When President Obama is re-elected!!

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 3:49 pm

DavidG wrote:We're headed towards the falls in a barrel but we're so busy screaming at each other over which side to paddle on we don't see it coming.

Amen.

Mike Christensen · Post by **Mike Christensen** » Mon Jul 02, 2012 11:54 pm

JimHow wrote:Is the Tea Party a myth?

Do any of you know anyone who is a "member" of the Tea Party?

I've seen two guys wearing Gadsden flag shirts. Both were over 70. I wanted to ask them that since they obviously opposed Socialism, whether they'd be willing to forgo Social Security and Medicare. But, I suspected I already knew the answer...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 3:37 am

I'm still a little concerned about Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia. And PA, I guess. (I will be stunned if he loses MI and PA.) I'm assuming a Florida loss, even though Barack's ahead there slightly. The one thing that gives me a glimmer of hope is that he seems to have never been behind in Ohio, in any poll,... ever. If that ever changes, then we're in trouble. If we win Ohio, we should be okay. Brace yourselves for the right wing money blitz category 5 hurricane after Labor Day. It is going to be an awesome sight.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 10:35 am

Shock and Awe! Who knew that putting on an election would be the most successful way to spread around the money of the 1%! Hey, that's it, Jim. Put on lots of elections!

While I'm sure the Repubs will easily outspend the Dems, the Dems will have no little money themselves. They too will saturate the airwaves. I pity those living in the purple states 'cuz you know they're going to get the lion's share of ALL the advertising. On the other hand, I'm really interested to see what the impact of such a huge amount of (negative) advertising will be on the voters. Will they ever catch on? Will they tire of it all and leave their TVs off?

If he looses MI and PA he's done of course; but he won't. And I still think he's got a good chance at FL.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:16 am

Agree with you, Jim, I can't see Romney taking Michigan, and PA would also be hard to imagine. NC is looking like it may go the other way this time, though, and at this point in time so does WI and VA. Also agree with Bacchus, I think FL is still very much in play. Still a long way to go, though. Ohio is an impossible call. Probably will remain so all the way until the fat lady sings. Absent a game changing event, it's going to be right down to the wire.

Last time out Obama had a huge money advantage but he'll be behind this time. I wonder sometimes how much it really matters. I heard a poll yesterday morning that over 40% of the population was unaware of the Supreme Court ruling or that the issue was even being deliberated!! If accurate, I find that equally shocking and depressing (and our previous debate on whether the ACA ruling is a net positive or negative may be moot). I have moments where I feel like the public is sold short and sees through much of the BS, and then I have moments where I feel like the majority are just sleep-walking through life with headphones on. It would be a fascinating political science project to hold the same election every day of one week and follow the outcomes. Every year the pundits analyze every poll and angle, and invariably the weather and its effect on turnout is considered an important variable. I accept that not everyone will have the level of interest in political issues as those on this thread, but honestly, in an election like this, in the times we live in, can our future really depend on whether it rains in Ohio on a given day?! Will Crossroads GPS be seeding clouds on Nov 6?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 11:23 am

Also, regarding advertizing, we're already getting shelled here, as you might imagine.....

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:27 pm

I've always thought that the poor regard people have for politicians is due to more than just their poor performance (though I admit that in the last 10 years they've achieved stunning new lows). In part it's the negative ads trumpeting their deficiencies. The ad guys at Coke and Pepsi don't run spots on how bad the competition tastes - even the famous taste tests asked which one people "liked" better. Car companies don't go negative on the competition for the most part, usually claiming "best in class" for their product, not "worst in class" for the competition. They know that tearing down the competition reflects poorly on the entire industry. Is it any wonder our public is so disengaged and that voter turnout is so low?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:55 pm

Bacchus: I'm assuming you follow http://www.fivethirtyeight.com.

That site is the best of them all for us electoral college geeks.

Jim

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:56 am

Jim, any idea what the track record of 538 is? Looks like a pretty thorough, wonky outfit.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:00 pm

Very highly respected, Scott. He was very accurate in the 2008 elections, when he was independent. The New York Times picked him up since then, doesn't look like they've done too much damage to the site.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:36 pm

His numbers look pretty re-assuring for Obama. He does assume most of the swing states stay blue, though. Funny how it works, really. A few percentage points in key places change a huge win into a huge loss. It really doesn't look like this ACA decision has had much of an impact, other than to solidify bases. Still a long way to go......

