2014 Chateau Margaux at $339... Yes? or No?

[tim]

Thanks Ian, indeed! That was quite a weekend (although it was at the end of the month so a little less than two years).

Thankfully it wasn't this year, that would have been a disaster!

I was just thinking how much better it is to share great wines with people that enjoy them. Looking forward to more BWE events around the world, and greetings from Washington State!

[Musigny 151]

Jim
I think forget the economics and buy whichever deal you feel like.
Can I make a point. Wendy being a typical finance manager, thinks of the price of everything and is always after a bargain.
So if I open ANY wine she tries working out if it is worth it, not worth it, whatever.....

So one rule we have I actually learned from Francois.
Wine needs to be seen as a sunk cost (unless of course you are deliberately buying it as an investment) and thus forget the price when you drink it.
So these days I refuse to disclose the purchase price and have also said that looking it up online is rarely valid unless I bought it yesterday.

One other point however is how crowded your cellar or storage unit is.
When the 2016 vintage wines arrived, I had to rent another storage unit so after that, I thought there is plenty of space for more wine.
So I would have taken the Tour Christophe 2019 if I had some space space to fill, and I would definitely go for the 2014 Margaux if space was at a premium.

As for marginal utility and diminishing returns, I think that for Bordeaux that can be aged for some years, it is not an issue.
You can watch it develop and enjoy something slightly different each time.
So each wine has something relatively unique about it.
As for the Mouton, opportunity cost is too high as you can buy the Margaux and then buy numerous bottles of the Tour Christophe 2019 with the change.
Though I generally prefer Ch Margaux in any case, and the 2014 Margaux wines I have tried so far (admittedly only lesser wines and some seconds) have been very good stylistically.
2014 is a slightly more modern version of 1996 to my palate.

As someone who has been known to buy and sell wines, the cost of the wine is not what I bought it for, but current value. When wines go above certain thresholds, and its cost outweighs what I would pay for it, then I think about getting rid of it.

[Claudius2]

Musigny
Well I’ve been known to flip wine at auction on many occasions but normally when I either don’t like it or if I have a pressing reason such as moving OS or needing capital for business. I also sold all of my Henscke Hill of Grace in the 90s as the auction price strangely increased tenfold in a few years. Happy to sell at $400 when I only paid $40 and in any case I think Mt Edelstone is every bit as good. I did the same with many others.

However I have never bought wine with the deliberate intention of flipping but always see it as an option.

As I moved to Singapore in Jan 2010 the purchase prices are not dissimilar to current auction prices. So I may reassess value at some later date as the wines mature.

If the Tour St Christophe is as good as it is cracked up to be then an option is to wait for appreciation and sell half and drink the rest.

[DavidG]

I looked at wine as a sunk cost for many years. Passion over logic. When Chinese interest created an explosion in Bordeaux pricing, I was was no longer able to ignore current value and sent a bunch of stuff off to auction.

I’m now somewhere in between Mark's "sell it if the value is worth more than I’d pay today" and my old sunk cost philosophy. Sometimes I look at opening a bottle that’s appreciated beyond my willingness to pay as a reward for a smart purchase and patience. Sometimes the desire for the wine outweighs the logic and I’ll drink it anyway. Sometimes it’s a bottle with special meaning. No way I’d buy 1988 Yquem or Krug Clos du Mesnil or 1989 Haut Brion at today's prices. But as wedding and birth year wines, we'll be drinking, not selling those bottles.

Bottom line: there’s more to this wine stuff than just the bottom line.

[tim]

David, not sure what you mean about the 88 Yquem. It isn't much more expensive today than it was 20 years ago, perhaps 50% increase in price, which in the world of wine is negligible.

I still think that Sauternes is the value buy of Bordeaux.

[Gerry M.]

The 2014 Ch Margaux at $339 looks like a great deal for at least a bottle or two. Lowest price on WS is $100 higher at $439. NH still has a fair amount of 14' Haut Brion at $320.

[DavidG]

It's all relative Tim, though I may be wrong about 1988 Yquem. I somehow imagined it was >$500/bottle which is an unlikely buy for me, especially considering provenance on bottles over 30 years old. Looks like US retail is around $350-400/bottle. Probably within range for a special occasion bottle though I'm still leery of provenance at this point.

