2009s selling like hotcakes

[AlexR]

The 200 most sought-after labels, that is.

Average price is that of 2005 vintage plus 20%.

There were lots of naysayers, but they have been proved wrong.
Believe me, it is not a pleasure to write this and I wish it had been otherwise!
What it means is that the market for great growths has changed forever.
We are now in the realm of luxury products.

I realize that some châteaux sell in "tranches" and that the first offering can be
considered as "testing the waters".
Well, the waters have been found to be warm and wecoming...

All the best,
Alex R.

[Houndsong]

We should have bought that scruffy classed-growth property a few years ago. Not only would we be wealthy now, we would at least have dibs on some of the wine.

A would only quibble with your observation that we are just "now" in the realm of luxury products. I'd say we are now in the realm of "super luxury," having been in the luxury goods category for quite a while.

[JimHow]

I am not surprised these wines are selling.
They almost always sell out every year.
The Bordeaux winemakers know their products, know their markets, better than anyone else.
Just like any business, large or small.
It's a free world, they can sell them for whatever they want, and I am free to not buy them.

How does the price escalation in Burgundy compare? Those wines have always been pricey but there doesn't seem to be the fanaticism from Asia and the rest of the world for those wines like there is with Bordeaux.

[jal]

The high end Burgundies have gone out of control as well, Jim.

I bought 1997, 1999 and 2001 Mugnier Amoureuses, Musigny and Bonnes Mares on release for $75-$150, the 2005 and 2006 now sell for $350-$1,000
I paid $110 for 1999 Echezeaux from Romanee Conti at Sherry Lehmann, the 2005 and 2006 now sell for $400-$800

I am resigned to the fact that I will never buy a bottle of high end Burgundy or Bordeaux again.

[jal]

That's $400 for the 2006, $800 for the 2005 on the Echezeaux.

And by the way, they are also selling like hotcakes. A retailer told me they save the high end DRC, Mugnier, Roumier, Vogue and Rousseau for their best customers (no longer me) and the demand is huge.

[DavidG]

I'm not that surprised either. I hope those who can afford them and are buying them get enough enjoyment out of them to make it worth it to them.

[AlexR]

David,

You wrote:
"Do you have any numbers to support your claims? Case quantities released from the Chateaus versus cases purchased by consumers".

You cannot pin down the great wines with statistics, which is the big mistake made in a book called "What Price Bordeaux" http://www.amazon.com/What-Price-Bordea ... 1934259209
The only official figures that are kept are by appellation.
Furthermore, the book I cite above refers largely to en primeur prices, and first tranche ones at that.
You can't actually prove a great deal with such figures because they can have little bearing with the actual consumer purchase price... (several intermediaries, mark-ups, price inflation along the way, etc.).

Your question is perfectly logical, but there is no way that market trends can be *proven* as such. The best sounding boards are the brokers (especially) and the négociants. They are the ones confirming the excellent sales of the 2009 name wines. The figures I cited were feedback from the trade and an article in the Bordeaux newspaper.
Of course, you may wonder if there is a conflict of interest with regard to such information, but when sales are sluggish instead of feverish, wine professionals do not hesitate to admit it...

You add
"I think some wines are selling, and some others in great quantity, but the Bordeaux hype machine is really just that".
Yes indeed. Couldn't agree more. And the machine is, by (buy?) and large pretty effective, whether one likes it or not!
Is there any other region that puts on such a circus to whip up interest in a new vintage? I think not...

Haven't seen you on the Wine Berserker's board. Have you started your own? If so, please give me the link.

All the best,
Alex R.

[chris kissack]

Alex

Accepting that you can't "prove" anything relating to success/failure of the Bordeaux en primeur campaign, please can you tell us on what you have based the statement "2009s selling like hotcakes".

