When President Obama is re-elected!!

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:14 am

Boy, I don't know, Jim. I'm still skeptical. Close as it was, and as good as some are with the bolt action, I still struggle watching the Zapruder film explaining that last shot, which absolutely seems to be coming from a different direction, front instead of side or back. Second the reco for a visit to the library, though. One of the seminal historical moments in human history.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:20 am

I agree that Romney suddenly has the look of a front runner. Thought that with the last debate, frankly. Playing with the lead. Obama clearly looks to be the challenger at this point. Both camps must have the same internals, and despite any outward bluster, both are projecting the same thing: Romney's in front. Still think it's well within the margin of error.

My kids are away at college and both have received - and submitted - their absentee ballots. Two more votes have been cast in Ohio....

All I can tell you at this moment, Jim, about Hamilton County, Ohio, is that this race could not be closer. Don't care what the polls say, this one's going down to the wire....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:31 am

God, that terrifies me, Scott. Will Ohio 2012 be the new Florida 2000? Heaven help us if it is. Like you said, we are not living in 2000. The world is a very different place than it was 12 years ago. A much worse place. A contested election in 2012 will be devastating to this country.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:37 am

By the way, chances are it will NOT be a close election, electorally. This race will most likely break for one candidate over the other in the final week, with either Obama or Romney capturing over 300 electoral votes. It's that 5% chance where everything breaks equally, a la Gore-Bush, that scares the daylights out of me.

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:20 am

Tom In DC wrote:Be careful what you wish for, tmas. The pols now spend mightily trying to move 2-3% of the voters in the swing states. If they swing the same 2-3% in CA, NY and IL in a popular vote, we'd have a one party system in no time.

Tom, your logic escapes me. Works both ways. Hey, if we're going to flush the country and American ideals down the drain it might as well be what the majority want.

Spreads the blame around more evenly too, just imagine how awful those poor Ohioans are going to feel if they wake up one morning in 2015 and the whole country is staring back at them wondering what the hell they were thinking!

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:34 am

JimHow wrote:I'm going to rely heavily from this point on what JScott tells me is happening in Ohio.
Just like I rely on BWE for almost 100% of my wine advice.

We have the quintessential Ohioan, in the quintessential American county in Cincinnati.

Scott! You are like literally at ground zero, I'm like not even being funny! I am being totally serious when I say that, like, your street is going to decide this election!

Tell me! Who is winning this race!
Obama has done well with the early vote.
He has obviously benefitted from the auto industry bailout.
It sounds like the Dems have a better ground game in Ohio.
The polls seem to have Obama ahead by 2-5 points in OH.
Which is pretty amazing to me
Still, can he stave off the Romney onslaught?
I have no idea.

JScott Cardone is going to be like 75% of my decision when I enter my final JHEPI score before the election!

Jim I love ya but you are sounding a little too much like Nancy Grace. I can see her saying this......................

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:41 am

JimHow wrote:By the way, chances are it will NOT be a close election, electorally. This race will most likely break for one candidate over the other in the final week, with either Obama or Romney capturing over 300 electoral votes. It's that 5% chance where everything breaks equally, a la Gore-Bush, that scares the daylights out of me.

NC is still in play I think.
There are a lot of RV's and buses getting the early vote out.
The folks fom the rural areas don't necessaily participate in polls or get out and vote.
It could be a wild cad.
I believe America can't be predicated by demographic algorithms.
Or maybe I just wish.............

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:41 am

It is indeed amazing to see both Barack and Michelle do the chameleon thing depending on the audience. Aw, shucks...

If Oswald was totally on his own, what's Ruby's motivation, Jim? Just a pissed off citizen????

Then again, if we need a predecessor for "suicide bombers", maybe Oswald and Ruby are our "made in the USA" boys?

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:46 am

Tom In DC wrote:It is indeed amazing to see both Barack and Michelle do the chameleon thing depending on the audience. Aw, shucks...

If Oswald was totally on his own, what's Ruby's motivation, Jim? Just a pissed off citizen????

Then again, if we need a predecessor for "suicide bombers", maybe Oswald and Ruby are our "made in the USA" boys?

Yep Ruby is the joker in the deck.
It sure lends credence to the mob being pissed at the Attorney General bearing down on them.
And I'll never forget seeing Ruby just strolling up and capping Oswald.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:56 am

OK, maybe I left too much up to the reader, tmas.

The popular vote has been pretty close in the last few elections, right? And it has come down to the small majorities in the swing states to be bought or sold by the billions of dollars sent their way.

