When President Obama is re-elected!!

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pomilion
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by pomilion »

Depressing article on Republican redistricting strategy/efforts:

http://www.thenation.com/article/165976 ... ting-south
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Three new state-by-state tracking polls pitting the Prez against Romney:

1) New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama WMUR/UNH Obama 50, Romney 40 Obama +10

2) Georgia: Romney vs. Obama SurveyUSA Romney 51, Obama 43 Romney +8

3) Missouri: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Romney 45, Obama 45 Tie

Theses are interesting. No surprise that Obama is ahead in NH, and no surprise that Romney is ahead in Georgia. That the two are tied in Missouri, however, is a pleasant surprise, I should think. I would expect Romney to be ahead there.

Enjoying the 06 du Tertre this evening. Quite nice. Medium bodied: mostly red fruits (cherry, raspberry, current), hint of vanilla, earth, oak (touch of bitterness in the mid-palette, but not severe); nice balance between the acid and soft tannins. MIddle length. Some have detected something green on the palette, I don't. Not a block buster, but a nice almost pretty wine. Elegance rather than power. But not a complex wine. Enjoyable.
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

I'm telling you, these polls mean absolutely nothing, Bacchus. In August, the Republican nominee will get a bounce and will be ahead after the Republican convention, and the Democratic nominee will get a bounce after the a Democratic convention. Then the polls will shake out in September, and then the public will finally start paying attention in the last week of October, after the World Series. The Republicans will win because, as pomilion's article points out, they are a thousand times more ruthless politically that the pussy Democrats. Obama won a great election 3 years ago. Two years later, his party was massacred in Congress. The economy is going to kill Obama in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico, and he is going to become our next Jimmy Carter.
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pomilion
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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JimHow wrote: The Republicans will win because [...] they are a thousand times more ruthless politically that the pussy Democrats.
So true, sadly.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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It's true, the Repubs are amazingly ruthless; and amazingly anti-democracy. I have a hard time believing that anyone would vote for them, their subversion of the democratic process being so clear: gerrymandering, all the crap about id cards, outlawing unions, etc. They got balls, that's for sure (so why don't the Dems have balls?). But I don't think all is lost. There's obviously a fair bit of buyers remorse over the 2010 elections. And the economy is improving, even in all those rust belt states that will be so important to Obama:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/avantg ... 79413.html

He may loose VA and NC, but I think he's still got a chance with most of the others on your list, including FL. I think he's got a reasonable chance in any state that elected a tea-party type governor in 2010.

However, if he does loose, don't you have to call him the next GHW rather than the next Carter, since Bush 41 is the most recent 1-term pres?! :mrgreen:
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Tom In DC
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Tom In DC »

pomilion wrote:Depressing article on Republican redistricting strategy/efforts:

http://www.thenation.com/article/165976 ... ting-south
Oh, please. Gerrymandering districts is not a Republican invention. There's no way that a barbell district like mine occurs in nature...
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DavidG
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Yup, gerrymandering is rampant on both sides of the aisle. The Democrats in MD have just finished redrawing the districts to try to eliminate one of the Republican congressmen.

Here's an interesting Bill Moyers interview on why we are where we are and how we got here - at least the first part about why we can't work together to accomplish anything. I can't say I agree with much of the guest's premise later on in the interview.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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I'm very sorry for posting this, Jim, but since VA is one of the states you list as a problem for Obama, I couldn't help myself. Knowing that 9 months is an eternity in politics, it still brought a smile, albeit a small one, to my face:

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 47, Romney 43 Obama +4
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Jay Winton
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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as goes the economy, so goes Obama.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Saw that, Bacchus, and oh how I hope I am wrong on the Romney presidency. But remember: He who laughs last laughs best.
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Houndsong
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Yahoo just called the race for Obama. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/obam ... 43583.html

Romney has grown gills and a 3-day-old stink.
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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So after that debate last night I am convinced more than ever that Mitt Romney is the next president. He made mince meat out of Santorum, like he did with Gingrich the debate before that. Obama is not a great debater. Plus gasoline prices will destroy his presidency.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Romney has this whole phony American 21st century money-powered politician thing down to a science.
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DavidG
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Obama's debating skills are secondary to which group* is better at a) running a scorched-earth negative campaign against the other guy, b) counterpunching whent the other side throws up negative bullshit and c) convincing the average voter that the economy is going the way they want them to believe it's going.

