Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

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Jeff Leve
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Jeff Leve »

Arv... I have friends that all have similar experiences. They are all forced to wait for their wines longer than they should. The same as I do. I am personally aware of one friend that was told he would not receive large formats of the wine he ordered. They made him whole by giving him full market value for in stock wines, which he has received.

I get why people are tired of waiting. Those people should not buy from PC. Long term and short term posters and lurkers are well aware of the fact that they will need to wait for their wine. Knowing that in advance, they should either wait and take the discount, or not buy from them.
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Blanquito
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

What amazes me is after all these years we still don't really know what goes on behind the curtain. No one has come forward, no former employee or insider who might shed some light on their practices.

Maybe it's all innocent and PC uses its market position to leverage amazing deals from big negociants, who then occasionally sell rights to PC on wines they don't end up having. This possibility is reassuring, but it doesn't explain why it takes so long for PC to deliver on its orders. Sure, they need to wait for a whole container to fill up before shipping, but how long can that really take?

Or maybe PC just makes up prices and offers wines they assume they can source later at a profit (this is the scary scenario). And that's why it takes so long, they just wait and wait until somebody blinks or the currency shifts. This scenario doesn't mean they have to go out of business inevitably, unless they get their guesses really wrong and lose money on wines that they never can deliver. But it's not what we expect when we pay for prearrivals.

But after all these years, it's still really all just conjecture. We still really don't know. Maybe the employees don't know either (they just pass on what they are told) and so can't really shed any light on the matter.
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DavidG
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by DavidG »

I agree Patrick. Amazing that there's been no insider info on what they actually do. If there's something nefarious going on it's got to be the best kept secret since the Manhattan Project. Maybe it's a cult...
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Michael-P »

Jeff:

So how long would you wait before taking action?
In this case, it's 09s paid for in summer 2010.
Thanks,

Michael-P
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Jeff Leve
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Jeff Leve »

Michael-P wrote:Jeff:

So how long would you wait before taking action?
In this case, it's 09s paid for in summer 2010.
Thanks,

Michael-P
Michael

I got my 2009's last year. In fact, they were not the only merchant to deliver in 2014. Another well-known store also completed their order to me laste year. FWIW, for PC, your order is not that late. Which does not excuse it, but it is what it is.

Forgive me, but I did not read all your posts. Did you ask for a refund? If so, what did they say?

A for hiring a lawyer, your only damage is the difference between the value of wine today, and it's current replacement cost. Unless you really ponied up big time, it cannot be worth the cost & trouble to hire a lawyer. If you are concerned, ask for a refund, or replacement with in-stock wines.

Also, I think you've been on this board, if not others since at least early 2009. There have been complaints about the lateness of PC for years. I understand why people reading all those posts will not buy from PC. But knowing they were slower than molasses, why did you buy from them?
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

It is just my luck that I ordered some 2010 or 2009 futures (small quantity) from them counting on the "PC lay-away plan" as virtual storage while I was in Hawaii. To my chagrin, the wine was ready to ship in about one year. Therefore I agree, they suck! You can't count on them for anything.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by stefan »

Art, generally PC will hold your wine at their Berkeley store for as long as you want, and their storage there is excellent.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Michael-P »

Jeff:

I am in no rush to get my wines, especially for large format 09s. The 750s (of the same wines) have already been delivered (that's also why I don't just want more 750s).

I just want to know that I am going to get the wines I paid for and the longer I don't, and the scarcity of large formats increase and the prices of 09s increase, the more I worry that I'll ever get them.

So you suggest waiting until?

And like the Koch's, I don't mind spending more on lawyers than my wine is worth. Even though that makes no financial sense, I guess have some sense of duty to make wrongs right.

