President Trump

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Racer Chris
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

AKR wrote:PS: I don't think young people should be voting for either HRC or DJT. Both basically are unwilling to reform Social Security or Medicare, which are effectively gigantic generational wealth transfer schemes from the young/poor/working to the old/better off/retired. Obamacare effectively compounds that, and one can see from its semi voluntary nature (a modest penalty if non compliant), that young people can actually choose their own interests if its obvious to them.
HRC said in the third debate that she intends to raise the cap on withholding. I think that alone can move solvency ahead more than 20 years.
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stefan
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Re: President Trump

Post by stefan »

>>
Social Security or Medicare, which are effectively gigantic generational wealth transfer schemes from the young/poor/working to the old/better off/retired.
>>

I beg to differ with you there, Arv, at least as regards Medicare for the old/better off. Lucie and I are in our 70s and do not get a penny from Medicare because I am still working and have insurance through my employer. I now pay Medicare taxes and will continue after I retire because of Obama taxes. When I retire, our health costs will probably quadruple. I will have post retirement health care insurance from my employer but must purchase Lucie's. This is secondary to Medicare B and D, and our premiums for those will be more than double the base amounts. All of this is paid with after tax dollars. Moreover, I will no longer be eligible for a health savings plan, so our out of pocket expenses will go up by $800-$900 because of income taxes on these expenses.

Now if I were really wealthy, I could do the tax avoidance that the rich Republicans like Trump and Romney practice, but I like to think that I would not.
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Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump

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stefan wrote:>>
Social Security or Medicare, which are effectively gigantic generational wealth transfer schemes from the young/poor/working to the old/better off/retired.
>>

I beg to differ with you there, Arv, at least as regards Medicare for the old/better off. Lucie and I are in our 70s and do not get a penny from Medicare because I am still working and have insurance through my employer. I now pay Medicare taxes and will continue after I retire because of Obama taxes. When I retire, our health costs will probably quadruple. I will have post retirement health care insurance from my employer but must purchase Lucie's. This is secondary to Medicare B and D, and our premiums for those will be more than double the base amounts. All of this is paid with after tax dollars. Moreover, I will no longer be eligible for a health savings plan, so our out of pocket expenses will go up by $800-$900 because of income taxes on these expenses.

Now if I were really wealthy, I could do the tax avoidance that the rich Republicans like Trump and Romney practice, but I like to think that I would not.
I agree to some of the nuances you mentioned, but overall I think the SS is a stupid decision the way it is. It is akin to a ponzi scheme in my opinion and as mentioned by Arv, it's a wealth transfer from the young to the old with blatant disregard to changes in demographics. Like a cherry on top, the older electorate have a say in the way SS is run currently while the younger or would be contributors in actuality are excluded. Talk about taxes without representation!!!

No wonder schemes like these contribute to the personal savings in this country going down the drain with conspicuous consumption becoming the way of life...
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Phil David
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Re: President Trump

Post by Phil David »

Has Giuliani always been this deranged? He seemed to strike a statesmanlike figure in the 9/11 aftermath but his current behaviour is bizarre. I wonder if he's up to his neck in dodgy deals with Trump while Mayor.
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Re: President Trump

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Welcome, Phil, Guilliani announced his candidacy for the Republican Party nomination for president 8 years ago. As a prerequisite you have to either be, or become, crazy.
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Re: President Trump

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Welcome, Phil, Guilliani announced his candidacy for the Republican Party nomination for president 8 years ago. It is a prerequisite in the bylaws that you have to either be, or become, crazy.
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AKR
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Re: President Trump

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stefan wrote:>>
Social Security or Medicare, which are effectively gigantic generational wealth transfer schemes from the young/poor/working to the old/better off/retired.
>>

I beg to differ with you there, Arv, at least as regards Medicare for the old/better off. Lucie and I are in our 70s and do not get a penny from Medicare because I am still working and have insurance through my employer. I now pay Medicare taxes and will continue after I retire because of Obama taxes. When I retire, our health costs will probably quadruple. I will have post retirement health care insurance from my employer but must purchase Lucie's. This is secondary to Medicare B and D, and our premiums for those will be more than double the base amounts. All of this is paid with after tax dollars. Moreover, I will no longer be eligible for a health savings plan, so our out of pocket expenses will go up by $800-$900 because of income taxes on these expenses.

Now if I were really wealthy, I could do the tax avoidance that the rich Republicans like Trump and Romney practice, but I like to think that I would not.
Everything you say can be true about your situation, but it doesn't reflect the aggregate numbers. There are always going to be individuals who are exceptions to the cohort one would normally categorize them into.

