President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:22 pm

And the conservative hate monger wins in Poland over the liberal, the liberal wins in the cities, the conservative prevails by appealing to "family values," hate, bigotry, yada, yada...
A few years ago I heard about all these liberal mayors in Warsaw and the cities, and that change was afoot.
Blah, blah, blah.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Gonna be the same here, you watch.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:57 am

Oppose Godzilla at your peril, folks. Ask Jeff Sessions about that tonight. I'm telling you, I have seen nothing about elections around the world, from Singapore, to Poland, to the UK, to Alabama, that tells me there is some liberal, anti-nationalist thirst out there.... Be afraid, (fellow) Democrats. Be very afraid.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:55 am

The Trump Republican House nominee won here in the barometer second district of Maine (I represented his wife in their divorce), another harbinger of things to come in November. The Orange supporters are rabidly motivated.
I wish JScott were still around to tell us how things are going in the ultimate bellwether, Cincinnati.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:57 am

I see absolutely nothing that is calming my fears in the primary results tonight.

How Quotient:

HQ = 59 (+4)

Electoral College Projection:

268 - 270.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:12 am

A group of woke feminists up in Bangor held a "Susan Collins Retirement Party" the other day.

They are fools.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:46 pm

Jim
Since you mentioned Singapore I have to agree.
Asia isn’t nearly as woke as Europe or North America. But things are slowly changing.
However virtue signalling and good intentions are becoming salient political issues here.
We are all living in a post-modernist world driven by Critical Theory concepts.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:11 am

I said a while back that Trump had blood on his hands for his mishandling of the COVID-19 outbreak. I was told I was nuts. The facts are incontrovertible at this point, though Trump still denies them. Those who continue to believe his lies and go on to vote for him share in the responsibility for the number of sick and dying.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:42 am

Surely that impassioned plea deserves a How Quotient point!

How Quotient:

HQ = 58 (-1 in honor of DavidG!)

I still can't move off my electoral college projection, though.

Electoral College Projection:

268 - 270.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:52 am

It's interesting, when I analyze the situation, there is an obvious statistical anomaly between the HQ and the EC prediction.
The HQ is much more robust than the razor thin electoral college result (remember, a tie goes to Orange... go AZ!).
Why am I so confident in victory for Godzilla In the emotional How Quotient, but less confident in the more mathematical EC prediction?
I don't have an immediate answer to that question....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:02 am

As we approach Labor Day, I invite participation here.
What are your Electoral College predictions?
How do your differ from mine?
Orange has a thin path to reelection, but that was the case in 2016 as well.
I'm going to assume Joe wins PA and MI.
In my opinion, the only way Joe loses those those states is if Orange pulls some shenanigans, which is entirely possible but I'm going to say unlikely in those states.
So that leaves us with: WI, AZ, NC, FL, ME (second district).
ME second district by itself only gets Joe to a tie, which is a loss.
Joe needs to win one of the following:
WI, AZ, NC. FL.
The most likely is WI, but there will be enormous mischief there.
WI will not be decided on election night.
If Joe Biden wins one of the following, he will win:
WI, NC, FL, AZ.
I have ZERO confidence in FL, the most fucked up state in the US, one of the most fucked up places on earth.
To me, it all comes down to WI and AZ.
It's going to be razor thin, as usual.
Thus, the razor thin electoral college prediction.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:11 am

Just visited my little electoral map.
If we lose BOTH WI and AZ, we lose.
If we win EITHER WI or AZ, we WIN.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:55 am

I’m hoping WI regains its senses.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:10 am

Oh, WI will vote for Joe. The votes just won't be counted, and the lines in Milwaukee will be 8 hours long.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 3:56 pm

Scathing Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post today by Eugene Robinson titled, "For the next six months, we’re trapped on a leaking ship captained by a fool." Too bad it won't be read by the folks that should see it. Consistent with Jim's concern (and others), the closing sentence says, "Trump is immensely powerful, bizarrely irrational and increasingly desperate. Perilous months lie ahead."

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:13 pm

I don’t think things have really changed much in the race over the last ~2 months, except perhaps Biden widening his lead.

But here’s my take as of mid July — if there election were tomorrow, Biden would win in a landslide and the Dems would retake the Senate: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ye ... 15-points/
And keep I mind that this 538 polling average -- which has Biden up by 9 pts -- has a likely voter filter already added (which moves the average about 2 pts towards Trump), calibrated by our understanding of how the likely voter filters in 2016 were off (they weren’t adequately weighting the polled population by the education level of the sample).

