2021 predictions

[Ambrose]

With the write ups not far from coming out what are your predictions?

I’ll go with
1.. predictable comments along the lines of ‘the best chateau made the best wines’ / Saint Julien is ultra consistent this year / hard push on the ‘classic element’ / some obscure right banker has made ‘their best ever!’
2.. prices down by only 10% or so.
3.. A big thread on BWE about people not buying this vintage at all for various reasons, followed slowly by nearly all participants eventually getting FOMO and locking in a case or two of their favourites.

What else you got?

[Ambrose]

And possibly
4. Jim buying some Lynch Bages and then denouncing it as mediocre in about 2025

[Claudius2]

Ambrose
Well it sounds like an average year at best and one I will ignore.
I’ve already heard it being called a miracle year, a winemakers year and a difficult year with the usual caveats and some hyperbole. So it sounds like 1978 which was the last miracle vintage.

Cheers
Mark

[DavidG]

Those sound like reasonable predictions.

Suspect you’re right about prices but who knows.

I don’t think there will be a ton of enthusiasm on BWE later down the road due to FOMO unless the wines are better than early reports. Even Izak isn’t enthusiastic, though he has yet to actually taste them.

If the wines are better than portrayed by the press, Jim can be relied on to lead the charge once they start showing up in NH and he gets his hands on them.

From reports so far, 2021 sounds like it would be a pass for me even if I were younger and still buying Bordeaux futures (I quit for the 27th time after locking in some 2019 DdC 3 days ago ).

[Musigny 151]

With the write ups not far from coming out what are your predictions?
3.. A big thread on BWE about people not buying this vintage at all for various reasons, followed slowly by nearly all participants eventually getting FOMO and locking in a case or two of their favourites.

What else you got?

That last one is me. But then it is VCC

[Claudius2]

Guys
I have just received my first price list for 2021 en primeur.
I was somehow naively expecting better prices than 2020 (which I did not buy) given a lesser vintage and importantly, a much weaker Euro compared to local currency (about 10% less than the same time last year).

Yet based on what I have seen, I'd be better off picking up more 2019's retail or even 2014, 2015 and 2016's.
The newly listed prices actually are a bit of a shock.
Only had one importer offer so far (the rest will soon follow once scores/ratings for the wine are available) but I am genuinely surprised.

So I have a new theory:

A. The trade will talk up the quality of the vintage overall, saying that it is much better than initially expected, overall good to very good quality.
B. Several wines particularly on the right bank will proclaim their greatest ever wine.
C. Initial sales will be cautious and the 1ers Crus and other famous wines will be shy about opening prices until they get a handle on market acceptance of the other wines.
D. The wines will struggle to sell in Asia incl China due to Covid, political turmoil and economic slowdowns due to not just Covid and supply chain failures, but also the increasing business crackdowns in China. It is getting rather nasty to be honest.

cheers
Mark

[Musigny 151]

A fascinating read.
https://www.anthocyanes.fr/the-popeye-v ... f-ipseity/

[greatbxfreak]

Musigny151,

Yes, it is.

However, I'm afraid I have to disagree with him that some of the 2021 wines surpass the 2020 versions. I've tasted close to 350 barrel samples in Bordeaux during two weeks in April, and no wine among the big and small ones was better Imho than their 2020 counterparts. I've already seen some primeur tasting reports from French, English and German journalists claiming that 2021 is much better than expected and some estates made better wines than in 2018, 2019 and 2020, which isn't factually correct imho.

Yes, there is elegance and finesse and freshness. But elegance can disguise lightness and lack of flesh to cover the bones. You call it skinny wines, and then lack of midpalate is quite noticeable, especially in lower classified wines. 2021 is a red fruit vintage, flowery (roses and iris, violet) with ripe and silky/soft tannin and with fine length.

Yes, 2021 is a return to classic cold climate Bordeaux vintage, some will say the 80s or mid-90s. However, 2021 ain't and won't be another 1986 or 1996.

The best terroirs and the best winemakers made the best wines in 2021.

Lower alcohol levels in 2021 will make members of this forum very happy indeed.

[DavidG]

Some folks prefer wines that are lower in alcohol and highlight elegance, finesse, and freshness to those that emphasize power and concentration. For them, perhaps the 2021s will actually be better than the corresponding 2020s. Jeff Leve says it’s a year that will be loved by AFWE palates.