On the other side, there are many young people nowadays who are figuring out how to thoroughly game the student loan monstrosity, SNAP, parental emancipation, and so on. I suppose the internet and free flow of information has made it easier for all of them to figure out.

Overall it means our society misallocates our scarce resources: we send people to school who it will not benefit, we spend money on a healthcare system that doesn't improve life outcomes, and so forth. As such it's not a surprise that our economic growth is slowing to the levels of other sclerotic societies. We don't become Zimbabwe but the stunted economic growth of today's France/Italy isn't what built the nation.

Didn't see either of the two major parties candidates willing to do much about that either.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Conspicuous consumption is what built this country, at least I thought so. Or at least consumerism did, which frankly is much the same thing. Besides it's a little odd bemoaning such habits on a forum like BWE, where hardly a day goes by without someone posting they snagged a "bargain" bottle of $100+ dollar wine. Not that I think it's (the purchase or the posting) meant to be conspicuous but it is the same thing.
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Re: President Trump

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I hear what you say Hound, but I also think consumerism is a doble edged sword.

Yes, people buy expensive stuff depending on their purchasing power. But conspicuous consumption also includes unnecessary waste where it serves no one but only to the point of disgust. As an example, I used to work in a food court where when a customer comes 2 min before closing and the store had to open a fresh new pack of cold cut meat. Guess what? After couple of minutes, the rest of whole 5 pound pack was going in trash.... Buying expensive stuff and making good use is one thing but buying more than needed and throwing out of the door is a whole another thing...

But hey whom am I to tell others what to do? I can only practice stuff what's in my control...
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Re: President Trump

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ABC is starting its daily tracking poll today between now and the election.
Today's result: Clinton +12.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton- ... d=42993821

This is a yuuuge week for the polling.
Can Clinton maintain/expand her lead going into the final week?
Can Trump cut into it?
Gotta watch those swing state results closely.
I don't know if you've seen any of those people at the Trump rallies but there is raw anger out there, a little scary.
I want to see this piece of garbage go down hard.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Phil David »

Much has been made of the supposed white working class support for Trump, but I wondered if it's really such a big factor. There was a similar narrative around the Brexit vote but once you start digging you discover it's not really true: most of the affluent parts of England outside London voted for Brexit while many urban areas that contain significant pockets of deprivation voted remain.

This from Nate Silver seems to suggestive that Trump support isn't necessarily what makes for a good media angle:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... s-support/
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Re: President Trump

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Chateau Vin wrote: Like a cherry on top, the older electorate have a say in the way SS is run currently while the younger or would be contributors in actuality are excluded. Talk about taxes without representation!!!
Voting age is 18. Minimum age for the House is 25, Senate is 30, President and VP is 35. There may be a lack of representation among the younger demographic, but it's not excluded by statute.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

DavidG wrote:
Chateau Vin wrote:
........There may be a lack of representation among the younger demographic, but it's not excluded by statute.
That very much explains it. Not to mention the change in demographics even skewed more with significantly less say in the matter for the younger.
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Re: President Trump

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Social security isn't too hard to fix, as mentioned removing the tax cap would go much of the way to achieving long term solvency. And we are actually half way through the retirement pulse of baby boomers, I read recently, so things aren't going to get too much worse before they get better.

Medicare is the scary one. I read an interesting analysis not long ago about why health care is so much more expensive in the US than Europe, and it concluded that one of the biggest reasons is the difference in compensation paid to doctors here vs. there.
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Re: President Trump

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Raising the tax cap on FICA contribution coverage doesn't really solve the intergenerational inequity, and just postpones insolvency. And usually when society tries to tax the 'wealthy' for anything, they're able to simply transmogrify their income into something that is untaxed. All the states that have tried millionaire's taxes (I think NJ's kicks in at 250k or something) have had less of a tax haul than they'd hoped.

In the US the typical doctor earns about 5x the wage of typical skilled worker. Most other societies with universal or single payor style systems have set the balance at about 3x.
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Re: President Trump

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Tune in at 8pm EST on election eve, Monday, November 7th, for the traditional Jim How electoral college prediction.
An election day primer.
(Historically 100% accuracy.)
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Re: President Trump

Post by DavidG »

Blanquito wrote:Social security isn't too hard to fix, as mentioned removing the tax cap would go much of the way to achieving long term solvency. And we are actually half way through the retirement pulse of baby boomers, I read recently, so things aren't going to get too much worse before they get better.

Medicare is the scary one. I read an interesting analysis not long ago about why health care is so much more expensive in the US than Europe, and it concluded that one of the biggest reasons is the difference in compensation paid to doctors here vs. there.
Either that analysis or your memory is off the mark. If we paid doctors ZERO it would trim only about 8-9% from the Medicare budget. Inpatient and outpatient facility fees, pharmaceuticals and durable medical equipment are all much bigger tickets than MD professional fees. However, MDs control the spending in the other arenas. The most costly item in the healthcare budget is the physician's pen (or nowadays mouse).

