When President Obama is re-elected!!

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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Oh how I hope you are right, Hound. Oh how I hope....
So you believe that 13,000 is a sign of a healthy economy, eh?
I guess for some it might be.
To me, real wages, employment levels, cost of energy, etc, are bigger indicators of how the economy is doing for most people. Most people I deal with have no savings, no retirement, no stocks, high debt, they live day to day, etc. in other words, nothing having to do with the stock market.
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Houndsong
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Jim, your clients probably don't vote. While I sympathize with their personal travails, including their propensity to commit heinous knife attacks, I wouldn't lay too much emphasis on them as a voting bloc - which again I hasten to add does not mean I lack concern for them as citizens. And by the way, if they do indicate an intention to vote for Romney I suggest you try to introduce this as evidence of insanity, given their circumstances.

In contrast, the people who do have something to do with the stock market pretty much all vote. It's actually a pretty large cohort. Most of them are non-ideological or have tepid party allegiance at best. You know as well as I this 60 percent of the electorate or thereabouts decides elections and if there's a fair wind blowing they will vote in that direction. So 13,000 and especially the unemployment rate which I'm sure you've noticed has trended down will determine this election as they determine most elections. And critically it will be the perception of whether things are getting better or worse that will weigh come this fall. Do you remember W's last 5 months in office? Do you think people remember that? Do you remember what a (not) great time that was if your name wasn't John Paulson & Co.? When people sit down in October and think about that, conclusions will be drawn, if not sooner. To paraphrase, "it's the economy, [sir]".

The caveats here are an exogenous geopolitical event, as for some reason people feel Republicans are better on defense of the country - again notwithstanding that the single most deadly attack on US soil in decades occurred witin 9 months of W's ascension. This is not intended to assign blame for the event or even for the financial meltdown. I am only pointing out the indisputable temporal connections.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by DavidG »

Houndsong wrote:And critically it will be the perception of whether things are getting better or worse that will weigh come this fall.
Bingo! I'd also heard some political guru opine that there is a particular window of time when people are prone to forming their opinions. I can't recall when he claimed it is, but his contention is that it is during that window that perception of the economy will be most important.

On another note: I've been trying to refrain from making snarky comments about the guy Jim's defending against a charge of attempted murder, as it's such a sad and horrific story, but I can no longer resist: the guy stabbed her 27 times, and is being tried for attempted murder? Not the sharpest knife in the drawer?
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Most poor and middle class people are not criminals and they do indeed vote, they were my base!
Attempted murder is one of the most difficult crimes for the state to prove because the victim was not murdered, despite the conduct of the defendant. Most attempted murder charges are pled down to aggravated assault or a similar crime.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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That's interesting Jim I thought intent to kill was inferable from use of a deadly weapon - but perhaps that relates merely to premeditation or malice. Also you'd know better but it's my belief most plea agreements stem not as much from indecision or lack of proof as from expedience.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Most crimes that I deal with that involve use of a deadly weapon are charged as aggravated assault, depennding on the injury. This case will not likely be pled down.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Super Tuesday behind him, the cyborg continues his relentless march forward....
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Romney's finished. The pit bull just backed Gingrich, and also indicated she'd walk all over his back with her spike heels if pushed into the race.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

I guarantee a Mitt Romney victory in November. The man is a phenom.

Speaking of the pit bull, I was watching Fox for a while last night and she came on the screen. She's looking pretty harsh these days, pretty pit-bully....

Speaking of Fox, love him or hate him, is there a better election night analyst that Karl Rove? I say not. He was the first to point out that Romney was going to win Ohio, even when Santorum was up by 3 percentage points late in the evening, based on the fact that the votes that were still out were largely from pro-Romney counties. The ditzy Rachel Maddow had no clue what was actually happening.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Jim, you're just baiting! Romney will win the Repub nomination -- I don't think anyone ever really doubted that -- but will loose in November. You said Romney just wins. Maybe so, but how many elections has Obama lost? Just for fun, a few recent if useless poll results.

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 50, Romney 38 Obama +12
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 52, Romney 35 Obama +17
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 53, Romney 39 Obama +14
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Obama had a hell of a time against Hillary in the 2008 primary season, Bacchus. In fact, I think he lost most of the primaries to her, if I'm not mistaken. If he wasn't so organized in the a caucus states, he would have been eliminated early in the process. I believe Romney is doing much better in his campaign than Obama was doing against Hillary.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

I don't remember who won the most primaries in the 08 Demo race either, Jim, but I do recall that it was a hell of a fight. Both Hillary and Obama had strong organizations. So it doesn't surprise that the fight was tough and pretty much went to the wire. In this year's Repub race, on the contrary, only Romney has a truly strong organization. So he should be cleaning up. In fact, I think he should be doing better than he is. Politically I may be the polar opposite of Santorum (being Canadian and all), but even I will give him credit for doing as well as he's done with a shoe string organization and a shoe string budget (at least in comparison to Romney).

