When President Obama is re-elected!!

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:46 pm

I figured Florida to go for Romney, but who knows?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:11 pm

Hello all. Been away a long time. I guess some catching up is in order. A few years back I began to have some significant sinus issues and ultimately had corrective surgery, which does seem to have solved the issues for which it was intended. Unfortunately, since that time I have effectively lost my sense of smell. It's not totally gone; there are times when I can pick up things, though much more muted, like trying to smell through a straw or from a distance. There are also times when I just sense the same, strong, strange and unidentifiable smell frequently throughout the day, like I have something chemical sprayed on my shirt, and it overwhelms everything else. It's a phantom, I think. (For the MD's in the group, I did have MRI's at the time of the surgery.) Any way, I probably have about 10% of the sense I once had. I had hoped it would return, but at this point it seems pretty unlikely.

It goes without saying that this has been pretty devastating. Wine has been a passion of mine for most of my life. I was seriously into it before I turned twenty. It simply won't likely ever be the same for me. For quite a while I preferred not to read about it or think about it much. I still to this day get probably 20-30 emails a day from retailers and the like from my days chasing vintages and such. Makes it hard to forget. In all honesty I still have moments where it depresses me a bit. But ultimately I realize that life is full of more important things and I've been blessed in many other ways, and I feel ridiculous for fretting about something like this.

Consequently, some time ago I disposed of most of my cellar, particularly at the high end. I still have plenty of wine and I still drink it with some regularity. But mostly now it's a memory with intermittent flickers of the sensory experience it used to be. It makes little sense for me to pursue high end wines, where the premium is all in the nuance, since nuance is exactly what I am no longer able to appreciate much. I dabble now in the middle range and below mostly, and don't buy much except for what my wife prefers. I only open "special" bottles for others, hoping it's a day I'll have more on the ball. You take what you get.

In any case, I didn't come here to complain and whine. I was looking through the site recently and came across this thread. Like many of you, I also have an interest in politics and I am of course following the race as you are. I always enjoy hearing different points of view, and I think mine are a bit different than many here in some ways. I thought maybe I could add something, maybe learn something. I really don't have much of use to contribute to any other thread here any more. I thought it would be weird for me to jump in now without an honest explanation of where I've been. So there it is.

If it's okay with everyone, with that out of the way, I'll weigh in a little on some of the issues raised and bat it around from time to time with you all into the Fall. Cheers!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:30 pm

I had heard about your problem, Scott, what a cruel fate! I predict you will drink fine wines again in the future. I look forward to your comments on this thread, especially since you live in the ground zero county in southern Ohio that could decide the national election! What do you think: Who is going to win Ohio?

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:44 pm

Even FOX!!!

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 45, Romney 39 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 45, Romney 43 Obama +2

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 4:13 pm

Romney is jumping for joy at those poll numbers against the incumbent seven months out, Bacchus.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:13 pm

Jim, interesting poll out in the past few days. Ohio is statistically a toss up at this point; one day Obama will have a small edge, the next poll is reversed. What's interesting is that something like 70% of Obama supporters say they're voting for Obama while about 65% of Romney supporters say they're voting against Obama. In other words, there still isn't much enthusiasm for Romney. At least some of that, as you suggested earlier, is likely wounding from an ugly primary, but I don't see the Right truly falling in love with Romney. They will hold their noses and vote for him. He would be smart, after the convention, to move back to the middle, and I suspect he will. He is potentially positioned to appeal to independents more than Newt or Santorum could've. But he runs the risk of inviting a third party candidate that would give it to Obama in a landslide.

I agree with David above. I just don't think the racism argument holds water. The man was elected, fairly handily, by these same people. If we're talking about the far right, racist or not, they were never supporting him any way, so nothing's changed there. One could also frankly make the argument that there are as many voting for him because of race as against him. The venom now is simply a widening gulf in ideology, coupled, I think, by a change in the way we communicate. The tone and tenor of conversation generally is less polite and more aggressive, owing likely to the impersonal nature and relative anonymity of social media, I believe. Our local paper instituted a policy on their blogs - from sports to opinion - that real names must be used because it was getting so ad hominem and coarse. I think many have forgotten how much venom there was for Bush. He was burned and hung in effigy, as was Palin, etc. If we're being honest, neither side has the market cornered on civility.

