President Trump

[marcs]

Glad to hear that Dave! Welcome to wonderful world of Bernie Bros!

[JimHow]

I know!
When we see him we will do some chest bumping!

[DavidG]

There are still some things about Sanders that bother me but the biggest worry is whether he can beat Trump and the R onslaught. Being able to win D primaries is not in and of itself reassuring that he'll be able to energize the less-interested to come out and vote. But I'm starting to think he might be able to do that. This Washington Post article by Robert Reich is an interesting take.https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... st-choice/

[felixp21]

I'm def voting Trump!!!!!!!
When talking to the press about C0vid-19 measures, he was asked how many masks the Govt as secured as emergency supply. His reply "lots of masks"
hahahaha, seriously, I LOVE this lunatic!!!!

[DavidG]

I think he talked more about the stock market than Coronavirus during his press conference. At least someone convinced him to let the experts speak.

[Blanquito]

There are still some things about Sanders that bother me but the biggest worry is whether he can beat Trump and the R onslaught. Being able to win D primaries is not in and of itself reassuring that he'll be able to energize the less-interested to come out and vote. But I'm starting to think he might be able to do that./

Not surprisingly, I agree completely on all counts.

[stefan]

tRump's best quote of the day was

"I think the financial markets are very upset when they look at the Democrat candidates standing on that stage making fools out of themselves."

These last three days have forced me to dust off my backup retirement plan.

[Comte Flaneur]

I am watching this tragic spectacle from afar.

If Bernie gets the nomination he will be burnt at the stake as a socialist and it might be like Nixon McGovern

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563/soc ... ities.aspx

And Bloomberg seems to be losing momentum as Biden seems to be so bereft on anything resembling energy or pizzazz.

However the Trump-virus-stock market dynamic opens up a new imponderable..

My bet is that Trump starts tweeting the Fed to ease and the Fed capitulates, a pathetic state of affairs

[jal]

Ian, another 15-20% down on the equity markets and the Fed will ease regardless of what Trump says. At most that will steepen the yield curve a bit, but I don't see how a Fed ease can help with the pandemic.
In my opinion, the market is seeing the pandemic as increasing the possibility of a global recession, which in turn may help Sanders get elected. A double whammy of pessimism for the markets.

[Comte Flaneur]

Yes indeed Jacques, though I think a fiscal policy response would be likely too.

Meanwhile, CNN reports that according to a recent survey 38% of Americans would not buy Corona beer “under any circumstances”

[marcs]

I don't see how easing addresses the fundamental dynamics of what is driving the market lower now. We have to get out of this macroeconomic strategy of just inflating the markets. And I say this as someone who is going to have to work a couple of years longer based on what has happened to my retirement accounts over just the last week.

One thing, re the subject of this thread -- with this epidemic we are about to pay a big cost in human life for having President Trump now. I never believed the dude was a Nazi or a Putin sleeper agent or any of that stuff, I thought all that was bullshit, but he IS extremely craven, selfish, short-sighted, and highly incompetent at all of the nuts and bolts of running a government. Now is the time we pay the price for that.

[Comte Flaneur]

Here are my thoughts Jacques and Marcus

Covid-19: Corporate recession risks opens up two-pronged vulnerability for Trump

Experts in the field of disease control have, for some time now, predicted that it was just a question of when rather than if the WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic, so it should have come as no surprise that the WHO confirmed this today, and that the virus has spread more widely across the globe, and for many western investors, closer to home.

But this did not prevent the mood in markets swinging from complacency to panic, fuelled by central bank comments this week indicating a preference for jumping later rather than earlier to gauge the impact of the virus in the data. For those central banks that have any bullets left it is not as if these are encased in silver and firing them might make the virus, and the disruption it is causing, miraculously disappear.

The virus threat is likely to require a carefully thought out policy response centred on fiscal tools, supplemented by monetary measures, rather than the other way round. The key risk lies in the US corporate sector, and the credit markets are the canary in the coalmine. Unlike the household sector the US corporate sector has key vulnerabilities under the surface.

The key vulnerability is that many of the weakest corporates are highly leveraged and highly dependent on ongoing strong demand growth to service and refinance their debts. The distribution of ratings among nonfinancial investment grade bonds has deteriorated in recent years, so that now, slightly over half of the universe is BBB rated, one notch away from junk.

