Demand for 2011 Bordeaux Sizzles

[JonB]

Demand for 2011 Bordeaux Fizzles

Ben O'Donnell
Issue: October 15, 2012

The 2011 vintage may be remembered as a missed opportunity for Bordeaux. From the United States to Asia, wine consumers passed on buying the wines as futures. Leading retailers tell Wine Spectator that they took small allocations and even those were hard to sell.

Based on barrel tastings in April, Wine Spectator's James Molesworth gave the 2011 vintage a preliminary score of 88-91 points. That follows the classic 2010 (96-99) and 2009 (97) vintages, which meant price was all-important if the 2011s were to sell. And while most châteaus reduced prices by 20 percent to 50 percent compared with their 2010 wines, many 2011s were still costlier than older vintages currently on retail shelves. With the global economy still uncertain, buyers saw little incentive to participate in the en primeur campaign.

"It was not even too little, too late-it was just too late, too late," said Nikos Antonakeas, managing director of the Morrell Wine Group in New York. "I can understand the proprietor who can't all of the sudden reduce their price 80 percent. But at the same time, we have gone up 300 percent over the last decade, so what gives?"

Antonakeas took 5 percent of the allocations he bought last year. "[Négociants] were trying to sell me offers three times for the same wine in the same day. Wines that I usually have only five cases, ‘Oh, we'll give you 10 this year.' Yeah, nevermind, I'm not buying even the five," he said.

If conducted wisely, sales of futures can benefit producers and consumers alike: Châteaus can sell off much of their wine quickly, while consumers often get access to lower prices and higher quantities than they would when the wines are released. But overpricing, especially in an uninspiring vintage, can ruin the investment.

Many merchants, not to mention négociants and châteaus, still have unsold stock from the historically expensive 2010 vintage, and buyer excitement now centers on the phenomenal 2009s, the majority of which have now arrived on retail shelves. "You can't force a horse to drink when he's not thirsty," said négociant François Thienpont of Wings Wine. "I can buy '01 or '04 or '08 cheaper than I can buy '11," vintages of similar quality that are near or ready to drink.

The instability of the euro is a complicating factor. "If the euro is at parity with the dollar two years from now because of what's happening, then whoever bought now looks like an idiot," said Antonakeas. Of course, a gamble on the euro rising could pay out instead.

Not all sellers saw only doom and gloom. Retailers cited multiple wines priced well for their quality or buyers' demand-Pontet-Canet ($106), Vieux Château Certan ($147), Clinet ($82), La Fleur-Pétrus ($149), La Mission Haut-Brion ($336), Beychevelle ($75), and, in a lower price category, Cantemerle, La Lagune, Poujeaux, La Vieille Cure and Monbousquet.

Unlike in 2009 and 2010, when many Americans were priced out of Bordeaux but other economies picked up the slack, distributors report disinterest globally. "In China, there was some justifiable skepticism regarding the potential upside to investing in 2011, when 2009 and 2010 have performed so poorly relative to Chinese buyers' expectations," said Don St. Pierre, Jr., CEO of ASC Fine Wines, a premier Chinese importer. Hong Kong and London, reliable hubs of the fine Bordeaux trade, sat this one out too.

Some retailers predict that interest in 2011 will eventually pick up, from the typical collector, but there is no urgency to buy now at current prices. No one expects the vintage will bring new customers to Bordeaux at a time when the region is hurting for them.

Paradoxically, a less-than-stellar 2012 may be exactly what Bordeaux needs to get back on its feet. "Some [lesser estates] have a lot of stock at the château," Thienpont said. "If next year is an average vintage, you'll be sure to have the right price. Because they cannot play this game twice."

------
Wine Spectator article....what a difference a letter makes!

[JimHow]

I saw 2011 Cos listed for $69.

[Chasse-Spleen]

OK, so is it fizzles or sizzles?

[Chateau Vin]

I saw 2011 Cos listed for $69.

Yes Jim,

I too saw the overpriced 2011 Cos for $69...

[JimHow]

I take it you don't like the 2011 Cos, CV? I was looking forward to actually buying some for a change.

[DavidG]

Fizzles, not sizzles. The only ones sizzling are those negociants, importers or distributors who bought '11s in quantity. They are getting burned.

[Chateau Vin]

I take it you don't like the 2011 Cos, CV? I was looking forward to actually buying some for a change.

I like it OK Jim. But for my palate, Montrose and Calon are true representatives of Estephe in terms of expression. Cos and Phelan are a bit softer and riper. If I need softer wines and do not want "typical" estephe taste, I would rather go with other communes....Having said that, Cos has rightfully earned its place...

Secondly, generally speaking IMO, Montrose and Cos churn out vintages pretty much on par with each other...And 2011 was no different in my opinion...I got 2011 Montrose for $49 and there is no way that I will pay $69 for Cos unless I have compelling circumstances.

Moreover, I might as well plough in more for my favorites --- 2011 LB which I got for $59... and for 2011 pichon B which I got for $49;)

[JimHow]

How would you characterize the 2011 left bank vintage?
What past vintage is it most like?

[marcs]

I take it you don't like the 2011 Cos, CV? I was looking forward to actually buying some for a change.

I like it OK Jim. But for my palate, Montrose and Calon are true representatives of Estephe in terms of expression. Cos and Phelan are a bit softer and riper. If I need softer wines and do not want "typical" estephe taste, I would rather go with other communes....Having said that, Cos has rightfully earned its place...

Secondly, generally speaking IMO, Montrose and Cos churn out vintages pretty much on par with each other...And 2011 was no different in my opinion...I got 2011 Montrose for $49 and there is no way that I will pay $69 for Cos unless I have compelling circumstances.

Moreover, I might as well plough in more for my favorites --- 2011 LB which I got for $59... and for 2011 pichon B which I got for $49;)

Wow -- where did you get those prices? 2011 futures for Pichon B and Montrose are both at $100 a bottle in the U.S. right now.

Makes you see why there might be some fizzling going on...

[Chateau Vin]

How would you characterize the 2011 left bank vintage?
What past vintage is it most like?

May be the experts on the forum can comment better. But I think 2011 is closer to 2008, however I heard the yields were low especially in the top left bank...So for the growth chateaux, I would think they are more like 2008 but a little bit more concentrated...

[Chateau Vin]

Wow -- where did you get those prices? 2011 futures for Pichon B and Montrose are both at $100 a bottle in the U.S. right now.

Makes you see why there might be some fizzling going on...

Marc,

I am not a big fan of PremierCru, but PC has been offering sales in the past weeks (on and off) with those low prices. With such prices, I thought I would take a chance...

Some of the 2011 prices I have seen at the site were...

Margaux, HB and Mouton for $249
Leo P - 49;
Leo LC - 79
LB - 59
Montrose - 49
Pichon B - 49
Cos - 69
Malescot - 29

I mean, a growth bordeaux under 30 bucks? I could not pass...and I have to take a chance...

[JonB]

I ordered a few of these (2010/2011s with significant discounts to most retailer prices) as well. Both vintages are flat out overpriced for this market, and I'm guessing that PC secured sourcing from a negociant either wanting cash or testing the marketplace at lower pricing.

The article implies the market is fizzling at retail (lack of consumer demand), and at distributor/negociant level (lack of retailer demand). It would seem to be a lot of supply to dump on the hypermarkets in a struggling economy.

[Claudius2]

Guys
Malescot is $S64 each herre en primeur.
That is about $US50 thus $29 is a bargain.