Michael
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Jeff Leve
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Jeff Leve »

No idea on how long you should, or should not wait. That's up to you.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by marcs »

Blanquito wrote:Below is the percentage of my $$$ expenditures at PC (based on the year the order was made) that have been fulfilled to date.
2015 - 7%
2014 - 58%
2013 - 89%
2012 - 97%
2011 - 89%
2010 - 98%
2009 - 100%
2008 - 100%
2007 - 100%
2006 - 100%
2005 - 100%
2004 - 100%
2003 - 100%
All Time - 91%

For example, if I spent $100 total at PC in 2014, they've delivered wine to date worth $58 and I am still waiting on $42 worth of wine from that year.
This is very interesting to me since I've received maybe 10-20% of my 2010s, ordered about 3 years ago, and precisely none of my 2012s, ordered 1-2 years ago. Can I ask when you ordered these? Thanks...
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Blanquito
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

marcs wrote:
Blanquito wrote:Below is the percentage of my $$$ expenditures at PC (based on the year the order was made) that have been fulfilled to date.
2015 - 7%
2014 - 58%
2013 - 89%
2012 - 97%
2011 - 89%
2010 - 98%
2009 - 100%
2008 - 100%
2007 - 100%
2006 - 100%
2005 - 100%
2004 - 100%
2003 - 100%
All Time - 91%

For example, if I spent $100 total at PC in 2014, they've delivered wine to date worth $58 and I am still waiting on $42 worth of wine from that year.
This is very interesting to me since I've received maybe 10-20% of my 2010s, ordered about 3 years ago, and precisely none of my 2012s, ordered 1-2 years ago. Can I ask when you ordered these? Thanks...
Marcs, the years I list are not vintages of Bordeaux, but the actual year I made an order of any wine from PC. For example, I ordered most of my 2010 Bordeaux at PC in the calendar year 2013 (along with some other non Bordeaux wines) and I have received to date 89% of the cash value of the orders made in that year (and incidentally, 100% of my 2010 Bordeaux orders).

I didn't order any 2012 Bordeaux, so I don't have any info specific to the deliveries of those wines.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Actually, Stefan, I don't recall whether I took delivery or not! I am bad at loose ends and since I seem to be constantly in flux I'm a bit like you: I like ordering the wines without any definite plan or timeframe for accepting them. Now I have to figure out how much longer I can kick various cans down the road pending moving back to Hawaii.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by DavidG »

I'll defer to the lawyers here, but Michael I'm not sure that you'd be successful in a suit if PC offers to give you back the money you spent in lieu of the wine. Proving damages due to lost opportunity on wine futures purchases sounds good on the internet but I'm skeptical of its likelihood of success in court. Maybe if you had Kochs' lawyers you would prevail. But by the time you won, you would've spent many times the amount you did on the wine, and some of them would probably be reaching over-the-hill status.

I think you'll get the wines if you wait. I had to wait 7.5 years from purchase, 6 years beyond normal release date for 2005 L'Eglise Clinet (purchased May 2007, delivered November 2014), but I got it. Those were 750s, not mags. If your primary goal is to obtain the wines in magnum format, you have a tough choice, since it seems there is a good likelihood they wont be able to source mags and will offer you 750s in their place.

So which is more important, the money or the mags?

If mags are top priority, I would probably try to make a deal with PC to get my money back and buy the wines in magnum format elsewhere, before they are unobtainable. You might be able to get back more than you put in. My sense is that's more likely to happen the longer you've been waiting. Your wines are about 2.5 years overdue - long by most standards but perhaps not by PC time. I would call and be up front with them. "I need mags. I'm not sure you'll be able to deliver mags. The wine is worth x% more now than when I ordered it, and I'd like my money back plus some part of that x%." See what they say.

If you don't really mind getting 750s in place of the mags, I would wait another 2 years, calling every spring and fall and asking if they still believe that they'll be able to deliver. From a financial perspective, that will probably be your best deal.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by JimHow »

I dunno.
I'm just a country lawyer from Maine, scratching my head here.
Seems like a lot of grief to me to get my (tens of(?) hundreds of (?)) thousands of dollars of grape juice into my cellar.
I mean, notwithstanding the Pol Roger Blanc de Blancs, are the deals THAT much better that it is worth the daily, 24/7 distress of waiting the extra time/fretting whether I'm getting screwed?
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Regardless of how it's billed, if the arrangement as understood is that PC acts as your agent to try and procure wines for you at a discount in an indeterminate time frame, I see nothing wrong with that, provided that is the agreement. That is I see nothing morally or legally wrong. You would always bear the risk your agent defaults or steals your money - I mean you could demand a bond or something up front or sue later, good luck of course. The thing that I'm not sure I would go for in general is the loss of use of the money and the free use of the money that you're giving PC. I mean do they play the horses, is that the float?

