Is 2009 a "bargain"?

[JimHow]

My anecdotal observations are that this vintage, while really, really expensive, is not silly like 2010.
And the wines seem to be of a quality and style that is universally acclaimed.
I'm curious to hear about the 2009 vintage buying experiences of BWEers.

[DavidG]

It's all relative, Jim. A lot of '09s are selling for less than '10s, and if you prefer the forward lush style of the '09s then by buying '09s you would be getting a wine you liked better at a lower price than the '10s.

I guess that might make them a "bargain" compared to the 2010s for some people. Not in my book. If I had Bill Gates' money, maybe. But wine just isn't worth $500/btl to me. I don't care how good it is.

Further, this sort of thinking just contributes to the price spiral. The new vintage costs 20% more than the last vintage, and the last vintage hasn't increased in price (yet)? Gee, that's great news - it must mean the last vintage is a "bargain!" A sucker's deal if you ask me. At some point the price/value relationship tilts to the "no sale" side of the equation.

I was pretty sure I reached that point with '06 but couldn't resist a few bottles of Angelus. Said it with '07 and '08 and stuck to my guns: zero bottles purchased. I said '09 was even worse - great wines, in my style, but prices too far over the top. And then I lost my resolve and bought a bunch as I do love that lush style and believe the wines will turn into another set of '82s or '90s with time. But almost all my buys were in the $50/btl and under category (except Angelus, dammit!).

[JonB]

I bought four and a half cases ealy on of 2009s...Pontet Canet, Montrose, Poyferre, Duhart and Pavie Macquin. They were expensive, but became more expensive not long after (so no, even though the price has a small apparent rise, it is no bargain).

I've resisted the urge to buy more, but will probably taste at a UGC event before making that decision. While I'm not "priced out"n it doesn't make sense to speculate on en primeurs, at I've been discovering many Washington wines which are up my alley palate-wise, are earlier drinking, and less expensive. As well, my experiences more selectively buying older vintages in the auction market is taking the place of buying new vintages.

[pomilion]

I bought about a dozen cases of 09s early on -- Duhart, Tertre Roteboeuf, Poyferre, Pavie Macquin, Clinet, Pontet Canet, Beausejour Duffau and Malescot -- and I'm sure I'll buy a quite a few additional cases of less expensive 09s down the road, particularly after trying them at next January's UGC tasting. '09 sounds like a vintage I'll particularly enjoy. I wish I'd been collecting for 20-30 years and had a cellar-full of amazing bordeaux I bought for a song... but don't since I only started collecting 9-10 years ago. I'm as upset as anyone else about the crazy price escalation, particularly starting with the 05s, but I want to have a certain number of nice bottles in my cellar to age over the next 10-25 years (I'm in my early 50s). I'm not convinced, barring a truly catastrophic worldwide economic collapse, that we are likely to see bordeaux price deflation at any point in the future, so I may as well get some of the more expensive wines now before they are even further out of sight. We are all bemoaning Pontet Canet, but I've been equally sad/distressed to see wines like Cos, Ducru, Palmer, VCC, Eglise Clinet, Pichon Baron, LLC, Angelus and many others escalate out of my comfort zone over the past decade as well. Angelus is a heart-breaker -- I have various vintages from '90 to '06 but won't be buying it any more, among many others. Tertre Roteboeuf too, though I have a particular fondness/weakness for it and have continued to buy though in decreasing quantities. It sucks, but I'm willing (though not happy) to pay $100 for a domestic cab blend like Ridge Monte Bello, so for a terrific bottle of bordeaux I'm willing to shell out that much. Not happy, of course, I love to find nice bordeaux cheaper than that, but I'm grudgingly willing to pay that much. But once I reach my target accumulation level (which will be relatively soon), I'll shift 90% of my bordeaux buying to sub-$75 wines. In the meantime, I'm very focused on the 09 vintage -- not only is it cheaper than 2010 but 09 is a style I'll prefer for many of the wines and they'll be ready to drink much sooner in many cases.

Dave

PS -- but no, it's not a "bargain"... it's at the extreme outer edge of my tolerance. A lot more attractive than 2010 for multiple reasons though.

[Nicklasss]

The last vintages that were ''bargains'' where the 1993 (89$), 1994 (110 $), 1995 (150 $) and 1996 (a little bit less than 200 $). Between (...), these were the prices of the 5 First Growth here in Québec. From that point, the prices never stop to go up and up, and sky-rocketed since the 2003-2005 vintages.

So no, 2009 (1250 $) is not a bargain.

I don't know what curve they're following, but not the one that represent ''increase of life cost for middle class people''...

Nic

[JimHow]

The reason why I asked the question above is because I see wines like Branaire, d'Issan, Talbot, etc., in the $60 range for 2009. I see the Cantemerles and Carbonnieuxs in the $30 range. Patrick was referring to that Rouget wine for $26 (rated 91-93* by HWSRN). Then there are the Lanessans, Cap de Faugeres, etc., for $15-17. These prices do not seem off the wall to me. As opposed to 2010, where you have wines like Beychevelle going for over $100, Lagrange over $75, etc., etc. It just seems that some of those 2009 prices we saw as far back as 2005, and even 2003 in some cases. 2010, on the other hand, seems to be a real tangible shift upwards in pricing, to absurd levels.

[JonoB]

I think 2010 prices are a result of one thing... The previously reasonable "Parker babies" feel that they priced too low!