This increases the risk of a disruptive credit event in which downgrades to junk induce forced liquidation by certain classes of investors who are prohibited from holding noninvestment grade securities. By leading to an abrupt tightening in financial conditions, or worse the HY market closing down, this could trigger a recession. In China President Xi can order the banks to refinance corporate loans. In America President Trump cannot order the banks or the credit markets to do likewise.

Unless we get an early and well thought out policy response the corona virus significantly increases the risks that the US economy slides into recession this year. There are three risk channels in ascending importance. 1. A tightening in financial conditions 2. Increased supply chain disruption (which we have had a taste of in the last two years with Trump’s tariffs) and 3. The demand shock caused by the virus.

The third one is the most important for the US. The sharp drop off in demand as people withdraw from normal day-to-day activity could quickly cause stress in the weakest corporates. Without policy support they will not be able to hold out for very long without firing people. And when the firing starts the expansion ends and the recession begins.

Therefore, the administration and Congress will need to set aside partisan differences in an election year – which faced with the threat of recession no-one wants will actually be less difficult than you might imagine – to provide some kind of fiscal facility to tide over corporates until the situation normalises. It will require creative imagination. Vanilla monetary easing won’t cut it.

Any stimulus package will, however, involve Fed rate cut(s) if only because that it what the markets a braying for, and not delivering what the markets demand risks tightening FCI further at an inopportune time. But if they get this wrong there is little the Fed will be able to do with its current toolkit, and therein lies the big risk for Trump.

*****************************************************

Until very recently it was looking so perfect for Trump as the Democrats seemed to be contriving to commit political suicide by stumbling towards nominating a ‘socialist’ – their own Jeremy Corbyn if you will - as their presidential candidate. Some things haven’t changed since the McCarthy era and socialism is still a dirty word in America, even though arguably Bernie Sanders, unlike Jeremy Corbyn, is not really that socialist, dangerous or crazy.

The virus, now officially a pandemic, has changed things and opens up big risks for President Trump, especially if the Democrats end up nominating a more moderate candidate. Trump’s re-election strategy has been to surf the strong economy strong stock market nexus delivered for him by the Fed, and his reaction to the escalation of the coronavirus crisis has been predictably myopic to downplay it and implore people to buy stocks.

If as seems likely the virus will have a more pernicious impact he will suffer from a weakening in the economy and a loss of trust for misleading voters by downplaying its impact, compounded by the knowledge that Trump abolished the job for global health security and has proposed funding cuts to the CDC and WHO in his latest budget.

As his ‘coronavirus tsar’ he has appointed Mike Pence, who is renowned for his unwillingness to embrace scientific facts and who presided over an HIV outbreak in Indiana in 2015 by withholding free syringes. What could possibly go wrong? The only logical reason that Trump chose Pence is that he can throw him under the bus if or when it all goes wrong. To say the least this is going to be interesting.

[marcs]

Great writeup there. Totally agree about the corporate debt time bomb, we are thinking a lot about this from a financial regulatory sense.

[jal]

Very well put Ian, thanks.

[JimHow]

Eh, we're fine.

It's just a little bug.

I always watch the Nasdaq.

Coca Cola, Colgate, Tampax (PG), etc., will always be fine, despite 20% drops.

Nasdaq was in the green today, despite all the hysteria.
We're perfectly fine.

I was in Paris this past week.
Other than a few masks at the airport, there wasn't an iota of a problem.
There are millions of species of bugs in a single teaspoon of water.

I had bronchitis all winter. Not sure Im done with it yet.
As far as I can tell, it has nothing to do with Corona beer.

[jal]

One little bug and the world is going nuts
Travel is hit not because people are afraid of the bug, but because they don't want to be quarantined for weeks on their return or even worst be stuck in a hotel or on a ship for weeks.
One worker calls in sick at a Hyundai factory in Korea and the factory closes.
All events with more than a 1,000 people including soccer games, concerts and the Geneva auto show are cancelled in Switzerland. There are 15 (!) cases of the virus in that country.
All flights to certain countries are cancelled for months.
Conferences, conventions, meetings, people told not to shake hands, talk that the Tokyo Olympics, the Euro 2020 soccer tournament (the second biggest soccer tournament after the World Cup), and all concerts may be cancelled.
When leaders are panicking and closing factories, quarantining citizens and cancelling venues, it's no wonder markets are going down.
One hopes that cooler heads will prevail and soon everything will calm down.