The other thing I don't get is this. What is their pricing model? Do they just pull shit out of their asses? If they offer 40% discount to current retail, do they have some formula which tells them they think they can get it for 60% off at some point and pocket the difference?
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by stefan »

From the PC website:

"Pre-Arrival Wines
The term "Pre-Arrival" is applied to wines we have purchased (typically abroad) that have not arrived yet. Depending on the particular wine, the arrival time is typically 6+ months to over two years (in the case of Bordeaux Futures, for example)."

If PC does not have title to the wines they are selling, it is fraud, pure and simple. It looks to me unlikely that a company that has been around as long as PC is engaged in such blatant fraud.

Years ago I had serious non delivery problems with PC. The problem then was that they sold more of some wines than they actually had purchased because of too late updating of their inventory or mistakenly sold wine that arrived a second time. They cleaned up their inventory system and I have had no problems since. Now when pre arrivals arrive they parcel the wine into bins designated for the buyer until the buyer orders it shipped.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AKR »

stefan wrote:From the PC website:

"Pre-Arrival Wines
The term "Pre-Arrival" is applied to wines we have purchased (typically abroad) that have not arrived yet. Depending on the particular wine, the arrival time is typically 6+ months to over two years (in the case of Bordeaux Futures, for example)."

If PC does not have title to the wines they are selling, it is fraud, pure and simple. It looks to me unlikely that a company that has been around as long as PC is engaged in such blatant fraud.

Years ago I had serious non delivery problems with PC. The problem then was that they sold more of some wines than they actually had purchased because of too late updating of their inventory or mistakenly sold wine that arrived a second time. They cleaned up their inventory system and I have had no problems since. Now when pre arrivals arrive they parcel the wine into bins designated for the buyer until the buyer orders it shipped.
I've had stuff break in the warehouse, which I can actually believe.

BTW, many of you may remember the lovely and gracious Darcy who worked there many years ago - I heard from PC that after she got married / engaged or something boy related (dashing the hopes of so many who only knew her by her alluring voice on the phone, and ability to magically find 1990 Bordeaux for you) she has become the F&B director of an Italian (!!!) place somewhere in the South Bay.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by marcs »

stefan wrote:From the PC website:

"Pre-Arrival Wines
The term "Pre-Arrival" is applied to wines we have purchased (typically abroad) that have not arrived yet. Depending on the particular wine, the arrival time is typically 6+ months to over two years (in the case of Bordeaux Futures, for example)."

If PC does not have title to the wines they are selling, it is fraud, pure and simple. It looks to me unlikely that a company that has been around as long as PC is engaged in such blatant fraud.

Years ago I had serious non delivery problems with PC. The problem then was that they sold more of some wines than they actually had purchased because of too late updating of their inventory or mistakenly sold wine that arrived a second time. They cleaned up their inventory system and I have had no problems since. Now when pre arrivals arrive they parcel the wine into bins designated for the buyer until the buyer orders it shipped.
I don't think it could possibly be true that they have 'purchased' the wines in the sense that they actually have title and ownership of the physical wine when you make the pre-arrival order. That is just not consistent with 5-year delivery times and constant uncertainty/misinformation about when the wine might arrive. I suspect they have some kind of contract with a middleman who has committed to get the wines for them. But as someone said above, their business model remains one of the best-kept secrets in the wine biz.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by marcs »