If we replace the electoral college with a popular vote, the same amount of money that is focused on influencing maybe 10,000 swing voters in Ohio will instead be focused on 1,000,000 swing voters in California, 400,000 swing voters in New York, etc. The current Red%/Blue% in these most populous states is held in check (that whole checks and balances thing, eh?) by the electoral college. Should we go to a popular vote model, a 2% swing in California will obliterate all of the margins in the rest of the states.

Soon thereafter, we have a "ruling party" and all the rest of the contenders, er,uh, pretenders. The PRI in Mexico might be something to use for reference material.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:57 am

Um, yes. He was one very pissed off little man.
I'm not a big conspiracy guy.
I don't think the Warren Commission was in on it.
I've looked at the Mary Moorman photo a hundred times.
I just don't see the "badge man."
I've been doing a lot of research on it.
Basically every eye witness said they saw/heard three shots from the 6th floor within seconds after the assassination.
And I've always said, boy, Oswald had a very, very bad day.
I mean, not only was he wrongfully accused of shooting the President, he was wrongfully accused of killing a cop. All in the space of a half hour. I mean, that's one bad afternoon. The chances of any of us being wrongfully accused of killing the president is like, what, one in a gazillion? Not only is he accused of killing the president of the United States, but he then he is wrongfully accused of killing a cop? The chances of that are, what, like one in a gazillion gazillion???

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:02 am

All of the talk about the trends in the early vote (and how exactly does anyone have a clue about the supposedly secret early ballots???!!!) seems like a red herring to me - if you were undecided, why on earth would you vote early????

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:05 am

Jim, Jim, Jim - no one **here** is questioning that Oswald took the shots.

If he was playing alone, how do you explain why Ruby took him out a couple of days later?

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:06 am

By the way, this thread is still good fun 26 pages later! Well done, BD, well done.

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:08 am

Tom In DC wrote:OK, maybe I left too much up to the reader, tmas.

The popular vote has been pretty close in the last few elections, right? And it has come down to the small majorities in the swing states to be bought or sold by the billions of dollars sent their way.

If we replace the electoral college with a popular vote, the same amount of money that is focused on influencing maybe 10,000 swing voters in Ohio will instead be focused on 1,000,000 swing voters in California, 400,000 swing voters in New York, etc. The current Red%/Blue% in these most populous states is held in check (that whole checks and balances thing, eh?) by the electoral college. Should we go to a popular vote model, a 2% swing in California will obliterate all of the margins in the rest of the states.

Soon thereafter, we have a "ruling party" and all the rest of the contenders, er,uh, pretenders. The PRI in Mexico might be something to use for reference material.

I'll try to bring it full circle and back to wine.
The framers of the Constitution spent a lot of time thinking how power influenced, how it was trransfered and how to balance it.
Many looked to France for inspiration.

In vino veritas !

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:10 am

Oh was there someone else involved?
I still don't believe it, bit I agree it's more possible than the idea that there was more than one gunman.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:12 am

In vino veritas, indeed, RDD! And I'm on the lookout for good deals on 2009 Giscours based on our Fearless Leader's recent notes.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:14 am

JimHow wrote:Oh was there someone else involved?
I still don't believe it, bit I agree it's more possible than the idea that there was more than one gunman.

Spoken like a lawyer, or maybe a politician...oh, wait --- you're BOTH!!!

Can you respond to the question about Ruby's motivation?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:14 am

We'll uncork a bottle or two of 2009 Giscours in my room in Dallas!

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:16 am

JimHow wrote:Oh was there someone else involved?
I still don't believe it, bit I agree it's more possible than the idea that there was more than one gunman.

If anything more than just Oswald, it was just someone playing Oswald as a chump.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:17 am

You may remember 4 years ago, like this year, BWE was the only site on the internet where we could have a civil debate on the presidential race!

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:25 am

JimHow wrote:You may remember 4 years ago, like this year, BWE was the only site on the internet where we could have a civil debate on the presidential race!

Well this is just politics. It is not like arguing whether the 1989 or 1990 La Conseillante is better.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:29 am

True! Left Bank versus Right Bank.... Now you're getting serious!

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:37 am

'Zactly!!!

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:36 pm

A BWE field trip to the Texas School Book Depository? Are you going to have a themed picnic on the Grassy Knoll too? Maybe sleepers of the 1963 vintage?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:54 pm

Going into the final week. Obama behind nationally but up by about 2 in OH, WI, IA, NV, and NH, tied in CO and VA.
On the one hand it feels like it is slipping away from him, but on the other hand he still seems to be holding on ever so tenuously in Ohio and other swing states that would ensure him a victory.

JHEPI: 50.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:55 pm

I like your idea, Hound, let's have a Bordeaux picnic where Zapruder stood.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:42 pm

Actually, depending on your point of view, you should drink Left Bank wines on the Grassy Knoll and Right Bank wines from the Mary Moorman side of the plaza.

