When President Obama is re-elected!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Aug 03, 2012 2:44 am

It's going to be Portman for VP, it looks like. It would make the most sense.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:11 am

What is up with Colorado? Five point lead for Romney. A harbinger of things to come?

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:14 am

Just a few selected purple polls:
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Romney 46, Obama 49 Obama +3
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 43 Obama +6
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Florida: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 53, Romney 42 Obama +11
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama EPIC-MRA Obama 48, Romney 42 Obama +6

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:15 am

Different CO poll Jim?

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:20 am

Ya, what's happening to polling in CO. In addition to the two above polls, there's this -- 3 very different results:
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:22 am

Yes,today's NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll has Colorado 50-45 for Romney. Not good.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 4:36 am

Ooh, announcement today! Who's it gonna be... Ryan or the Virginia governor???

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 4:38 am

Wow... Looks like Paul Ryan... Wow!

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:35 am

Who knew? Will the selection of Ryan have any real effect? On the right? On the left?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:49 am

It's a bit of a ballzy move, don't you think?
He will certainly help to crystalize the choice.
Will it win Ohio for the Republicans?
Of course, the Wall Street Journal had a big editorial this week calling for the selection of Ryan.
The left will have a field day with a lot of his proposals.
I don't see how this helps Romney with the Latino vote in Florida, Colorado, etc.
On the other hand, Ryan seems to get high marks from everyone who knows him.
He is considered likeable, which is probably the biggest factor in the voting booth.
He'll be a generational contrast to old Joe.
The Democrats will shred him, they'll use the social security and Medicare scare tactics, etc.
If I were a Republican, I would be excited about this choice.
You know, in the end, I think Romney made a good choice for his ticket.
I just don't know if this wins him Ohio, which is what this is all about.
Maybe it does.
Fox News has got to be salivating right now!

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:36 pm

He's certainly more exciting than Portman. And more polarizing.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:54 pm

Jim, I think you need to change the title of this thread. Obama has just secured his second term.

No disrespect to Ryan. I actually like him quite a bit. As you said, he's an almost impossibly positive, upbeat guy, very likable. (Although Obama reportedly hates him - I think it goes back to the televised Obamacare roundtable. Ryan was easily the most prepared person in the room and really handed it to him.) Ryan is also very, very sharp, especially with budgetary issues. He will eat Joe's lunch. I also give him credit - whether you agree with his proposals or not - as the only one thus far willing to stick his neck out on addressing the massive deficits (other than Obama's task force). That said, he will provide a wide, easy target. If the Dems can't squeeze five points out of this they don't deserve re-election. This should look like a landslide when all's said and done.

It will be fascinating to see how the Romney team works through this. They have two months to convince the public Ryan's view isn't too radical and are now in the tough position of trying to convince the public to take it's medicine. I think the only ones more excited about this choice than the Republicans is the Democrats!

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:57 pm

We'll find out if this is still a race next week. Here's betting we see an Obama bounce.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:44 pm

The country has a clear choice.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:36 pm

Boston Globe ran a piece on Romney's IRA/SEP. Valued at "$20 million to $100 million." As the story points out, it's hard (understatement alert) to achieve that given the contribution limitations. So it has been achieved via outsized returns. This is due to investing most or all of it in Bain Capital projects. Of course the partners are noted for investing their own money alongside their outside investors. I do wonder though if it isn't possible to front-run these investments with the IRA money and thus garner larger returns for that portion of the funds.

I'm no JimHow, but my initial thought is I'm not sure how Ryan helps Romney. Does he garner disaffected Tea Party voters? I should think Romney would already be pretty solid with the conservative base, since they have nowhere else to go and should be pretty galvanized and motivated to oust Obama already. Ryan also does nothing where Romney is weakest - perhaps mortally so: with women.

In contrast though, he gives more fodder for the Dems' hit machine.

