When President Obama is re-elected!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:20 pm

The huffing and puffing was just Joe being Joe.
I was also impressed by Ryan.
I thought they both did great, actually.
They both came to fight, no pussyfooting around.
I would basically call it a draw.
I do think it was more important for the Democrats, though.
Had Ryan run all over Joe the way Romney ran over Obama, I think the Dems would have been in big trouble.
I think the Dems are still in big trouble, but I think Joe's putting up his dukes at least calmed Democrats like myself, who have been ready to jump off a bridge the past week or so.
As a result, I'm going to make no changes in today's Obama JHEPI: 50.

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 12, 2012 4:01 pm

JimHow wrote:The huffing and puffing was just Joe being Joe.
I was also impressed by Ryan.
I thought they both did great, actually.
They both came to fight, no pussyfooting around.
I would basically call it a draw.
I do think it was more important for the Democrats, though.
Had Ryan run all over Joe the way Romney ran over Obama, I think the Dems would have been in big trouble.
I think the Dems are still in big trouble, but I think Joe's putting up his dukes at least calmed Democrats like myself, who have been ready to jump off a bridge the past week or so.
As a result, I'm going to make no changes in today's Obama JHEPI: 50.

I thought it was a draw too. The Democrats REALLY needed at least a draw.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:08 am

I have Obama losing this morning. He is up by only 4 points in Maine, and is losing the second congressional district, which means that Maine's electoral votes will be split. He's down in NH and FL. Romney swing state spending is now even with Obama. Haven't seen any Ohio polls but I have to believe Romney is up there. What an amazing impact that first debate had!

Obama JHEPI: 45.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:06 pm

Melissa Harris-Perry cites a poll out of Ohio today that gives Obama a 6 point lead. She also said that in advanced voting Obama was favored by a margin of 2-1.

And Nate Silver is still giving the election to Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:34 pm

Obama up by two point in Arizona poll. That alone leads me to increase the Obama JHEPI back up to 50. Tomorrow's debate another big moment.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:11 pm

Romney jumps to 4 point lead among likely voters in today's Gallup, 50-46%.

Pennsylvania and Michigan back in play.

Obama JHEPI back down to 45.

He's in big, big trouble. Fighting for his political life in tonight's debate.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:40 pm

Looking at all these poll results with exactly three weeks to go.
You know, this campaign may already be over.
Romney may have scored a knockout in that first debate, and there may be nothing left that Obama can do at this point.

hautbrionlover · Post by **hautbrionlover** » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:20 pm

I think I said long ago that whoever wins Ohio will win the election, and I still think that's the case.
I agree, though, that a couple of weeks ago it looked like Obama couldn't lose the election, but his performance in the first debate was so awful that the whole electoral landscape has changed. Obama was way ahead in states that he could (or will) lose: VA, FL, CO, NH; and he's made a race of it in others in which he was way ahead, including OH, NV, IA and WI.
This election's going down to the wire. What's more, because so many people in Ohio will vote early by absentee ballot, we might not know who won for many days after the election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:02 am

Just had a little earthquake up here!

I'm beginning to wonder about the Ohio rule, HBL. There are scenarios developing where Obama wins Ohio but still loses. He still needs to win IA and WI, which you would think he would win if he won Ohio, but I think things are getting dicey.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:07 am

I must say, though, I'm impressed by Obama's resilience in Ohio.
Even in the lowest point in his campaign, he's still up by 3-5 points there.
At least that's what the polls say, wonder what Ohian JScott thinks?
Will the auto bailout save obama in Ohio?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:14 am

Actually, if Obama wins Ohio and Nevada, he can afford to lose Iowa and New Hampshire.
He has to win Wisconsin, though.
What I'm finding really interesting is that Arizona is now moving into toss up category, and there is even at least one poll that has Obama up by two there. If Obama wins Ohio and Arizona, it's over for Romney.
Keep an eye on Arizona!
I still have Romney winning this thing at this snapshot in time, less than an hour before the second debate.
He has the Big Mo.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:55 am

That highly rated Ipsos poll has Obama widening his lead to 3 points today.
I'm fully expecting Romney to spank him again tonight.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:08 am

Romney comes out solid.

A little dorky at the end.

Here's the prez. Jabs Romney on letting auto industry go bankrupt.
Five points.... Zzzzz.

Good start.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:11 am

Romney not quite as sharp out of the gate like last time.

Romney turns to Obama.

Good response by Obama.

Very strong.

Round two for Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:12 am

Romney pissed. Obama reddens Romney's nose.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:17 am

Obama MUCH better.

I think he's better when he's going after Romney.

Talking about gas.

Romney responds. He looks a little tired tonight.
I'm partisan, but he's not scoring on this gas issue.

Strong rebuttal by Obama.

