000$ fines to the participants! Now, i guess, they went to far and they won't have my vote next time. I'm totally against that as it has never been allowed before, the law was clear. When they annouced that yesterday, i immediately thought "Welcome to China". And i guess Québec people will react a bit like Hong Kong...

I know covid is contagious and will kill people with "specific conditions", but with <1 % death rate for people contaminated (compared to 10 % for spanish flu), i think the Governement is going a bit too far.

If you have one of those Google intelligent speaker, ask to it what is Covid 19. You'll be amazed of the answer, coming from the World Health Organization.

Nic

[DavidG]

Nic, I can’t comment on the wisdom of the Quebec laws as I don’t know any of the details. Nor do I know how bad the spread is there or how compliant people have been with prior distancing and gathering recommendations.

I will point out that COVID can kill people without other diseases. It can also be spread by the asymptomatic and mildly affected to those most vulnerable. There are clear connections between large gatherings and spread of the disease.

Also, your estimate of the case fatality rate for COVID is low. Hopkins says it currently stands at 5.8% in Canada:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

We don’t yet know what percentage of COVID survivors will have permanent lung damage or other long-term sequelae that will significantly impair their functioning.

[jal]

In any case, having the police come into your house strikes me as:
A violation of privacy
A danger to the policemen/policewomen in case someone in the house is infected.

[Nicklasss]

Hi David.

The statistics can be look/calculated in different ways, so i won't go that way (especially if you considered that probably a low ratio of covid cases have been detected, according to blood banks). My point is that I'm very sad that my Governement allows quick "tv mandate" (or warrant, i don't know which word fits better) to enter houses and give fines. I think this is a bit scary vs our liberties and rights. I think it is very bad, especially that the kids (and especially teenagers) and manifestants are not respecting the recommendations, and are an important vector of transmission.

And i'm just wondering, what's next?

Nic

[Nicklasss]

Imagine if someone can demonstrate that a tiny part of covid contamination is coming from european wines...

Nic

[DavidG]

Nic, I share your concern about warrentless entry. That's bad. As I said, I don't know the details of the law, but COVID risk certainly doesn't reach the level of "exigent circumstances" where there is immediate risk to life that would justify entering a residence without a warrant.

I was only commenting on the statistics and risks. The denominator is not necessarily any more accurate for past epi/pandemics than it is for COVID.

[marcs]

In any case, having the police come into your house strikes me as:
A violation of privacy
A danger to the policemen/policewomen in case someone in the house is infected.

Arresting people for minor violations of social distancing rules is IMO terrible -- from both a civil liberties and harm reduction perspective (the arrest and incarceration process is likely to spread Covid much more than any violation). I don't think there is any previous example in human history where mandatory quarantine has been used to try to lock down entire cities of people who did NOT have the disease for this length of time (we are now going on 10 months of lockdown interventions). Medieval plague quarantines (and the plague was MUCH MUCH more dangerous than Covid, no comparison) were targeted at travelers from infested regions (like quarantine for arrivals at an airport) or else at people who had the disease and their families.

[DavidG]

I agree with the premise that incarcerating people is a terrible idea. I thought Quebec was fining violators $1000, not arresting or incarcerating them.

Hard to compare medieval plague to the current situation. Travel is a much more effective "vector" now than it was then. Asymptomatic carriers are more likely to transmit COVID than Yersinia pestis, which had limited human-to-human transmission in the first place, which when it did occur was via direct and close contact with someone who was obviously infected (e.g. they have pneumonic plague and are coughing).