As for Colorado, I'll be voting there. I'm maintaining my residency, and Hawaii doesn't need my vote. I'm THE swing vote.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:31 am

I figure the date when we need to start paying attention to the polls is on September 10th, the Monday following the Thursday conclusion of the Democratic convention. Still, I'm freaked by Romney's 2 point lead in today's Gallup. It's probably a VP bounce, of course, but every time I see the Mittster gaining ground somewhere I wonder if this is it, is this the beginning of the big Republican wave.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:33 pm

But Jim, there are 12 pages here going back to last year of you proclaiming Romney as the obvious winner. Look at the title of the thread! Awww, I know you were just trying to lower your expectations in preparation for the Dems shooting themselves in the foot. It is starting to look pretty close now, though. Ryan presents a big, easy target for the Dems, but people vote for President, not VP. Where Ryan might hurt the ticket is in the lost opportunity of picking a favorite son (Rob Portman) from Ohio, which is likely to be a critical swing state. I think Romney miscalculated here, though we may never know what skeletons Portman may have had in the closet.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:37 pm

Awww, I know you were just trying to lower your expectations in preparation for the Dems shooting themselves in the foot. It is starting to look pretty close now, though. Ryan presents a big, easy target for the Dems, but people vote for President, not VP. Where Ryan might hurt the ticket is in the lost opportunity of picking a favorite son (Rob Portman) from Ohio, which is likely to be a critical swing state. I think Romney miscalculated here, though we may never know what skeletons Portman may have had in the closet

Yeah, he may have satisfied the Wall Street Journal/Fox News crowd, but he may have lost Ohio and Florida for Romney. Who knows? As I predicted, this is going to get really, really ugly. Did you see where they're gonna try to Swift Boat Obama over the bin Laden mission? Unbelievable. That head of the Republican National Committee is a ball buster, I hope sweet and innocent Debbie Wasserman can keep up with him. Again, let's face it... This is going to be excruciatingly close.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:34 am

I know some crazy stuff happened in Pennsylvania today, but I still have to believe Obama wins that state comfortably.

I was just doing some moving around on the Electoral Interactive Map.

It is amazing how important Ohio is to this race. Whoever wins Ohio wins the election.

For example, go to one of the many electoral college interactive maps on the internet (type "electoral college interactive map" into Google). Here is one way Obama gets to 271 electoral votes (assuming Ohio goes into his column):

Go to: http://www.270towin.com/

Put the following states in the Blue column, and everything else in Red:

ME, VT, NH, MA, CT, NY, NJ, MD, DC, PA, DE, OH, MI, IL, WI, MN, NM, NV, WA OR CA, HI.

I mean, that's crazy! The map is like 75% red, yet Obama wins with 271 electoral votes!

It's ALL about OHIO!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:36 am

In other words, I'm putting FL, VA, CO, IA, NH into the Romney column-- all states that Obama SHOULD win, frankly-- and Obama STILL wins... if he wins Ohio.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:51 am

Under the above scenario, Obama can even lose Ohio but make it up with CO, IA, and NH... again, three states he SHOULD win....

Pretty hard to see how Obama loses this race.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:54 am

There are actually not-off-the-wall scenarios where it ends up 270-270... which means a Romney victory, because of the Republican control of the House of Representatives.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:00 am

OK, let's close this thread and start a new one, maybe call it

Pretty hard to see how Obama loses this race or

When President Obama has his 2nd inaugural

Then we'll begin ab initio, tabula rasa, and all that, with something more in line with the BD's thinking.

"There are actually not-off-the-wall scenarios where it ends up 270-270... which means a Romney victory, because of the Republican control of the House of Representatives."

Plus they've got the Dems outgunned by a wide margin (and they're constantly reminding everyone they're prepared for such eventuality too).

