When President Obama is re-elected!!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:47 pm

I hope you and all the good people of NY, NJ, and elsewhere get relief soon, tmas, that looks like a horrible situation.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:19 am

JimHow wrote:I hope you and all the good people of NY, NJ, and elsewhere get relief soon, tmas, that looks like a horrible situation.

Same. Awful. Good karma and prayers your way.

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:37 am

I was personally very fortunate, lost my power and heat for 3 days. Those suffering much greater travail I am sure appreciate the good wishes of folks like you guys. Thanks.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:51 am

Well, guys, if we can't trust any of the normal polling agencies due to suspected bias, there is at least one group that can't afford to allow any political bias to get in their way of their assessments - that's right, the bookies! And at least one has spoken in the loudest way a bookie can:
http://www.inquisitr.com/388681/bookie- ... -election/

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:55 am

Re betting:
International odds makers are giving the upper hand to Obama. Most UK bookmakers this week, aside from a few outliers, give Obama 1 to 4 odds (if you bet $1 and win, you get $1.25 back), while Romney is getting 11 to 4 odds (for every $4 you bet, you get $11 back).

I trust the bookmakers and bettors more than the pollsters, especially since I do not know if the pollsters hire good statisticians.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:04 am

I know you have all been waiting patiently for my prediction. I greatly appreciate your patience. So.........................drum roll..................

We will all wake up and things will be the same. Obama is the President, The GOP still has about the same number of seats in the House and The Senate is still controlled by the Democrats. We will still have the same issues that both parties have avoided dealing with and the sun will still rise in the morning and set in the evening. Good or bad, it's still the same.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:11 am

ABC poll has Obama shooting up to 50-47%, like Pew.
I'm seeing an Obama surge in the end.
I'm going to add Florida and Colorado into the Obama column.

That results in an Obama electoral college landslide.
A lot of nitwits in the press are going to have egg on their face come Tuesday night.

Needed to win: 270

Barack Obama: 332
Mitt Romney: 206

Obama JHEPI: 99

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:18 am

Wow, Ohio:
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. Obama 50, Romney 49 Obama +1
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 49 Tie
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 48 Obama +1

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:19 am

NH making a move:
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 51, Romney 48 Obama +3
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Romney 48 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama ARG Obama 49, Romney 49 Tie
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama New England College Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:24 am

I knew Karl Rove was bullshitting me tonight when he had NH in the Romney column.

Chasse-Spleen · Post by **Chasse-Spleen** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:43 am

I hope you are right, Jim.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:07 am

I will say this, win or lose I'm not going to miss that phony MLK tone in Obama's voice. I notice he reverts to that voice whenever he's tired.

Silver has Obama's chances at 91% tonight. Means absolutely nothing, of course.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:18 am

Colorado: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 52, Romney 46 Obama +6
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 51, Romney 47 Obama +4

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:30 am

Ha Silver just moved Florida into Obama's column.

And yet Dick Morris says Romney landslide.

Thankfully, mercifully, the talking now ends!

Good night to all BWE voters, Republican or Democrat.

Vote tomorrow if you haven't already. Vote early, vote often!

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:14 am

There's an all-night vigil planned by the American community here (the huge majority vote Democratic), but I'm not going.
I did four years ago. I guess I believed the "hope and change" message then.

I predict that Obama will scrape by.
And be handcuffed by a recalcitrant legislative branch for the next 4 years.
And that America will not unite to push forward and meet its "rendez-vous with history".

Feeling pessimistic this morning,
Alex R.

RDD · Post by **RDD** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:29 am

Jay Winton wrote:I know you have all been waiting patiently for my prediction. I greatly appreciate your patience. So.........................drum roll..................

We will all wake up and things will be the same. Obama is the President, The GOP still has about the same number of seats in the House and The Senate is still controlled by the Democrats. We will still have the same issues that both parties have avoided dealing with and the sun will still rise in the morning and set in the evening. Good or bad, it's still the same.

I have had the same thoughts. Regardless of who becomes POTUS, Congress will remain basically the same.
And Congress with still have the dismal approval rating they currently have, the lowest in history.

