President Trump

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:23 pm

If there's a surge in Idaho license plates in Cleveland just before the convention you know it's "game on."

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:39 pm

If not Trump, then who? Suddenly Trump's polls have dropped and Cruz is up, but there's no way Cruz can win outright. So, who wins a contested convention?

Kasich? Romney? Paul Ryan?

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:13 pm

One prediction at a time. I am not the answer grape!

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:19 pm

What a fascinating process...I suspect Trump might be looking for an out...he has made more than a splash...could Bloomberg be a viable GOP candidate...he seems far too Liberal?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:35 pm

Now shots fired in the Capitol. I really think there is some violence coming. I fear assassination attempts.
I think the deadlines for third party candidacies are just about to expire. They can't get the necessary signatures in time.
It is either going to be The Donald as the nominee, or some sort of Cruz-Kasich ticket.
I would still put my money on the Big Man getting it.
If the GOP were ever to disenfranchise all those millions of Trump supporters with back room politics, there would be some very serious hell to pay.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:17 pm

You sound like Harry Dent. He only rents a house in Florida but he owns one "in the Caribbean" where he expects to hunker down when, imminently btw, civil insurrection sweeps this country. Well, good luck fending off those machete-wielding "police officers" in the "Caribbean" when all hell breaks loose here.

This talk of wager whets my appetite. You of course are a savvy political apparatchik so I should get decent odds. Your '89 Lynch to my ???

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:20 pm

By the way, I think Kasich is the most overrated politician out there today. The guy is as right wing as they come, don't be fooled by the aw-shucks, golly-gee spiel.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:43 am

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:One prediction at a time. I am not the answer grape!

We could use a segment like that, Ask The Answer Grape.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:51 am

California is pretty much all-important for Trump's chances of getting the nomination outright. There was a reputable poll yesterday that had Trump with only a 1 pt lead. California’s primary is a winner-take-all system by Congressional District, so a lead overall actually matters since its predictive of how well one does across congressional districts. Bottomline: if Trump only squeaks out a win in CA, he can't get the nomination outright (he needs something like 2/3rds of CA's delegates according to the predictions on 538).

Personally, I'd take a bet that if Trump is more than 100 delegates short of an outright win, the "nomination" goes to someone else.

The question then is if it is too late then for Trump to run on the ticket of another party (one that's done all its paperwork and so is on the ballot in all 50 states).

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:20 am

No way, that would ensure a Ryan presidency in the House.
If I'm a Repiblican, it's Trump or bust, Trump good or bad.
Heck, as a liberal Dem who would never vote for Trump in a million years, I'd be offended if this were stolen from him. Hey, the guy has earned it, any way you look at it! He started at 3% in the polls, he tapped into the worst instincts of that nasty party, and he has emerged as the leader. And now these frauds who have done nothing to stop him want to take it away in s back room deal. Go Trump, I say! He's won it fair and square. You reap what you sow, Republican frauds.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:42 am

Paul Ryan could lose the Republican nomination in a brokered convention, yet win the presidency in the House of Representatives. This is so amazing.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:49 am

I agree completely, Jim. But this is the Republican party apparatus here, who stole the 2000 election and used all sorts of voter suppression tactics for decades. If even a patina of fairness gives them a way out, I'll think they'll take it.

The question is if they get the chance (my money is now on that happening) and what happens if they take it (riots, 3rd party run, etc).

But Trump might not really want this. Maybe he figures he has no chance winning the general, so he lets himself get pushed out now so he can say "I told you so" when Cruz gets trounced in November.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:13 am

You may very well be right! Trump is such a strange dude. I mean, I know he's a cheap bastard, but he can't throw a couple mil into Wisconsin, which really does seem to be a turning point? And, I mean, NOBODY in the Trump camp -- his children, Guilliani, etc. -- nobody -- can convince him to not post nasty pictures of Ted Cruz's wife? This is insanity!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Apr 07, 2016 11:23 pm

Why am I finding myself sympathizing with Donsld Trump, a man I would never vote for in 8 trillion years?
Because he is having a nomination stolen from him by back room operatives who are not for a minute better than him..
The true nature of the nominating process... on both the Dem and GOP side... absolutely fascinating, a real education.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:22 pm

I hear you Jim. Being "better than" Trump is a pretty low bar, though I wonder if you are talking competence or morals here. Those back room operatives may have no morals but if they are successful in denying him the nomination, you gotta give them credit for effectiveness. Politics is a dirty game. You know this. Legal and illegal dirty tricks abound. I guess being able to navigate that morass successfully is supposed to be some indication of one's ability to lead in a complex and unfair world full of liars and cheaters. The process is close to disgusting.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is playing his Trump card by earning some disdain from the Vatican. After he claimed an invitation for a personal conference with the Pope, a senior Vatican spokesman accused him of "monumental discourtesy" by bullying his way into a conference on moral conduct. The media giving him a do-over on his incoherent "I don't know" responses to how he would accomplish his goals is further evidence that they are just after ratings. And then there are Bernie's Sandernista operatives who have tried to manipulate primaries with Republican-style dirty tricks. He's really showing his stripes as a conniving, empty, bullying windbag who's even more facile with the truth than Hillary.