[JimHow]

Crazy. Unless we are barred from flying into France in 3 weeks, we are moving forward with BWE Bordeaux 2020.

[stefan]

Overreacting to coronavirus? Let's do some fact checking. In the USA we have already had one death due to coronavirus. In comparison, this year there have only been 14,000 deaths in the USA from the flu.

[felixp21]

whilst most of the sentiments expressing over-reaction to this disease are justified, there is one huge, and frightening, difference between this bug and the flu..... it kills people.
sure, the flu claims far, far more lives, but they are elderly, COAD, diabetic people or people with other systemic illnesses.

Covid-19 is killing young, previously totally healthy individuals. The common influenza virus does not do that. Sure, the vast majority of Covid deaths are the elderly and infirm, but there are an increasing number of deaths amongst perfectly normal people, mainly health-care workers. Even the whistle-blower of Wuhan was noted to be previously well and fit, with no medical history to speak of. So, like it or not, if you contract this virus, there is a very real (even if small) chance it will kill you. Early epidemiology estimates suggest a fit man in his 30's with no pre-existing health problem has a 1:1600 chance of dying. Which sounds like a small chance, until you test positive, then you might think it's not so small!!!

I totally agree that most people are not travelling because they fear a quarantine, not the virus itself, but that is more a reflection of the mis-information and mis-understanding of this disease. Let's be honest, this is not just "another bug', it is deadly and as yet, we are a long, long way from getting a commercially-available vaccine for it.

I must say, I am totally bemused by the Orange Orator, who has slapped a ban on Iran, yet Sth Korean and Italian travellers are free to come and go as they please. Perhaps someone can explain that logic to me?? If he was genuine about trying to isolate this disease from the US mainland (impossible anyway), he better stop those Alitalia flights quick smart!!!

[Claudius2]

Folks
I am really going to be happy once the COVID-19 virus disappears.
It is ruining daily life here, and even worse, I have had to visit the local hospital several times as an outpatient (for unrelated matters) and the fuss is stifling and chaotic.
We are having chaos in supermarkets due to hoarding, and people fighting each other in pharmacies for masks, sanitiser and disinfectants. None of those three have shown to be effective on the virus by the way.
Despite all that, nobody here has died and only a handful have experienced severe symptoms.

Stefan
You draw a valid comparison.
I'm in SIngapore and there has been almost total panic here.
As at the end of yesterday, nobody has died from the COVID-19 virus, and three quarters of those who caught it have recovered and have been sent home.
There are now only 20-30 cases if C-19 left here. All but a few are recovering well.

As a point of comparison, there were 1.5 MILLION deaths on roads last year, the highest ever with China now accounting for nearly a quarter of the total. The roads in Asia scare the hell out of me.
Yet I have not heard anyone show much interest in that data. The media see it as being normal.

Felixp-21
The death rate arising from C-19 is similar to any other type of flu.
Nobody here has died from it and the 100 or so cases have mainly recovered.
The worst flu was the so-called Spanish flu at the end of WW1 which killed 40-50 million, and had a death rate of around 10%. And 27% of the world population were infected.
C-19 has to date killed around 3,100 and that is hardly a pandemic.
In relation to total infections, the real number isn't known and the reported data (around 100k) are almost certainly under-stated. Further, there are major time lags between infection and reportage. Not so for deaths.

The virus is NOT killing young, healthy people, with a few exceptions only.
Firstly, only one in four people show serious symptoms irrespective of age.
Old people and those with pre-existing conditions (heart, hypertension, CV disease and immune system issues) are overwhelmingly represented in the stats.
Please see the following chart simply by age group.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-pati ... 00812.html

The probability of a person under 40 dying from the disease is 1/74 that of a person 80 yrs and over.
In absolute terms, anyone under 40 has a 0.2% chance of dying compared to 14.8% among those 80+.
On that basis, it is very similar to common flu though nothing like the deadly Spanish flu of 1918. It is terrible to think of how many people struggled thru the war, only to die of the flu straight after it.

I also do NOT fear the virus. To be brutal, it really is the last of my concerns.
If I was living in Wuhan I'd think differently, but at least in Singapore, the chaos and panic is now starting to settle.