Plus I'm not comparing to prices 20 years ago, but to what I paid on release, which I think was around $150? Add to that that my wine budget is smaller and upper limit for bottles is lower in retirement than it was 20 years ago.

[JimHow]

Thanks for the lead on the 2014 Haut Brion, Gerry, I didn't see that.
I wonder if it's best to try to buy these wines now at these close out prices or wait till October for the 15% off sale?
I'm sure they won't apply 15% off on top of the already marked down price.... (although I have seen them do that before, with my 2008 Cristals, which got marked down from $250 to $210 and then another 15% off, which brought them down to like $170).
I think I'm going to ask my sources over in NH!

[JimHow]

Okay, I just made the following offer, complete with smiley emoji, to the New Hampshire Liquor Stores, let's see how they respond! My offer is contingent on your 2014 VCC offer, Mark, I have no VCC in my cellar!


Hi Tammy:

Thanks for your reply. I certainly understand the NHLC position on discounts.

I will be swinging by to purchase quite a bit of 2016 Bordeaux when they go on sale in October. It looks like there are large quantities of most of the wines I am looking for still in stock at Store 73 and other stores in the system.

If you could hold 12 bottles of 2016 Chateau Corbin (#94122) and 8 bottles of 2016 Lacoste Borie (#34341) (that's the remaining inventory per the website), I would appreciate it.

Also, I have a question about three other wines.

The website indicates that Store 76 has 2014 Haut Brion (#30044) on clear out sale at $320.99 and 2014 Chateau Margaux (#80010) at $339.99.  I wonder whether NHLS will discount those wines further by 15% in October? If so, if you can get a bottle each of those wines from across the street I would buy them at an additional 15% off.  (In my many years of buying high end Bordeaux in NH, sometimes they further discount these closeout wines, sometimes they don't.). That would bring the 2014 Haut Brion down to $272.84 and the 2014 Chateau Margaux down to $288.99.

I'm trying to bring myself to add a bottle of 2016 Mouton Rothschild (#92700) into the mix.  You have it for sale at $718.49, which would be $610.72 with a 15% discount in October. That's pretty steep, but I would be willing to add a bottle of the 2016 Mouton (#92700) at $610.72 if I could get the 2014 Haut Brion (#30044) at further October 15% discounted price of $272.84 and 2014 Chateau Margaux at further October 15% discounted price of $288.99.

So, to summarize, I'm hoping you can hold 12 bottles of 2016 Corbin (not 2015, which you also have on your shelves), and 8 bottles of 2016 Lacoste Borie, regardless of whether you can accomodate me on my requests about Margaux, Haut Brion, and Mouton. 

However, I would be willing to make the following purchase:

12 bottles of 2016 Chateau Corbin (#94122), regular price $46.49 x .15% discount = $39.52 x 12 bottles = $474.24

8 bottles of 2016 Lacoste Borie (#34341), regular price $33.99 x .15% discount = $28.89 x 8 bottles = $231.12

1 bottle of 2014 Chateau Haut Brion, closeout price $320.99 x .15% discount = $272.84

1 bottle of 2014 Chateau Margaux, closeout price $339.99 x .15% discount = $288.99

If I can get the above bottles at the above prices, i will add the following crazy purchase to my order:

1 bottle of 2016 Chateau Mouton Rothschild, regular price $718.49 x .15% discount = $610.72.

Total purchase (plus whatever I buy from the shelf when I get there):$1,877.91

I intend to buy numerous other bottles of 2016 Bordeaux when they go on sale in October but it just doesn't seem to make sense to ask you to hold them for me as there are large quantities in stock in numerous stores throughout the system.  I just thought I would offer you this opportunity to help you move some of these high end crazy priced Bordeaux that don't seem to be moving, even at closeout prices.  

As usual, I am available to wait until October to complete the transaction or I can get over there as early as tomorrow!

Thanks.
Jim Howaniec

[Gerry M.]

I'm really curious what her response will be. If she agrees the result would be incredible pricing on the 2014's.

[JimHow]

Ha true, but they have done it before. I'll report back when I hear from her! They have accommodated me before at that Hampton South store.

[OrlandoRobert]

Lol, never thought to negotiate for retail!

Go Jimbo go!

[JimHow]

I'm doing THEM a favor. If I can get 3 quality first growths for around $1k I figure I'm doing okay. They have worked with me before. We shall see how they respond this time.