That said, I agree that Medicare is much harder to make solvent for the foreseeable future than Social Security. The increases in healthcare spending were already starting to decrease (still increasing but at a slower rate) before PPACA took effect. Maybe in part due to the recession.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

Blanquito wrote: ........

Medicare is the scary one. I read an interesting analysis not long ago about why health care is so much more expensive in the US than Europe, and it concluded that one of the biggest reasons is the difference in compensation paid to doctors here vs. there.
Probably the docs on the forum can chime in, but I think compensation is a part of equation, but there are bunch of other stuff also... The cost of drugs in this country vis a vis Europe, cost of medical devices, tort reform and middlemen insurance companies ( although this is debated by many), etc.

My cardiologist uncle laments that he signs off on many near 90 yr old patients when they opt for surgeries that make no lifestyle improvement. They opt for them just because the surgeries are covered by medicare. Don't know the details but he says those coverages cost medicare a fortune...

Interestingly, CA has a prop on the ballot this november that requires the state to pay no more than what VA pays for the same drugs...
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Re: President Trump

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The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

#6: Theodore Roosevelt. Any president who is shot in the chest by a would-be assassin and, bleeding substantially, nonetheless went on to give a 90 minute speech because, hey, he wasn't coughing up blood, surely deserves top ten consideration. Teddy was a legendary hunter and outdoorsman before, during, and after his years as president. He served in the Spanish-American War as part of the "Rough Riders." After the war he was elected governor of New York. President William McKinley selected him as vice-president and when McKinley was assassinated, he took office as the youngest president ever (still to this day). He was an incredibly activist president, bringing the emerging United States into the new post-Victorian century. He took on trust busting and government corruption, and brought in heavy regulation of food and drugs. You read the ingredients on your food labels today because of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the greatest conservationist, protecting thousands of acres of pristine land and creating our national park system. In foreign affairs, he promised that America would "speak softly but carry a big stick." He was garrulous, loud, sometimes obnoxious, proud, but committed to helping those most in need in the growing country… perhaps the quintessential American, at least of the time. His expeditions to Africa and South America are stories of legend. He was a universal man. Richard Nixon pitifully hearkened to "TR" in his farewell speech to the White House staff before he resigned:

"Now, however, we look to the future. I had a little quote in the speech last night from T.R. [Theodore Roosevelt]. As you know, I kind of like to read books. I am not educated, but I do read books -- and the T.R. quote was a pretty good one. Here is another one I found as I was reading, my last night in the White House, and this quote is about a young man. He was a young lawyer in New York. He had married a beautiful girl, and they had a lovely daughter, and then suddenly she died, and this is what he wrote. This was in his diary.

He said, "She was beautiful in face and form and lovelier still in spirit. As a flower she grew and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine. There had never come to her a single great sorrow. None ever knew her who did not love and revere her for her bright and sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure and joyous as a maiden, loving, tender and happy as a young wife. When she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun and when the years seemed so bright before her, then by a strange and terrible fate death came to her. And when my heart's dearest died, the light went from my life forever."

That was T.R. in his twenties. He thought the light had gone from his life forever -- but he went on. And he not only became President but, as an ex-President, he served his country, always in the arena, tempestuous, strong, sometimes wrong, sometimes right, but he was a man."


"TR" came back to run for the presidency in 1912 after having been away for four years, as head of he "Bull Moose Party." He got 27% of the vote, compared to President Taft's 23%. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won in an electoral college landslide with 42%. It was a nasty campaign, with times having passed him and his message.

Theodore Roosevelt: A bruising, lusty Pauillac, Mouton at its best. The 6th greatest president from a country with many outstanding leaders. Grade: A.
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AKR
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Re: President Trump

Post by AKR »

Not many currently remind me of Teddy, but Jim Webb sort of has some vague resemblance.
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Re: President Trump

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AKR wrote:Not many currently remind me of Teddy, but Jim Webb sort of has some vague resemblance.
I was hopeful that Jim Webb would become a good presidential candidate for the Democratic party, but he looked uncomfortable and out of place on the primary debate stage.
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Re: President Trump

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By now you have all seen the CNN poll that has Clinton up by only 5 points nationally with two looong weeks to go in the election.
This after The Donald has weathered an assault in the past month like nothing ever even remotely witnessed in U.S. history.
And now he and his rabid supporters are on a vicious offensive as Clinton, la-di-da, saunters out with a speech every two or three days.
Despite the assault, he continues to be neck and neck in OH, FL, NC, and NV, and disturbingly close in PA.
Incredibly, the mainstream thinks this campaign is over. The mainstream is wrong. Oh how it is wrong.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AKR »

I don't think the party of Bernie and Elizabeth has much room under the tent for a Webb like guy.