But the election of course isn’t tomorrow, it’s 3 and a half months away. What might shift the race over this period?

Aside from the natural tightening which occurs in most races, here are the main categories of things that could swing sentiment towards Trump:
Politics (conventions, debates, campaigning, attack ads, social media disinformation), known macro factors (COVID-19, the economy, race relations), unknown macro factors (natural disasters, terrorism, international incidents), and last minute dirty tricks (Russian hacking, voter suppression, false DOJ attacks on Biden).

Overall, politics would be my biggest worry as Trump could put a full court press on Biden in normal times, but I think Politics will be much less consequential in 2020 than is the norm due to the lockdowns and the weight of known macro factors this year. The conventions and campaigning will be duds due to the pandemic, attack ads will work less than usual because opinion of both candidates is so baked-in at this point, and social media effects are small. The debates are my main concern, as Trump is likely to be a rabid dog by late September and Biden is not a strong debater.

The known macro factors all seem to work in Biden's favor. Maybe things are improving a bit by November if we all start wearing masks today and imposing a draconian second lockdown (but it's very unclear if red states will be willing to do these things to the degree needed), but that will be far too late to help the economy.

Honestly, it's hard to see how Trump gets off the mat via legit means.

Given that, I bet dirty tricks are the biggest concern, especially if the race tightens. False info via Facebook and hacks of Twitter, registered voter purges, general voter suppression, long lines, hacked election offices, chaos over the flood of absentee ballots, court challenges, October surprises like Comey in 2016 (Barr announcing a criminal inquiry into Hunter Biden on Halloween?), etc. This part could get really ugly, and we should all pray that the election isn't close so that none of these stunts end up mattering.

If I were Biden, I'd be doing debate prep everyday and I would already have teams of campaign staff and lawyers prepping for Trump to try and steal the election.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:44 pm

Blanquito wrote: Honestly, it's hard to see how Trump gets off the mat via legit means.

Patrick, I don’t really disagree with anything you wrote.
The bolded part above is what really worries me.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:06 pm

Good grief, and Ginsburg's cancer reappears.
We are in for some kind of drama between now and the end of the year.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:43 pm

I'm worried about that too, David.

BUT as of today... "Biden continues to lead the polling averages of states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states with only 170 electoral votes."

Look at these polling averages for swing states!
FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of July 16, 2020, at 2 p.m. Eastern
STATE -- BIDEN -- TRUMP -- MARGIN -- CHANGE SINCE LAST MONTH
Colorado -- 54.7% -- 37.7% -- D+17.0 -- D+0.1
New Mexico -- 54.0% -- 40.3% -- D+13.7 -- D+0.4
Maine -- 53.0% -- 40.9% -- D+12.1 -- R+1.3
Virginia -- 50.5% -- 39.4% -- D+11.1 -- D+0.5
Minnesota -- 53.9% -- 43.7% -- D+10.2 -- D+3.7
Michigan -- 49.5% -- 40.4% -- D+9.1 -- R+1.0
NATIONAL -- 50.3% -- 41.2% -- D+9.1 -- R+0.2
Nevada -- 48.2% -- 39.7% -- D+8.5 -- D+0.6
New Hampshire -- 49.8% -- 41.8% -- D+8.0 -- D+0.4
Pennsylvania -- 49.8% -- 42.1% -- D+7.7 -- D+2.5
Wisconsin -- 49.0% -- 41.4% -- D+7.6 -- D+1.1
Florida -- 49.2% -- 42.4% -- D+6.8 -- None
North Carolina -- 47.9% -- 45.1% -- D+2.9 -- None
Arizona -- 47.4% -- 44.8% -- D+2.6 -- R+1.4
Ohio -- 47.8% -- 45.6% -- D+2.2 -- R+0.4
Georgia -- 47.0% -- 46.1% -- D+0.9 -- None
Texas -- 45.9% -- 46.2% -- R+0.3 -- D+0.4
Iowa -- 45.3% -- 46.0% -- R+0.7 -- D+0.1

Maybe Jim is right that Florida (+6.8 for Biden) is too corrupt and dysfunctional to count on for anything, but how does Trump win in Wisconsin being down 7.6 points? Again, that's 7.6 points after a likely voter screen. Probably only outright, in-your-face election theft can overcome that kinda deficit.*

*other than a brief Access Hollywood drop for Trump in Wisconsin's polls in October, Hillary had a 3-4 pt average lead in WI polls in Sept and Oct 2016 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... wisconsin/).