Badge Man I only hazily recall if at all but that would make a great name for a band, if it isn't already.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:42 pm

Oooooh I love it!!!
We've been looking for a name for my band!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:13 pm

National polls all showing Romney with about a three point lead.
Today's CNN poll has Obama up in Ohio, 50-46%.
Other polls have Obama winning Nevada by about 3 points.

If the election were held today, Romney would win the national popular vote and Obama would win the Electoral College.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:52 am

The Mary Moorman polaroid.
Is this not one of the most important pictures ever taken?
There is so much going on in this picture.
The president has been hit once, in the upper back/neck.
It's not the fatal shot, that is about to happen in less than a second.
Abraham Zapruder is to the left.
The grassy knoll.
Jackie.
The presidential limousine.
The back of John Connolly's head.
The police escort.
The splendid midday sun of Dallas.
The sinister, blurry darkness of the brush atop the grassy knoll, where the "Badge Man" and so many other conspiracies are supposedly located.
The instant that everything changed.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:15 am

Is the battle shifting to Wisconsin? Keep an eye on the Badger State in the last week.
Romney may be shifting strategy from a losing proposition in Ohio to a state where the Republicans have scored some successes in the past couple of years. Still, Obama seems reasonably firm there, up by about 4.
Maybe it's NOT all about Ohio?
Obama just seems to be flat out winning Ohio, gutting it out. Absolutely fascinating. Like an old 4 yards and a pile of dust running game.
With 11 days to go, it seems quite unlikely that Romney can win the Electoral College. Nevada, of all states, may end up being Obama's western state firewall. New Hampshire as well is going to play a role in all of this before all is said and done.

This was a rugged little week for Romney and the Republicans. Obama gained two points in today's ABC national poll. The Republicans can't seem to get past this whole rape issue. Are the crazy radicals who have stolen control of the GOP, in the very end, going to bring heir party down?

Those financial guys in London have Obama way ahead. The Obama campaign seems to have an overwhelming ground game in not only Ohio but like every swing state, including Virginia and Florida.

We are at the cusp of the period where things tend to break towards one candidate over the other.

I think Obama is going to win.

Obama JHEPI: 60.

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:45 pm

Susan has been saying all week, that woman are being underestimated in the vote and they are pissed about a bunch of old men telling them how rape should be.............

I got to take my daughter out to lunch yesterday and we voted together at the university.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:13 pm

I hope Susan's right. Heard some stat that white middle-class and richer women were solidly in Romney's camp. I hope Susan is not underestimating the religious right and the Taliban wing of the Republican Party. They can piss people off with their outrageous statements, but will they scare them enough to motivate them to get out and vote?

I've lost faith in the polls as well as the pols. The only poll that counts, of course, is the one on November 6.

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:06 pm

You just can't make this stuff up. We've all seen the Obama ad wherein the creator of TV trash, a 26 year old woman who looks like she's about 14, rhapsodizes about how voting for Obama is akin to a female's first sexual experience. She starts off "Your first time shouldn’t be with just anybody. You want to do it with a great guy. It should be with a guy with beautiful … somebody who really cares about and understands women" and goes on from there in a similar vein.

What a piece of degrading sexist garbage! If this were a Non Democrat putting this out, the Major Media would be POSITIVELY APOPLECTIC about how this demeans women and treats them as just stupid sex objects. It is, however, Obama and so it must be OK; or maybe Chris Matthews and all the other rabid ideologues who masquerade as journalists are squirreled away laboring over their expression of outrage...yeah, some day.

I think Romney will prevail largely on the strength of more support from women than many suspect. I have faith in the women of America to know when they're being pandered to and demeaned, and I believe a majority of them will in the end vote for the greater good of themselves and the country.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:08 pm

The Obama campaign didn't put that ad out.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:30 pm

""We've all seen the Obama ad..." I don't watch ads, but maybe I should. Was this one put out by a Republican PAC?

A Dem PAC should put out an ad featuring a neo-Nazi type who says that we are in danger of losing control to uppity lower class people if Obama is reelected.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:49 pm

Actually, Jim, that ad did come from the Obama campaign. It features Lisa Dunham from HBO Girls fame.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:58 pm

I thought she did that on her own.
It says Obama approves the video at the end?
Ballzy! Obama is trying to get the base out.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:37 am

I haven't seen that one. In fact I'm trying to tune the ads out. I'm not voting for the ad, I'm voting for the candidate. So ads aside, who do you think is more supportive of women's issues? Not that that's the deciding item for all or perhaps even a majority of women. But this is an area where there is a clear difference between the two candidates.