====

WSJ op ed this afternoon from Sam Nunn, who is back from the dead. Journal resurrected him to pronounce that "we don't elect presidents, but anoint gods", given the POTUS control of atomic bombs which don't come with <ctl Z> functions. So voters are voting for the risk of accidental nuclear annihilation if they entrust this responsibility to the feckless bankrupter.

That was pretty awesome. He must have penned that well before Act III of the fiery Trumpian opera began.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

People wants to get it on, nuke-ways. They've seen enough apocalypse and living dead shows now to associate themselves with the survivors and the good times ahead surviving. Having a gun, a good woman by your side, some canned goods, an ATV and all the stuff you can forage for beats the hell out of living tongue by jowl with all this sissy, pc, global elitist types.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Imagine having an affliction where one needs a bottle of claret a day to survive. Now we head up to Maine because we saw on some cached snapshots about this "BWE" thing that some guy named Jim in Maine had a cellar full of claret that would keep your family alive for at least a couple of years. So we head off, in the dark on our ATVs, to someplace near Lewiston, Maine ...
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Re: President Trump

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I like it, we hole up in Maine, drink daily claret, and organize the underground insurrection, only to discover that we have been infiltrated by zombie spies of "The One's" government, detectable only when the local mangy, scab-infested mutts scavenging the garbage bark in their presence.
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Re: President Trump

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I know where there's a yurt in the woods with a generator and a gas stove, less than half a day's atv ride east of Lewiston.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:Imagine having an affliction where one needs a bottle of claret a day to survive...
Imagine?? No need to imagine. :P
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Today's polls have tightened considerably. trouble ahead.
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

Screen Shot 2016-10-26 at 3.53.15 PM.png
Screen Shot 2016-10-26 at 3.53.15 PM.png (102.71 KiB) Viewed 4084 times
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... pan-region

Tighten schmighten
Best

Jacques
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Like Chris Matthews said the other night, these Nate Silver type "percentages" are all BS. He completely rolled his eyes, and I agree.
Trump is up by 2 in Florida per Bloomberg poll, he gained 4 points overnight in the outlier ABC poll.
He and the Republicans have found their voice at the last minute on Obamacare.

If you haven't had a chance to see last night's dust up between Megyn Kelly and Newt Gingrich you should check it out.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

Yeah, Gingrich has some authority on how men should treat women. Not.

And the Obamacare thing isn't going to make anyone switch their vote at this point. Most Americans are not subject to the increases that all the hand wringing is about.

I thought Bob Schrum's forceful comments last night on With All Due Respect last night were poignant as he put Anthony Scaramucci (Trump surrogate) in his place regarding the validity of various polls.
WADR on Bloomberg 10/25
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Re: President Trump

Post by Gerry M. »

This election is making Megyn Kelly's career. The way she maintained her poise and avoided getting sucked into Newt baiting her was great to watch. Newt is the last guy to be preaching sexual morals.
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Re: President Trump

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Definitely. She's really impressive how she handles herself, especially again these nasty old men constantly attacking her.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Phil David »

It's incredible that Trump is still in the running at all. It says that there's a terrible and looming sickness in US democracy and indeed US society that such a divisive, deranged and obnoxious figure could be anywhere near being elected to any office, never mind President.

Not to say this is a singularly US phenomenon, either; you have Putin, Erdogan, Duterte, quasi-fascist governments in Poland and Hungary, a resurgence of the National Front in France, a new far right in Germany, an Australian government that sees nothing wrong in having squalid offshore internment camps for refugees, a wave of violent xenophobia in the UK, and so on. It feels like the world is becoming more authoritarian and more illiberal by the day. I'm starting to think that all this is leading to major armed conflict in the next ten years (outside the routine troublespots).
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Re: President Trump

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Trump signs EVERYWHERE up here in the Maine 2nd CD, the district that numerous experts include in a Trump path-to-victory with exactly 270 electoral votes. The energy is all for Trump, it appears he is going to win this one electoral vote for the first time in Maine history. Watching him on TV now, opening his Washington DC hotel. He's everywhere! It's all Trump, all the time. Where the Christ is Hillary? In her bathrobe somewhere, nowhere to be found.
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Re: President Trump

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Hillary was in NH yesterday with Liz Warren.
She's out there, along with the tag team just about every day now.
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Re: President Trump

Post by dstgolf »

Danny
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Racer Chris
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

omg that was good
:D
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Trump up by 2 in Florida, as Clinton's lead in NH sinks to 4.
The election is getting away from her.
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