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jul 06, 2012 12:47 pm

Yeah, I think it has been a good week for Obama. Mitt on the jet skis, the WSJ scolding, the tax/penalty flip/flop. Bain and the off-shore money is hurting Romney, plus, he just comes across as a total shithead, that may be our biggest salvation of them all in the end. Quinnipiac has the Prez up by 9 points in Ohio. I really can't see a realistic scenario where Obama loses this election if he wins Ohio. HOWEVER, the Boston Globe and other media sources are reporting that Romney has a 3-1 fundraising lead over the president. If I had a choice between being 9 points up in OH on 7/6 or being ahead 3-1 in campaign revenues, I'd take the money. This is going to be so horrific after Labor Day, it is going to be like the worst thing we've ever seen in politics.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:49 pm

Agreed. Team Romney clearly wasn't prepared with a unified message for the Court finding. Any other candidate might have gotten some traction out of it, but Romney's not in a position to say much. It may end up being a net draw in the end, because both campaigns have to try to push a fairly nuanced and tortured narrative: Obama is trying to say it isn't a tax politically, only legally, and Mitt is trying to say that Obama's new tax is far worse than his essentially identical tax as Governor. Neither argument is likely to win hearts and minds. Coupled with the other stuff you mentioned, probably the best week for Obama in quite a while.

I'd be surprised if Obama's not able to squeeze some money when it gets to crunch time, but hard to see him catching up at this point.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 3:19 am

I'm still convinced Obama is going to lose but I must say I'm impressed by this Rove-like campaign he's been running this summer! Bravo! Romney is being "Bained!" A Democrat who is actually fighting back, not sure I've ever seen that in my lifetime, well, Clinton, I guess. So far, Obama is "defining" Romney this summer. Still, Mitt's money will overcome in the fall. It's fun while it's lasting, though. Omg, is this going to be horrific after Labor Day.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:44 am

Don't know what to think about pieces like these. They go against the common wisdom, so I post them for your collective reflections, one a little more reasoned in tone than the other:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... _blog.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder ... race-video

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 10:54 am

Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 47, Romney 40 Obama +7
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama Marquette University Obama 51, Romney 43 Obama +8
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
New Mexico: Romney vs. Obama WeAskAmerica Obama 51, Romney 40 Obama +11
Maine: Romney vs. Obama Critical Insights Obama 49, Romney 35 Obama +14
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Romney 46, Obama 47 Obama +1
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama Project New America/Myers (D) Romney 49, Obama 48 Romney +1

Of these, the NC race appears to be the tightest at the moment. And of all the states listed here notice that Jim lives in the sanest of the bunch!

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 12:00 pm

Bacchus wrote:Don't know what to think about pieces like these. They go against the common wisdom, so I post them for your collective reflections, one a little more reasoned in tone than the other:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... _blog.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder ... race-video

I'm skeptical about most numbers-based claims, and these appear particularly devoid of supporting documentation or explanation of what $s are being counted. Doesn't mean they are wrong...

I think Jim's right that we'll be subjected to the biggest, meanest, dirtiest media blitz in the history of mankind in the coming months. On both sides. Not sure who'll have the $ advantage but that's almost like asking if it would have mattered whether the US or USSR had more nukes in case of all-out war. Everyone will suffer, and the winner may be determined by how well they deploy their resources rather than the size of the arsenal.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 2:18 pm

You could certainly feel it ratchet up this week on both sides. Looks like everyone's ready for bare knuckles. The truth is, as much as we all claim we wish it weren't so, both sides like their guy to be tough and if it didn't work they wouldn't all do it. That said, I'm going to claim again I wish it weren't so!

On a different note, what's the consensus on Condi emerging as this week's flavor in GOPVP? She's on record as being pro-choice and her immigration views are much closer to Obama's, but I think it's going to look like pandering in some quarters, and I wonder about the wisdom of tapping someone so heavily connected to Bush.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 4:07 pm

Still going with Portman, especially if polls are showing Obama has a lead in Ohio.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 5:40 pm

If Romney were smart he'd pick Olympia Snowe as his running mate, something John McCain should have done four years ago.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 6:29 pm

Good thought on multiple levels but two New Englanders? Not that there is ever a perfect running mate. If he asked do you think she would do it? Or is she too burned out on partisan politics to want to participate in what promises to be a filthy campaign.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 6:55 pm

Rick Perry for Veep! We MUST get him out of the governorship here. As VP he can't do any harm as long as Mitt stays healthy.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 7:39 pm

Stefan I think your phone will ring before Perry's! Can't blame a guy for dreaming, though......

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 8:04 pm

True about Olympia, David. She's 65 now and has had enough. McCain should have picked her four years ago. Romney will be making a mistake if he thinks he needs to pick a Sarah Palin type to "energize the base." The conservative vote will turn out for the Republican, no matter what. He doesn't need some rabid right winger like Scott Walker or Sarah Palin. He needs someone who presents as moderate, who will appeal to the center, like a Jeb Bush or some other Olympia type. Rice is tied to Bush but she is very smart, comes across as rational, female, a person of color, and energizes the base. She'd be an interesting choice, would certainly "shake things up." To me she is a menace to humanity but for a lot of people she would be an appealing contrast to tired old Joe Biden. Rubio is striking me these days as not quite ready.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 14, 2012 8:42 pm

I really miss Rick Perry in the election... almost as I miss Herman Cain...