[felixp21]

Claudius, as a doctor, I have to tell you what you say just isn't true. The virus IS killing healthy young people. More than 150 healthy young people in Wuhan, and many others outside Hubei. (including the whistle-blower and at least twelve others in his hospital, all of whom were healthy and reasonably young). Sorry, what you say is utter crap. Where are you getting this information from? I'm getting mine from the Australian DFAT and HCIS, who are sending rather panicky emails to all Aussie doctors, the type we NEVER get when confronted with the usual winter influenza.
At very best, the WHO figures suggest the death rate is AT LEAST 10 times that of the flu. It may be lower than that eventually, as was H1N1 when the final figures were released in 2012, but at this stage there is no suggestion from ANY credible source that the death rate is no more than common influenza. To suggest such is total BS.
A pandemic, although no simple definition exists, has no relation to death rates, it is all about the number of people and countries that have the disease, so your comment about such is also completely ill-informed.

This is the major problem that exists in this day and age of internet communication, so much nonsense being spread around by people who actually have no idea.

The fact that only one in five (not one in four) people show serious symptoms is actually a huge problem, not some sort of "benefit" as you seem to intimate. That fact makes it a far, far more serious disease, simply because of the potential to spread.

John Hopkins epidemiologists estimate the average healthy male in his 30's, based on current data, has a 1:1600 chance of dying if he contracts the disease. Might sound a small chance to you, but I'm sure those that have tested positive would not agree.

[Claudius2]

Felix
I added the link on the source of the age related data, and the deaths and infection data I looked up on the WHO site and added the numbers from the last few days which were not captured by the WHO, based on Singaporean health authorities.
Also I spent a fair bit of my career in health research for govt and the private sector, and was a University lecturer in Australia for 23 years. In fact I taught research methods and applied stats for some time.
I am not about quoting fake data and have no interest in the crap on the Internet published by bloggers and various media sources.

I would suggest that the infection rate is much more likely to be under-reported than the death rate. If the death rate is under-reported, then it is a failure of the health authorities in whatever nation you are implying, though presumably China.
At this stage, the exact death rate is difficult to determine though is likely to be around 1%. That is significantly lower than SARS and most deaths ARE from older people and those with pre-existing conditions.
As for common flu, it really depends of where and when. In Singapore, the death rate from the flu (not COVID-19) has been reported at 0.1 to 0.2% but that is likely to be higher in other Asian countries and I would also question the validity and reliability of flu data as it is often not reported or treated.
That is still one-tenth the incidence of the Spanish flu (1918) which led to 40-50 million deaths. And the Bubonic Plague twice killed tens of millions of Europeans and an unknown number of others, after first rearing its ugly head in the sixth century.
The most deadly was in the 14th century and the WHO estimate is that it then killed around 50 million - a large part of the total population in those days, estimated to be 25-60% of the total European population. Any estimates from Africa and Asia in those days are likely to be guesstimates at best and I have not bothered checking them.

I am not dismissing COVID-19 entirely BUT I am simply arguing that as far as global pandemics go, it is a minor issue compared to various other global outbreaks.
In relation to severity, the local (Sg) authorities published data on severity showing that around 25% had what they define as severe symptoms yet in any case all but a handful of such cases have since recovered with no deaths, and if the global rate is 20% as you quote, then it is even less severe than I mentioned. And reports of new infections are now slowing in China. So I do not envisage that it will ever come close to the Spanish flu.

In terms of those that have tested positive, three in four in Singapore (one of the first countries outside China to report it) have fully recovered, and the local health authorities today reported that only a handful of the 100+ cases who were quarantined here now have severe symptoms. Note that Singapore does have a well developed health sector and the experience in other countries is likely to be worse.

In relation to a probability of 1:1600 if a healthy male contracts it, odds like that would certainly not worry me one bit.
I have several chronic conditions that are much more likely to kill me (and in fact nearly did on at least two conditions).
I am not dismissing the suffering of those that actually experience the disease - or any other disease.
But with around 3,000 odd reported deaths so far, it is hardly a global pandemic.

I am familiar with the individual cases of Chinese doctors dying. Though they are at the front line in treatment and cannot be extrapolated to the general population, and I also commented on this earlier.
And realistically, they are NOT representative of the demography of all cases.
By the way, the official road toll last year in China was 326,000 odd, though the actual govt data was quickly removed after being posted on XINHUANET. Funny about that.

[felixp21]

hells bells, you can get the road toll in China for 2019 on about 200 sources, it is 385,000.

would you please stop quoting deaths in relation to a pandemic, it has absolutely nothing to do with it!!!

if you are chronically ill, as it seems you are, I sincerely hope you do not contract the disease.