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:15 am

This looks to be a close election, but it now appears that this is Obama's to lose. It will take a major blunder and/or a major externality (e.g. the Euro collapsing) for Obama to lose, though it will probably end up being close (a la 2004). Someone commented recently that Obama I is the most scandal-free administration since Eisenhower (with the possible exception of George the 1st); that matters in a close election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:56 am

Scott: What impact do you think the Romney/Ryan coal argument will have in Ohio?
And do you think Romney/Ryan have pulled off the miracle (so far) of turning Medicare against Obama? If so... if somehow convincing the public that the Republicans are the protectors of the Democratic Party's finest accomplishment (with social security) of the last century, while also convincing the public that Obama has gutted Medicare... that's a master stroke of epic proportions, no?
And what do you think of Swift Boat 2012 that is about to hit the airwaves?

How is this all playing in southern Ohio?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:07 pm

Jim, I may be wrong, but I think the coal issue really plays to what is already mostly Romney's base. It may have an impact in shoring up turnout, but I don't think it will swing a large number of voters. I get the sense that it may be more of a problem for Brown in the Senate race, but I still don't think it will be the core issue for most voters. Brown is in a dogfight. It's tight enough that every small advantage is an issue, really.

The other issue that's simmering down here a bit is with the polls. Initially, the county announced that voting hours in the city, which is heavily Democrat, would close at 5 while Republican leaning suburbs would remain open 'til 7. The Board, which is Republican controlled, said it was because of cost concerns. The Secretary of State has intervened and ordered uniform hours across all polling sites, so the issue is settled. It's going to be nasty. It's still tight as can be here, and sharply polarized. I expect record turnouts.

Which Swift Boat are you referring to? Looks like a Swift Armada to me. On both sides, to be fair. Every ad that's produced lately seems to fail fact checking, but apparently those concerns are quaint and nostalgic. Everyone has learned that the retractions are never noticed, and there is no penalty for lying.

I now understand the Ryan vetting. I thought, like many, that the Medicare issue was going to be disastrous for Romney, but it appears there was a narrative for neutralization from the outset and the Democrats were completely unprepared for it. There is video from an ABC interview with Tapper where Obama specifically acknowledges the $700B cut in Medicare as an integral part of the ACA, even threatening to veto any legislative attempt to remove it from the plan. Devastating for Obama and I think it will essentially remove this as an issue. Genius. With the Medicare issue removed, Ryan looks like a formidable addition. He is young, appealing, energetic, very bright and knowledgable yet able to cheerily present fiscal issues in a very articulate and plainly understandable way. As usual, I was completely wrong and polling this week makes him look like a smart choice.

Does anyone believe reports this week that Hillary declined an offer to join the team two weeks ago? The source looks pretty feeble, but Joe is looking more like a liability as we hit crunch time. I really think his "put you in chains" remark was the extension of a poorly thought out metaphor, not a true racial commentary, but that's Joe. He has no filter. There was a predictable response from Republicans, as has become the norm on both sides, taking every advantage of any gaffe, but the counter-defense from Toure on MSNBC really escalated it. For a Presidency that was going to end divisiveness and be post-racial, this has been an abject failure. I don't lay the blame at Obama's feet entirely, but whatever the intention was, the result was the opposite. I have serious concerns about what may transpire post-election. All of this racial undertone - and overtone! - has got to stop. Reasonable people can disagree, and everyone should be given the benefit of the doubt about their motivation. I am not pollyannish enough to believe that racism has been conquered on either side (some outrageous comments from the New Black Panther Party this week, too), but for goodness sakes this country elected the man four years ago so most of us are over it. I hope whoever wins does so convincingly.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 18, 2012 12:39 pm

I saw Brown on TV the other night. He looked like he'd aged 20 years, looked defeated. He was ahead by like 50 points at the beginning of the year... before the Koch Brothers sunk their claws into him, no?