Regarding Jim's comment above, I also believe the economy is hobbled, long term, probably permanently. At current rates and policy, all of the tax revenue for my children and my children's children has already been spent. If we froze everything right now - all spending and activity, it would take all of the next two generations of tax revenue to be even again. That is simply astounding and unsustainable. I suspect I have a different view than many here about the sources of the problem and the fixes, but regardless, the posturing and inactivity on both sides is criminal at this point.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 6:55 pm

Welcom back Scott. Very sorry to hear of your loss. Sounds like you've adapted as well as anyone might. I'm glad you feel you can join us for some of the non-vinous discussion. That's one of the things that is unique about BWE - we seem to be able to have discussions of potentially divisive topics without devolving into the ad hominem attacks that come so easily when we're sitting behind a keyboard and monitor. (I'd say that even if you didn't agree with me...)

I don't know about the economy. Yes, the middle class is disappearing and there appear to be fundamental structural problems, but the phoenix has risen from the ashes so many times in the past that I choose to believe we'll eventually find our way out of this hole. Economists have always been better at describing the past than predicting the future.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 7:05 pm

Hey Dr. Scott - good to see you back!

I was going to make a comment along the lines of "When either side calls the other 'bloviating schmoes', there must be quite a canyon between the two", but your "neither side has the market cornered on civility" sounds much better.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 7:42 pm

I am sorry to hear about your loss of smell, Scott, but delighted to have you posting again.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:00 pm

Thanks Jim, David, Tom and Bill for the well wishes. Life goes on and is still glorious.

I admire your optimism, David. Hope you're right!

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:20 pm

Dave Barry would probably say that "Bloviating Schmoes" would make a good name for a rock band.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:43 pm

Tom, needs a front man, like Wild Eyed Whettle and the Bloviating Schmoes...

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 10:38 pm

Scott,

Good to hear from you. Sorry to hear about the challenges you've endured, but glad to have you back sharing ideas.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 12:15 pm

(...and just to be completely clear, Tom, I was not remotely intending to imply that you are either bloviating or a schmoe. Or even wild-eyed for that matter! Just like the band name with a front man. Could as easily be Jimmy Howitzer and the Bloviating Schmoes, or maybe Scentless Scott and the Bloviating Schmoes...

)

Thanks, Jon.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 2:20 pm

Hey I like that, we're looking to name my band right now as we speak!

I was watching C-Span last night. Watched Romney's speech to a group of big time fundraisers in Arizona yesterday. He was introduced by the Republican National Chairman and by John McCain. He was devastating! He has his message finely tuned. At the top of his game. He indicted Obama's record point after point, then every once in a while he would throw in a Reaganesque aw-shucks, I've met the man, he's a good man, it's his policies that are bad for the country moment.... Brilliant stuff, I have no doubt Team Obama is shaking in their boots. Man, are the Republicans energized in ousting obama. We'll see what David Plouffe is made of in this election. is he truly the boy genius or was he just in the right place at the right time in 2008?

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:16 pm

Romney sure has his message and his delivery well-honed. We'll see how it holds up under duress. He's been prepared for a long time...

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:50 pm

>>
Jimmy Howitzer and the Bloviating Schmoes
>>

Great name for a band!

The < 14% taxpayer is toast, Jim.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:13 pm

stefan wrote:The < 14% taxpayer is toast, Jim.

Not the ones whose millions are earned in tax shelters and capital gains.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:26 pm

I mean as a presidential candidate.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 7:24 am

Playing to your fears, Jim:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/ ... 40520.html

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:54 pm

Am sorry to hear this, obviously wine is just one of the smells of life.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Apr 23, 2012 5:03 am

"Democrats are better than Republicans at the small and nasty stuff."

?????

Lee Atwater?
Karl Rove?

They invented and perfected this stuff. Well, if not the small and nasty stuff, then the big and nasty stuff. The Republicans have all but cornered the market on it, and Dems don't even appear to be trying hard to play catch-up. Which is really the reason Obama is at risk. Though he does seem to be adapting that old Clinton hit-'em-back-in-the-same-news-cycle mentality. Should be an interesting 6 months.