(Disclosure: I watch the Daily Show a lot and these two made for months of priceless material)

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:59 pm

Is the Obama negative campaigning backfiring on him?
Romney seems to be pulling ahead in the polls.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:30 pm

not after yesterday!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:08 am

Are you talking about the Olympics thing?
That's not even a one-day story.

More abysmal economic numbers this week.

Obama is finished.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:57 pm

The Obama strategy thus far has been to try to defend at least the economic strategy and goals if not the results, and to try to make the case that it needs more time. The sledding is getting tougher, though. At this stage of a presidency, fair or not, it no longer sells to talk about the tough hand you were dealt. The only arguments are either your policies don't work, or you are incapable of fixing whatever mess you inherited. Inept or ineffectual is not a good position from which to debate.

We're not quite at "a thousand cuts" yet, but they're starting to add up. First and foremost are the relentlessly abysmal economic numbers, of course, though from a somewhat perverse and backward perspective, the numbers are terrible enough that the Fed may decide it's time to intervene again. The question is whether a third stimulus will even have an effect, or even if it spurs some growth whether there's time to see it in the data before November. On top of this, most devastatingly, fair or not, is the building theme that Obama either doesn't see it or doesn't care. Romney now has a collection of soundbites to cobble together that start to look like an argument: "the private sector is doing fine..." "...you didn't build that..." and "we tried our plan and it worked..." Nothing is more effective in an ad campaign than a candidate's own words and images (the Dukakis tank ride certainly cost him the election). Maybe they need to get him back on the teleprompter.

The Bain thing has lost it's mojo, if it ever had any. Polling data didn't budge, except for Obama's likeability numbers, which fell like a stone. Three months is still a lot of time in an election, but if Team Obama has a rabbit in the hat they'd better start reaching for it.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:34 pm

where are the tax returns and more info on those offshore holdings?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:50 pm

There was a good article on the net this past week, I think it was on the CNN website, talking about all the serious questions that Romney's big IRA raises, how he's probably fudging things, etc. Clearly, Team Romney has calculated the risk of not releasing the returns outweighs the risk of releasing them.

Let's face it, this is going to be an excruciatingly close election, at about 11pm we'll be looking at those John King interactive maps on CNN showing the counties that are still "out" around Akron, and Toledo, and Cincinnati-Dayton, etc., in an effort to determine whether Obama's one percentage point lead will hold up....

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:44 pm

Jay Winton wrote:where are the tax returns and more info on those offshore holdings?

The response will be "where are the Fast and Furious documents and where are the college transcripts?" Or even more to the point: "prove it." Absent some concrete evidence, none of this currently has much traction on either side, and the polls seem to confirm this. Additionally, the chorus of calls for tax return transparency took a U-turn when Nancy, Harry and Debbie all declined, too. When asked to release her own returns, Pelosi went so far as to say that all this tax return business was nonsense, literally the day after demanding it from Romney. This is another loser issue, I think. It all pales in comparison to the economy.

At the risk of trivializing the issues in the Middle East, one other huge remaining variable is the potential for conflicts in Syria and/or Iran. Many are now openly predicting Israel will take some action before November - with potentially grave consequences for the entire world - but it is also undeniable that such a thing may have an impact on presidential politics.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:05 pm

Romney made an ass of himself in London. He is already as reviled as GWB over here.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f404b6b4-d64b ... z2274uNzCi

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 9:55 pm

True, Ian, but the typical American voter doesn't care.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 11:03 pm

Gallup tracking has had it at 46-46 for each of the last four days. It doesn't get much closer than that.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Tue Jul 31, 2012 12:04 am

Heard an analysis of the electorals and Obama still has an edge, but the dynamics should make both sides squirm. There are some states that have moved from "toss up" to "leaning Obama," but just as many from "solid Obama" to "leaning Obama." The Obama team won't like the softening, but that's better than losing the leaners if you're Romney. And both sides are close to 100 away when the "solids" are counted. This thing is really, really tight.

Is Nader running again? I know Johnson is. Even a few percent could be significant this year.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:00 pm

Obama up 47-45 in today's Gallup, still a statistical dead heat but the first time in a week someone has been ahead. I think the more Romney is in the limelight the worse he does. He needs to focus on the economy. I actually saw a positive Obama ad the other day for the first time in a while. Another month or so and we are going to be getting down to the nitty gritty (after the conventions), and then the polls will start to mean something.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:58 pm

the reality is that a very small part of the population will decide the race. Romney did himself no favors in Europe but this election is all about the economy and Obama's not looking good in that department so far.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:18 am

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Pew Research Obama 51, Romney 41 Obama +10

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Aug 03, 2012 1:26 am

Something has happened in the polls in the past 3-4 days,Obama has gotten a jump. Still about a month early to take the polls real seriously, but we are getting there.