If the majority that makes the market disagrees and doesn’t much care for the 2021s, they may be a real steal at some point down the road. Not as futures, though. I’m reminded of the Great MacArthur’s 2002 Bordeaux Heist perpetrated by outlaw and rogue lawyer-turned-philanthropist Jimmy L.B. How and his BWE Gang.

[greatbxfreak]

DavidG,

I believe it's a perfect vintage for English palates. Still, using the word elegance masks dilution and fragility.

This vintage isn't the one I will buy en primeur as I don't think prices will go down.

Both saignee and chaptalisation were used in 2021, and the latter took place even at big chateaux.

[Claudius2]

Izak
I had a bit of a laugh about your Low alcohol quip.
Seriously there are very few Bordeaux I’ve ever sipped that are overtly high in alcohol incl the 2010 tasting I did last Friday. Not sure about the style though.
In my case my criticism has mainly been directed at Aust wines who chased RPJnr points - and with unabashed success. A long story.

Yet your comments largely mirror was narrative above - 2021 will of course get talked up by the trade as it is for sale.

I am however dismayed by the prices so far.
Seriously this vintage is going to be a hard sell and some of the local Asian importers won’t take them at current prices. I’m not sure what world the Bordelaise live in but the air must be pretty thin there.

Having said that the prices of Burgundy are increasing at a faster rate so I suppose I just have to expect annual price increases irrespective of quality.

Cheers
Mark

[yohan_castaing]

Dear Izak,

Just as one has to be very careful and attentive when tasting any wine, but especially Bordeaux en primeur wines, one should be careful and attentive when reading a tasting report so as not to distort what was said on some forum post. Just as I said in my own tasting report: “So even more than usual, it pays to proceed with caution when reading 2021 tasting reports.” To quote myself once again, in direct reference to the remark that “I'm afraid I have to disagree with him that some of the 2021 wines surpass the 2020 versions.”:

“Colossal efforts paid off and a great many wines attained an exceptional level of quality, with some notable,undeniable successes that may even surpass the brilliant level of 2020…. A number of careful wine growers produced some beautiful wines, and a few even achieved greatness.”


As for greatness, the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, although the examples are indeed few in number in 2021, there are some that have achieved that magical mix of balance, nuance and terroir expression - and even depth of expression without the coveted sun-drenched density that some tasters seem to seek for their pantheon of wines on all occasions – that definitely puts them in the running alongside the 2020 from the same property. Again, as said, only time will tell which wines stay the distance with elegance.

Some may always prefer the fleshy contours of a Jayne Mansfield, but others may find just as attractive - and so much better as an actress - the fine-boned Audrey Hepburn.

As for the remark, “2021 ain't and won't be another 1986 or 1996”, you can say that again, or as the French say, tant mieux, so much the better, especially regarding 1986, which has never been a benchmark of elegance and subtlety.

[greatbxfreak]

Yohan,

I think your report is excellently written, and I pointed it out.

Still, and imho, 2021 vintage won't touch the three previous vintages. It is my feeling right now.

For me, 2021 borders the 2017 vintage with the softness of the 2012 vintage.

I tasted all the big ones, except Ausone, Figeac, Troplong Mondot and Latour.

Yes, the other big ones are great, magically put together, but imho not with the same mid-palate tension and richness as 2016, 2019 and 2020. They are a bit lighter in expression, which isn't negatively meant. Elegant, yes, but will it stay after ten years in a bottle? Tannins are ripe, yes, but soft. Yes, it is a more classic vintage than the ones in recent years and with lower alcohol levels. White wines, dry and sweet, are imho as fine as 2019, with more acidity and length.

I neither like wines in Jane Mansfield style nor skinny wines. Something in between, more like Julia Roberts and Sophia Loren.

The big question is how much cheaper or more expensive this vintage will be concerning primeur prices, and an increase in prices won't be that good for the market.

[Musigny 151]

Sophia Loren is not in between. Epitomizes voluptuous.

[Musigny 151]

I think the vintage and pricing needs to be separated. Spending power except for a lucky few is finite, and the wine lover needs to make choices.

The 2021 follows an unprecedented run of great vintages going back to 2014. Not a single clunker, and plenty of wine available. So inevitably when faced with paying 2021 prices, the question of value comes in, and although reports are much better than forecasted, it seems that few if any of the wines reach the heights of previous vintages.