Sipping on a glass of the 04 Gruaud Larose at the moment. Really very nice claret. Medium body, red fruit, spice, some smokey gravel on both the nose and palate. You would never describe this as rich or spoofy. More focussed and precise. If it's typicity and terroir you want, that's what you'll get with this. If it's a big lush fruit bomb you want, better look elsewhere.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Did you see that ABC poll this week, Bacchus, that has Romney up by two points on Obama?

It's going to be another good night tonight for the next Ronald Reagan of our time.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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I did, Jim, but that poll is so yesterday. On the minute we have these:

General Election: Romney vs. Obama IBD/CSM/TIPP Obama 46, Romney 41 Obama +5

Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7

General Election: Romney vs. Obama CBS News/NY Times Obama 47, Romney 44 Obama +3

Nice to see that poll out of Pennsylvania, wouldn't you say.

Of course gas prices are affecting poll results. Fortunately they won't stay up forever, and it's just a matter of time before they come down again. Certainly they'll come down after the summer driving season, just in time for the election. :mrgreen:
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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The PA results mean nothing to me because if Obama can't win PA he may as well hang it up now.
And that CBS general election lead of 3 points hardly gives me comfort. If he is only 3 points up now, he is going to lose.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Rick Santorum,
he's our man;
if he can't do it,
nobody can!
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Go Rick go!
Still can't see Santorum winning In NY, NJ, IL, CA, etc.
I can see him winning in PA, TX, and other southern states.
This Republican primary is delicious.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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As delicious as an '03 PC? :o
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Jim, I've been reading the pundits, always dangerous I know. But I couldn't help but think of you when I came across this remarkable statement: "By coming in third to Santorum and Gingrich in Mississippi and Alabama, Romney has gone from inevitable to unelectable," says Paul Begala.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Bacchus: Don't put anything past a country that not once but twice elected George W. Bush.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JCNorthway »

The psychological momentum is in Santorum's court. But the organization and math seem to point to an inevitable Romney nomination. That said, a Gingrich/Santorum pact could make things interesting all the way up to the convention. It's been really interesting to follow the race up to this point. Basically it seems to be Romney's organization and money vs. the fact that he doesn't really energize and excite the Republican voters. Which side wins out?
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Okay, there's some weird sh*t on the web. An outfit named Intrade, describing itself as the world's leading prediction market, has the following:

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

60.2%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.02 / share
Today's Change: +$0.00 (+0%)

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

33.6%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $3.36 / share
Today's Change: -$0 (-0%)
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Jim, there's an outside chance Santorum could get this, isn't there? If Romney doesn't get more than 50% or the delegates, and thus doesn't win the nomination on the first ballot of the convention, aren't delegates then "released" to vote for whomever they want on the 2nd ballot? That is the way it works, n'est-ce pas? An obscure pundit once said: "This Republican primary is delicious."
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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It is possible, Bacchus, just as it is possible that in some alternate universe the '89 Baron would defeat the '89 Lynch in a blind tasting. In other words, it would be extremely unlikely. As crazy as it sounds, I can actually envision a scenario where Santotum beats Obama: He carries the south, then wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, NC. It's all academic, though, because Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States....

The prez is in big, big trouble....
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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I don't know, Jim, I might want to go with the bookies. Those guys can't afford to be partisan since it's money that's on the line. So if they're going 2-1 in favour of Obama . . . well, who am I to argue. Some of today's meaningless numbers:

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Pew Research Obama 54, Romney 42 Obama +12

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Reuters/Ipsos Obama 52, Romney 41 Obama +11

North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3

Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 46, Romney 40 Obama +6

President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 48, Disapprove 45 Approve +3

President Obama Job Approval Pew Research Approve 50, Disapprove 41 Approve +9
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

So, Bacchus... Who do you think is going to get the most delegates from last night, the guy who came in first place in Alabama and Mississippi, or the guy who came in third place?

Hint: His nickname is Mittens.

There was a good story on the news tonight. The Santorum organization is like Little League compared to Romney's pros when it comes to "the dark art of delegate math."