[DavidG]

Chris, read Alex's last post, where he says:

"The best sounding boards are the brokers (especially) and the négociants. They are the ones confirming the excellent sales of the 2009 name wines. The figures I cited were feedback from the trade and an article in the Bordeaux newspaper.
Of course, you may wonder if there is a conflict of interest with regard to such information, but when sales are sluggish instead of feverish, wine professionals do not hesitate to admit it..."

[Ramon_NYC]

Chris, read Alex's last post, where he says:

"The best sounding boards are the brokers (especially) and the négociants. They are the ones confirming the excellent sales of the 2009 name wines. The figures I cited were feedback from the trade and an article in the Bordeaux newspaper.]

Figures? What , where?

[JimHow]

I watch places like PJs and NH, those are my barometers, because they tend to mark up their prices much less than most other retailers.
If you look at the latest reduced 2009 futures prices on the PJs site, I predict to you that they will sell every single bottle listed therein at those prices.

http://www.pjwine.com

[AlexR]

Chris,

My sources are:

- My friends in the trade

- This article in Sud-Ouest : http://www.sudouest.fr/2010/07/01/campa ... 8-4626.php

All the best,
Alex

[Ramon_NYC]

PJs as the barometer for overall Bordeaux vintage sales?
Besides, even if they sell them out as you predict, does anybody know whether they'll sell out 5 cases or 500 cases?

[AlexR]

Hi Daniel

>>>1) My name is Daniel, but you may not know that

Sorry, Daniel, your e-mail address just says "d" and I made a mistake.

>>>2) Your post title is way out of line, and based upon no factual evidence to prove it, as you admit.

That's not true .
Please see above.

>>>3) This morning I was offered 3 cases of 2009 Lafite from a negoc in Bordeaux that I do very lil biz with

Lafite is selling particularly well! I don't doubt for a moment what you're saying, just wondering what, if any meaningful conclusions about the overall sales of Lafite worldwide can be drawn from it...

>>>4) Another negoc that I have done a lot of biz with just offered a number of 2009s at still first tranche and second tranche pricing.

Sorry, I don't see your point. This is still very early in the campaign!

>>>So when you say stupid things like "The top 200 Chateaus are selling" can you name me the top 200 Chateaus, because I would have thought I just named a few.

Oh, I'm stupid am I David?
Well, thanks for telling me so .
I only live in Bordeaux and most of my friends are in the trade. How silly of me to believe them!
You, obviously are so much better informed...

>>>I am so sick of the Bordeaux Hype Machine.

The fact is, it has always been thus.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[DavidG]

Chris, read Alex's last post, where he says:

"The best sounding boards are the brokers (especially) and the négociants. They are the ones confirming the excellent sales of the 2009 name wines. The figures I cited were feedback from the trade and an article in the Bordeaux newspaper.]

Figures? What , where?

I was just pointing out Alex's source. I share your skepticism, though, Ramon, given the source.

Figures wouldn't mean anything to me. Maybe they would to someone who knows how much is usually sold through at this point, but even then there could be significant differences from year to year depending on how large the initial tranches are, what the world economy is, etc. All factors that are separate from the actual QPR of the wines. I suspect that the initial tranches did sell well, but that is pure speculation based on the assumption that the first releases were small in quantity and that there are enough consumers who are price-insentitive to snap them up. We wont really know for sure how well the vintage has sold through to consumers until it has all been released in another couple of years and we see how much is sitting on shelves being discounted. And even then there may be holdbacks along the supply chaing.

[AlexR]

Hi again Daniel,

Seems to me you are confusing offers you are receiving on one market with the world market.
Also, many importers have not actually bought the wines they are offering i.e. they wait for orders from their customers before committing to the négociants. As you know, there's a lot of bluffing that goes on, with prices and quantities there yesterday no long applicable today.
The market is thus volatile and it is difficult to draw conclusions...
The en primeur market seen from an international perspective is very difficult to get a handle on from outside Bordeaux. The only way to know what's happening (please forgive the repetition) is to keep your ear to the ground with the merchants and brokers in Bordeaux.
For instance, the US is in poor economic straits, Château and Estate are not in the picture any more, other wines are gaining market share etc. whereas this is not the case in other major markets for Bordeaux wine.

