President Trump

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:39 pm

Can they go back to court with evidence that the DMV is not issuing IDs and get a reversal?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:49 pm

I think we are going to be dealing with a "provisional ballot" fiasco.
Can you imagine if this goes to the US Supreme Court and it's a 4-4 tie?
It would be like a bad novel.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:17 pm

I don't know if any of you guys read the WSJ, but their editor denounced Trump yesterday in a long op ed.

I can not tell if its their formal (non) endorsement or not, or if its just the editor/publisher speaking on her own, but it was remarkable.

Generally I think of the NYT/WSJ as the official mouthpieces for the center left/center right of American political thought, and for the Journal to spit up a cup of bile on the toupeed champion of the 1% is unusual.

Its from Dorothy something. Not Peggy Noonan, who has fallen out with the hard right because over a variety of issues.

====

I was reading some website which had some potential way that both Trump and Clinton could lose, which would be the most delightful situation of all. Both would have to go through life with that failure on their permanent record. Basically Libertarians would have to win some states, neither the Coke nor Pepsi parties could get to 270, and then the House would have to assemble a unity ticket of John Roberts and Bernie.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:16 pm

Yes Dorothy Rabinowitz but that was not the formal editorial board position.
I love the WSJ but when the editorial board goes for Clinton I will believe it when I see it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:00 pm

Donald Trump in Manheim, PA last night.
This is some scary shit, man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qV_lJX76bg

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:45 am

Blatant voter suppression in Wisconsin:

http://www.msnbc.com/am-joy/watch/voter ... 7650755772

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:14 am

I think the electoral map calculus is getting very dicey, with Nevada leaning towards Trump and New Mexico very close due to the fact that Johnson is polling well there. Plus, there's that cursed one vote here in the second district in Maine. It looks like it may all come down to… surprise… Florida. Her lead there is razor thin. Trump can't win without Florida. If she wins Florida, she can lose PA, NM, and NV, and still win. If he wins FL, there's a realistic path to victory for him.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:49 am

Florida, the hanging chad state. Lovely.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:33 pm

A friend introduced me to this insightful review by Michiko Kakutani of a new biography by Volker Ullrich: Hitler. Ascent 1889-1939. The review speaks only of the book and Hitler's rise to power, but the parallels to Trump's candidacy are blatantly apparent and very scary.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/books ... .html?_r=0

I've been feeling this for months. To see the similarities between Hitler and Trump so clearly laid out in print (even though Trump isn't mentioned) is terrifying.

We have the benefit of a more robust free press to oppose this evil. Will they do their job? It looks like they are finally beginning to shine a light on Trump's evil without making up excuses or manufacturing false comparisons making Trump seem no worse than Clinton.

If we are to learn anything from the history of Nazi Germany, it is that we must not stand by silently or make excuses for evil. We must oppose evil at our earliest opportunity, and with vigor, before it grows more powerful. We can't look the other way or brush it off as unimportant because it doesn't affect us directly. If you don't stand up when they come for the Muslims, or the Mexicans, or the gays, or the blacks, or the women, who will be left to stand up when they come for you?

Trump is the American Hitler.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:01 pm

David,

I saw that same review and had the same thoughts as I was reading it. Certainly some parallels can be drawn, but I am confident (hopeful) that our system is resilient enough to avoid going down a similar path.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:31 pm

Where are all the post-debate polls? The media, needless to say, is pitiful. Including the NYT.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:55 pm

JimHow wrote:Where are all the post-debate polls? The media, needless to say, is pitiful. Including the NYT.

Joe Scarborough was complaining about the same thing this morning.
I've seen polls released since the debate that show Clinton winning the debate by a big margin, including Fox that showed a 40 point spread.
There were also a few polls showing a small bump for Hillary, but nothing since the latest rants by Trump.

I thought Newt had the best advice for Trump - no tweeting at 3am, period.