Winona Chief · Post by **Winona Chief** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:21 pm

I also agree with Jay.

Chris Bublitz

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:42 pm

I disagree with Jay a little bit.
I think if Obama wins by a healthy margin the radical right in the Republican Party is going to have to do some reassessing.
They're going to have to either moderate on some of their positions like women's rights, war, immigration, health care and entitlements, or they are going to die.
The Republican Party is a very sick party. The patient is more diseased than it knows.
It is comprised largely of white older people.
The basic demographics of the country are headed in the opposite direction: younger, more diverse, more left of the spectrum.
If the Republican Party does not adapt, it will lose more states. in recent years it has suffered setbacks in places like Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, and Colorado. If it keeps on its current course, it will lose Texas, Georgia, and Arizona as well.
So, if Obama wins, the big story will be the fight within the Republican Party. Will the Paul Ryan right come to power? Or something more moderate? That will be the story of the next four years. Especially as the Latino vote continues to swell, the GOP will be making a HUGE mistake in 2016 if it continues to move far right.
Sure, it will have the occasional legislative election victories in off years, and even executive branch victories now and then.
But the general stock chart of the GOP is is headed steadily down.
And what that bodes in response to Jay's point is that, necessarily, the John Boehner's of the world -- the "rational" ones in the Party -- are going to have to move toward the president, starting with the sequestration issue.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:48 pm

I think the problems of this country are not that complicated, they obviously just require political will. That's the hard part.

There are two things that need to happen:

1. Reduce the role of money in politics.
2. Reduce the national debt.

If we accomplished those two things, we would loosen our self-imposed stranglehold, more oxygen would come to the brain, and we would have more power to take on the other big issues like entitlements, health care, military, etc., etc.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:34 pm

Jim,

You speak of reducing the role of money in politics, but the Supreme Court ruling nixed that one forever...
Furthermore, I was just reading that some states (how many?), give lobbyists the possibility of remaining completely anonymous.
I also read that some huge corporations support *both* candidates...

The French take (new socialist government since May) is to start off by increasing taxes - big surprise there, right? - and then reducing them after two years to stimulate the economy once the period of pain is over. And, coincidentally, not long before the next elections

.
Of course, all this is predicated on *growth*.
Without growth, you cannot dig yourself out of a hole.
Growth comes from competitiveness and innovation.
Education has a major role to play. Especially in the sciences.
Reducing corporate taxes is no miracle. That is a pipe dream.

Best regards,
Alex R.

Alex R.

manton · Post by **manton** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:43 pm

jesus I really don't belong here.

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:26 pm

Manton,

Political threads are pretty rare on BWE.
This one has gone forward with rare maturity, cool tempers, and no personal sniping.
I think that's pretty good!

The US is pretty evenly divided and so opposing opinions are hardly surprising to find here.

Statistically, half the people on this forum will be pissed off tomorrow morning.
As Jim says, life will go on. So many things are out of our hands anyway...

All the best,
Alex R.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:27 pm

@manton:

>>
1. Reduce the role of money in politics.
2. Reduce the national debt.
>>

These are hardly partisan issues.

As for the change in demographics affecting voting, that is of great concern to knowledgeable Republicans in Texas, where I live. Why do you think that Perry is out of line with his party on the illegal alien "issue" when he is on the far right on every other issue? See

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/?p=11972

for a description/analysis.

manton · Post by **manton** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:32 pm

I don't want to talk about this any more, back to wine.

But I will say that an Obama FL victory is very unlikely, that sounds like cocooning to me.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:29 pm

This guy must be reading BWE, he has the exact same 332-206 Obama victory I projected last night:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb ... 79773.html

It's all good, manton, the sun will rise tomorrow regardless of who wins!

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:36 pm

There is a good chance that the winner will not be known tomorrow.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:42 pm

Barack Obama will be declared the winner by all networks at 11:01 pm eastern time when the west coast polls close.

robertgoulet · Post by **robertgoulet** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:59 pm

I'm predicting a Romney win...because I'm crazy like that...like a fox

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:06 pm

robertgoulet · Post by **robertgoulet** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:42 pm

Can't see fla. going dem...three times as many Romney signs than when McCain was running and I see a lot more romster enthusiasm. plus dem early voting down considerably...we'll see...still crazy like a fox

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:50 pm

manton wrote:jesus I really don't belong here.