While I cannot come up with comprehensive figures to prove my point can you come up with any to disprove it?

So, it is a question of time to see who's right .

This discussion is ironic to the extent that the famous wines have priced me, personally, out of the market and, like many, I feel the "200 wines" have gone too far.
But that doesn't mean I rule out the possibility of other people waiting to take my place!

Also, buying en primeur frequently defies rationality (for instance, back to back vintages that vary in price by a factor of 2 or more ). You'd think that people would buy 2000s or 2005s if they wanted politically correct vintages with some age at the same price as the 2009s or even significantly cheaper.
But, no, many people want to get in on the ground floor, or perhaps there was a marriage or a birth in that year. In otherwords, the "pipeline" aspect of things doesn't enter into the picture as much as it should!

I saw no indication of wines you mentioned being offered at "low" prices. Please elucidate.

Contrary to what you say, it is still early in the campaign.

If you recall, I mentioned that I don't see your posts any more on Wine Berserkers and had heard that you started your own blog. I couldn't find it on Google. Could you please send the link?

All the best,
Alex

[JonB]

What do hotcakes sell like?

Without facts and comparisons, it is all hot air. The Wine Spectator had an article saying US sales (I presume to retailers) were about 85 percent of 2005. Even if this were true, it is very early in the campaign. One thing 2005 displayed in spades is that it appeared retailers were selling out, but there was no shortage of great wines available in the market.

[Ramon_NYC]

I was just pointing out Alex's source. I share your skepticism, though, Ramon, given the source.

Figures wouldn't mean anything to me. Maybe they would to someone who knows how much is usually sold through at this point, but even then there could be significant differences from year to year depending on how large the initial tranches are, what the world economy is, etc. All factors that are separate from the actual QPR of the wines. I suspect that the initial tranches did sell well, but that is pure speculation based on the assumption that the first releases were small in quantity and that there are enough consumers who are price-insentitive to snap them up. We wont really know for sure how well the vintage has sold through to consumers until it has all been released in another couple of years and we see how much is sitting on shelves being discounted. And even then there may be holdbacks along the supply chaing.

Thanks David. I was aware of what you were pointing out. I just didn't see any absolute figures in any of the posts up until that point. I don't discount anybody's claim here. I only want to be informed, especially if actual/real numbers are provided.

[JimHow]

I just go on my own personal experience, Ramon, with PJs and NH. I don't think we are going to get any hard and fast figures from any source. Based on what I've seen, those two places mark up their prices much less than any other retailers of which I am aware. Premier Cru has generally low futures pricing too but I just don't pay attention to them because I don't trust them anymore. So when I see PJs offering Lagrange at $52, Talbot at $57, Lanessan at $17, Gloria $38, Clos du Marquis at $50, Chasse $29, etc., etc., I'm pretty confident that there has been minimal mark up and, dare I say it, especially as compared to California, Italy, etc., those prices, while expensive, do not seem outrageous to me, especially if the vintage truly is as great as it appears.

[stefan]

Here is the '09 St Julien part of the latest offer sheet from a local distributor:

Saint Julien
Gloria $480 91/93* 90/93
Gruaud Larose $785 92/94+ 94/97 Sold Out
La Croix Beaucaillou $499 88/90 89/92
Talbot $699 92/94 92/95 Sold Out
Saint Pierre $899 94/98 91/94 Sold Out
Clos Marquis $670 91/93 89/92
Beycheville - LIMITED $855 92/94+ 90/93
Brainaire Ducru - LIMITED $870 92/95 92/95 1
Leoville Poyferre - EXTREMELEY LIMITED $1,375 97/100 93/96 Sold Out
Leoville Barton $1,199 93/95+ 92/95 Sold Out
Ducru Beaucaillou - EXTREMELY LIMITED $2,995 96/98 96/99
Leoville Las Cases - EXTREMELY LIMITED $3,895 96/100 95/98

High prices (prices are what retailers pay), but things are selling. My wine merchant friend says he has sold a lot of futures (none to me), but mostly lower level items. I might buy Lanessan at $196 + 11%, but probably nothing else. I would rather buy older vintages.

