How Old Are You and When to Do Stop Buying New Vintages

[OrlandoRobert]

So Jim's 13th BWE Anniversary thread got me thinking . . . YOU GUYS ARE OLD!

Just kidding, good on you guys for putting together this great forum.

So we have another thread pumping the 2010s, which I have now bought. I'm 47. Was thinking I will be 57-60 when these classic wines like GPL just start hitting their drinking window.

Thoughts on what age we should stop buying new releases from big, classic vintages like 2010? I'm thinking that I cannot be that far off, perhaps age 50?

Similar to Aloha Guy mentioning on another thread, I really do have an abundance of young stuff. I was not buying Bordeaux from 1993-2003/4 - what I call my "poor years" - when I had to buy in as an equity shareholder in my business, had a new kid and my wife quite her lucrative job (the triple whammy!). During that period I drank up too much of my stash (medicinal needs). So my Bdx collection is way too young. Lots of 2005, 04, 03, 08 and now a smattering of '09s and '10s. I have been selectively buying more mature vintages at great prices for special occasions, i.e., when BobbyGoutlet comes over and says, "watcha popping" and "how's your wife doing"?. Have grabbed 1982s, 86s and 89s, a couple cases at good prices. But I'm pouring through them as well.

[stefan]

I'm 68 and have so far purchased 96 bottles of 2010 Bordeaux plus some 2010 Burgundy and Oregon Pinots. I'll be in That Great Tasting Room in the Sky when some of these are ready to drink, but Lucie and my kids and their spouses and my grandchildren will enjoy them.

[Blanquito]

Stefan, you are my wine-buying hero.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Yeah but that's 96/7 in Stefan drinking-years.

The answer depends on how long you plan to live. Admittedly my bigger fear is the vinous nuclear winter, when one has outlived one's wine.

[Blanquito]

Orlando, I am 41 years-old (42 in April), I have around 2000 bottles, and I was wondering the same thing.

So, I worked up my wine list recently to see when I will need to be drinking which portion of my wine, and I was heartened to see that 2010 Bordeaux actually fills a big gap in my cellar from drinking from 2032 onwards! This is actually a fairly conservative guesstimate as it is based on the upper end of Parker's drinking windows, so presumably many wines will be "ready" years earlier (though Parker's drinking windows can be a bit over-cautious on ageing potentials).

Cellar Drinking Windows (% needing to be drank by given end date)
Now-2013 - 13%
2013-2017 - 12%
2018-2022 - 26%
2023-2027 - 20%
2028-2032 - 17%
2033-2037 - 7%
2038-2042 - 3%
2043-2047 - 2%
2048-2052 - 0%

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Well, when you put it that way, it does appear there may be a "bottle gap."

[Blanquito]

... The answer depends on how long you plan to live. Admittedly my bigger fear is the vinous nuclear winter, when one has outlived one's wine.

We all need a wine-buying actuary.

[robertgoulet]

have been selectively buying more mature vintages at great prices for special occasions, i.e., when BobbyGoutlet comes over and says, "watcha popping" and "how's your wife doing"?. Have grabbed 1982s, 86s and 89s, a couple cases at good prices.

Yes, Robert, how is your wife doing? Lol

[jmccready]

Caution Stefan, Lucie might be drinking the 2010's with her new boyfriend.(i.e. slow down the buying of new vintages.) JM

[Mike Christensen]

I'm 60, nearing retirement in a couple of years, about the only thing I've definitely stopped buying is Dunn Howell Mountain (was on the list up until a year ago), though I am looking at picking up some more 1990-1994 Howell Mtns. Every one of those I've drunk lately has been outstanding.

Haven't really bought any top, long-lived Bordeaux from either 2009 or 2010, mostly buying shorter-term quaffers that need no more than 10 years to round out. Bought a few 2008's (Margaux, LLC, Leoville-Barton) figuring those would be the last I bought on futures. Looking at buying older vintages to fill in what I've drunk (1986's, 1988's, 1989's, 1990's mostly).

Plus, I seem to have nearly cornered the market in the USA on Ravenswood Old Hill zins from 1985-1995 (I think I've bought about 3 cases all for $30/btl over the last year or so), and every one of those has been outstanding (even the 1988/1989 were better than expected, probably from a cold cellar). I'll probably be hovering those for a bit longer...