As a result, I am limiting my purchases to six half bottles as opposed to my large purchases of 2019 and decent amount of 2020. I see almost no possibility that the 2021s are going to be more expensive when they come to market, and I suspect they will be a lot cheaper.

[Dionysus]

I think the vintage and pricing needs to be separated. Spending power except for a lucky few is finite, and the wine lover needs to make choices.

The 2021 follows an unprecedented run of great vintages going back to 2014. Not a single clunker, and plenty of wine available. So inevitably when faced with paying 2021 prices, the question of value comes in, and although reports are much better than forecasted, it seems that few if any of the wines reach the heights of previous vintages.

As a result, I am limiting my purchases to six half bottles as opposed to my large purchases of 2019 and decent amount of 2020. I see almost no possibility that the 2021s are going to be more expensive when they come to market, and I suspect they will be a lot cheaper.

Agreed with all this, although I'd arguably take 2021 over 2015 for some estates.

Whites and stickies are also an exception. Yields in Sauternes in particular are minuscule, so may be worthwhile trying source en primeur if in the market.

[AKR]

Sophia Loren is not in between. Epitomizes voluptuous.

Plus she's Italian.

[Musigny 151]

UK merchant is offering the following
Batailley - £330 per 12
92-94pts Neal Martin, Vinous“The 2021 Batailley was picked September 30 to October 15 and matured in 55–60% new oak. It has a well-defined, focused bouquet, a quintessential Pauillac nose of black fruit infused with cedar and mint. The palate is medium-bodied with a touch of black pepper on the entry and delivers good depth and fine grip. This is a Batailley with commendable stuffing for the vintage and it fans out with gusto on the finish. It might not be the best Pauillac in 2021, yet I bet you won’t find better value for money, notwithstanding its underestimated propensity to age.”

Cantemerle - £216 per 12
90-91pts William Kelley, robertparker.com “The 2021 Cantemerle is a very strong effort in a challenging year, offering up aromas of blackcurrants and plums mingled with hints of spice box, black truffle and loamy soil. Medium to full-bodied, fleshy and charming, it's supple and succulent, with a generous core of fruit and a saline finish. It's sure to number among the sleepers of the vintage.”

Duhart Milon - £672 per 12
93pts Jane Anson, Inside Bordeaux “Precise and finessed black fruits here right from the first moments, this is high Cabernet Sauvignon, lovely black savoury fruits that suit the slighly serious feel of Duhart. Expect precision, strict tannins, straight lines, plenty of freshness but without the rusticity that you could find in older Duharts. About 15% press wine after careful extraction and a short maceration. A little more old school Duhart than we have seen over the past few years, but thoroughly enjoyable. 1st year organic conversion, 30hl/h yields.”

Potensac - £197 per 12
90-92pts Antonio Galloni, Vinous “The 2021 Potensac is beguiling. Perhaps it is the high amount of Cabernet Franc (23%) in the blend this year. The 2021 exudes refinement from the very first taste. Rose petal, spice, crushed red berry fruit and sweet pipe tobacco all open effortlessly. Readers will find a Haut-Médoc endowed with compelling aromatic presence and exceptional balance. The purity of the flavors is striking.”

[Dionysus]

Anyone succumb to their FOMO urgings??

Les Carmes Haut-Brion slightly piquing my interest...appears to be almost universally well reviewed: falstaff (95), Vinous NM (93-95), JR (17++), Vinous AG (96-98), RP WK (94-97), B&D (95-96), JL (94-96). Don't see any rating from Izak, so presumably not tasted.

Note sure when it is due to be released, so will need to keep an eye on pricing...will need to be 10% less than 2020, at least, which I suspect is unlikely.

Mark, I know your against buying any 2021 en-primeur...would this advice extend to smaller properties where supply may not be as plentiful when released into the market in two years time?

[Musigny 151]

Sometimes Bordeaux is obvious. 2019 was obvious, fine quality at a great price, so cheap that it undercut several previous vintages. I bought a fair amount, because the likelihood of the confluence of events that resulted in those low prices is hopefully unlikely to happen again.

2021 is also obvious. You should NOT buy now. Maybe when the wines arrive in a couple of years, more likely ten, twenty years down the road when they are available in the secondary market. It sounds like an interesting vintage, but the obvious here is economic. I will buy a few half bottles, because they are hard to find in the secondary market.