+1

I think Romney pulls it out, just feels a lot like 1980. When it is really critical I think the perceptive American voter recognizes what's at stake and votes for the good of the country.

Houndsong · Post by **Houndsong** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:00 pm

Raise your hand if you think in 30 years Congress votes to change the name of Washington Dulles Airport to Washington Romney Airport.

robertgoulet · Post by **robertgoulet** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:17 pm

Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

Romney up 92K in OH early voting? Update: Gannett pulls link; Update: EV up 14% in 2008 McCain counties, down in Obama counties; Update:....crazy..fox...me

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:26 pm

tmas wrote:
manton wrote:jesus I really don't belong here.
+1

I think Romney pulls it out, just feels a lot like 1980. When it is really critical I think the perceptive American voter recognizes what's at stake and votes for the good of the country.

Having said what I did above, however, I must note that in 1980 the mainstream media had far more integrity than it does today. Respect for the concept of impartiality, or a least some degree of fairness and honesty, was still a meaningful factor. I doubt, for instance, that you'd have had CBS sitting on the Obama interview footage, which came to light a day or two ago, showing that Obama clearly and definitively declined to call Benghazi a terrorist attack weeks before the 2nd debate, which soundly debunked the Candy Crowley (what a shameless Obama apologist! ) incident.

I doubt as well that the mainstream media would have been complicit in keeping the Benghazi stuff under control until after the election, or have been a major player in advancing the narrative that Obama was so take charge regarding Hurricane Sandy, when in fact he dropped by for a quick photo op and left as soon as he could to campaign. Where were, and are, the sobbing mainstream "journalists" hovering above the devastation caused by Sandy excoriating Obama for the inadequate preparedness and slow response?...probably listening to a performance by that great political mind of our time, Bruce Springstein.

Should Romney loose, Obama will once again have the mainstream media to thank.

tmas · Post by **tmas** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:30 pm

robertgoulet wrote:Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.

Romney up 92K in OH early voting? Update: Gannett pulls link; Update: EV up 14% in 2008 McCain counties, down in Obama counties; Update:....crazy..fox...me

1980 redux

robertgoulet · Post by **robertgoulet** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:35 pm

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dT3Hrpp5jMY/U ... ti.com.png

Ohio..Early voting leak, folks if this is true we may have ourselves a new President

AlexR · Post by **AlexR** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:16 pm

It is simply untrue that Obama did not declare the assault on the US consulate a terrorist attack. He did so the next day.
It also seems to be an urban myth on the right that he is somehow responsible for what happened.
Obama later referred to the incident as "a bump in the road", which was a very stupid, unfeeling, and undiplomatic thing to say.
But he cannot be faulted for the lack of preparation in Behghazi or any imagined refusal to acknowledge the deaths as the result of a terrorist attack.
It should be noted that Ambassador Stevens' family asked for this not be turned into a political football.

As for hurricane Sandy, much of this was obviously just for show. As was the photo of Romney taken somewhere passing food along to distribute to people washed out of their homes.
Image. It's all about image.

Alex R.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:53 pm

Latest JimHow prediction: Obama will get a greater percentage of white men in Ohio than he did 4 years ago against McCain. Obama will win Ohio by 6 percentage points.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:20 pm

Ah well, I'm just about done here at the office.
Time to go vote!
Then I'm gonna check in on the old man.
Then about 7pm I'm gonna hunker down with my computer and my TV and watch the results come in!
Sounds like VERY heavy turnouts everywhere.
Should be a fascinating night!

manton · Post by **manton** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:29 pm

JimHow wrote:Latest JimHow prediction: Obama will get a greater percentage of white men in Ohio than he did 4 years ago against McCain. Obama will win Ohio by 6 percentage points.

Is this before or after the aliens land in Columbus?