Blanquito wrote:
Marcs, the years I list are not vintages of Bordeaux, but the actual year I made an order of any wine from PC. For example, I ordered most of my 2010 Bordeaux at PC in the calendar year 2013 (along with some other non Bordeaux wines) and I have received to date 89% of the cash value of the orders made in that year (and incidentally, 100% of my 2010 Bordeaux orders).
Also very interesting since I ordered most of my 2010 futures in calendar year 2012, before you, and have received maybe 15 percent of the 2010s I ordered in 2012. Are you open to sharing which specific 2010 futures you ordered in 2013? I ordered some Cos, La Conseillante, Ducru Beaucaillou, Angelus, Montrose, Leoville Poyferre, and Cos d'Estournel in 2012, but have only received the Poyferre
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

marcs wrote:
Blanquito wrote:
Marcs, the years I list are not vintages of Bordeaux, but the actual year I made an order of any wine from PC. For example, I ordered most of my 2010 Bordeaux at PC in the calendar year 2013 (along with some other non Bordeaux wines) and I have received to date 89% of the cash value of the orders made in that year (and incidentally, 100% of my 2010 Bordeaux orders).
Also very interesting since I ordered most of my 2010 futures in calendar year 2012, before you, and have received maybe 15 percent of the 2010s I ordered in 2012. Are you open to sharing which specific 2010 futures you ordered in 2013? I ordered some Cos, La Conseillante, Ducru Beaucaillou, Angelus, Montrose, Leoville Poyferre, and Cos d'Estournel in 2012, but have only received the Poyferre
Nice orders, Marcs! I didn't order any of those chateau. I went for GPL, Brane Cantenac, Branaire Ducru, d'Issan, Talbot, Gloria, Cantemerle, and some cheapies like Laforge.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AKR »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
I think you all are trying to come up with complex solutions for something that is simple - they sell what they do not have.

They rely on John Fox having enough market savvy that he can generally get the stuff, eventually.

And they have not blown up yet, although all these vintages of the century, and price rallies have been no doubt causing problems.

Most of the time: there is lots of interest in a certain wine/region when it gets a write up - WA, WS WOTY, Suckling Cravat Worthy etc. So he can sell the undelivered stuff then, at pumped up prices. Later, when supply demand has normalized, and it turns out that the trade cannot really sell infinite amounts of Ch. St. Jean Cinqu Cepages for $125 per, he is able to get it lower, and delivers to his prearrival.

There isn't any other explanation that fits the facts, circumstances, and experiences of not only my orders, but what I see described on boards.

If you can understand/accept this, manage what 'business' you send them, and can tolerate delays -- or the risk of a loss -- they maybe it works for you.

The problem of course is that all of this was not as bad 5 or 10 years ago.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by marcs »

AKR wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
I think you all are trying to come up with complex solutions for something that is simple - they sell what they do not have.

They rely on John Fox having enough market savvy that he can generally get the stuff, eventually.

And they have not blown up yet, although all these vintages of the century, and price rallies have been no doubt causing problems.

Most of the time: there is lots of interest in a certain wine/region when it gets a write up - WA, WS WOTY, Suckling Cravat Worthy etc. So he can sell the undelivered stuff then, at pumped up prices. Later, when supply demand has normalized, and it turns out that the trade cannot really sell infinite amounts of Ch. St. Jean Cinqu Cepages for $125 per, he is able to get it lower, and delivers to his prearrival.

There isn't any other explanation that fits the facts, circumstances, and experiences of not only my orders, but what I see described on boards.

If you can understand/accept this, manage what 'business' you send them, and can tolerate delays -- or the risk of a loss -- they maybe it works for you.

The problem of course is that all of this was not as bad 5 or 10 years ago.
Yes, this is the only explanation that makes sense to me. The problem is that I don't see any possible scenario under which the higher-level Bordeauxs from 2009-2010 go down in price, ever. Certainly not down to the prices that PC sold them to me at. Unless maybe the Euro radically collapses. Or someone releases counterfeits on to the market for cheap. So I am having a hard time figuring out how much to trust PC to deliver. But they have always delivered to me in the past.