[Houndsong]

I have not known Alex yet to be a tool of the Bdx hype machine, though the charge seems implicit in some of the responses to this thread.

[JimHow]

I think Alex is a double secret agent spy.

Or at least he would make a good one in the movies....

[DavidG]

I agree with Jim that there are a bunch of '09s that sound like very good QPR in the $20-40 range - just mostly ones I've never heard of before. Perhaps they were much cheaper in '05-'08 but if they are good as the notes suggest, they are "worth it" in the overall scheme of things vis-a-vis other regions. It's the bigger names, the "200 wines" Alex refers to, that have gone crazy price-wise, at least for my wallet.

With respect to backfilling with '00s - I haven't researched this extensively but Daniel P sent an email a few days ago comparing prices of a bunch of excellent '00s (and some other vintages) he currently has for sale to the en primeur prices of the same '09s. In most cases the '00s were $10-30/btl more expensive than the '09s. That may sound like a great deal to get the wines now, with 10 years of age on them, and no worries about someone in the supply chain going bankrupt between now and release. Or it may give you pause as to where the wines have been over the last 10 years. Not trying to point any fingers at Daniel's shop (I'm a customer), just pointing out that one must consider provenance risk with older wines. In my case, I'm happy I loaded up on '00s when they were about 1/3 of their current cost.

[AlexR]

Daniel,

Thanks for the blog link. I'll go and visit.

The reality is complex. We're talking 200 châteaux, sold through countless distributors in umpteen countries.
Of course, no one can come up with the magic figures, the specific empirical responses to the questions asked on this thread.
And no one will ever be able to, because the Bordeaux system is a closed shop, with even insiders unaware of where the wines go, at what price, and for what quantities.
Things change in the blink of an eye, with wines being traded back and forth not only internationally, but also on the Bordeaux marketplace itself.

In the same way that vintage years are all different, so are all en primeur campaigns.
And sometimes our memories play tricks on us about what happened years ago...

The US is not such a major market for Bordeaux, but has long been way up there for the great growths. 2009 may very well be a watershed year in which America's share of a great vintage first took a hit.
China's share (much via the UK) is not just fantasy. Statistics *are* kept of exports by appellation. So, in 3 years we'll be able to track how much Pauillac, St. Julien and Margaux (appellations consisting predominantly of great growths) went to Hong Kong, which has become a platform for all of Asia.

I understand the resistance to the prices of the most famous wines. But, clearly not everyone is resisting!

Best regards,
Alex R.

[AlexR]

Daniel,

The number of tranches, how big they are, where the wine is being sold, how much is being held back... all these things vary from estate to estate. This is why informed opinions hold sway rather than angels on the head of a pin that no one, but no one can count.
And of course, it's a chain: estate to broker to negociant to importer to distributor to wholesaler to retailer to you - and that's the *simplest* version, not forgetting that each country is different... Only people in the trade from the supply end can have an more-or-less valid overview of what the score is with en primeur sales.

It makes me laugh to read in the media that "big, bad speculation has reared its ugly head".
"Speculation" is a bit like "globalization": words being bandied about to describe trends that are in fact as old as the hills.
OK, maybe the insitutionalized investment in first growths is more recent...

Some rich people in Europe are buying the most expensive wines to avoid inheritance taxes. The wine can age for decades and be declared for personal consumption. And who's going to check whether it has actually been drunk or not? Heck, do the math: just 10 or 20 cases of Latour or Margaux, that's a lot of dough. And the lucky heir can either sell or enjoy!

