President Trump

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 1:23 pm

No way in hell this is resolved before the election. The real question is exactly what they found on Huma's server. If the missing 33K emails are on there - and if they contain something other than yoga routines and recipes, as Hillary claimed - then there is going to be drama. We won't know until after the election. My bet is that ultimately Huma and/or Mills will see the underside of the bus and Hillary will walk, because that's what Clintons do.

The timing of this certainly does appear political. But then one could argue that the original decision not to recommend indictment seemed political too. Comey spent 15 minutes outlining all the ways in which Clinton violated the statute and then said he wasn't pursuing it because of lack of clear intent, which the statute pointedly does not require. I said at the time, and now believe more than ever, that Comey didn't refer because he didn't want the heat for injecting himself into a political process. He was going to be a part of it whether he liked it or not. Instead, in my view, he thought if he laid out a scathing review of her actions that the public would decide she was not electable. Now he is going back in.

Whether it changes anything remains to be seen. As I said with Trump's disgusting hot mike comments, this won't move the needle. Both candidates are beyond gross and most voters have come to terms with it. Hillary will win.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 1:55 pm

I think this is devastating for her. Not that she should be arrested or impeached or anything like that. But because her poll numbers were really tenuous as it was going into this absolutely crucial final week. She was only +3 in NH, which is a must win firewall for her, BEFORE Huma-gate. Today she is +2 in the ABC national poll. Five days ago she was +12. Even Nate Silver seemed a little nervous last night. What the FBI director did is absolutely outrageous.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:16 pm

I'm hearing on MSNBC that there's talk internally at FBI that Comey is incompetent.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 2:21 pm

Election? This is a circus. Democracy is a zombie.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 3:15 pm

Racer Chris wrote:I'm hearing on MSNBC that there's talk internally at FBI that Comey is incompetent.

That's very true, Chris, but the talk preceded this episode. There were rank and file that thought he handled the initial investigation incompetently.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 3:15 pm

Phil David wrote:Election? This is a circus. Democracy is a zombie.

Amen

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 3:23 pm

God I love Joe Biden.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAcO5TacXVU

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 3:27 pm

JScott wrote:
Racer Chris wrote:I'm hearing on MSNBC that there's talk internally at FBI that Comey is incompetent.
That's very true, Chris, but the talk preceded this episode. There were rank and file that thought he handled the initial investigation incompetently.

The current discussion is around the apparent politicization of the bureau through his public appearances. There was no mention that the actual conduct of the email investigation was politicized.
It was also mentioned that Comey's latest public announcement may be the result of direct pressure from the republicans and the trump campaign.
A line repeated several times was " the investigor has been investigated", meaning that the trump campaign got to him.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Oct 29, 2016 8:11 pm

I saw Ken Starr was just purged over the Baylor University football/rape coverup.

So maybe he needs some new work. Maybe sic him back on the executive branch.

At least the nice thing when the various branches of government are all chasing each other, they have less time to attack the citizenry.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 3:18 pm

Well, here we are in the final week.
Trump is +4 in today's NYT Florida poll, BEFORE Huma-gate.
Some good news is that she is +6 in NC, again before Huma-gate.
She's ahead in early voting but at a rate about where Obama was four years ago in a close race against Romney.
I'm not reading too much into Hillary's early voting lead, Democrats usually lead in those early voting results.
Those who have NOT YET voted swing heavily to Trump in Florida and NC.

What to watch for:

Will the PA and NH firewall hold?
If Clinton wins PA and NH -- both states she SHOULD win, at least before Huma-gate -- then it is pretty hard to see how she loses the presidency.
Winning NC would be gravy.

So… It will be a close race, but we should have a good idea early on in the evening who is going to win when we see the results from PA, NH, NC, and FL.
If Clinton wins PA and NH, it will look good for her. In that scenario, she will be officially declared president-elect by all networks at 11:01 EST, when the polls close on the west coast. If she wins PA and either FL or NC, it is definitely over for the Donald.

If Donald pulls an upset in PA or NH, however, that will portend trouble for Clinton for the rest of the evening.