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:57 pm

Maybe the pandemic is spreading so fast we will have to postpone the election until the emergency is over. These super spreader events just kill too many people.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:20 am

AKR wrote:Maybe the pandemic is spreading so fast we will have to postpone the election until the emergency is over. These super spreader events just kill too many people.

Yes, another variable to muddy the waters. We’ve never postponed an election before though, right? Even during WWI and the Spanish flu?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:23 am

“Under a law dating back to 1845, the US presidential election is slated for the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years - 3 November in 2020. It would take an act of Congress - approved by majorities in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and the Republican-controlled Senate - to change that.”

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:21 am

Mail in ballots are going to kill the Dems.
Did you know that the June 23rd New York results were just released today?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:23 am

I hope nobody is expecting an answer on Nov. 3.
The dozens of lawyers who have been retained will drag this out past the December electoral college deadline.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:44 am

JimHow wrote:Mail in ballots are going to kill the Dems.
Did you know that the June 23rd New York results were just released today?

Apparently some of the local elections still haven’t been counted yet?

Chaos is the strongest prediction for Nov 4 and beyond.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:28 pm

When I get too much Trump, I go to this page for my moment of Zen. Trump, following in the footsteps of J Carter and GHW Bush to glory! (In case it’s not entirely clear, Trump is always the maroon line in the graphic below)

: Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 3.20.17 PM.png (235.39 KiB) Viewed 1332 times

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:44 pm

Blanquito wrote:
AKR wrote:Maybe the pandemic is spreading so fast we will have to postpone the election until the emergency is over. These super spreader events just kill too many people.
Yes, another variable to muddy the waters. We’ve never postponed an election before though, right? Even during WWI and the Spanish flu?

Maybe we have an emergency troika of the Surgeon General, Chief Justice, and the Speaker of the House, for leadership until the pandemic is defeated.

Also Melania could use her spousal Power of Attorney to have Trump receive medical attention, for the many issues that Dr. Mary Trump has detailed (which confirm my remote diagnosis). This would be similar to what Kim Kardashian had to do with Kanye West. Mrs. West probably also didn't want to risk him running for President as well, having seen the damage it can do.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:51 am

How are you feeling, Patrick?
Looks like Joe lost a good point in the "average of polls" <rolls eyes> this week.
At this weekly shift in the polls, Trump will win in a landslide. (Remember, Orange was considered to have like a less than one percent chance of winning when he announced in 2015.)
Meanwhile, masked federal agents are arresting people off the streets and bringing them to unknown locations. And chaos from the virus spreads, and the idiot Dems continue to promote mail in voting (by the way, why is it so impossible to imagine mischief in mail in voting, either from the Dems, or the GOP, or the Russians, when it comes to mail in voting, sabotaging mail boxes, counterfeiting of ballots, etc., etc., etc.? The MSNBC crowd will tell you that there has been no evidence of voter fraud with mail in voting but what happens this year when the Trump lawyers and Fox News and the Republican senate leadership unearth tens of thousands of apparently counterfeited ballots in the suburbs of Milwaukee, and Philly, and Detroit? What do we do then? What's the plan?).
Don't know if you saw that NYT article today talking about the wild swings in past elections, including Hillary's, who was nearly 7 points up, "with a 91% chance of winning" according to the NYT <rolls eyes>, on October 18, 2016.
I truly believe the Democrats, and the sissy generation, have no idea what is about to hit them.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:03 am

Boy, I'm not feeling it for the Dems, I'm going to take my David G point back.
Interestingly, I continue to see little movement in the electoral college....

How Quotient:

HQ = 59

Electoral College Projection:

268 - 270.

All bullshit aside, I just see Orange winning this thing, I'm sorry. My mind could POSSIBLY be changed about Wisconsin and Arizona, but I'm still not counting on it, and until then, I've got a Trump reelection. Somebody tell me which state(s) turn it over to Joe. Other than POSSIBLY WI or AZ, I just don't see it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:05 am

It is interesting to compare the Bush 2000 and Trump 2020 electoral maps.

Bush won Colorado and New Hampshire, both of which will go for Biden this year.
Trump will lose CO and NH but will win WI, IA, and ME-2.