[felixp21]

BTW, where is the source of your presumption that the mortality from Covid-19 is no more than the flu??
Yes, I didn't think you had one, because there isn't one (not counting facebook or TikTok lol)

[Claudius2]

Felix
Actually the road death figure I quoted was 2018 and not 2019. That in itself shows how rapidly it is rising in China. And my point is that there is rarely scrutiny anywhere about road deaths. Now if 1.5 million died of Covid-19 then there would be total panic. And the 2018 data was removed from Xinhuanet the day it was posted. The data had been reported by third parties but I could not find 2019 data. Not sure what site gave 385k but I doubt it was an official govt source as it was reported in Singapore (CNA) that Xinhuanet had removed it and my own checking on that site confirmed it. Pls advise the site as I can’t find 2019 data.
Making comparisons with the Spanish flu a valid point as it was quite devastating at the time compared to Covid-19. In relation to sources I never use Tiktok and only Facebook to stay in contact with rels back in Australia. In any case I find Facebook useless as a news site.
In relation to the Bubonic Plague Wikipedia quotes numerous sources and note that people are still dying from it. Even in 2010 to 2015 there were 584 deaths and a death rate of over 20%. It was 30 to 90% in the Middle Ages noting that exact figures are not available.
Official Singapore deaths from common flu are around 0.15% and I suggest that the Sg rate is relatively low on a global basis.
But as I have already outlined I argue that the incidence of Covid-19 is almost certainly under reported. And like the common flu I don’t put a lot of faith into reported incidence data in most countries and particularly China。Even accepting 1% as a likely incidence it is not anything like previous flus and miles under the death rate from SARS which Wikipedia quotes as 9.6%. And SARS like Covid-19 is a type of coronavirus. the death rate from SARS for those over 65 is reported as being higher than 50% by Medicineplus.gov. I agree that the death rate for H1N1 was not only lower than C-19 but it was also lower than common flu BUT one strange characteristic of H1N1 was that it did not disproportionately affect older people which at least partly explains the lower rate. Yet the CDC in the US estimated that deaths were from 150k to 575k and I doubt that C-19 will even get close - and I hope not.
I don’t think it is appropriate to discuss personal health here but happy to explain if I ever meet you.

[DavidG]

People don't react to different causes of morbidity or mortality based on statistical risk, and for understandable psychological and practical reasons. Control over and ability to prevent an event are large factors. So is familiarity with an activity. People generally fear death in an airplane crash or shark attack more than getting killed in a car accident despite the risk of the latter being greater, in large part because of control and familiarity issues. So there's not much point in criticizing people for worrying about the wrong things.

I mostly agree with felix on the facts as currently known. It's too soon to know how many will be infected with Covid-19 or what its mortality rate will be. Data so far suggest a 10x or greater mortality than influenza but we don't really have the denominator yet. We do know there have been some deaths among relatively young and healthy individuals.

[stefan]

>>
I mostly agree with felix on the facts as currently known.
>>

David, do you include facts like

>>
what you say is utter crap
>>
????

Claudius2 stated mostly facts and nothing he wrote deserves to be called "utter crap". I for one disapprove of such language on BWE.

The most significant differences between Covid-19 and seasonal flu are that the experts do not have a good understanding of C-19; in particular, whether it will mostly go away with warmer weather; and that we have no vaccine against C-19 and probably will not have one until next fall or next winter. The death rate from C-19 looks to be significantly higher, but so far we have too little data on that to draw firm conclusions (and I hope that we will never get the data!). Our CDC gives what looks like sensible advice, which is mostly what it advises during every flu season.

[marcs]

I think people trying to minimize this are way off -- there seems to be a strong component of wishful thinking involved.

The best estimate for what we are dealing with is something at least as transmissible as the common cold and 20x more fatal than the flu. Further, the 10-20% of cases that have severe or critical complications may experience permanent lung damage even if they recover.

That is bad -- really bad. It is likely to be even worse in a country like America that has public health capacity that is far, far worse than China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. There are less than a million hospital beds total in the entire U.S. The U.S. has administered only 400 Covid-19 tests TOTAL ever, as compared to 40,000 plus tests per day that were being administered in China at the peak of the epidemic.

[Blanquito]

I think people trying to minimize this are way off -- there seems to be a strong component of wishful thinking involved.

