President Trump

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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

JimHow wrote:Like Chris Matthews said the other night, these Nate Silver type "percentages" are all BS. He completely rolled his eyes, and I agree.
Makes you sound a little bit like a Republican... you know the science and math and fact deniers/haters that their party has become...

Based on how they are presented in the media, it is tempting to conclude that Nate Silver and like-minded number crunchers are all powerful (and so therefore a tempting target for rejection). But all they are doing is analyzing the data, while acknowledging all along that (a) we have a small sample size of presidential elections, (b) that polls (their data) can be wrong/off, and (c) all their projections are based on past patterns and future probabilities. They try to put estimates of uncertainty around these data, and I think they've done a tremendous job improving their analytical techniques and informing the electorate of the underlying probabilities associated with these things.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

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Yes except that big Nate's percentages are a myth. Go back and check his percentages and predictions on Trump's chances during the primaries. He was right, except when he was wrong... over and over and over again. But pay no attention to those minor details. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Omg he's coming to my neighborhood on Thursday.
He's everywhere!

http://m.sunjournal.com/news/maine/2016 ... ay/2019206
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

There's no excuse for you not to attend. If Trump is elected president, as you predict, you will be able to look back at that rally and say you were there in person when Trump secured this very important electoral vote. Plus no one can give the sort of first-hand report you are capable of making. So I'm petitioning the BD to attend this rally.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

BTW the story says it's Friday. Clear your calendar. Get a continuance. Take the jurors for a view. Whatever it takes, counselor.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Does the D-MAN have a path to victory that doesn't include Utah?
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Re: President Trump

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If he doesn't win Utah he will lose.
I don't know why the Democrats there aren't saying, hey, everybody cast your votes for the Mormon!
Has there been any discussion about that?
Surely I'm not the only one who sees that.
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Re: President Trump

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A fundamentalist church in Lisbon seems like an odd place for him to speak.
I'm assuming it is like the closest place in the second CD to the Portland airport, a drive up 295 from South Portland, past Portland, Falmouth, Yarmouth, Freeport, and over the border into Trumpland, Maine.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Well this is probably just more rigging of the election:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/is-evan-mcmu ... 46263.html

Has Trump even stopped in Utah? I assume typically that would not be on the list of states the GOP nominee would have to contest.
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AKR
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Re: President Trump

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Normally in Utah, Democrats have to wear ankle bracelets and register with the Sheriffs office when they travel.

Tough state for the leftists.
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Antoine
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Re: President Trump

Post by Antoine »

What have both candidates said about Bordeaux wines?
Do they drink the stuff?
Do they like Burgundy? (sorry thread drift...)
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AKR
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Re: President Trump

Post by AKR »

Trump is a teetotaler; apparently his brother died an alcoholic.

Hitler didn't drink either.

You can't trust that type.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Hillary likes a good glass of wine with Chelsea, Huma and the girls.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

#6: Theodore Roosevelt. Any president who is shot in the chest by a would-be assassin and, bleeding substantially, nonetheless went on to give a 90 minute speech because, hey, he wasn't coughing up blood, surely deserves top ten consideration. Teddy was a legendary hunter and outdoorsman before, during, and after his years as president. He served in the Spanish-American War as part of the "Rough Riders." After the war he was elected governor of New York. President William McKinley selected him as vice-president and when McKinley was assassinated, he took office as the youngest president ever (still to this day). He was an incredibly activist president, bringing the emerging United States into the new post-Victorian century. He took on trust busting and government corruption, and brought in heavy regulation of food and drugs. You read the ingredients on your food labels today because of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the greatest conservationist, protecting thousands of acres of pristine land and creating our national park system. In foreign affairs, he promised that America would "speak softly but carry a big stick." He was garrulous, loud, sometimes obnoxious, proud, but committed to helping those most in need in the growing country… perhaps the quintessential American, at least of the time. His expeditions to Africa and South America are stories of legend. He was a universal man. Richard Nixon pitifully hearkened to "TR" in his farewell speech to the White House staff before he resigned:

"Now, however, we look to the future. I had a little quote in the speech last night from T.R. [Theodore Roosevelt]. As you know, I kind of like to read books. I am not educated, but I do read books -- and the T.R. quote was a pretty good one. Here is another one I found as I was reading, my last night in the White House, and this quote is about a young man. He was a young lawyer in New York. He had married a beautiful girl, and they had a lovely daughter, and then suddenly she died, and this is what he wrote. This was in his diary.