They whole lot of them are distinctly unappealing. But if it's Trump vs. Sanders, I may be asking Danny about retirement options in Canada.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:26 pm

Bernie is not covering himself with any glory these days. A shame and odd since the arithmetic shows he has no real shot of winning the nomination short of a complete Hillary collapse.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Apr 09, 2016 11:03 pm

Hillary's got the cure. Guaranteed to relieve your irritation:

: image.jpeg (100.66 KiB) Viewed 2804 times

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Apr 09, 2016 11:42 pm

Bernie has won 8 of the last 9 primaries/caucuses, and he can still win every single remaining state, and he won't win the nomination.
Trump has won by far the most votes, the most delegates, and he can win most of the remaining states, and he won't win the nomination.
Is this country screwed up or what.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:57 am

An interesting analysis:

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-donald-t ... convention

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:18 am

I dont buy Sanders' no fair complaint for a minute. I thought I kind of liked Sanders until I got to know him.

Bernie is not a Democrat, has never lifted a finger to help them, and has instead opposed and attacked them. Why would he think that the Democratic party officials and office holders who make up the super delegates would vote for him?

He is now whining like a crybaby/sore loser that the Democrats wont change the rules to benefit him. He wants a rule change in the interest of Bernie Sanders, not in the interest of fairness or the voters or the country. He knew (or should have known) the rules when he entered the game. I don’t know if he even cared to learn them. He's a cranky old fart who cares only about himself. An embarrassing elderly version of the schoolyard whiner crying "I'm losing! No fair! Change the rules!"

And don't get me started on his dishonesty. Or his actual policies. He's as unqualified as Trump.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:20 am

Would be nice to embed these here but I don't think we have the capability. http://www.lexisnexis.com/en-us/product ... acker.page

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:28 am

Wow that's some good stuff. I wish I had more computer skills.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:53 am

Very cool graphics. The media loves Donald. He gets attention and ratings, so they flock to him like moths to a light. It really shows in those first graphics.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:53 am

No surprise but definitely says something that Trump gets almost three times the all-source coverage of all the other candidates combined, and runner-up Bernie gets more coverage than Hill, Cruz and Kasich combined. I maintain my prediction and raise: Trump will not be the GOP nominee (nor, what's more important. president) and the country will not elect a socialist president this cycle.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 2:10 am

I think Trump's media coverage has been a progression: first the hipster cynical "can you believe this?", then a more straight-shooter "Can you believe this?", culminating with a 1980 US hockey at the Olympics sportscaster's "CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS???!!!"

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Apr 13, 2016 2:32 am

I never would have believed Trump would get this far. Shows how much I know. I do think the Republicans will prevent him from gaining the nomination and extending his hijacking of the party. But I'm far from certain.

On the Dem side, Bernie's fantasy world will soon start to crumble.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:22 am

So Jim after Trump's showing in NY what odds are you giving that the Republican establishment will take the nomination away from him? I'm starting to think Trump might actually be their nominee.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:27 am

Apparently, trump's chances of getting enough delegates to win the nomination outright probably all come down to Indiana:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/up ... itics.com/

I'd still take the field over Trump getting the nomination, even money.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:29 am

I think Trump's got it.
To give it to someone else would be to disenfranchise millions and would create complete chaos, and probably violence.
I'd like to know what the deadlines are to get on ballots as an independent.
It seems to me Trump's biggest card is that, if the nomination is stolen from him, he can bolt and become Ross Perot and hand the election to Hillary. The Republicans have to know that Trump would fight the party in November if the nomination were stolen from him.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:47 am

Last summer when you started this thread I thought Trump's candidacy was a joke. Good for entertainment value but certain to crash and burn. Yet he carried on despite multiple spectacular gaffes that would kill any mortal candidate's chances. It shows how much can change.