The best estimate for what we are dealing with is something at least as transmissible as the common cold and 20x more fatal than the flu. Further, the 10-20% of cases that have severe or critical complications may experience permanent lung damage even if they recover.

That is bad -- really bad. It is likely to be even worse in a country like America that has public health capacity that is far, far worse than China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. There are less than a million hospital beds total in the entire U.S. The U.S. has administered only 400 Covid-19 tests TOTAL ever, as compared to 40,000 plus tests per day that were being administered in China at the peak of the epidemic.

+1. A 2% mortality rate (compared to 0.1% for influenza) with a highly transmissible pathogen is not good. It won’t end civilization, but it could cause tens of millions of deaths globally.

The geopolitical reaction does seem heavy handed if the virus is truly out of the box, but if it fades away in a few months with warm weather in the northern hemisphere, then all of the efforts taken may have been worth it.

[stefan]

In the Hubei Province, where the outbreak started, the death rate from Covid-19 is 2.9%. In the rest of China it is .4%. It is still too early to know the actual death rate from people becoming infected now, but it is reasonable to guess that .4% is close to the actual figure. That is about four times the death rate from seasonal flu in the USA. Researchers are trying to estimate the R0 value of C-19. I think the best guess now is around 2.3%, but some have suggested that it is considerably higher. I do not know what is the R0 value of the common cold or even whether it makes sense to attach an R0 value to it since there are approximately a zillion different viruses that cause the common cold, the most common being rhinovirus.

[JimHow]

Mayor Pete drops out.
So it's going to be The Bern versus Joe, just like it was The Bern versus Hillary four years ago.
Should be interesting from here on out.
I'm happy with either one as nominee, even though their politics and style are different.

[DavidG]

David, do you include facts like

>>
what you say is utter crap
>>
????

Claudius2 stated mostly facts and nothing he wrote deserves to be called "utter crap". I for one disapprove of such language on BWE.

I’m not interested in the childish name calling. Those are not facts. I was referring to the reported facts on mortality rates.

The most significant differences between Covid-19 and seasonal flu are that the experts do not have a good understanding of C-19; in particular, whether it will mostly go away with warmer weather; and that we have no vaccine against C-19 and probably will not have one until next fall or next winter. The death rate from C-19 looks to be significantly higher, but so far we have too little data on that to draw firm conclusions (and I hope that we will never get the data!). Our CDC gives what looks like sensible advice, which is mostly what it advises during every flu season.

I agree with your comments above that I bolded and believe it is consistent with what Felix and I have posted. These are the facts I was referring to. Mark might turn out to be right, and I hope he is, in terms of Covid-19 petering out with little impact (meaning relatively few deaths). Too soon to tell.

I disagree with the underlined comment, though I suspect it was meant as a wish that too few die to be significant rather than a plea for ignorance or that China withholds data. It’s important to get accurate R0 and mortality data as well as a clear picture of the incubation period, possible and most common means of transmission, and which populations are most susceptible. That information is critical for things like risk/benefit assessments of vaccines and potential treatments, and for planning how to reduce the risk of spread and mortality.

The simple public health messages being promulgated are good ones for reducing the risk of contracting adenovirus (common cold), influenza, or coronavirus : wash your hands, keep them away from your face (eyes, nose, and mouth), and avoid being in close proximity to those who are coughing or sneezing.

[DavidG]

A 5th grade science class project on nuclear fission always comes to mind when there is talk of a potential epidemic. Each kid brought in 5 or 10 mousetraps and twice as many ping pong balls. We cleared the chairs out of 2 classrooms and the teachers set the traps with 2 balls each. In one room they were packed in tight, in the other they were set maybe a foot apart. A single ball was tossed into the center to set off a chain reaction. The ensuing flurry of flying ping pong balls, and the difference in how rapidly the reaction progressed based on spacing, left an impression lasting 50+ years.

[stefan]

>>
I suspect it was meant as a wish that too few die to be significant rather than a plea for ignorance or that China withholds data
>>
Yes, of course it was.

[Claudius2]

DavidG
I am in no way saying that COVID-19 will peter out any time soon. Though I am more hopeful than most.
My main point is that the total panic (particularly here in SE Asia) is out of step with the actual dangers of the virus.
In fact, in Singapore - a country which does like to panic over just about anything - is getting back to normal as there have been no deaths, only a handful of serious cases and now 4 in 5 have recovered and gone home.
Luckily panic buying, supply hoarding and fights at pharmacies are largely over. Yet the country seemed like a movie set for a while.