*"group" includes not only the official Republican and Democratic campaigns but also all the other "non-affiliated" monied interests that have no restrictions on how much they spend on partisan political ads.
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stefan
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by stefan »

If Romney will GUARANTEE that he will double his personal income tax rate, then I will consider voting for him. My rate is 50% more than his, and that is on a teacher's salary.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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The single biggest fear I have about the inevitable Mitt Romney presidency is his supreme court nominations. They will be the final kibosh on the promise that once was Ametica.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Today's tracking polls:

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 43 Obama +6

Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Franklin & Marshall Obama 41, Romney 33 Obama +8

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Romney 39 Obama +10
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Tom In DC
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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C'mon, Jim. We've had 20 of the last 31 years with the same "The world will end based on this republican prez's sumpreme nominations" song and dance. Anyone paying attention would either have thought the end of the universe would have occurred long before this or that maybe it just doesn't work out that way.

But have no fear, Jimbo - the Grand Olde's contenders seem to be all set to lose to the lowest-approval-rating-ever President in the fall. Our politics have become a race to the bottom as far as I can tell. Should we somehow eliminate the fortunes made via insider trading by our elected reps -- something we mere mortals would do time for -- maybe we'll get to your idealized picture of our gubmint.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

George H.W. Bush's popularity rating 9 months before he got clobbered in the 1992 general election: 92%.

Rick Santorum's lead in Michigan less than a week ago: 10%.
My prediction as to how far he will finish behind Romney in Michigan next week: at least 10%, maybe 20%.

In other words: Rasmussen polls on Feb 23rd, or any other polls at this point, for that matter, mean less than zilch.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Missed a couple from yesterday:

Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama Marquette University Obama 53, Romney 38 Obama +15

Michigan: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 51, Romney 33 Obama +18

And while one Arizona poll has Romney up:
Arizona: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Romney 45, Obama 40 Romney +5

Another has them tied:
Arizona: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Romney 47, Obama 47 Tie
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

You're right Tom, but you think this primary is bad, wait til you see the general. Mitt is going to smoke Barack. And I feel so bad for women in this country....
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Will women vote for Romney now?
Will the latino population vote for him, now that he has come out so strongly against "illegal aliens?"
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Bacchus: Again, you are asking the wrong questions. You are watching too many talk shows. The media is as stupid as the American public, if not more so. It's not about the women's vote, or the Latino vote, or the Catholic vote, or whether the weather is good on election day, etc., etc., etc. That is all a myth. It is about... The economy, stupid! This general election is going to be so vile, it is going to be beyond belief.
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Tom In DC
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Tom In DC »

'Zactly, Bacchus. Maybe they'll give up the pro-gun stance when they see how many holes they've shot in their feet!
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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No way, Jim! Romney has forever lost the dog-lovers' vote! :P

So we wait to see how the economy shapes up between now and Nov. But if it is about the economy (and I don't doubt it for a moment), why do the Repubs continue to talk about contraception, abortion, illegal aliens, church rights, states' rights, etc.? Hardly a word about the economy. Some news program I saw this morning noted that the word "jobs" was mentioned a total of 6 times during the whole debate last evening!

I have a question about your methodology in forecasting election results, Jim. Since the polls are useless, upon what do you base your conviction of a Romney win in Nov?
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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The economy, gas prices, the slow agonizing disappearance of American greatness, and the general stupidity and ignorNce of the American voter. The US is a center-right country with an electoral map that favors the Republicans. I hope I'm wrong, but I tend to be right about these things. What does the 538.com guy predict these days? I think his model had Obama losing last time I checked.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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And why are the Republicans talking about social issues? To appeal to their base, of course, in the primary. Republicans are very uptight about sex. It is evil. The so called experts are arguing that the Republicans are setting themselves up for failure in November by going so hard to the right. The experts are ignorant. The primaries will be ancient history by the first Tuesday in November. By then the nominee will have moved back towards the center, like they always do. Just like the Democratic nominees always move back towards the center from their left leaning positions in the primaries. Those who underestimate Romney do so at their peril. This worm was governor of liberal Massachusetts. He's a snake oil salesman, a chameleon. As governor in a liberal state, he was pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, pro-universal health care coverage. Now he is a "severe conservative" who is anti-abortion, anti-gay-marriage, anti-universal health care. And the public is buying it hook, line and sinker.
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

I would like to know who JScott is going to vote for in the general election. Last time, after deliberation, he went with Obama. He lives in that politically ground zero area of Cincinnati. The land of the Joe the Plumbers and soccer moms. Whoever JScott is voting for, that is who will win the presidency in 2012.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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I always thought America was a left-of-centre country that just didn't want to admit it! Who gets more government money than the red states, especially the south?! Maybe their government money should be cut just so they can truly experience what it would mean to be without those dirty redistributed dollars.