There are a few reasons to buy futures.

1. Price. Definitely not 2021. It’s expensive, and from what I hear a hard sell. I am hearing even before all the prices are released that there is some slight discounting.

2. Access. People said if you want Petrus, Lafleur Lafite etc, buy as futures. This was never really true, and even less so now. The secondary market is stronger and more diverse than ever, and you can buy anything there. In the case of 2021, you will almost certainly pay less.

3. Format. If you want half bottles or large formats, particularly half bottles, this is your best chance of buying. So, I will be buying a half case of VCC. Only reason I can see for purchasing any 2021.

4. Protecting provenance. Interesting, but plenty of late released wines with similar provenance, and exactly the same as those that come into Zachys’s and HDH cellars on release.

5. Psychological. You want to feel that you were part of the process, or you have a child born that year, and it is more meaningful to buy as a future. Hard to argue with those logically,

Despite having some fervent support, they are doomed to stay unsold because the scores are comparatively low. People don’t buy between the lines, but the headlines, the scores. So there is no rush; there are no lines forming. You will have the chance to taste the wines yourself when they come to market.

[Claudius2]

Guys
I did not bother with 2020 after loading up on 2019.
I am still dismayed by the prices of 2021 En Primeur and I can still pick up 2019s for lower prices.
My initial thoughts were that prices would edge downward but that isn’t the case and the next retailer that tells me the usual narratives - much better than expected, shows off the hard work.., careful selection, over-achiever… whatever, I will kill with my bare hands.

Many years ago an Bordeaux insider told me that the greatest vintage ever is the one for sale. However I used to work on the theory that lesser vintages are still worthwhile if prices reflect the vintage. So even in vintages like 1984 and 1993, I found some wines that were very nice (Margaux was a standout in both) AND priced accordingly. This is no longer happening.

So I still wonder what happens to the wines produced by the petit chateaux in such vintages? Okay the 1ers Crus and other famous wines can always find a home but if the lesser estates don’t price realistically they will not sell much.

Cheers
Mark

[DavidG]

Mark, I think a lot of the lesser stuff gets sold in French supermarkets. And in lesser vintages some of the not quite lesser stuff that didn’t sell sell ends up there as well during the Foires au Vins.

[Musigny 151]

Do you think the French will buy much at the Foire at those release prices. Even if the negotiants sell them at cost, they won’t attract the bargain hunters there who I found to be pretty savvy.

[Dionysus]

Mark, I know your against buying any 2021 en-primeur...would this advice extend to smaller properties where supply may not be as plentiful when released into the market in two years time?

So there is no rush; there are no lines forming. You will have the chance to taste the wines yourself when they come to market.

So that will be a NO then Thanks Mark!!

I used to work on the theory that lesser vintages are still worthwhile if prices reflect the vintage. So even in vintages like 1984 and 1993, I found some wines that were very nice (Margaux was a standout in both) AND priced accordingly. This is no longer happening.

The Bordelais pricing strategy is perfectly understandable though isn't it...they are not pricing the 2021 vintage per se, but are rather setting the low bar for 2022, 2023 vintage etc. Presumably they are hoping for a return to the more modern classic vintages ala 18, 19 & 20, so the argument will be "Well if the price for the poorer 2021 was $100, we can surely charge $150 for the exceptional 2022, and $170 for the exquisite 2023, etc." As to what would transpire should they produce a string of "poor" vintages, however unlikely this may seem, I'm less sure; could it spell the beginning of the end of en-primeur?

The have to be watching the insistent price increases displayed by there counterparts in Burgundy as well of course, with some jealously, where vintage variation appears to matter jot. "It's a great vintage, lets double the prices...It's only an ok vintage, maybe just increase by 25% this year then. It's a poor vintage, should we increase by 10%? "

The market will adjust the 2021's accordingly in 2/3/4 years time, and I suspect many (but not all) will be available at discounts to today's release prices. The % of wines released en-primeur is becoming smaller each year, with many of the larger estates holding back greater quantities, which in a way creates artificial demand. They can then choose to release further allocations over the coming years when market conditions are in their favour.

[Dionysus]

And BTW, I'm convinced that the 2021s will be loved by many on this forum in years to come, akin to the 2014 vintage today. But the time to strike is in 5/6 years time when the market will be entirely in our favour.