We should have a full idea of the impact of Huma-gate by Wednesday/Thursday, although we'll have some clues by the way the campaigns -- especially Clinton's -- respond in the next day or two, as they assess their overnight internal polling.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 30, 2016 10:31 pm

You know, as I read all of these articles about Clinton's emails, and the pay to play, and the cool half mil transferred to the wife of the FBI deputy director, and I refresh myself about Whitewater ("gosh, I have no idea how those darn billing records got into the White House"), and I see this Nixonian, Shakspearean quality in Clinton to surround herself with strange and grotesque characters like Huma Abedin, to lie at any cost, regardless of whether it is about her husband's paramours or her classified emails (and her lapse of memory because of her concussion <rolls eyes>), it really is clear to me that this woman has a nonchalance about the law, an arrogance, a character flaw that truly disqualifies her from the presidency. What the heck are we supposed to do? We truly have a criminal on one hand, and a fanatical lunatic on the other. And I use those terms with absolutely no hyperbole. 320 million people in this country and we whittle it down to these two. Incredible.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:20 am

Jim, this has been my conclusion for quite some time. She is horrid. He is horrible.

There are rumors that the missing 33K emails are coming and it ain't pretty.

jal · Post by **jal** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:15 am

JimHow wrote:320 million people in this country and we whittle it down to these two. Incredible.

I've heard this question everywhere the last two months, France, Switzerland, Israel, South Africa. The system has been hijacked by an above the law opportunist and a demagogue.

The NYT had a small piece about the Clintons doing work on their new property in Chappaqua without a permit. I lived there for seventeen years and this is unheard of. The saying "it's better to ask forgiveness than permission" applies, though in their case it's more about pleading ignorance and attacking the doubters.

So we're again with iffy vs shitty and while Hillary is truly repelling, Trump is a sociopath with megalomania tendencies. We will be truly screwed either way but hopefully a bit less so with Hillary. As my favorite neocon Bret Stephens says: "Hillary Clinton, as awful as I find her, is a survivable event. I'm not so sure about Trump"

And yes, I still believe in a landslide if only because Trump is so disgusting.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:11 pm

As predicted, Trump is demagoguing this to the hilt.
Surely this dimwit in the FBI knew what he was opening up.
What a disaster.
I see Trump winning this thing.
I was shocked to read this weekend that both PA and NH do NOT allow for early voting.
It is going to be classic, we are going to see 12 hour lines in the black neighborhoods of Philadelphia….

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:52 pm

And now Donna "Debbie Wasserman Redux" Brazile caught in both a fraud and a lie and a coverup.
This Democratic Party stinks to high heaven.
How do they keep coming up with these bozos?
What arrogance.
The Democratic Party is gonna go down hard next week, brought down by its own hubris.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:47 pm

Incredible. One might ask why Debbie got replaced and Donna lives on. Maybe they've just decided there isn't an honest broker they can tap. The Dems are shameless at this point. I mentioned this before, but I was thinking again about Gary Hart, who dropped out because of a photo with a woman on his lap on a boat. What has happened?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:52 pm

They just…don't…get…it.

Ah well, I'm sure she can score you some Hamilton tix.

For a price.

Tell me that Hillary isn't wondering how she is going to dump Huma if by some miracle she wins.
But, she can't, lest Huma write the tell-all book.
That's always the way it is with the Clintons.
This is the team that hired Dick Morris.

Tom In DC · Post by **Tom In DC** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:10 pm

CNN sure looks bad keeping the Donna Brazile situation under wraps.