Anyone watch the entire SNL opening skit? (not just the news clips)
I don't like Alec Baldwin a whole lot but he did a great job of parodying Trump.
And Kate McKinnon did a great HRC parody as usual.
However, the best was Michael Che's Lester Holt IMO.
Definitely looking forward to more in the next few weeks.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:01 pm

DavidG wrote:...
We have the benefit of a more robust free press to oppose this evil. Will they do their job? It looks like they are finally beginning to shine a light on Trump's evil without making up excuses or manufacturing false comparisons making Trump seem no worse than Clinton.
...

It looks like the press is finally going to give Trump the free coverage he deserves rather than the free coverage he expects.
Unprecedented endorsements for HRC from conservative papers, and some strong anti-endorsements for Trump.
Even conservative think tanks are coming out with anti-endorsements for the republican nominee.

On the Sunday AM political shows there was a lot of push-back from the moderators against unreasonable statements by Trump surrogates.
Way more coverage of the negatives Trump self-created last week than in past news cycles.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:31 pm

Another Republican defector -
Whitewater prosecutor who investigated Clinton endorses her for president

jal · Post by **jal** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:30 pm

David, I am not too worried, yes there are similarities in the two sociopaths personalities but..
This from the article in the Times:
• Hitler, it became obvious, could not be tamed — he needed only five months to consolidate absolute power after becoming chancellor. “Non-National Socialist German states” were brought into line, Mr. Ullrich writes, “with pressure from the party grass roots combining effectively with pseudo-legal measures ordered by the Reich government.” Many Germans jumped on the Nazi bandwagon not out of political conviction but in hopes of improving their career opportunities, he argues, while fear kept others from speaking out against the persecution of the Jews. The independent press was banned or suppressed and books deemed “un-German” were burned. By March 1933, Hitler had made it clear, Mr. Ullrich says, “that his government was going to do away with all norms of separation of powers and the rule of law.
I would imagine the above to be impossible to achieve in the US or in any normal democracy.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:23 pm

Trump can't even control Twitter...I don't think he would be capable of anything coherently evil.

If he did win, what would be more likely would be a bizarre Castro like White House, where DJT would ramble on for 4 hour long speeches, with no policy direction or impact, while Evil Minion #1 (Kevin) Christie arranged for a national air traffic jam, and other insanity.

Rosie O'Donnel would go into hiding immediately, only releasing video blogs to her followers, through a circuitous route of cutouts and drop boxes.

Here she exhorts the Anti Trumpistas to stand fat with the resistance.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:06 pm

Yes but the great civilizations haven't always had a Kristallnacht, often liberty and democracy has declined slowly, like what we are seeing with global warming, you know, the bumble bees disappearing here, too many mosquitoes there, etc., etc, before you know it we are Venus or Mars. For me it really started to crystallize back on 2000, when the Florida young Republicans were beating down the doors at the election clerk's office. Trump is the end-product of that little exercise. I shudder at what will happen if he challenges the results of a "rigged" election, with "you know what" happening out there in certain parts of Pennsylvania.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:48 pm

I think no matter what happens the fanatics on either losing sides will believe it was a rigged election, stolen from them by the corrupt elites.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:04 pm

True.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:22 pm

Just look at what Bernie's supporters pass around Facebook. If you take the time to follow the links the "100% proof" that Bernie won unravels completely into nothingness but it takes time to get it all unwound.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:58 pm

Trump seems to be pretty clearly winning Ohio.
This creates an immediate urgency to the campaign.
This is no profound news, of course.
Ohio is almost always the bellwether.
The Democrats have gained some demographic advantages.
But in the end, when you put Ohio on the Republican's column, more often than not that creates electoral mischief.
Trump still needs to win Florida, yada, yada, yada.
But if you put Ohio solidly in his column, that creates a not-so-crazy scenario where he can win.
I'm terrified by what I'm seeing in PA.
Yes Clinton has gained a little bounce post-debate.
But there's more than a month left.
An eternity.
One month out, this race is nip and tuck, could go either way.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:32 am

Megyn Kelly mocking the Manheim, Pennsylvania speech...
I'm telling you, that was a turning point speech. That was some crazy shit, yo.
I like Megyn Kelly.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:40 am

Let's see...