I'll tell you this though -- if they do get those wines to me I will become a born-again acolyte for them. If not, not so much.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by marcs »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
This is a crucial question and not over-complexifying at all. If their business model really is to offer a bargain price today for something they don't have, the key question is how they know they can make a profit on that bargain price by buying sometime in the future. Especially since prices for the top wines have been on a steady upward march for years. Even though there is a lot of internet bellyaching about them, there aren't enough reports of straight-up non-deliveries to make it plausible that they fund themselves by just reneging on committments. At least so far, it's been more like the opposite -- they do manage to deliver eventually.

Sorry to go on so much about this but the reliability of PC is like the crucial question in my Bordeaux life right now. 2010 is likely my last big vintage and I bet the farm on them delivering.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by DavidG »

Arv's explanation seems like the only logical one..

...but...
...but...
...but...

How do they keep making the right bets year after year after year? I know they don't have to be right all of the time, just enough to stay solvent. But they kept their heads above water while fulfilling 2005 Bordeaux orders that went way up in price and never came down to futures levels despite the recession. I suppose they must have taken a bath on that. But they also managed to build a new store during that time frame. I guess real estate was cheap, but still it remains a mystery to me.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AKR »

DavidG wrote:Arv's explanation seems like the only logical one..

...but...
...but...
...but...

How do they keep making the right bets year after year after year? I know they don't have to be right all of the time, just enough to stay solvent. But they kept their heads above water while fulfilling 2005 Bordeaux orders that went way up in price and never came down to futures levels despite the recession. I suppose they must have taken a bath on that. But they also managed to build a new store during that time frame. I guess real estate was cheap, but still it remains a mystery to me.
I think they just have to stay liquid, not solvent.

There is no bank regulator marching around their offices forcing them to 'mark to market' their 'short' position in 2009 Ausone Double Mags or anything.

Firms in Japan put off the days of reckoning for decades.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

Maybe they "lock in" prices with suppliers but then invest our money in broader equities or bonds or currencies, and once they've made enough profit on it, they cash out and pay for the wines at that point? This way they can offer low prices while still making a profit. Of course, some of the contracts they signed 3-5 years earlier may fall through, explaining some of the fulfillment issues. If the market fails to return much on their investments, wine also presumably drops in price too.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

marcs wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
This is a crucial question and not over-complexifying at all. If their business model really is to offer a bargain price today for something they don't have, the key question is how they know they can make a profit on that bargain price by buying sometime in the future. Especially since prices for the top wines have been on a steady upward march for years. Even though there is a lot of internet bellyaching about them, there aren't enough reports of straight-up non-deliveries to make it plausible that they fund themselves by just reneging on committments. At least so far, it's been more like the opposite -- they do manage to deliver eventually.

Sorry to go on so much about this but the reliability of PC is like the crucial question in my Bordeaux life right now. 2010 is likely my last big vintage and I bet the farm on them delivering.
Thanks. It is a matter of curiosity for me. It is not how do they profit or stay in business, simply how do they rationally establish a price at which they would sell something when they really have no idea what that something will cost them in the future? The answer is equally simple: they can't--on that basis anyway. That's my conclusion. And it follows from that that their pricing has nothing to do with cost (or potential cost or future cost). It bears a rational relationship to their business only in that it is calculated to drive demand (i.e. payment) from customers who choose to "buy" from PC because they have a lower "price" than their competitors.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:
marcs wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
This is a crucial question and not over-complexifying at all. If their business model really is to offer a bargain price today for something they don't have, the key question is how they know they can make a profit on that bargain price by buying sometime in the future. Especially since prices for the top wines have been on a steady upward march for years. Even though there is a lot of internet bellyaching about them, there aren't enough reports of straight-up non-deliveries to make it plausible that they fund themselves by just reneging on committments. At least so far, it's been more like the opposite -- they do manage to deliver eventually.