And there are still >6 months until the general election. Who knows what could happen in that time? It's hard for me to believe that such a buffoon could actually end up in the White House, but his populist appeal is out-Tefloning the original. Plus there are tons of anti-Hillary munitions just waiting to be released and plenty of people eager to believe them.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:10 am

Wouldn't a Hillary presidency be preferable for the GOP 'establishment' than a Trump presidency given the damage it would do to the party, given that it could actually kill the party. In other words write off 2016 and focus on 2020? Or focus on the Congressional elections?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:28 am

We underrate Trump at our own peril. As he says himself, he hasn't even begun to go after Hillary yet. Ask Jeb, Walker, Marco, Carly, etc., etc., how that feels. As bat shit as he is, there's a side of Trump that is very appealing. He's like your loud mouthed conservative Archie Bunker type uncle at the Thanksgiving table. He can drive you crazy but in the end you're still fond of him. I watched three of his kids last night, the two boys and the younger daughter. Very charming. Very normal. They love their dad. And the feeling they exude is that you, America, will love him like we do when you really get to know him. One of the themes you're going to really see coming in the weeks ahead is how the good old boys behind closed doors are trying to steal the election from the guy for whom millions have voted. "Think of all those people in Arizona who waited three, four hours in line to vote," one of the boys said. "Can you imagine they want to take their votes away from them?" This is going to be a very powerful message in the weeks ahead.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:38 pm

But what happens when Trump falls just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to get nominated cleanly? That's what I think will happen based on all the analysis out there. Cruz and Kasich certainly won't go quietly, not if they have a chance. Sounds like chaos coming. Can Trump get the nomination in a contested convention? Hard to imagine unless he's just short of 1,237.

I'm with David though. A nutty as political parties can be, I never thought Trump (nor Bernie, the cranky grandfather to Jim's cranky uncle) would have any staying power, let alone be leading in late April. Bernie is finished, at least, but he did surprise us again and again.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:44 pm

Trump still has time to run as an independent or 3rd party candidate:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 29032.html

The key highlight:
"The bulk of states have an August or September deadline, with various signature requirements or filing fines. There is also the possibility of a third-party bid, which could save the business mogul some time and money, as several of those parties have spots on various state ballots."

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:45 pm

I think we have to put ourselves ahead in time. In a couple weeks, Trump is going to have swept Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, etc. That will give him even more momentum going into Indiana and the western states. He may or may not win Indiana, Washington, Oregon, etc., but he's going to win California and New Jersey. And there's going to be a continued sense of inevitability about his campaign. A month and a half is an eternity in politics. Plus, he seems to be tightening up his appearances: Note the references to "Senator Cruz" last night rather than "Lyin' Ted."

I think this race is over. There's no mathematical way Ted is going to get the delegates. Convention shenanigans would be like something out of a bad movie. It's just not realistic. Frankly, this is happening exactly the way Trump predicted a month or so ago: Lying Ted can't win these big northeastern states, California, etc. Incredibly, Donald J. Trump is your next nominee of the once proud party of Lincoln.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:45 pm

A third party threat is where The Donald, in the end, has the GOP by the balls.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:03 pm

JimHow wrote:A third party threat is where The Donald, in the end, has the GOP by the balls.

That could be the ace up his sleeve. If he almost gets the nomination outright, why piss off a huge part of the party by taking the nomination away from him when he can then just destroy their chances in November? Then Ian's logic comes into play, as the GOP leadership focuses on the down ballot races and let's Trump have his day while basically sitting on the sidelines. After the presumed romp by Hillary in the general, the party can have another Goldwater regroup and do what it does best- play defense, and focus on destroying the credibility and agenda of the Hillary White House...

We have no clear idea what will happen on the GOP side still, amazing given that it is mid-April. I'd still bet a bottle of the 89 Lynch Bages that someone from the field comes out of Cleveland with the nomination, but nothing would shock me at this point (Romney sounds hungry).

So it is Hillary v ??? Betting markets have Hillary at 74% to win the White House and become the next President after last night's results.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:51 pm

Donald Trump has 845 delegates after last night, leaving him 392 short of an outright win. There are 734 delegates remaining, meaning he needs to win 53.4% of the remaining delegates.

Doesn't sound that hard, does it? But the Donald has only cleared 50% of the vote in a few states so far. At the same time, delegate allocation rules have given more than 50% of the delegates in a number of states, despite winning around 40-45% of the votes cast so far. It's gonna be close!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:57 pm

Keep an eye on Pennsylvania:

"In Pennsylvania, where Trump leads comfortably in recent polls, the winner takes 17 delegates. But Pennsylvanians also elect 54 “unbound” delegates who can vote for whomever they want in Cleveland. And the Cruz campaign is working hard to elect Cruz-friendly delegates...

Henry said it's “very possible” that the Keystone State's 54 unbound delegates determine whether Trump clinches the 1,237 delegates on the first ballot. “We're going to have one of the largest uncommitted delegations.”"