And the Dems sure loved Comey a few weeks ago.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:22 pm

By the way…
Watch out for Utah, where that McMullin guy (very impressive, by the way) could pull it out.
Also, keep an eye on Alaska, where several polls have had Hillary ahead, including a poll from a few days ago (pre-Huma) that had her +4.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:39 am

The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

#6: Theodore Roosevelt. Any president who is shot in the chest by a would-be assassin and, bleeding substantially, nonetheless went on to give a 90 minute speech because, hey, he wasn't coughing up blood, surely deserves top ten consideration. Teddy was a legendary hunter and outdoorsman before, during, and after his years as president. He served in the Spanish-American War as part of the "Rough Riders." After the war he was elected governor of New York. President William McKinley selected him as vice-president and when McKinley was assassinated, he took office as the youngest president ever (still to this day). He was an incredibly activist president, bringing the emerging United States into the new post-Victorian century. He took on trust busting and government corruption, and brought in heavy regulation of food and drugs. You read the ingredients on your food labels today because of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the greatest conservationist, protecting thousands of acres of pristine land and creating our national park system. In foreign affairs, he promised that America would "speak softly but carry a big stick." He was garrulous, loud, sometimes obnoxious, proud, but committed to helping those most in need in the growing country… perhaps the quintessential American, at least of the time. His expeditions to Africa and South America are stories of legend. He was a universal man. Richard Nixon pitifully hearkened to "TR" in his farewell speech to the White House staff before he resigned:

"Now, however, we look to the future. I had a little quote in the speech last night from T.R. [Theodore Roosevelt]. As you know, I kind of like to read books. I am not educated, but I do read books -- and the T.R. quote was a pretty good one. Here is another one I found as I was reading, my last night in the White House, and this quote is about a young man. He was a young lawyer in New York. He had married a beautiful girl, and they had a lovely daughter, and then suddenly she died, and this is what he wrote. This was in his diary.

He said, "She was beautiful in face and form and lovelier still in spirit. As a flower she grew and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine. There had never come to her a single great sorrow. None ever knew her who did not love and revere her for her bright and sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure and joyous as a maiden, loving, tender and happy as a young wife. When she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun and when the years seemed so bright before her, then by a strange and terrible fate death came to her. And when my heart's dearest died, the light went from my life forever."

That was T.R. in his twenties. He thought the light had gone from his life forever -- but he went on. And he not only became President but, as an ex-President, he served his country, always in the arena, tempestuous, strong, sometimes wrong, sometimes right, but he was a man."

"TR" came back to run for the presidency in 1912 after having been away for four years, as head of he "Bull Moose Party." He got 27% of the vote, compared to President Taft's 23%. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won in an electoral college landslide with 42%. It was a nasty campaign, with times having passed him and his message.

Theodore Roosevelt: A bruising, lusty Pauillac, Mouton at its best. The 6th greatest president from a country with many outstanding leaders. Grade: A.

#5: Thomas Jefferson. The original American Bordeaux Wine Enthusiast! Oh, and he wrote the Declaration of Independence, too, that was pretty good. The ultimate universal man: enlightened; a poet; a mathematician; a politician; a philosopher; a prolific writer; a wine enthusiast. He spoke French and Greek and played the violin. His education and early career were influenced enormously by the Enlightenment and concepts of freedom and human rights: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." His advocacy for religious freedoms has defined the nation for more than two centuries. His residence at Monticello is a national landmark. He served as minister to France (hanging out with Ben Franklin and John Adams in Paris, those must have been some parties) and then as George Washington's Secretary of State. He battled Alexander Hamilton on the issues of the day. He became the third U.S. president in 1800, and oversaw exponential national growth and influence. In retirement he founded the University of Virginia. An amazing human being, he died on July 4, 1825, just hours before John Adams. A Mount Rushmore of a man. His favorite wines: Haut Brion, d'Yquem, Lafite. Grade: A+.

#4. George Washington. George Washington was the first president of the United States. He was a Founding Father. He was the Commander in Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War. Crossing the Delaware River in the winter of 1776, he defeated the British in key battles at Princeton and Trenton. He presided over the Constitutional Convention of 1787. He was a military man. But he had a prescient awareness of the dangers of dictatorship and monarchy. He rejected much greater powers that would have surely been afforded to him. He established precedents that exist today, more than two centuries later. A very legitimate argument can be made that he was the "greatest" president ever; indeed, many scholars have made that argument. He established the very important precedent of maximum two four-year presidential terms. He brought a decade of peace in the critical first years of the new republic. He was forever non-partisan, beloved by almost all. At his death, Henry Lee summarized it all: "first in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his countrymen." Arguably the greatest ever, like a legendary, regal Margaux. The type of guy that makes you proud to be an American. George Washington to Donald Trump…. Sigh. Grade: A+++

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:48 am

Next up:

The Jim How Top Three Greatest Presidents ever….