Sorry to go on so much about this but the reliability of PC is like the crucial question in my Bordeaux life right now. 2010 is likely my last big vintage and I bet the farm on them delivering.
Thanks. It is a matter of curiosity for me. It is not how do they profit or stay in business, simply how do they rationally establish a price at which they would sell something when they really have no idea what that something will cost them in the future? The answer is equally simple: they can't--on that basis anyway. That's my conclusion. And it follows from that that their pricing has nothing to do with cost (or potential cost or future cost). It bears a rational relationship to their business only in that it is calculated to drive demand (i.e. payment) from customers who choose to "buy" from PC because they have a lower "price" than their competitors.
So it's back to the "successful fraud" model.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AKR »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:
marcs wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:But again, presuming their business model is to buy lower later, how do they rationally price the wines for pre-arrival sales today? That's what interests me.
This is a crucial question and not over-complexifying at all. If their business model really is to offer a bargain price today for something they don't have, the key question is how they know they can make a profit on that bargain price by buying sometime in the future. Especially since prices for the top wines have been on a steady upward march for years. Even though there is a lot of internet bellyaching about them, there aren't enough reports of straight-up non-deliveries to make it plausible that they fund themselves by just reneging on committments. At least so far, it's been more like the opposite -- they do manage to deliver eventually.

Sorry to go on so much about this but the reliability of PC is like the crucial question in my Bordeaux life right now. 2010 is likely my last big vintage and I bet the farm on them delivering.
Thanks. It is a matter of curiosity for me. It is not how do they profit or stay in business, simply how do they rationally establish a price at which they would sell something when they really have no idea what that something will cost them in the future? The answer is equally simple: they can't--on that basis anyway. That's my conclusion. And it follows from that that their pricing has nothing to do with cost (or potential cost or future cost). It bears a rational relationship to their business only in that it is calculated to drive demand (i.e. payment) from customers who choose to "buy" from PC because they have a lower "price" than their competitors.
If you were a trade seller - why on earth would you rationally sell below market (today) to PC?

You don't

PC needs the market to move. Whether its a recession, or the euro, or a downgrade in scores. Most of those situations aren't going to be good for the guy who's waiting on the wine.

Or maybe they have extraordinary returns on the float, perhaps specing in the auction market or something. Their core competency is the illiquid market in fine wines, but perhaps things like wine-searcher.com have eroded that edge over the last ten years.

Even if something is a ten buck bottle I still check that site, and I think that's had a harsh effect on retailers globally.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Arv, mine is just an academic point about pricing. It has nothing to do with how PC sources their wines. I understand fully (if our assumptions about their business model are correct) how they operate, that they expect to buy the wines at some future date at a discount to the current market and, more importantly I think, a substantial discount to the price at which the offer to sell today on a prearrival basis. My question is very simple. How do they decide at what price they will offer the wine today? Do they think, "hmm, I don't know when, or even if, I will be able to source this wine, or at what price. But K&L is offering it at $89. Hmm, I guess I'll offer it at $69 and see what happens."

Is that about it?
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AKR »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:Arv, mine is just an academic point about pricing. It has nothing to do with how PC sources their wines. I understand fully (if our assumptions about their business model are correct) how they operate, that they expect to buy the wines at some future date at a discount to the current market and, more importantly I think, a substantial discount to the price at which the offer to sell today on a prearrival basis. My question is very simple. How do they decide at what price they will offer the wine today? Do they think, "hmm, I don't know when, or even if, I will be able to source this wine, or at what price. But K&L is offering it at $89. Hmm, I guess I'll offer it at $69 and see what happens."

Is that about it?
Probably. I think when enterprises are desperate for money they don't worry about the interest rate.

And here the discount they are offering is effectively an interest rate.
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Michael-P
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Michael-P »

Finally got an email from someone supposedly senior that said "August".
They also recognized that I have not been buying as much as I used to and that they were trying to change their futures program to shorten the wait time. Let's see.
Guess I am waiting. At least till August.