I'll probably buy Chateaneuf, Cote-Rotie, Burgundies and Brunello's for another 5-10 years.

[DavidG]

Stefan and Mike, I am in awe of you. I'm 57 and stopped buying Bordeaux futures with the 2010s. Not only due to age, but also in good part due to price, maturity dates, amount of Bordeaux in the cellar and current consumption rates. If any one of those factors were to change, I might be inclined to start buying again. I know I'm not going to get younger, but maturity dates, prices, in-cellar inventory and consumption rates are all subject to change. So I probably haven't hung up my Visa card for good.

[JimHow]

57 is the new 29.
Come on, 57 + 20 = 77.
By the time you're 77 the average male lifespan will be 87.
I'm 54 and I figure I have at least 5-8 more years of buying the recently released vintage.

[Harry C.]

David literally took my post word for word. Is there such a thing as pre-plagerism?

[RDD]

I'm 58 going on 13 according to Susan.
But 2003 was the last vintage in large quantity. And it was for very select properties.
I've bought some current early every night drinkers.
But some of the Bordeaux prices are too steep and we have built an addition for my Dad to stay with us so money went that way.
Wine is/was a better investment than real estate but necessity called.
But I figure I have enough properly stored older vintages to swap for tastes of the younger vintages.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Stefan and Mike, I am in awe of you. I'm 57 and stopped buying Bordeaux futures with the 2010s.

In other words, you just stopped.

[JimHow]

Yeah, yeah, David has "stopped." Just like he "stopped" in 2009 <cough...Angelus...Giscours>. Just like he "stopped" in 2008... <cough...Gruaud Larose>. Mark me.... Before this night is over.... DavidG will purchase 2010 Bordeaux three times....

[DavidG]

Hey! I'm verrrry good at stopping. Done it multiple times. And I can do it again. Any time I want. I might have to buy some '10 s just to prove I can stop again. Don't make me show you, Jim How!

[JimHow]

My problem is I'm a 24 year old boy trapped in a 54 year old man's body.

And I'm like not even kidding....

Forever Young
Bob Dylan

May God bless and keep you always
May your wishes all come true
May you always do for others
And let others do for you
May you build a ladder to the stars
And climb on every rung
May you stay forever young
Forever young, forever young
May you stay forever young.

May you grow up to be righteous
May you grow up to be true
May you always know the truth
And see the lights surrounding you
May you always be courageous
Stand upright and be strong
May you stay forever young
Forever young, forever young
May you stay forever young.

May your hands always be busy
May your feet always be swift
May you have a strong foundation
When the winds of changes shift
May your heart always be joyful
And may your song always be sung
May you stay forever young
Forever young, forever young
May you stay forever young.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Who joked he quit cocaine hundreds of times? Don't think it was Richard Prior. Might have been George Carlin.

[Claret]

Closing in on 53 and done due to a likeing for aged Bordeaux, prohibitive pricing on many of my favorite wines and diversification into other areas.

[Nicklasss]

Age don't matter. I'll stop buying Bordeaux, including the latest vintage, only when I'll be dead.

Nic

[JimHow]

I agree Jean-Nicolas.
the red Sox have a relief pitcher, Alfredo Aceves, he's a little crazy. In September 2011, when the Red Sox were blowing a huge lead in the standings, Alfredo was like the only pitcher who was doing well. Problem is Francona was sticking him in there like every game and by the last week his arm was hanging. And in the final days, a reporter asked him: Will you be able to go tomorrow? He looked at her with contempt. "If I wake up in the morning, I will pitch," he said in his broken English.

Likewise: "If I wake up in the morning, I will buy Bordeaux...."

[Tom In DC]

OK, first off, OrlandoBob, if you're buying 2010's expecting them to be ready in 10-12 years, I don't think your reading comprehension is too good. These wines are from a structured vintage -- they might drink well for a couple/few years after delivery (not counting Premier Cru delivery, of course!), but at 10 years old I'm stating for absolute fact that these will shut down hard. I loved a lot of what I tasted at the DC UGC tasting, but these wines will be beasts. Hey, I bought 1986's on release, OK? 2010's aren't 1986-tough, but they're sterner than most 1995's.