He said, "She was beautiful in face and form and lovelier still in spirit. As a flower she grew and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine. There had never come to her a single great sorrow. None ever knew her who did not love and revere her for her bright and sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure and joyous as a maiden, loving, tender and happy as a young wife. When she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun and when the years seemed so bright before her, then by a strange and terrible fate death came to her. And when my heart's dearest died, the light went from my life forever."

That was T.R. in his twenties. He thought the light had gone from his life forever -- but he went on. And he not only became President but, as an ex-President, he served his country, always in the arena, tempestuous, strong, sometimes wrong, sometimes right, but he was a man."

"TR" came back to run for the presidency in 1912 after having been away for four years, as head of he "Bull Moose Party." He got 27% of the vote, compared to President Taft's 23%. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won in an electoral college landslide with 42%. It was a nasty campaign, with times having passed him and his message.

Theodore Roosevelt: A bruising, lusty Pauillac, Mouton at its best. The 6th greatest president from a country with many outstanding leaders. Grade: A.

#5: Thomas Jefferson. The original American Bordeaux Wine Enthusiast! Oh, and he wrote the Declaration of Independence, too, that was pretty good. The ultimate universal man: enlightened; a poet; a mathematician; a politician; a philosopher; a prolific writer; a wine enthusiast. He spoke French and Greek and played the violin. His education and early career were influenced enormously by the Enlightenment and concepts of freedom and human rights: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." His advocacy for religious freedoms has defined the nation for more than two centuries. His residence at Monticello is a national landmark. He served as minister to France (hanging out with Ben Franklin and John Adams in Paris, those must have been some parties) and then as George Washington's Secretary of State. He battled Alexander Hamilton on the issues of the day. He became the third U.S. president in 1800, and oversaw exponential national growth and influence. In retirement he founded the University of Virginia. An amazing human being, he died on July 4, 1825, just hours before John Adams. A Mount Rushmore of a man. His favorite wines: Haut Brion, d'Yquem, Lafite. Grade: A+.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

The polls were decent today for Hillary.
Tomorrow and Monday are big days.
Going into next week, the rubber hits the road.
By wednesday, Thursday, Friday of next week, the polls are REALLY a big deal.
When I was in politics I always felt that we wanted to be "peaking" on the Wednesday and Thursday going into the weekend before the election, because I just "felt" that that was when voters were crystalizing their votes, and to the extent that there might be a "wave" going into the final weekend, that mid-week momentum would impact that wave.
We are getting VERY close to that point. My big fear was that Hillary's firewalls would be eroded by the end of this crucial week, going into that final formative week. At least as of Thursday night, it appears she may have weathered the storm. NH is becoming a YUUGE state, and I'm optimistic there. Encouraging numbers out of NC, with Hillary up 4 in the strong Quinnipiac. National numbers holding. Trump has such a NARROW path to victory. Not impossible though, by any means.
The election will be decided between now and Wednesday.
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Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

Although national level polls are important, isn't focusing on them misleading? Since electoral college votes are state by state, I think it's more useful to focus about the polls state wise, in particular, states that would make the difference...
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Yes, that is definitely the case.
The polls in FL, NC, OH, NV, PA, IA, and NH are really all that matter at this point.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Michael Moore coming out for Trump can't be good for Hillary.
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Racer Chris
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

A new poll in Iowa has HRC tied with DJT in a 4 way race.
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jal
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

I think this is going to be a Hillary victory on the scope of Reagan vs Mondale. Maybe even better.
Best

Jacques
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DavidG
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Re: President Trump

Post by DavidG »

I looked it up:
Popular vote 59% vs 41%, and 49 states to 1?