Mike Christensen · Post by **Mike Christensen** » Tue Apr 24, 2012 11:53 pm

DavidG wrote:"Democrats are better than Republicans at the small and nasty stuff."

If Billy Bob Kristol says it, you can pretty much bet it's wrong. I think the only time Billy Bob is ever right is on opposite day. But he probably screws that up too...

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:30 am

This f'kin guy. Any day now he's going to start wearing shoulder pads in his suits (which he will resume wearing now that he's nailed down the "I own two shotguns" crowd), calling his wife "mommy," tilting his head, and saying, "well ..." and " now there you go again." Is Peggy Noonan writing his speeches yet?

"It's morning again in America. A gentle overnight Bain has left a fresh dew on the lawn ...."

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:38 am

Gotta admit, Mitt gave a good speech after winning tonight's primaries. Good rhetorical strength to it. Mind you, if you paid close attention to his definition of "fairness," I'd be leery if I didn't already have at least $10 million+ in the bank.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:48 am

Have you ever noticed that Peggy Noonan is incapable of writing a column without mentioning Reagan at least a half dozen times? Young Marco looked great on the front page of the WSJ. Sixteen years of Romney-Rubio.... By the time they're through Samuel Alito will look like Thurgood Fucking Marshall....

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 7:51 am

I don't know, Jim. I remember when Clinton won his first term back in 92. The camera cut to him and Gore happily accepting the results of the election. And one of the talking heads said something like, not only are we looking at the next president of the United States, but also, I believe, the one after that. Oops!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:50 am

That's like saying the Boston Bruins are going to win Game 7 of their series tonight against Washington in the stanley Cup playoffs because they won three Game 7s last year en route to the Stanley Cup. It means nothing. And besides, Gore beat Bush.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:59 pm

My only point, Jim, is that predictions of 16 year reigns are really tricky. Anything can happen in the meantime; the Supreme Court can even reverse what appears to be an electoral victory!

Just a few recent indications that things aren't over yet; just so you can retain some measure of hope:

General Election: Romney vs. Obama National Journal Obama 47, Romney 39 Obama +8
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 49, Romney 43 Obama +6
General Election: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, Romney 43 Obama +6

Arizona: Romney vs. Obama Behavior Research Center Romney 40, Obama 42 Obama +2 [Arizona!]
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 45, Romney 39 Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 46, Romney 42 Obama +4
Florida: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 45, Romney 43 Obama +2
Florida: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5

President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 50, Disapprove 44 Approve +6
President Obama Job Approval NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Approve 49, Disapprove 46 Approve +3

These are tight, to be sure, but they indicate Romney has further to go than Obama, even in a couple of important swing states. And who would have thought Arizona would ever . . .

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:29 pm

Arizona has been in play the last several elections, there are liberal pockets like Tucson and the immigration issue should benefit the Democrats with the Latino vote. One of the problems that Obama will be facing in November is that, in the end, he just has not been that great of a president. I like the guy and I'll vote for him but he is not going to have that extra enthusiasm factor this time around from young people and independent voters. I personally kind of find him detached. I realize he has an impossible job but he hasn't risen to that next level like, say, Clinton did. He strikes me as an upper west side elite intellectual type, to me the problems of the poor like those I see here in Lewiston are an abstraction to him, he lacks that Bobby Kennedy empathy, that touch the cheeks of poor children in Appalacia feeling of their pain. His courting of the Goldman Sachs crowd, his failure to prosecute Wall Street, is a disgrace. He seems like he's surrounded by too many of those phony Eric Holder inside the Beltway career politician types. I give him a B/B-minus... not bad, but this is a time when we need A/A-minus. I give him a HWSRN89. Good, but not great. Not inspiring. And that lack if inspiration may cost him that extra 3-4 percentage swing points in the polls come November.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:47 pm