Getting onto topic, I like my Bordeaux with a lot of years on them. Unfortunately, I'm getting to the point where I also have lots of years on me -- same vintage as DavidG, but I'm still a year younger when asked "How old are you?" !!! -- so being immortal is a less and less convincing concept. We won't be buying any more vintage Port, for example. At our typical rate of consumption, we're probably good for 30 more years, and if I'm still drinking Port then, it'll be one thimble-full at a time or I'll slip into a coma. Similarly, we probably have 40 years worth of Sauternes/Barsac.

On the other hand, we'll keep buying 2nd tier Bordeaux blanc (Domaine de Chevalier, Fieuzal, Carbonnieux) because we'll need some nice mature whites ten or more years from now to go with whatever the Doc's tell us we should be eating.

I'm a bit confused by folks who bought 2009's but refrained from 2010 because of pricing -- I'm seeing 2010 offers all the time at prices significantly lower than anything I've ever sen for the same wines in 2009.

But I don't see great value for the consumer (i.e., moi) in red Bordeaux these days. Excellent 1er cru Burgs can be found for a fraction of the cost of similarly-pedigreed Bordeaux. The best names in Hermitage have gotten out of my range but there seem to be a bunch of new Cote Rotie producers who actually want to sell their wine to consumers. Champagne seems a relative bargain for all but the most famous names, and I think I'm stealing when I find good Chablis from a hitherto unknown-to-me producer.

And that's just France! Nebbiolo is my grape of choice of late and nearly everyone in the Piedmont is making more approachable wines than a few decades ago - yup, even Giacosa and both Conterno's. And while Jim thinks Brunello sucks, I think it's pretty darn good after a few years in the basement and quite affordable vis a vis classified Bordeaux. And then there are wines from Bolgheri, the Veneto, Friuli, Umbria, Campagnia, Sicily, and on and on...

So there it is. Apparently, I'll need to keep working into my 80's to support my wine budget. Thank goodness the kids are out of college and well on their way career-wise!

[AlexR]

Nic wrote: "Age don't matter. I'll stop buying Bordeaux, including the latest vintage, only when I'll be dead."

That's the spirit, Nic!!!
====================

I'm pushing 60. I have a good backlog of wine, about 1,200 bottles. Neither of my two children are into wine.
So, I say to myself: in an ideal world, I would drink most of the good stuff before I kick the bucket.
However, like Nic, like François Audouze, I cannot seem to stop myself from adding to the cellar, even though it's not entirely reasonable...

The heart of my cellar is a wide range of 2000 great growths, mostly one bottle of each, but fril many of the leading Médoc estates.
I hope to start broaching these in 2020. I've already started to open the less exalted 2000s.
In fact, had a 2005 last night, a Gazin-Roquencourt, from the Malartic-Lagravière stable. It was a little too young, but very enjoyable.

In my situation, it does not make sense to buy great Bordeaux en primeur. But that still leaves a lot of scope for other wines.
And, yes, due to the price increase and my age, I have turned to other regions.
Burgundy is not so hard when young, although there is this awkward and unpredictable shutting down stage everyone talks about.
I have developed a real fondness for Côte Rôtie, and these wines show well after 5-7 years in bottle. I recently stocked up.

Alex R.

[Comte Flaneur]

I will be 50 in three months and started scaling back purchases in the 2000 vintage. I went mad in the late 1990s and have a lot of good stuff from 1994-99, especially the 95, 96 and 98 vintages. Since 2000 I have been buying tactically and have accumulated quite a lot of 2001s in the last decade because I think it is a fabulous QPR when a lot of punters were maxed out on 2000s. I am very light on vintages from 2005-2009 but am making a reasonably decisive foray in to the 2010s, which I hope to drink from age 70. If I snuff it before then I am very happy holding wealth in the form of things like 2010 EP to pass down to my offspring because it will be a fairly liquid market and should provide a better return than cash and bonds in an era of financial repression (protracted negative real interest rates). If prices for 2010s start to come off I might buy more because as Tom and others have suggested this vintage will last decades.