I want some of what Jacques is drinking!
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

It looks to me like NH is shaping up as Hillary's firewall.
I just can't see Trump winning either PA or NH.
And if he can't win one of those two states, I don't see how he can win, even if we give him the benefit of the doubt everywhere else, including swing states he is losing.
This was a big weather-the-storm week for Clinton.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

FBI reopens email probe.
11 days before the election.
Give me a break.
God, this country is fucked up.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Comey read your posts about the "wave." He has thrown oil on her waters. Her wave is now a receding tide. We need to take this site underground, or encrypt it. I have my tin foil chapeau on now. I made it from classed growth capsules.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

I mean, if this were a novel it would be a bad one!
What's going to happen next?
This may, gulp, push the election over to Trump.
Unbelievable.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Can a lame-duct tape Congress impeach a President-elect? Can the Chief Justice of an eight-member Supreme Court validly swear in a President-elect? Can he then take her hand to shake it and slap cuffs on her? Who would be in charge then? Does the VP take the oath before or after the P-E? Are we staring into the gaping maw of a bottomless power vacuum? I don't think the FFs thought this all the way through.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Will Obama pardon her?
The new House will undoubtedly move to impeach.
The new Senate will undoubtedly vote not to convict on articles of impeachment.
But what if she is indicted criminally?
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

I don't see how she can even think of going to the inauguration. The place is going to be swarming with cops. One of them is bound to arrest her. God forbid she should resist. You know what happens in America.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

This is devastating.
So blatantly political.
On a Friday afternoon.
The national polls will be tied by Monday, and the swing states will all go to Trump by this time next week.
Sean Hannity and Newt Gingrich must be hugging each other right now.
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Racer Chris
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

Pulled from the WSJ article on the newly discovered emails:
In Friday’s letter, Mr. Comey said it wasn’t clear whether the new emails would be important to the probe. “The FBI cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant, and I cannot predict how long it will take us to complete this additional work,” he wrote.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Yes but the rabid right and the Ametican public will not pay attention to those nuances.
Trump will surge through the weekend and into that Wednesday-Thursday period of vote crystallization I mentioned above, and will gain a wave by next weekend that will take him over the top in the swing states.
He will be elected, and his DOJ, led by Chris Christie, will prosecute Hillary.
She will be handcuffed, forced to do a perp walk, will be subjected to a mugshot, and will plead to a federal crime that will require about 9 months in a low security federal prison, a la Martha Stewart.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

This is a rapidly developing story and a potentially "fluid" situation. Apparently either Hillary and Weiner were sexting or Huma and Bill were. This is not good. And I'm not kidding.
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Should I go to cash before the market closes? Or Treasuries? Cash/Treasuries/Gold 33/33/34?
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

There's going to be violence in the streets.
The market is rattled!
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Maybe throw in an IBB kicker? Bound to be a huge rally on Monday if this breaks for Trump.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Meantime, Mister Trump is late for a very important date two miles from my house;

http://m.sunjournal.com/news/lewiston-a ... rk/2020479
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AlohaArtakaHoundsong
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

Weather? More likely the Secret Service requested he return to DC immediately to be sworn in immediately. This is a rapidly developing story.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Omg like you weren't even joking about the Weiner sexting!
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

You guys really need to listen to your BD more often.
For years I told you that guy from Premier Cru was trouble.
And for more than a year I've been telling you that Huma was trouble.
Unbelievable. Huma Abedin is going to bring down Hillary Clinton. Incredible.
This is what happens when you surround yourself with people of weak character-- like Huma Abedin, and Debbie Wasserman, etc.
May heaven help us all.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AlohaArtakaHoundsong »

I'll grant here is something very Nixonian about Hillary. The fault lies not in our stars, but in ourselves.
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