[Musigny 151]

I have plenty of VCC 2014.No need to worry that I will drink it all soon

[Chateau Vin]

Aahhh VCC... out of reach these days...just have 2 bottles of 08 vintage...

5 years ago, jjb was offering 08 VCC on sale for 70 bucks a pop. I chickened out and bought just 2 bottles. I was weak...

[Gerry M.]

I'm doing THEM a favor. If I can get 3 quality first growths for around $1k I figure I'm doing okay. They have worked with me before. We shall see how they respond this time.

I agree. Even at the closeout prices those bottles are still not moving. I've tried to explain in the past to Gordon Hines, the NH wine director, how ridiculous their initial pricing is on release for many offerings to only have them slashed on closeout after a year or so sitting on the shelf. It doesn't make financial sense how they operate.

[marcs]

Jim's email is hilarious because it indicates he is solving the dilemma in his poll -- a single bottle of 16 Mouton, a single bottle of 14 Margaux, or a case of a solid right banker -- in true BWE fashion by choosing to buy ALL THREE. In fact, more than all three, since now it will be 2 bottles of the Margaux LOL.

[JimHow]

[Musigny 151]

This deserves its own thread; what are your best justifications for buying wine you can’t really afford.?

1. It is a bargain.
2. I can always give up my morning Starbucks
3. I can put up a BWE Poll and get others to make good excuses for me.
4. It is Margaux, and it is less than $350
5. It is Mouton. Mark thinks it is life changing and Izak actually agrees with him.
6. What with COVID, retail therapy is actually healthy.

[DavidG]

Once again, all of the above.

In all honesty, Mark, I’ve never bought a wine we couldn’t afford. Never spent so much on wine that we had to forego something else important (food, housing, education etc. etc. etc.).

But I have bought plenty of wine where I’ve felt guilty of spending too much, whether on a per bottle or quantity basis. I’ve used something akin to each of your justifications. Another is that I could sell it for a profit.

[marcs]

This deserves its own thread; what are your best justifications for buying wine you can’t really afford.?

1. It is a bargain.
2. I can always give up my morning Starbucks
3. I can put up a BWE Poll and get others to make good excuses for me.
4. It is Margaux, and it is less than $350
5. It is Mouton. Mark thinks it is life changing and Izak actually agrees with him.
6. What with COVID, retail therapy is actually healthy.

7. Another wine exists somewhere in the world that is worse and costs more, therefore this is a bargain
8. It is VCC and I need to buy it because after Mark buys up all the VCC in the world he will drive the price up to first growth levels
9. It is an auction and this asshole bidding against me cannot be allowed to win
10. Someone on the internet said something intriguing about this wine but I have never tasted it

[dhp]

Jim is a brilliant maniac

[stefan]

Or a manic Maineac.

[Nicklasss]

Approval from BWE is a strong thing. Getting up to notch wine is always something great for a winelover.

The difficult stuff is to wait for the wine to be ready, and find the good people to appreciate it with you.

But even me I'm losing the faith. I do not see my BWEers buddy often enough to be able to open the very few noticeable bottles i have. Last night, believe it or not, i dreamed i was enjoying a nice white Chassagne-Montracher with Jal! When is the next time it will be for real? Even if dstgolf, or marcs would feel bad if i talk to them about the 2009 Léoville Poyferré, i'll make sure to make them feel better with a bottle of a more classic Bordeaux, but when? And these guys on the other side of the ocean, will i ever enjoy the british spirit of Comte, the 95%french\5% american personnality of Alex, or ever meet that very interesting Danish wine critic Izak? Will there be more California trip for me, seeing these cool guys around SF or make my way to Sacramento? And what about Denver, New York, Florida, DC and North Carolina? ChateauVin, jckba, Racer Chris one day?

Good for you Jim if you're able to buy these 1st growth. I'm looking forward to go see you in Maine, but the covid is making it hard. And don't worry Jim, keep these Margaux and Mouton for the other BWEers. Get me some 1985 GPL.

Nic

[JimHow]

Still waiting for a response from NH, it took them a month to respond last time.
The $718 Mouton is not exactly flying off the shelves.

[jal]

Very touching Nic, let's hope the borders open up again soon. I have so many White Burgundies I want to open with friends like you and other BWE'ers