Bordeaux Wine Enthusiasts

Democrat. His father was a Democratic governor of New York as well.

Governor of Maine just issued stay at home order through April 30.

Hey Chris, a great story about your brother in today's Lewiston Sun Journal:

https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/04/01/p ... -pandemic/

Thanks for forwarding the story Jim. Good read and unbelievable how this has become all hands on deck everywhere with people either voluntarily or forced to step up to the plate to serve just like going to war.

That was a nice story about Charley.

I plan to share my bottle of Latour with my brothers and my dad as soon as this pandemic is past us.

Tomorrow I'm opening my '85 Margaux and I plan to give my dad 100ml or so. I have a Sutter Home 125ml bottle ready for the exchange.
He came by my shop today to drop off the bottle, wearing a plain dust mask - better than nothing which is what I'm using so far.

Very nice story. Chris you should be proud.

I watched a video of a couple playing chess with filled wine glasses for playing pieces. Each time a piece was taken the taker got to drink the wine from that glass.

Even pushing Orange Head off the top of the front page....

I have a friend who is a manager at a large payroll company here in Maine. Very successful guy. A pretty tough guy business-wise.

His texts to me this evening:

"My payroll clients and their employees are calling me and emailing me and already flat broke..."

"Like down to change under the car seat broke."

""That's not humane. That is horrible."

"Even during the depression you could go out and try to make a buck."

People in the streets of places like Lewiston do not know where their next meal is coming from.
And we're only at the "beginning of the upward curve" according to the politicians and experts who have plenty of assets upon which to survive this?

Docs... I love you guys. But somebody better figure something out quick, or there's going to be trouble real soon.

This ain't CNN, guys, this is reality on the streets.

Sincerely,
JimHow from Lewiston, Maine

What drives me crazy are people who do not follow the social distancing recommendations and political leaders who do not demand that they be followed. The more people that follow, the faster we can get the economy moving.

I hear you Jim. One of the sad facts about medicine is that there are a lot of things we can’t cure or even treat adequately. Until we get this virus under control, with whatever medical and non-medical interventions we have in our toolbox, there will be massive suffering.

Ok, this is at once enlightening, terrifying and very positive.

https://youtu.be/I5-dI74zxPg

This is a very detailed impressive interactive graph you can play with. Try the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Stu

Stu
Pretty useful model.
I put in as much known data as I could for my adopted country (Singapore).
Our total population is about 5.6M and about 1M are work pass holders (here on temporary and/or employment linked visas).
Luckily the death rate has been very low (only a handful of deaths so far) but the place is still largely in lockdown.

That simulator produces some pretty apocalyptic numbers for the U.S. absent aggressive intervention to reduce transmission -- about one to two million dead if the fatality rate is kept between one-half of 1% and 1% through the provision of medical treatment, or five to ten million dead if the hospital system gets overwhelmed and the fatality rate goes up to 3 to 5 percent as we have seen in situations where treatment is not available. Of course those fatality rates are to some degree guesswork at this point but they are consistent with a good amount of evidence.

This is without any quarantines or social distancing, or if such measures are dropped before effective treatment or vaccination is available.

The estimates today indicate that distancing is blunting the spike. The next question is what happens when there is less distancing. A lot will depend on how long we can tolerate it, how far down the right side of the curve we are when we relax, and how much we relax. My feeling is that the next spike can be turned into a gentle hill if we all wear masks as the distancing is relaxed.

Here’s an interesting interview of Dr. Fauci by the Editor of JAMA, posted yesterday. Not too much medical jargon.
https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/ ... r/18437872