Sure, there has been some vocal objection to pricing on the 2009 great growths. But, when you think about it, it's actually in keeping with the good ole American way: capitalism, PR, marketing, what have you. What would you do in the shoes of a famous château owner? The wines are selling well. What inducement is there to sell short?
If, for whatever reason, the market should collapse like a house of cards, if the goose that laid the golden egg should develop a liver ailment, the Bordelais will, very quickly, draw the logical conclusion and sell the wine at a lower price. This is hardly hypothetical: it has happened many times, but rarely with a vintage of the caliber of 2009.

Calvin Coolidge said "the business of America is business". That pretty much describes the Bordeaux trade as well. They charge what the market will bear. Simple as that although it can be very frustrating at times, I'll be the first to admit!

Best regards,
Alex R.

[RDD]

Alex

.......
I just got offered 2009 Lafite, Carruades and Duhart Milon at 1st tranche pricing from a broker inthe US. Never got an allocation before. Happily accepted though.

....

Sounds like they sold like "hot cakes" to you.

[AlexR]

Hi Daniel,

Happy Fourth of July. The American community had a picnic down by the Garonne and I just got back.
We had Clairet de Bordeaux (under 3 euros a bottle and a very nice drink and 2006 Ch. Sainte Colombe, a Côtes de Castillon from Gérard Perse that was "modern" but fit the context just fine.

Please don't misunderstand me. You know the New York market and the Amrican market infinitely better than me. I never thought otherwise. I was just trying to speak about the other main markets, the Big Picture insofar as I am able to apprehend it (them).

The fact that you were offered Lafite on a first or second tranche basis may have a different meaning to the one you deduced. It could be a sign of respect for the success and solidity of your buiness (yes, Daniel!), and it could also be a sign that times are changing, with new players in the game seeking new partners, rather than a reflection of poor sales...

I'm not sure I understood the end of your last post correctly. Did you mean that you have had offers for 2009s under the first tranch price?

All the best,
Alex R.

[AlexR]

Daniel,

I was talking from an historical perspective, not the current state of the market.

I have heard people predict "one hell of a comeuppance" to the Bordelais more times than I can count. But it has only happened once in my lifetime, in 1974/75. There, the bottom *did* fall out of the market. And there was a fire sale.

However, most price slashing does not affect the Bordelais at all.
2007 is a case in point.
With hindsight (because we can only know know this things in retrospect), the 2007s seem overpriced. And there's a good chance that many of them will be dumped.
But who's left holding the baby? Not the Bordelais, because they sold the wine two years before it was even bottled!

The system of checks and balances comes into play. Did those people who bought the 2007s en primeur get screwed? The answer is: yes and no. In the short term - although no one could say so at the time - they will lose out. But, by buying their allocactions, they will be in line for wines much more in demand from vintages that have better press (2008 + 2009).
Some people, of course, denounce this system as akin to organized crime. But, in fact, there is a strong fairness factor to it all.
"You don't want my 2007s? Fine. But the next time there's a vintage in big demand, ciao baby"!
I can understand the château owners' policy.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[AlexR]

Hi Daniel,

Yes, I believe that most of the great growths have sold their 2007s even if, like the sales of 2009s, there is no way of proving this.
The wines are "in the pipeline" and being distributed around the world.
There will obviously be some consumer resistance in light of the 2008 and 2009 vintages on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wines were heavily discounted in some countries.
You might not see them in New York because America traditionally buys heavily into the well-reputed vintages and tends to avoid the others. But they're there in other places.

With the allocation system, many members of the trade bite the bullet and buy to maintain their position.

For instance, you were offered some 2009 Lafite. For argument's sake if you bought it, and were happy with the purchase, wouldn't you be tempted to buy into the next vintage, which is unlikely to be as good as 2009?