Donald Trump in Manheim, Pennsylvania, October 2016.
John F. Kennedy, American University, June 1963...

Hmm. A tough call.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:53 am

I'm telling you, "The Manheim Speech" (god, it sounds so GERMAN, doesn't it??), will go down in history.
It is the moment for me when I truly came to the conclusion that Donald Trump is certifiably insane.
I mean, not just mentally ill, which has been obvious for decades...
I'm talking... certifiable.
Am I talking hallucinatory, taking to God, seeing the Virgin Mary in the water stain on the wall crazy?
No, of course not.
But I truly believe this guy has reached a state of mania, like say a Mussolini or, gulp, yes, a Hitler.
He has that jutted jaw trait of Benito/Adolf/Saddam/Uncle Joe.
He is not hallucinating but he is clearly suffering from severe mania, anger, insomnia, and a MASSIVE dose of narcissistic personality disorder.
He may be bipolar as well, and moderately depressed.
But clearly narcissistic.
I've been practicing law for over 30 years.
I'm not a shrink.
But the most persistent disorder I observe in my clients is narcissism. A lack of judgment of one's own self worth, an inability to process one's place in the world. A complete lack of judgment, leading to irrational behavior in varying degrees.
Often relating back to childhood trauma.
This guy has the obvious symptoms, in very elevated ranges.
He's a madman. Not the crazy guy you might see talking to himself on the street.
But he is nonetheless extremely unbalanced, unstable... and extremely close to the presidency of the United States.
In fact, I'm predicting it right now. I'm calling it: Donald Trump will be our next president.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:49 am

Interesting, JimHow. I think my initial description of this individual late last year was "narcissitic personality disorder." In my early professional career, I was actually in the mental health arena dealing with adolescents who were "pre-Donalds." I was quite familiar with the the DSM descriptors for these diagnoses, and he fits the "narcisist" diagnosis almost 100%.

I'm noticing that the press, just in the last week, has really gone on the offensive against this guy, so I'm hopeful that common sense will triumph on election day. However, I'm also aware that the majority of his supporters will not be reading those articles.

Should he actually prevail in the election, I think we will be looking at the most interesting 4 years in our country's history since the revolution.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:55 am

Yes Jon the press is really going after him.
I'll be curious to see if the WSJ ends up doing the right thing. I predict they won't. I predict Peggy Noonan, the most pious reporter in America, won't go against Trump.
No balls.
The reason why I'm picking Trump is that, despite perhaps the worst week in modern electoral history, he is still in a dead heat with her. This following a devastating ten day stretch after the conventions.

He is a strong ten day stretch away from the presidency.

Watch the numbers in PA and FL.

Heaven help us.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:05 am

Jim,

I'm with you regarding the concerns. The fact that we are even talking about the prospect of his winning is "scary," lacking for other words. The closest situation in my lifetime that I can recall to this election was the 1964 election between Johnson and Goldwater. But that was actually less dangerous in my mind than this. Although my political philosophy was totally different than Goldwater, I don't think he suffered from a serious personality disorder (unlike the current candidate).

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:12 am

My brothers and I still own my parent's property in Iowa. Since my vote in Illinois will not affect the presidential election, perhaps I should change my registration to Iowa.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:24 am

I remember when the Red Sox came back against the Yankees in 2004. The Sox were down 3 games to none. The chances of winning were like literally nearly zero. But the Sox kept hanging around. They won one game. Then two. I was at Yankee Stadium for the next two epic games. I remember texting to my brothers: "You know, the Sox are a three run homer away from winning game 6, then anything is possible in Game 7." Sure enough, Mark Bellhorn hit a three run homer that landed about 15 rows in front of me in the "bloody sock" game, the Sox went on to win the series, and the rest is history.

That's the way I feel about the Trump candidacy. Miraculously, he has stuck around for the past year and a half. He's going to win Ohio. And if he has a good ten day stretch, he could win Florida and pull this thing out.

In fact, I am now predicting that is what is going to happen.