Now that is due to one thing. The speculators bought, but without the huge increases that came with the cheap 08s there was nothing to less and now no cash to buy the equally as good but different style 2010s. Less acclaim is a big word... Other than HWSRN everyone was positive about the vintage. The merchants weren't, but I don't give many much of a palate anyway! Most just try and second guess the critics opinions. Everyone was less buoyant after te scores but were very pro when reading other critics. I have championed everything but the pricez. At 09 prices I'd buy 10, but at 09 prices I see absolutely NO value and some prices have dropped, but not to a level that makes them good value. Such is the world of Bordeaux we live in.

Greece is close to defaulting, if they go, so will Portugal and Ireland, at which point the Euro will be in a mess... Britain, USA have huge amounts of debt.

I wouldn't buy much into China holding lots of greenbacks and gold, as it is all funded by Japanese ODA, and by foreign Investment which unless China can create a proper Market outside the upper echelons, China will be in for a shock if the West comes unstuck. They need an outlet for their produce...

If the Bordelais think they can get away with even 09 prices next year, they are sorely mistaken. 08 prices maybe too high. The Bordelais have already forgotten that 90% of sales were to Europe and speculators (who were riding the mini-wave of uncertain recovery). That recovery is much less certain now!

Now if credit was easy, the economy and our bonds were booming, perhaps we would complain and say well this is life and pay up... But it isnt and I can have 10 year old equivalents for the same price if not less all in. So why bother with this lot!

[JonoB]

Jim, I think the good prices maybe a consequence of prices lowering as they are still kicking about because they were too high to begin with!!

[Blanquito]

The discounting of 2009 continues... Premier Cru just has several 2009s on "weekend special" that we're 40-60% off... I picked up a few Rouget for $26, since there's no boycott on the 2009's.

[JonB]

I bought 2005 Branaire futures for $51. Most if not many 2005s escalated in price over the course of the campaign in response to strong demand....partly because of a strong economy, partly because most reviewers came out with 3 reviews (barrel, bottle, and release). It's now for sale for $70-90ish. ( I bought 2004 Branaire pre-arrival for $28).

For 2009 Branaire en primeur price of $60-70 per bottle may not seem that much more compared to 2005, but it is a +/- 20% increase over 2005s initial futures release. So if you are comparing first tranche en primeur prices, 2009 was generally expensive compared to 2005, but it remains to be seen if 2009s will be more than 2005s when the '09s are released....it doesn't look like they will. There is just not the demand in the US to push up prices for 2009s beyond their high en primeur prices (except for a few select wines).

However, demand for 2009s may be stimulated again by RP's (or WS, or other major critic's) next 2009 review. IMHO the "3-reviews" of highly rated vintages by major publications really hypes up demand.

So 2009s are probably the second costliest first tranche prices ever for Bordeaux, behind the 2010s, but more expensive than 2005s. It just seems to me like it is cheaper to look at past vintages rather than new releases.

[pomilion]

Obviously it's all relative. I spent $250 (face value) plus a ridiculous "service" fee each for two tickets to Buffalo Springfield last weekend. It was a really cool show (also love Gillian Welch and Dave Rawlings, who opened for them) but was it "worth" $550 for two tickets...? Maybe not, especially when I think about how many great concerts I went to in the 70s and 80s for $15-40/ticket... But I went anyway.

The 09s are obviously the second most expensive bordeaux vintage ever. But I expect I'll be buying a lot of $20-70 bottles over the next year or two. I hadn't really thought about the timing of Parker's next 09 reviews, but now that I do it's very unfortunate in that they're currently scheduled (iirc) to be published at the end of December prior to the UGC tastings... I agree that multiple reviews of highly rated vintages is, in addition to score inflation itself and out-of-control descriptive hyperbole from Parker the Spectator, Suckling and others, a major contributor to the hype machine. Really wish I'd have the opportunity to taste the 09s, particularly the more modestly priced bottles, before Parker's next round... They'll in many cases be more expensive than 05, which sucks, but less than '10, will mature sooner, and the vintage profile seems attractive to me.

[JimHow]

I think you've stated my position pretty well, pomilion.

[JimHow]

Just read today's latest Premier Cru 2010 release. More stupid prices.
This boycott will be easy.

[JCNorthway]

Jim,

I saw the Premier Cru email and had the same reaction. This is one of those times when a weak dollar is not a good thing!

[Houndsong]

Discounting of 2009?

JJ Buckley has actually raised the price of 2009 Gloria from $35 to $39, no doubt to square it against the 2010, which is north of $40 for the same Parker points. No doubt this trend will continue as Jim and others seek out "bargains" in the until now record-setting 2009 vintage.

It's interesting too the revisionist claim that the vintage is "universally acclaimed". I recall that a lot of Brits especially were dismissive of it as obvious and Cali-esque, an "American's" Bordeaux vintage. Have they changed their minds now? Remember, in general terms it's described as low acid, high alcohol, and uber-ripe, with many right bankers way over the top and reeking of whiskey barrel. Yum.

[pomilion]

I've definitely seen "whiskey barrel" comments here and there (iirc K&L's en primeur report was particularly focused on this), and many of the wines are ripe and high in alcohol. But the vast majority of the critics I've read generally think it's a great vintage, albeit with exceptions. It's certainly a ripe, forward, early-maturing vintage for many estates, and if that's not to one's taste the 08s (among recent vintages) are a screaming value in comparison. I've tasted quite a few 08s, including at last January's UGC, and found many of them a bit under-fruited and overly acidic for my taste. But that's just me, I tend to like more concentrated, forward vintages.