MItt is certainly the chameleon par excellence. So if he wins, will he be old Mitt (the more progressive guy) or the new, "severely conservative" Mitt? In the marrow he really isn't that uber-right guy he's presenting himself to be. By Canadian terms, of course, he's off the scale.

Nate Silver is a bit bigger on Obama these days: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... vor-obama/
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

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Going to be a big night tonight for the next president of the U.S. I predict a double digit Romney victory in both Arizona and Michigan, as he all but clinches the nomination and begins to turn his focus on Obama. Olympia Snowe is not running for reelection, I think she has had enough.
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DavidG
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by DavidG »

JimHow wrote:Olympia Snowe is not running for reelection, I think she has had enough.
Sad to hear this. Who do you think is likely to replace her?
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Good question, the House members from our two Congressional Districts are Democrats, they may run against each other for the Democratic nomination. The Republican state senate president would be a likely candidate for the GOP. Brings back memories from 18 years ago when George Mitchell retired from the Senate, Congresswoman Snowe ran for his seat, and I ran for her seat.
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Blanquito
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Blanquito »

I think Obama has a better chance of re-election than the Red Sox do of making the postseason.

I'm usually right about these things (being a Yankees fan).
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Yes but that's not saying much.
President Mitt Romney... wow! No stopping him now.
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Houndsong
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Right now, the only number to consider is Obama's: 13,000. That's a rather large one, and if he adds to it by the election, he'll win.
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Bacchus
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Bacchus »

Jim, are you really as fatalistic as you sound, or are you just trying to yank the chain of all the libs that post here? :o Man, if Romney can only just win his "home state," how is he going to win the general? If his own party lacks all enthusiasm for him, how are registered Dems, the so-called Reagan Dems, and Independents going to get excited over him? Hey Jim, since you ran for Snowe's seat once before, how about going for it again? If you won you'd get to put a pretty fancy title in front of your name. :D
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

There was a great sage in Oakland who once said: "Just win, baby!"

That's all Romney does... He just wins. Not always pretty, but he just... wins.

Romney locked up the Republican nomination last night with that "narrow" win in Michigan.

As I have indicated, Bacchus, I hope I am wrong in my predictions about a Romney presidency.

But there is such malaise in this country, it is inevitable that Obama will become the next Carter or George H.W. Bush.

I have stated clearly the reasons why I believe Romney will win, I am dead serious in my reasoning.

As I've said numerous times, the poll results of today, more than eight months before the election, mean zilch.

If the election were held today, Obama would win. Just as if the Michigan primary were held last week, Santorum would have won. Unfortunately for him, it was not held last week, it was held this week. Likewise for Obama, unfortunately the election is not this week.

Re Olympia's seat, I have already gotten the multiple calls to run that I get every time there is an open seat. I wouldn't run for politics in the modern era even if they gave me one million dollars....
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stefan
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by stefan »

But what if they also offered you a 14% income tax rate, Jim?
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JimHow
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by JimHow »

Tempting, but even then....

I can't stand those scoundrels. It's why Olympia got out.
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Houndsong
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Re: When President Romney takes office....

Post by Houndsong »

Your analogy to GHW Bush is most inapt Jim. Only if the economy tanks into the fall will Obama be GHWB II and Romney be Clinton. On the other hand if the economy continues to improve, the proper analogy will be incumbent Clinton versus Bob Dole. My recall of facts may be imprecise but I remember Dole strenuously opposed the Clinton first-term tax increases. He made a huge point of this in 1996, but with the economy rocking he was left to argue how much better things would have been had Clinton and the Dems not raised taxes. Romney, whom nobody believes on social issues because he has zero credibility - all he needs is to take up windsurfing - will be left to Dole's strategy if the economy does not re-tank, and he will reap a similar harvest too.
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