I am predicting Donald Trump will win OH, FL, and one or two other key states, and will be the next President of the United States.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 5:05 am

Well, Jim, it may not come to that at all. Reportedly Assange is going to bring down Clinton at 3 am Eastern Daylight Time with an October surprise, delivered in Berlin. Interesting place for that, given your recent analysis. Anyway, that's only 9 pm Hawaiian time so I'll be on the lookout and will post here if I'm able to understand the import of the announcement. I assume this would take down not just Clinton but the entire Democratic party, rendering your reasoned paths to a Trump victory largely academic, since he would then win a landslide by default. We'll know in less than two hours now.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:13 am

Clinton with comfortable leads in a recent spate of swing polls released today.

Donald Trump will not be elected. He will lose, be it by 2-3 points nationally, or if things really collapse for him (as they appear to be verging on), 8-10 points. He might win Ohio even then, but he will lose the election. Hillary can lose nearly every swing state including Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and that one electoral vote in that distinct in Maine, and she would still win. With just over a month to go, she has big leads in Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire, and decent leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It seems close now, just like it did in 2004, 2008, and 2012 (and 2000, which really was close of course) and the prospects of a Trump White House are terrifying, but none of those other 3 elections were really that close in the end. I guess Kerry made is pretty close in 2004, but when it's all said and done, Hillary will win. Detailed, careful analyses of the data show that a 3-4 deficit in the first week in October is a very big hole for Trump to climb out of. He could do it of course, but all the headwinds are against him, and now is when the flirtation with the 3rd party candidates begins to really fade. A tight election will encourage turnout which will help Hillary and Trump's complete lack of a ground game will hurt him if the results are close.

I used to worry about elections and sweat every twist and turn (remember when Kerry had the lead late in the game?, when McCain surged in front in early September?, when Romney drew it to a tie after the first debate?), but the basic contours of the race are usually clear by mid summer, and a dispassionate analysis can call the winner correctly most of the time by the end of August (if not sooner). Elections like 2000 are quite rare in the final analysis, and the rest is just noise created by a closely divided nation, media hype, and the basic limitations of polling methodology. Bottomline: Trump has never held a lead in an average of national polls (he briefly was tied with Hillary after the Republican Convention), and even at his high water marks, Hillary remained the favorite with a fire wall of 272+ electoral votes that Trump cannot crack.

When it's all said and done, I predict she will collect >300 electoral votes and become the first female president of the United States.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:40 am

Jim, Trump's narcissistic personality has been on display for years. I too began wondering this past week if he is also bipolar.

Jacques, I agree with you that Trump would not be able to consolidate power once in office the way that Hitler did. But the parallels leading up to the election have me extremely concerned that Jim's prediction of a Trump win will prove true. And even if Trump can't amass dictatorial powers, he can do a world of damage.

I hope Jim and I are just a bit hysterical, and Patrick's reasoned analysis will prove correct. But I remain as scared now as I was during the Cuban missile crisis.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:13 am

Some confusion about the time. Now it looks like 10 am Germany, 4 am Eastern and 10 pm Hawaiian. Not sure if I can wait long. Pretty typical.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:23 am

While waiting, this is interesting http://www.infowars.com/watch-alex-jones-show/

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:36 am

I understand things now. "They" are going to tank everything (the economy, world peace, etc.) after the election if Trump wins in an effort to de-legitimize him. The guy has it in for Brit Hume.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:40 am

Ah, I understand. Fox News is in on the conspiracy now. They have rolled for Hillary and her globalist backers. That's interesting, but it does fit the theory that the mainstream media is completely corrupt. I guess if Fox wasn't in on it then the MSM couldn't be completely corrupt. Makes sense.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:05 am

Assange video not until 10:40. Sigh. Another 35 minutes to go.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:36 am

Geez I was expecting to awaken to some fireworks and there's nothing, no mention of Assange.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:51 pm

JimHow wrote:Geez I was expecting to awaken to some fireworks and there's nothing, no mention of Assange.

Yeah, he says he wants to wait until closer to the election so the bombshell will have greater effect.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:20 pm

Clinton +6 nationally in a NBC poll today (4 way race)
Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in a Franklin and Marshall poll today