I know nothing about tax law. Has anyone explained how Romney has like $100 million (or whatever it is) in his IRA, when we can only contribute $6,000 per year? I'm sure there must be a legal reason, otherwise Obama and the media would be all over it. I'm assuming it must have something to do with the initial valuation of stock in his company or some such trick?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Aug 18, 2012 2:56 pm

Exactly right, Jim. There are limits on contributions to an IRA, not appreciation. He was very savvy in his use of the tax code. Not particularly shocking. You don't get that rich by being a financial dolt. He'd rather not have his wealth and use of the tax code examined, of course, not so much because of illegality as much as it will make him seem so unable to relate to the vast majority of the population. If Romney had done something illegal in his taxes it would've long ago been brought up, and suggesting otherwise without any evidence as Harry has done is very unseemly, in my view. If you've got a case, bring it. Harry and Nancy and Debbie and the rest of them, for that matter, don't want their finances disclosed for the same reasons. I personally think this tax thing is the birther equivalent on the left.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Aug 18, 2012 3:25 pm

Yeah, I don't see that tax issue having any long term impact. Going negative has been a risky strategy for Team Obama because his biggest asset has been his likeability. September 10th... The Monday following the Thursday conclusion of the Democratic Party convention. That's the day I say we are going to have to start to watch the polls, as we head towards debate season. Man oh man, hold onto your seats, this is going to be a God awful ride for two months this fall.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:55 pm

Pretty good rebuttal by Peter Bergen on CNN of the Obama Swift Boat nonsense here, not that it will change the minds of those who want to believe:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/17/opinion/b ... ?hpt=hp_t2

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:24 pm

I think the prez is in verty big trouble. The polls are even and Romney has not even begun to unleash his fury yet, as he will begin to outspend Obama by multiples after the Republican convention next week.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:42 am

Yes, the money will be overwhelming.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:47 am

Throughout human history, has there ever been a greater political gift than the one handed McCaskill by Akin? You can't make this stuff up......

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:54 am

JimHow wrote:I think the prez is in verty big trouble. The polls are even and Romney has not even begun to unleash his fury yet, as he will begin to outspend Obama by multiples after the Republican convention next week.

Getting cynical, I guess, but I don't know if I even believe any of the polling any more. The greatest casualties of modern politics are honesty and objectivity. I think the reason the division feels so deep this time is because it is. With so many feeling there is so much at stake on both sides, I think everyone has an agenda, including journalists and pollsters. Can't count how many times I've read two different news stories on the same issue, each with completely different headlines suggesting completely different outcomes, and how many times on the same day I see two different polls with opposite results. It's going to be close, but I don't know who's ahead. And the money is obscene.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:56 pm

Winston S. Churchill - "I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:51 pm

Jay, Churchill's is even better than the classic "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics".

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:10 pm

I still think Obama has a small, but persistent lead. I buy Nate Silver's careful analysis. Historically Romney should have a good lead right now if he has any hope of unseating an incumbent. He should have a good post-VP-announcement bounce. He doesn't on either account, in fact he's slightly behind. Kerry was slightly ahead at this point in 04, so was Dukakis in 88, and it wasn't enough to hold up against the encumbent party. The bad economy is already factored into the polls, so without worsening economic news, Obama seems to be weathering the recession okay. The economic news is as likely to improve as to head south between now and November (the Dow finally back to pre-2008 recession levels, etc.). The new NYTimes\CBS\Quinnipac poll is pretty decent for Obama.

Republican voter suppression efforts could be decisive though if the election stays this close, a la Florida 2000. Please, don't let that happen again, there could be a much greater civil disobedience this time (Occupy Wall St writ large) if the Supreme Court and Kathrine Harris get to pick another winner.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:43 pm

I agree, Patrick, I see violence erupting on either side if this ends up being as close as 2000.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Aug 23, 2012 7:30 pm

Finally, back to a 46-46 tie in Gallup after a whole week of Romney up by two points, I was really getting depressed there.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:47 am

I'm not a big fan of Rachel Maddow but I gotta say, that girl is energized! You go, girl!