All the best,
Alex

[DavidG]

Alex, jumping in on your question about buying "the next vintage" of Lafite, or whatever other wine you might name...

There are myriad reasons why people buy wine

I would expect a retailer's or reseller's perspective to be different from one who purchases for consumption. I would also expect a retailer would rather buy only those wines he or she felt they could profit from, but then there are all sorts of complications like having to buy less desirable years or wines in order to have access to desirable wines. Tie-ins are supposed to be illegal, I think, in some jurisdictions, but that doesn't mean they don't happen.

As a consumer, I might be tempted to buy the next vintage even if not as good as the '09, depending on whether it represents good value to me. "Value" might be influenced by quality, price, how interested I am in tasting "off" or "non vintage of the millenium" wines for comparison sake and to understand the Chateau vs. how driven I am to have "only the best," whether or not I will get better treatment from my retailer by buying every year, or if the particular vintage has some senitmental value (e.g. wedding or birth year).

[AlexR]

David,

As we've said, nobody can come up with precise statistics for the great growths.
So, it seems doubtful that it can be proved convincingly one way or the other for the 2007s.

You wrote:
"Maybe some negociants bought their allocations, but most sales pretty much ended right there."
There is thus a problem of definition here.
To me, the wines are sold once the château has found a buyer (this is the point of view from Bordeaux, as opposed to the end of the supply chain).
The stock levels of those 2007s with the negociants and their customers down the line is another story. I'll agree that these are probably higher than in better-reputed vintages.

I'm sorry, the Wine Searcher method does not seem statistically valid to me because you are comparing vintages a year apart, and the older one,
beside being better considered, has had a full year more to be distributed…
Also, I don't know to what extent Wine Searcher takes account of such important markets for Bordeaux as Belgium, Germany, Japan, etc.

In the last analysis, at whatever level the 2007s are bunching up, it seems fairly certain that they will be sold at a fairly low price.
You might think it would make the people who bought them rueful, but everyone understands that buying futures is a crap shoot.
It's the name of the game.

All the best,
Alex

[DavidG]

My first reaction to those numbers was "Odd, why are there fewer '07s left for sale than '06s? The '06s were much better regarded, they should be gone and the '07s should be lingering." But it makes sense that there are less '07s available at retail because the negociants are still stuck with them. The rest of the supply chain down the line didn't want anything to do with them?

[AlexR]

David,

The 2007 great growths were not shipped, some of them, until summer of 2009 at the earliest.

Therefore, the 2006s have had a lot more time to be actually, physically sold.

As to where the wine is "stuck",as you say, the answer is both in Bordeaux and all over the world.
That is because in much the same way as the great châteaux work on an allocation system, major importers apply the same to *their* customers! If any dumping goes on, it will be, IMHO, most likely by importers/distributors rather than négociants.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[AlexR]

By the way, I saw a friend who works at Ch. Haut Bailly today.

She says their 2009 sold out in a matter of hours.

Best regards,
Alex R.

[greatbxfreak]

And Haut Bailly is more expensive than f.i. Domaine de Chevalier, but imho significantly lesser wine.

All these ITB people on this forum - I've great difficulty to understand them.

[DavidG]

Alex, what does "sold out" mean? I'm not trying to be difficult but I am really wondering. Did Haut Bailly sell every bottle of '09 that they produced to the negociants? Or did they sell every bottle of the X% of the '09 that they put out on the market, while they held on to (100-X)% until they saw which way the wind was blowing?

Now I'll be difficult: Even if they did sell 100% of their '09 production to negociants, that doesn't tell us anything about how accepting the consumer will be. The negociant's job is to act as the arbitrageur by soaking up the wine so the chateaux can sell through, regardless of the downstream market. So the vintage may have been a success for the chateaux, at least in the short term, but that doesn't make it a Success overall.

