Is wine from the Eurozone (and elsewhere) about to get cheap

[Houndsong]

cheaper?

I wonder how much investment in classy new Spanish wineries is about to go bad.

[DavidG]

You mean because their economy is tanking? Did wine get cheap here when our economy tanked? No... Or does this have to do with exchange rates, which I understand and can predict even less than barrel samples of just-fermented Bdx.

[Houndsong]

Bigger minds than me, and not just guys talking their books, see the need for massive restructuring/composition of Eurozone sovereign debt. So yeah, I'm talking exchange rates, and yeah, I'm talking deflation of asset prices. Not pointing fingers, just wondering.

[DavidG]

As a consumer, I would welcome it. Unless it gets so bad a bunch of my favorite producers go under. So this is another reason to stay on the sidelines for the '09 Bdx en primeur season?

[Tom In DC]

If they keep making the wine and must sell it, then the prices may go down.

If, on the other hand, the producers simply go out of business, then I'd wonder if prices for the wines from the surviving producers might actually rise, given a reduced sum of production trying to satisfy a relatively inelastic demand.

I guess we in the US have to be able to walk away (and hope no one else steps up!) if we have a prayer of a price decline...

[Houndsong]

Euro goes to par with the dollar. I wonder how this is factoring into first tranche pricing.

[Claudius]

The present debt problems in Greece, Portugal, Spain et al will have a nasty impact on wine as it is one of the most sensitive industries to swings.
It may help the consumer in the short term but it will lead to alot of pain and closures, and quality will fall as bodegas economise or merge.
Spain has not really had a strong economy for a long time - don;t forget it was a doctatorship under Franco until 75 and has gone thru a lot of painful reconstruction since.