Anyone else notice the steep drop in 2006 BDX prices?

[Blanquito]

I was just perusing the internet, wasting time, when I noticed that a bunch of 2006 Bordeaux are much cheaper than they were as futures. I keep reading that such a day would come, but this one seemed to sneak up with little fanfare.

For example,
-Malescot 2006 was $50 at PC as futures; its' now $35.
-Haut Bergey 2006 was $25 at PC as futures; its' now $17.

I know the futures price as I bought some as wedding gifts for friends, and there are lots of other examples too: Lagrange now $36, Duhart Milon now $37, Lafon Rochet now $28, etc. These were much higher on futures. While not cheap by historic standards, someone in the pipeline still must be eating it big.

[Blanquito]

P.S. Again, these are relative to aggressive futures pricing, which I've never before seen fall below retail pricing across the board.
P.P.S. I'm guessing that the 1997's may have done this too, but I wasn't paying attention to prices in that vintage.

[Houndsong]

I didn't realize there was a 2006 vintage. So there you go.

[JonB]

Apparently a large US importer/distributor who historically was a major Bordeaux futures buyer, is offloading their considerable '06 inventory, and has decided not to purchase Bordeaux futures anymore. So the lower prices seem to be widespread....like the Pop's prices (first growths at up to 50% off en primeur prices) and even Pontet-Canet considerably discounted. K&L, JJ Buckley, and many other web and non-web retailers have the new prices often at 20-50% off en primeur. I'm not sure if other distributors are also cutting their loses.

The losers were those who committed to futures....consumers, retailers (if they held stock that didn't sell), distributors.....I imagine the '07s are also going to be a tough sell to consumers at their en primeur prices.

I bought a couple of '06 futures....Dme de Chevalier Blanc and La Croix St Georges....the latter I've seen discounted about 20%.

[Houndsong]

I can't wait to see what happens with the 08s and Parker's outlying scores. When he hangs it up there's going to be some serious dislocation in the futures market.

[DavidG]

Discounts on the '06s still haven't tempted me to buy. Except for 4 btls of Angelus, I'm just not going there.

I've heard that Chateau & Estates, the by-far-biggest importer of Bdx into the US, took a complete pass on '08 futures.

[AlainB.]

I've heard that Chateau & Estates, the by-far-biggest importer of Bdx into the US, took a complete pass on '08 futures.

To my view, this is a serious strategic mistake made by US importers. Prices in € are down by 30% in average from the 2007 level while 2008's quality is excellent to outstanding in some cases (Right Bank).

I see the 2008 boycot as a frustrated retorsion measure to the inadequate pricing of 2007.
If importers had properly made their homework for 2007, this wouldn't have happened! Now they have shelves full of the rather mediocre 2007 and no 2008 to come! Not to mention the possible allocation loss for 2009, a terribly inviting vintage at current pre-harvest stage (the grapes' quality seriously recalls the 2005..).

An example of how to shoot a bullet in ones foot.

[Claudius]

Houndsong,
I don't think so.
There are plenty of experts - try Winemega for example.

I haven't seen a boycott of 08s anyway.
I've bought 4x6 bottle cases though none in 07 and only 2 6 bottle cases in 06. Too expensive in 06 and crap vintage in 07.

2007s were dead here.
The usual importers gave them a miss and could not see the point in buying wine that is over-priced on QPR.

Having said that, there is still a lot of new money out there - and China, India, SE Asia etc are still growing and the buyers are label drinkers.
In Singapore last week and the usal suspects are still buying trophy wines despite not having any idea about them.

[JonB]

....and I'm not sure RP will ever throw in the towell voluntarily....he may stick around into his 80s, just focusing on less areas.

What with '09 being the next vintage of the century.....his charismatic influence on futures will probably not wane soon (although if '08 turns out to be a quality bust, it will be interesting to follow his positioning).