[DavidG]

Here's an article from Jancis Robinson on the topic. The negociants do buy it all, but it doesn't answer the questions I pose above: how much did the chateaux put up for sale, and how easy will it be to move the wines through to the consumer?

[JimHow]

Interesting article. I'm always interested how wine writers, when they refer to Pontet-Canet, always mention Alfred Tesseron. He's an interesting personality.

[AlexR]

David,

You wrote:
"Alex, what does "sold out" mean? I'm not trying to be difficult but I am really wondering"

It's true that I forgot to ask my friend if they were selling in "tranches" or not. Sometimes, châteaux test the waters with a small quantity, and then up the ante one or two more times thereafter to take advantage of increases in the market. But this all depends on the château and is by no means systematic, which explains the complexity of trying to pin down statistics of great growth wines en primeur!
What my friend meant is that when the château put the wine on sale via their selected brokers to the négociants, all that they made available was snapped up very quickly. Sorry, I am unable to tell you what percentage of the crop that was. I should have asked!

You then go on to say:
"The negociant's job is to act as the arbitrageur by soaking up the wine so the chateaux can sell through, regardless of the downstream market. So the vintage may have been a success for the chateaux, at least in the short term, but that doesn't make it a Success overall".

Ultimately, you are right. However, once the château sells the wine, any distribution challenges downstream are basically not their problem. What this usually amounts to is one or possibly two vintages out there on the market that encounter difficulty selling. But such problems generally affect just those vintages and thus only part of the market, and will leave the château unscathed because their part of the sales process is long past! Also, let's not overlook the risk factor often pointed out in discussions such as this. One needs to take not only vintage quality, but also vintage volume into account. A small vintage of whatever quality has an effect on the market. So, people buying futures never, ever know what tomorrow will bring. Which explains (even above and beyond the allocation system) why people buy in less than stellar years: because next year could be even less good, with less wine. You never know. All too often, people see things with hindsight. The 2007 vintage is a good example.

So, getting back to your main point: yes, in theory, poor sales at retail level could back up, domino-like, to the source and wreak almighty havoc. However, in practice, this is extremely rare. Every part of the distribution chain assumes their responsibility, and the risk that entails. As already mentioned on this thread, if a link in the chain has to make a sacrifice at one moment in time, for one vintage, they know very well that they will more than make up for it in vintages that everyone wants. This has been proved time and time again. Supply and demand in its most simple form.

Trying to see this from the widest possible perspective, if Bordeaux were to get a bad name in terms of value for money, and prices spiral out of control, consumer revolt could seriously set the cat among the pigeons. However, I'm thinking that for every person like you or me who has been buying Bordeaux for years and is taken aback by the present pricing, there is a young person with money (probably in Asia…) who just figures this is the way Bordeaux is, and doesn't shrink for spending that kind of money. Especially since, more than ever, serving a fine great growth wine is a way of branding yourself, a sophisticated status symbol…

Best regards,
Alex

[DavidG]

Thanks for the explanation, Alex. I understand what you are saying and think you are correct that this will not come back to damage the chateaux themselves. Certainly not this year if they are sold out, and probably not next year either unless they do something stupid to alienate the negociants. Perhaps I wasn't being very clear if my reply suggested that the Chateau were hurting. The chateaux and the negociants will come to whatever terms necessary to maintain the current business practice in my opinion. I was curious as to whether they had sold their entire production or only part of it, and I guess we don't really know the answer to that question. At the prices they got, they didn't have to sell their entire production!

What I was really trying to say is that we don't yet know how much, if any, pain there will be down the line in trying to move the '09s. Yes they are record-settingly expensive, but it is also a great vintage. There may be enough people with enough money out there who want the best so that no one will be stuck with bottles gathering dust in a warehouse. It's not like '07, where prices were (relatively) high and quality was (relatively) low. You also make a good point about quantity. Quantity, quality, price and value, economic condistions, these are all factors. Time will tell if consumers buy them at the current prices, or if we'll see significant discounting.