[DavidG]

Do you think the French will buy much at the Foire at those release prices. Even if the negotiants sell them at cost, they won’t attract the bargain hunters there who I found to be pretty savvy.

Good question. I suppose most will eventually be marked down enough to sell. Or maybe they'll get made into hand sanitizer… Predicting who will get the shortest haircut is not in my skill set.

[Antoine]

Maybe they wish people to buy all the 2019 left overs...

[JimS]

Anyone succumb to their FOMO urgings??

Les Carmes Haut-Brion slightly piquing my interest...appears to be almost universally well reviewed: falstaff (95), Vinous NM (93-95), JR (17++), Vinous AG (96-98), RP WK (94-97), B&D (95-96), JL (94-96). Don't see any rating from Izak, so presumably not tasted.

Note sure when it is due to be released, so will need to keep an eye on pricing...will need to be 10% less than 2020, at least, which I suspect is unlikely.

Mark, I know your against buying any 2021 en-primeur...would this advice extend to smaller properties where supply may not be as plentiful when released into the market in two years time?

Well, looks like this one was out yesterday.... €80.40 p/b ex-negociant, up 3.1% from 2020 (€78). This may be the only one I am on the fence about buying in this years EP campaign. I've generally liked Les Carmes Haut-Brion and feel like it's on the upswing though in some of the more solar vintages seemed a little too much. Perhaps 2021 served them well....I know William Kelley really praised how they handled 2021 and thinks it may be of higher quality than prior vintages. Anyone else getting FOMO yet? Thus far, this is the only one for me that I am even thinking about purchasing.

[PghMike]

Anyone succumb to their FOMO urgings??

Les Carmes Haut-Brion slightly piquing my interest...appears to be almost universally well reviewed: falstaff (95), Vinous NM (93-95), JR (17++), Vinous AG (96-98), RP WK (94-97), B&D (95-96), JL (94-96). Don't see any rating from Izak, so presumably not tasted.

Note sure when it is due to be released, so will need to keep an eye on pricing...will need to be 10% less than 2020, at least, which I suspect is unlikely.

Mark, I know your against buying any 2021 en-primeur...would this advice extend to smaller properties where supply may not be as plentiful when released into the market in two years time?

Well, looks like this one was out yesterday.... €80.40 p/b ex-negociant, up 3.1% from 2020 (€78). This may be the only one I am on the fence about buying in this years EP campaign. I've generally liked Les Carmes Haut-Brion and feel like it's on the upswing though in some of the more solar vintages seemed a little too much. Perhaps 2021 served them well....I know William Kelley really praised how they handled 2021 and thinks it may be of higher quality than prior vintages. Anyone else getting FOMO yet? Thus far, this is the only one for me that I am even thinking about purchasing.

Just grabbed 3 LCHB at $104 + tax and shipping.

[Musigny 151]

The dynamic in Bordeaux is making money. There is no reason whatsoever to buy 2021. They would make sense at a serious discount (Rauzan at $50 not $75) but the current pricing should not tempt anybody. The exception are smaller or larger formats that you can buy en primeur without paying a premium. I like half bottles, so have decided on one purchase, half a dozen halves of VCC. It fills the vertical, will drink earlier, and give greater flexibility. Otherwise, I am finding several well priced older wines to buy.

[greatbxfreak]

Dionysus,

I've not finished my report for 2021 yet. These 300+ TNs take an awful lot of time to write.

I can say that my rating concerning CHB will be similar to my wine colleagues' ratings.

[DavidG]

The dynamic in Bordeaux is making money. There is no reason whatsoever to buy 2021. They would make sense at a serious discount (Rauzan at $50 not $75) but the current pricing should not tempt anybody. The exception are smaller or larger formats that you can buy en primeur without paying a premium. I like half bottles, so have decided on one purchase, half a dozen halves of VCC. It fills the vertical, will drink earlier, and give greater flexibility. Otherwise, I am finding several well priced older wines to buy.

Agree 100% Mark. And even if it made financial sense, I'm too old to be buying young Bordeaux.

Mark my words: No Bordeaux younger than 2016 will ever again be in my shopping cart. OK, maybe 2019 if a really good deal comes along.

[stefan]

Or maybe 2022 if it is a really good vintage. Or maybe...