Thus the reason why Santorum is spending two days in Puerto Rico when the mega prize of Illinois is coming up.

This nomination process is over, and most people in the media don't even realize it.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Ya, you may very well be right about the race for the nomination, Jim. I've said more than once earlier in this thread that I don't really doubt that Romney will get it. At best I wondered if Santorum might have an "outside chance," as I put it above. I also realize that Romney got more delegates last night than Santorum because of the super delegates. Nice to get them on your side. I also saw a piece that Romney took his strategy for collecting delegates from Obama's 08 campaign. Again, he proves himself to be a closet liberal! :o
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by DavidG »

JimHow wrote:Bacchus: Don't put anything past a country that not once but twice elected George W. Bush.
Wait, I thought we only elected him once. The first time was some kind of weird alternative universe/time-space discontinue.

I agree with JIm that Romney is going to be the guy. Anything can happen in politics, but I think Jim's right.

I'm less sure about the general election. Jim's electoral analysis is convincing, but the election is still 8 months away, and in the next 3-6 months people will be making up their minds. Depends on who spins the economy numbers best. Republicans have been much better at getting the message across, but if there is overwhelming good or bad economic news, it may dwarf whatever the spinmeisters can do.

The election is just like the '03 Pontet Canet - it's just too damn early to be sure how it will turn out.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by DavidG »

But I admire Jim for making a pick and standing by his reasoning. Even if it might be some sort of self-protective defense mechanism to defray the risk of wrist-slitting if Obama should lose, I admire the guy for staking his claim.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Well said David!
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Nicklasss »

This is one of the most boring exchange on this community for long. I really don't understand why people could have an interest in politic, when there is wine.

My prediction: Kermit the frog will lose, and Elmo win. A muppet will replace another muppet. It always was, and will always be.

Nic
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

It is a defense mechanism indeed. It is similar to what I was doing with the Super Bowl, praising Eli to high heaven, in the hopes that the Pats would pull it out, but bracing for the worst. Except, well, the bad guy won there as well....

I just think it's the economy stupid. Notwithstanding the numbers in the stock market, and the modest improvement, I still think that the economy is very, very sick, and politics is very, very toxic right now. Even if someone is working, many can barely meet the bare essentials. It's one thing to have a job, it's another thing to earn a livable wage. Like with the Super Bowl, oh how I hope I am wrong about Romney! I've gotta believe he's going to win Illinois this week, though.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

CNN poll has Romney up on Obama among independents by a 49% to 42% margin. That can't be good news for the Democrats under any analysis.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Mitt Romney = My I'm Rotten.

The chances of Romney winning the general election are about as good as 19 wines from a single Bordeaux vintage being perfect. Just because someone says it's so doesn't make it true.

I'll agree with one thing. These poll numbers now don't mean squat. To the extent they reflect anything it's 8 Republicans (or whatever) versus one President. When it comes down to 10 weeks of Obama versus Romney one-on-one, people will see what Mitt's made of. Obama's a formidable campaigner and the Democrats have more to lose than the Republicans. As always, the caveat is an exogenous geopolitical event that shocks the economy. Otherwise the trend is favorable for Obama.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Steady, Jim. Here's an interesting take on the numbers:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... -ever.html
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by hm$ »

Following this thread, and while I agree with Jim that Romney will be the nominee, I think the process has made him a walking dead man.

hm$
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Having missed a number of days of polling results, I'll just list those of the last few days from battleground states. As Jim says, the nation wide polls are even more useless because of the way the Electoral College works:

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 42 Obama +8

Missouri: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 50, Obama 41 Romney +9

Florida: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3

Well, there's this too:
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 49, Disapprove 44 Approve +5
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Houndsong
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Jim, I think we should poll - anonymously of course - the membership here. Not on who they'll vote for, but on who they think will win. I think I see a trend here which may be predictive of the outcome and therefore highly valuable to news outlets that are starved for news.
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Ok, I'll start:

My prediction:

Mitt Romney

Vote total:

Barak Obama: 0

Mitt Romney: 1
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by DavidG »

I used a little administrator magic to put a poll on the first page of this thread, so you can vote there and the system will keep track.

edit- never mind, I see Hound's posted a similar poll...

Of course, like all internet polls, it is seriously flawed:
The participants are not representative of the population as a whole, or necessarily even of BWE membership.
There are only two choices, and they may not be the right ones.
You can only vote once, even if you're from Chicago
etc etc etc

Have at it...
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