How the hell did we lose IA? And WI, that is one pathetic state, completely overrun by crooked lobbyists and elected judges, almost as pathetic as the most pathetic state in the country, FL.
I call it the "Florida of the North," and it is the state that is going to hand the election to Orange Head.

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:02 pm

This is my favorite BWE thread, when I'm busy on the toilet!

This topic is far, very far away from Bordeaux wines.

Nic

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:46 pm

Jim, overall I agree with your take on the race... if we're talking about Biden's worst case scenario.

To me, what you describe is as close as this race will get, where it comes down to WI and AZ. Pretty much the worst Biden will do is 268 Electoral College votes or he ekes out a win with 278 votes.

But there's a ton of evidence that it is just as likely to be a solid Biden win (290-319 Electoral College votes) or a Biden blowout (370-412 Electoral College votes).

I know you've said repeatedly you put little faith in the polls, but lots and lots of recent polls* show Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and even Texas very much in play this year, often even with a small Biden lead.

I get the skepticism that Biden will in these places, but not long ago Obama won most of these states in 2008 and 2012 despite GOP dirty tricks, and Trump is a historically unpopular president (the first president since polling began in the 1930's to never have a positive approval rating in his entire term) and opinions of him are locked in at this point. Moreover, Biden ain't Hillary.

*Polls issued today:
-Texas, JUL 16-20, Quinnipiac University, Biden +1
-Arizona, JUL 17-18, Public Policy Polling, Biden +4
-Georgia, JUL 9-15, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Biden +4

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:35 pm

I do agree Joe is pretty solid at 268.
It’s all going to come down to Wisconsin, which would be an otherwise easy Biden victory but for the Russians and Trump’s fascist tactics.
Any additional states beyond WI would be gravy, but I’m not counting on them.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:56 pm

We certainly agree that WI is Biden's tipping point state. If I were his campaign manager, I'd be giving WI (and MI and PA) the full court press from everyday from today until Nov. 3rd.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:27 pm

Quite frankly, I'll be surprised if Biden doesn't take Ohio.
Their Republican Speaker of the House was just indicted on bribery charges.
A lot of reasons for Republicans to stay home or vote across the aisle this year.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:37 am

I saw a new ad on television this morning, just out by VoteVets.org. At the end it says the military takes an oath to protect the constitution against all enemies foreign or domestic - like Donald Trump.
I thought it was a very well made ad.
There is a strong tide building to push him out of office. At least two different republican groups are releasing anti-Trump ads regularly now.
All this frees Biden up to make his case to the American people, and helps keep the Trump campaign on defense.
He won't get help from the FBI this time, and the Senator (Ron Johnson) in charge of anti-Biden investigations is in trouble.
There is zero chance the economy will have recovered from the unnecessarily extended pandemic by November, and people know who is responsible for the pandemic being out of control - the guy at the top.
Trump hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell in a legitimate election this fall.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:28 pm

I don't take polls seriously until after October 1st but, for FWIW, Trump gained 2 points in the "average of polls" this week. It's now down to 7+% points nationwide, about the size of leads squandered by past defeated Democrats like Carter, Dukakis and Hillary.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:09 pm

Come back when there's an actual trend, not just background variation.
Trump's campaign has no traction, they're just spinning tires in the mud.
Internal shake-ups, lack of rally events, weak press conferences that are thinly veiled campaign speeches, all go along with his poor performance on most important issues of the day.
He will also fail with the "law and order" push he's on right now.
Joe Biden seems to be the one wearing Teflon this election season.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:47 pm

Here's the state of the race based on polls weighted by 538, where I've color coded all states as either no-doubters and toss-ups. If this is right, Biden is at 308 EC votes even if all toss-ups go to Trump:

: 270towin.png (243.02 KiB) Viewed 978 times

:

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:53 pm

How did I get there? Consider today's polling averages:
-Florida -- Biden +7.5%
-Wisconsin -- Biden +6.7%
-Michigan -- Biden +7.0%
-Pennsylvania -- Biden +6.7%
-New Hampshire -- Biden +7.2%
-Nevada -- Biden +6.3%

These are leads that far exceed any sort of polling miss or error (i.e. the margin of error).

The electoral landscape may change in Trump's favor by November, but Trump ain't winning unless it does.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:23 pm

Jesus, Quinnipiac has Joe up by 13 points in Florida, Trump cancels Jacksonville convention.

That can't be ignored....

How Quotient:

HQ = 49

Electoral College Projection:

307 - 231.