Michael-P
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JimHow
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by JimHow »

Why August?
Why not next week?
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DavidG
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by DavidG »

It takes time to make convincing counterfeits of top 2009 Bordeaux, especially mags. :o
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Outlier »

I don't post here so often, but this is a matter close to my heart (or wallet, at least ;-)). At the risk of sharing too much information, I'm owed about $65k in wine by PC at this time - 529 bottles, about 70% of which are Bordeaux. I started buying in July, 2012 jumping in on some '10 Bordeaux deals. Just for fun (if that is the right word) I grabbed my PC purchase history from the site and threw it into Excel to get some specifics. I've purchased 734 bottles, 211 of which I've picked up, 62 are ready to pick up and 461 are not yet available. Note, the not-yet-available numbers here are a bit less worrying/more-benign than they seem in that they include some '10 Brunellos and some Bordeaux from '11 vintage or later which I don't expect to have come in yet. Still, my concern relates to a lot of '09 and '10 I'm waiting on (about 55 bottles of '09 and 130 bottles of '10 that remain in limbo delivery status, after I swing by the store to pick up the 62 they have waiting for me this week).

From the '10 vintage I've received or have waiting for me the likes of Rauzan Segla, Montrose, Troplong Mondot (Some in magnum, as well as 750ml), Smith Haut Lafitte, Leoville Poyferre, Gazin, La Fleur de Gay (Magnum), Malescot St. Exupery, d'Issan, Domaine de Chevalier (magnum), Clos Fourtet, Canon, Les Asteries, Haut Bailly and quite a few more - overall, encouraging, but....

am still waiting on from '10 vintage: 3L of Cheval Blank (yikes), magnum of Lafite (yikes), 3 Magnums of Beausejour Duffau, Ducru Beaucaillou, Angelus, Cos, Forts de Latour, Carrudes de Lafite, Pavion Rouge, LLC, Conseillante, Clinet...and many many others.

From '09, I've received or have waiting for me the likes of Ducru Beaucalliou, Bellevue Mondot, La Mondotte, Beausejour Duffau, Pavie, but...

am still waiting for Lynch Bages, l'Eglise Clinet, Montrose, Pontet Canet, Cos, Clos Fourtet, Pichon Baron, LLC, Malescot St. Exupery (magnum)....

Am definitely concerned about the wait time. I'd probably be in the fanboy camp, though 1) am realizing that my exposure has now grown so high and 2) I just recklessly caved in and pulled the trigger on some recent unlikely deals such as magnums of '89 Haut Brion, '96 Latour, '00 Mouton and '86 Mouton - I just couldn't help myself. If PC goes under I'll need therapy. Note, I'm not rich, I'm just obsessed with Bordeaux, though she is a harsh mistress :-)

I'll likely dial back my purchases, if my discipline will manifest itself. Yet, as someone else noted, if PC would manage to deliver wine sooner, it would go a long way to allaying any fears I have and I'd be buying more wine from them including the '14 futures which look like lovely deals, but jeez, would I have possession of them even by 2020? Probably not if 2010 vintage experience is anything to go by.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by stefan »

Outlier, you almost convinced me that I am not spending enough at PC. :)
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by DavidG »

I hear you Outlier. I've stopped buying pre-arrivals from PC because of the long delays. I don't blame you for being concerned given the size of your commitment. At the same time, it may be reassuring to you to know that I waited 6 years for some of my top 2005 Bordeaux, receiving the last of them in 2014. The wait included the financial spasms of 2008, which PC survived. So I think the odds are really excellent that you'll get everything, or nearly everything with a reasonable trade for a few bottles that might not show.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

"Outlier." You have chosen an appropriate screen name. Well, maybe not. I'm probably the outlier here - at the other end of course.
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Re: Wine lawyer to chase en primeur orders?

Post by Blanquito »

I second what David said. I never had your exposure Outlier, but I went very long on 2005 Bordeaux from PC and I was getting pretty nervous. Most were finally delivered in 2010, after I agree to swap half-bottle orders for full bottles of the same wine (with a 30% increasing in total volume of wine for my troubles).

At this point, I have a very low amount of outstanding from PC. This is mainly because my cellar is full, so I'm not buying much from anywhere. I do older vintages still, but auction is the best route for those I think.
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