I also argued earlier that China initially did a very poor job of responding to the virus - even worse, the police were sent to tell medical practitioners under the threat of arrest - to not only cease talking and messaging about the disease, but to write a formal apology saying that there is NO THREAT from the virus. One such person ended up dying from it himself at a young age and with a pregnant spouse. This caused a media storm over here including accusations of bullying and blatant self-interest on the part of the Chinese central govt. And they sure do NOT like any attention that does not suit their own narratives. As usual, they did what communists always do - blame a few local officials, sack them and react to the threat to their own image rather than the needs of the people. By the way, I don't have anything against Chinese people and am married to one. I just hate political bullying and autocratic behaviour.

The number of new infections world wide and particularly in China are now starting to slow, many have fully recovered and whilst more are dying, the attitude here including among health authorities is that the disease can be contained provided rational behaviour continues.

You may also note that I have been a psychologist for a long time, though walked away from the health sector in Australia due to constant frustration over arbitrary and often inconsistent policy, constant changes and political stupidity. My appeal in this matter has been for appropriate control measures to restrict the ongoing transmission of the disease. Unfortunately I think an effective treatment regime is still a long way off. I also have to say I am rather dismayed at the Western media who seemed to have ignored the virus provided that it only killed people over here in Asia. Now that some in Europe and Nth America have it, including some deaths, the media are all over it.

[DavidG]

Mark, I may have misunderstood or misinterpreted your earlier post. I agree that the public reaction is overblown based on where we are now, and I explained how I think human nature is responsible for that. At the same time I think Felix was accurate in portraying the numbers as currently known, though subject to significant doubt at this stage.

I believe there is cause for serious concern and caution as this is likely to get much worse than it is. Worse than a typical/sorta bad year for influenza? I would guess yes but we don’t know. As bad as the worst influenza pandemics the world has seen? Guessing, hoping, praying no.

[DavidG]

There are some graphics in this NY Times article that puts our current (still evolving and incomplete) understanding into perspective.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ntain.html
I tried posting the charts directly but the labels didn’t show. Of course all the data are subject to significant revision as more is learned.

While new case reports may be slowing in China (though their changing case identification criteria muddy the waters and I don’t know how accurate or trustworthy their numbers are), Covid-19 is spreading worldwide. It appears more contagious than seasonal influenza A and MERS, similar to SARS, with estimates of 2-4 infected by each diseased individual (R0). It didn’t help that a lot more people are packed into trains in China now than back when SARS hit. Or that it takes 5-7 days for symptoms to show, allowing for spread before people even know to take precautions. Or that this is a new disease and no one has innate immunity based on prior exposure to it or something similar.

Fatality rates appear higher than seasonal influenza but not as high as MERS or SARS. These estimates are very loose because the number of unidentified mild cases is unknown. Could turn out as low as a typical seasonal influenza (0.1%) or as high as "Spanish flu” (~2%) according to current estimates.

[Claudius2]

David,
I really can't see COVID-19 ever being anything like the Spanish flu, having the death rate of SARS or even the infection rate of H1N1.
I think that now, after the initial breakout in late Dec 19, we have a reasonable though not perfect picture of the death rate as well as the total number of case (accepting that govt stats are often unreliable or downright wrong).
The new infection rate has not at all stopped but is starting to slow as is the death rate.
The Singapore govt data is 89,900 infections (though I'd say that is probably an under-estimation) and 3,069 deaths.
My optimism is the slowing of the numbers and unless there are many new clusters, I think the data shows that existing measures are working at least reasonably well.

[DavidG]

Mark, the very top end of the range in the CFR predictions approach that of Spanish flu, so it is unlikely to be that bad. I'm hoping we don't see rapidly increasing numbers in countries outside of Asia.

[marcs]

DavidG
I am in no way saying that COVID-19 will peter out any time soon. Though I am more hopeful than most.
My main point is that the total panic (particularly here in SE Asia) is out of step with the actual dangers of the virus.

I would suggest that the panic in countries like China, Singapore, HK, etc. is a good reason why the virus may turn out to be "less dangerous" there -- because the government response got on top of it fast.

Let's see how it goes in countries like Iran with basically uncontrolled spread. So far the U.S. is looking uncomfortably close to that policy.