Round 3: Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:19 am

Romney makes huge mistake, asks Obama a question.
And Obama accommodates!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:20 am

Romney's face us red.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:21 am

Obama draws laugh from crowd.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:22 am

Romney purses lips.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:23 am

I thought they were gonna punch either there for a second.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:26 am

Round 4: Romney's tax plan.

If Obama doesn't mention 47% here I'm gonna scream.

Romney getting stuck in specifics.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:34 am

Obama pulls out the first $250,000 argument that worked 4 years ago.

Obama pounding hard!

Romney responds with trickle down arguments. He should be hammering Obama.

Obama looks cool, Romney looks riled.

Round 4: Obama. Big round for the prez.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:46 am

Round 5: Females.

Obama comes on with string combinations before the bell, steals the round.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:48 am

This format is not best for Romney.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:51 am

Obama knocks down Romney on the Geirge Bush question.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:58 am

Round 7 Obama rattles off defenses of his administration.

Romney should be able to hit him here. And does.

I still think Romney looks more flustered.

He doesn't have the affability of the last debate.

Round 7: Draw.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:05 am

Round 8: Immigration.

Strong answer by Romney is he catching his wind after the first half Obama assault?

Obama has good tempo tonight. He looks good. Healthy, trim. This format seems to have him energized.

Now he's going After Romney on Dream act, self deportation, the AZ law.

Round 8: Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:08 am

Romney tries the same check your pension argument he tried on Gingrich and Obama slugs him in the mouth!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:17 am

Round 9 : Libya.

Obama well prepared for this question.

Romney press release... Political points.

"These are my folks."

Romney rebuts: demonstration or terrorist attack?

"Prez flew to Las Vegas"

Prez: the buck stops with me.
Tensest moment of the night as Obama looks mitt in eyes and says he's offended.

Obama spanking him.

Round 9: Obama.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:26 am

Round 10: Guns.

Boring answer by Obama.

Romney agreeing with the prez. Never do that in a debate.

Now rambling. Fast and furious.

Crowley calls Romney on Mass. Assault weapon ban.

Obama rambling.

Draw.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:32 am

Round 11: China.

Both candidates aggressive.

Draw.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:34 am

Strong, unanimous victory for Obama.

Romney staggered several times. Badly battered at the end.

I didn't give Romney a single round....

Gonna be fascinating what kind of an impact...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:38 am

Obama pulls out 47% in last minute.

Knockout in the 12th round.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:53 am

I enjoyed that running commentary Jim, it was on at 2am in the morning here so too late for us, but good to see Obama fight back

Good article in Rolling Stone about Romney's tax dodges, apols if this has already been aired

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... e-20121012

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:45 am

Jim,
You did a great job.
I thought the Veep debate was much more fun.
Let's see what the polls do now.
Three weeks isn't a lot of time.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:44 am

I thought it was a very strong night for Obama.
The polls show him winning the debate by about 5-10 points.
Maybe not the knockout I called, but an important victory for him.
At this point in the game, it reinforced to his supporters that he's willing to fight.
The polls have been close but the enthusiasm gap has definitely favored the Republicans in the past two weeks.
The Ohio Walmart moms gave him a slight win. Hey, in this race, even if it gains him a single point in the polls, it could mean everything.
I thought Obama was very effective in using his two minutes. He would use the first minute talking positively about what he has done, then at about the minute mark he would say "now Governor Romney says..." and then proceed to put the wood to him.
Most people weren't going to have their minds changed last night.
But I think it may help just a bit in the enthusiasm gap, and with the so-called "undecideds." (Who are these nitwits, and heaven help us that they are deciding this race!)
I thought this writer for the New Yorker saw it just about the way I did:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/j ... ebate.html

There were a number of good moments for Obama, but for me personally it was when Romney tried to pull the "you have Chinese investments in your 401k" argument that totally killed Gingrich in the Florida primary debate, and Obama's response to the effect "I don't check my 401k, your 401k is a lot bigger than mine" drew laughter from the crowd.

I personally was fascinated by the debate format. the stalking each other on stage. The turning to each other just two feet away. The alpha male routine, circling each other while the other was talking. There were two or three moments when I thought they were going to grab each other by the neck, a la ARod-Varitek. The Libya moment was very compelling theater.

Obama still has a long way to go, I still think he's in big trouble. But I'll be surprised if this doesn't give him a boost of at least a point or two in the polls.

Obama JHEPI: 50.

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:18 pm

I noticed in every shot of Obama when Romeny was speaking, Obama had his chin up and looking very intent.
Looked like it had been rehearsed a lot.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:13 pm

and of course, it may be days after the election before we know who won given the early and absentee voting. Next debate is foreign policy where Obama should dominate but if he doesn't....

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:29 pm

Sure, Obama had a victory this time, but Romney's strategy of getting more votes from women might offset that.