When President Obama is re-elected!!

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:44 pm

RDD wrote:
JScott wrote:I think the $250M he's already earned would cover those things decently well......
Yes he's made a lot of money. He certainly doesn't need to worry about anything.
Maybe he'll get elected.

Maybe he will. Maybe he won't. Making a lot of money certainly hasn't been a disqualifier in France, Italy, the U.S. Congress or anywhere else recently.....

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:27 pm

No it hasn't.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:02 pm

don't forget, we live in a plutocracy these days

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:20 pm

Plutocracy == gone to the cartoon dogs?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:43 pm

Nice, Tom, nice.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:37 pm

Obama up two points in today's Gallup, 48-46. Romney continues to come across as the phony shithead that he is, our possible salvation. "It's the economy, stupid," is one if the key indicators in a presidential campaign. But there's another big one as well: "likability". And here Obama trumps him. Obama holding strong in key swing states. That Obama is still in the race in Florida (and actually leading in most polls) is nothing short of amazing. Still, the Republicans have unlimited amounts of funny money. The debates are going to be huge, especially the first one. For now, I'll move Obama up to 55%.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 3:18 pm

If the 1st debate is even ruled a draw, that may be enough for Obama. The joker is the Middle East, it's so volatile right now that a major crisis could erupt anytime and how Obama deals with it would be a major factor, IMO. Then there's the administration's prickly relationship with Israel..... It ain't over till it's over.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Mon Sep 24, 2012 7:15 pm

Now here's a set of polls:
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 47, Romney 46 Obama +1
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama Civitas (R) Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
Florida: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 54, Romney 42 Obama +12
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica* Obama 53, Romney 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Mercyhurst University Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
Minnesota: Romney vs. Obama Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon* Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:23 pm

Obama up 53-43 in Ohio and 53-44 in Florida in today's respected NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll.
Still a long way to go but these trends in Ohio and Florida are obviously devastating at this point.
Obama's rating shoots up to 70% with these results.
Still a looong way to go, though, these are just snapshots.
Six weeks can be an eternity in politics.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 5:06 pm

Wow, Obama jumped three points in today's Gallup poll, now up by six points, 50-44%.
Looks like that 47% comment is getting shoved down Romey's throat.
Obama victory chances up to 80% in my book. Again, a snapshot.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:57 pm

And how about this one, Jim:
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 1:13 am

It all looks good, Bacchus, but there's still a long way to go. Next week is a big week.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 1:18 am

It is almost time to break out the Champagne.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 3:06 am

I drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I drink it when I'm alone. When I have company I consider it obligatory. I trifle with it if I'm not hungry and drink it when I am. Otherwise I never touch it - unless I'm thirsty. ~ Madame Lilly Bollinger

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 28, 2012 11:56 pm

My September 27th pre-debate electoral college prediction (results that will surely narrow, although I could surely legitimiately put NC in Obama's column at this point):

270 Needed to Win:

Barack H. Obama: 332

Willard M. Romney: 206

Obama states: ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, OH, WI, MN, IL, MI, PA, FL, CO, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, HI.

Romney states: AL, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, KY, SC, NC, WV.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 8:57 pm

Romney gained a point in Gallup today, he's now down by 5. He can't help but gain points in this week's debate. Just being on the same stage as the incumbent president lends immediate credibility. The race should be tighter by this time next week.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Mon Oct 01, 2012 12:38 am

Are you sure? The only thing I'm wondering is which foot Romney will jump in with first!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 01, 2012 12:41 am

Oh I think Obama is a greater speech-giver than debater. And I think Romney is a better debater than speech-giver.
He made mince meat out of Newt Gingrich in their Florida debate. I think Romney has nowhere to go but up.
By just being on the same stage as POTUS he gains legitimacy.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:31 pm

Ugh, Romney gains another point in Gallup, down only 49-45%. It's gonna be a barnburner.
I think the poll spike from the 47% gaff is subsiding.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:48 pm

Romney with the lead is a juggernaut!

Romney when behind is even more dangerous!

blah, blah, blah, blah, [fat lady singing].

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 6:38 pm

Obama picks up two points today in Gallup, up 50-44%.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:12 pm

And then there's these:
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Roanoke College Obama 48, Romney 40 Obama +8
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:25 pm

I was reading a story where Obama's internal polling has him up in Arizona.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:55 pm

At this point I have no idea what to think. I really don't believe a single poll out there any more. Many of the polls that had Obama all but locked last week appear to have done so using sampling that assumes historically unprecedented, record turnout for Dems, and this week suddenly the polls are within the margin of error again. Add to this the recent testimony of a former pollster for Gore and Edwards who admits under oath during the Edwards trial that most of his polling was propaganda. I still think this is tight as can be and still give the edge to Obama, purely based on electoral advantage. The rest is noise.

Undeniably, tomorrow is critical, probably more for Romney than Obama.

I'm also having some problems with early voting. I think it's just a little too much. Should we vote all year? Should we start voting for 2016 on November 7?? People have already cast a ballot and we haven't had the first debate!! I do believe it provides an opportunity for more to be involved given our historically terrible rate of participation, but I'm not sure the electorate we're including is necessarily an informed electorate. I guess everyone's entitled to cast their vote as they see fit. Just thinking out loud.......

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:25 am

The first debate is important. Al Gore never quite recovered from that first debate when he was sighing and rolling his eyes.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:02 am

And here we go!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:09 am

First points on jobs scored by Romney.
Employs humor at outset.
Outlines specific 5 point plan.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:11 am

Both men looking presidential.
That's better for Romney.
Ten minutes down, nothing dramatic yet.
That's good for the president.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:12 am

Romney goes on offensive.
Barrage of body blows
President looking down.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:13 am

Romney much more animated.
Much more energized than Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:16 am

I'm not a woman.
I'm guessing a woman might be liking Obama more here.
Good counter from Obama on Romney's phantom numbers.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:18 am

Romney countering hard.
You and your running mate keep saying that. that doesn't make that true.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:18 am

Is Romney coming off as strident?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:20 am

President gaining strength.
No big moments yet, twenty minutes in.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:22 am

Obama smiling.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:24 am

Obama scoring points on the argument that Romney's math not adding up.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:25 am

Obama invokes Clinton.
Romney looking too excitable.
He looks like the goody two shoes boy who sits at the front of the class.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:26 am

Story of first half hour: Romney attacks, Obama counterpunches.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:28 am

Romney looks good, looks presidential, but so far I don't think he sounds presidential.
Obama has gained his footing, looking cool.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:30 am

Obama talking too much about what he's done.
He's more effective when he talks about how weak the Republican plan is.