Can't agree Jim. The problem is not Obama, but guys like you with a man crush on Jack and Bobby. They're dead, Jim. They weren't all that either. Clinton can chalk up 100% of his popularity to a single appearance on Leno (or was it the other guy) and Greenspan's free hookers and blow policies. Then you have the slacker crowd with attention spans shorter than the cycle of a microprocessor. I heard this same sad song about Obama during the midterms: "Gee, he didn't change the world." All the guy did was what he said he would. He mustered enough backing to pass the most complete and controversial social program possibly ever. It's so controversial his opponents have branded it with his name. You may have heard of it. He tried to close Gitmo as promised, but the opposition in Congress was too great. He caught OBL - that alone gets him a 2nd term in my book. The economy in Maine still sucks not because of anything Obama has or hasn't done but because despite four years of foreclosures and bankruptcy neither the private sector nor the public sector has burned off anything like it needs to of the debt it amassed in the preceding 2 decades (see Greenspan/free hookers and blow, supra). So get off your NPR woe is us soapbox. Bain man's coming. Get your women and children inside and lock the doors. Then go out and meet evil head on.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 3:39 pm

will be a very, very close election. It will be interesting to see who is the GOP VP candidate. Romney has to improve his numbers with Hispanics and women to win, IMO.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 5:01 pm

Oh I think he's a B, I just can't give him an A.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 6:35 pm

An 89-pointer. that's a "don't buy" in winespeak. boring as batailley.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Thu Apr 26, 2012 7:20 pm

An 89 is only a don't buy order when there's a cellar full of the 90+ stuff available. When the only option is a 79, no a 84, or is that 82, almost 87, but just for a minute, then back to 79 -- the 89 looks pretty damn good.

Speaking of 89 pointers, has anyone tried the 05 Cos Labory? I don't know what's going on around here, but a case of the stuff has showed up in one of the local stores. I've never tried Cos Labory, so can't help but wonder? Is it any better than Croizet Bages?

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Apr 27, 2012 1:42 am

Just heard Katty Kay (BBC World News America anchor) give the keynote address at our Academy's Mid-Year Forum in DC (our lobbying/political meeting). Two lines I remember from her speech:

Inside Washington/newsie scuttlebutt says Rob Portman, not Marco Rubio gets the nod for VP.

A conservative, a moderate, and a liberal walk into a bar...

...the bartender says...

... "Hi Mitt!"

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed May 09, 2012 9:27 pm

So the Prez (finally) comes out for gay marriage during election season.
I predict that by this time next week he'll be 8-10 points behind in the polls.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu May 10, 2012 12:28 am

When I was mayor almost 20 years ago I supported a so called "gay rights" ordinance -- it was in actuality an ordinance banning discrimination in the areas of housing, credit, employment, accomodations. I was skewered politically. Then again, a couple years later, I scored big in the city when I ran for Congress, so the political negatives weren't long-lasting. I'm assuming the Chicago Gang knows what they're doing, but how does this not jeopardize him in North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio, and with the Catholics in places like Pennsylvania? In the end it is still gonna come down to the economy. And I'm just not feeling it for the president. Did you see where he was almost defeated by a prison convict in the West Virginia Democratic primary? That Citizens United decision has put the final nail in the coffin for democracy in America. Big, big trouble ahead.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri May 11, 2012 1:11 am

I'm betting he doesn't get hurt too badly in the polls. Gay marriage always seems to poll well. Publicly - and in polls - people will say they approve. It's at the ballot it gets killed, which should worry them most. His bigger problem is that he's still trying to have it both ways, which is the aspect of politics that makes me the most crazy. He says he, personally, thinks gay marriage should be codified (which I have no doubt is true and always has been, "evolution" aside), but he, the president, doesn't feel compelled to do much about it. No legislation, no initiative, not even a signature on an executive order. On the coast he'll wear a rainbow lapel pin; at the steel mill he'll say the good, God-fearing people should decide. The question is when the gay rights advocates finish popping the champagne corks and realize their no closer today to their goal than they were three and a half years ago, despite the big announcement, and they're being played. They'll likely vote for him any way because they have nowhere else to go, but possibly not in the numbers as last time. I prefer a pol who has the stones to say what they believe and live with the consequences (a la Mayor Jimmy H).

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Fri May 11, 2012 3:01 pm

nice to see you again JScott-an original BWE, IIRC.