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:43 am

Trump is now +1 in the ABC national poll.
A week ago he was -12. Incredible.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:29 pm

Other polls show no change since the Comey announcement.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:47 pm

Health warning this is a shit rag from the UK which helped swing the Brexit vote by peddling lies about immigration but the conspiracy theory sounds plausible.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ation.html

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 3:52 pm

JimHow wrote:Trump is now +1 in the ABC national poll.
A week ago he was -12. Incredible.

The Mountain West will be his Waterloo.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:00 pm

Kind of a bleak or ominous view of things here for any democrat (with a small d).

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... begun.html

By the way, is it still the "Democrat" party or did that go out with W?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:29 pm

SurveyMonkey is calling Wisconsin and Michigan a toss-up, which of course is devastating news for Clinton.
A North Carolina television station has Trump +7 there.
Her numbers are not holding.
Florida and Ohio are lost. Looks bad!
All the mojo is with the Donald with one week to go.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:19 pm

Wouldn't it be awesome if Monday around 4:45pm Comey sends another letter to Congress stating that the FBI has completed its expedited investigation of the Weiner/Huma device and found nothing incriminating vis-a-vis Clinton? He'll come out just fine and I wonder if the millions who've already changed their early votes for Clinton to less early but still early votes for Trump will then go to the polls on Tuesday and re-vote, or just say fuck it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:53 pm

Go Miss Venezuela, go!
If I were the Hillary campaign, I'd bring her along for every speech til next Tuesday!

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Wed Nov 02, 2016 8:23 am

Trump +14 in Maine's second congressional district. Why is this district such an outlier, Jim?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:42 am

Hound, the Maine second CD is white, poor, and uneducated... perfect for Trump country.
BIG poll result coming out today in Wisconsin.
I'm bracing for the worst.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:56 am

Last night on MSNBC, a new tracking poll of early voting and likely voters in FL was previewed.
They report that 28% of GOP early voters in FL have voted for the Democrat presidential candidate.
They also predict a 48% to 40% victory for Clinton in Florida.

Another election predictor was also discussed. Moody's does an economy based model which, this year predicts an electoral decision of 332(D) to 208(R).
The Moody's representative said "Its the economy, stupid".
Gas prices are stable at a very reasonable price, job numbers are good, incomes are up, the Dow remains at more than 18,000.

Its not even going to be close.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:04 am

You didn't buy all that bullshit put out by hyper-partisan Lawrence O'Donnell, did you Chris.
Oh, like he's the ONLY one who knows about these supposed Florida exit results.
Nobody else reported it.
The much more expert Steve Kornacki (sp) in the next hour said there was no signs of what that guy was talking about in Florida.
To the contrary, black vote is down in Floruda, which spells doom for Clinton.
It appears that FL, OH, and NC are lost, and now the only question is whether her MI, WI, PA, NV, NH firewall will hold.
I'm optimistic about all of those states except Wisconsin, where you can expect Scott Walker voter suppression efforts in the poor areas.
And by that way, nobody has predicted an 8 point victory for Clinton in FL, that would be about 8 points more than what Obama beat Romney, which, of course, is silly.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:57 am

There is a big poll coming out today at 1pm by Marquette University that will tell us about Wisconsin, that will tell us a lot about how much/whether Hillary is in trouble.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:16 pm

Jim,
The two new "predictions" that Lawrence made such a big deal about are at least as legitimate as the polls you've been wringing your hands about over and over.
Just because you don't like the source where you first heard it doesn't diminish the value of the information.

Both of these stories have been reported on The Hill and other sources by now.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:03 pm

I'm not sure why you don't think I "like" the source. I pray the source is right. I have seen not a single other news source pick up that story other than the super partisan Lawrence O'Donnell. If Hillary wins Florida by 8 points I will buy you a bottle of 1982 Mouton.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:18 pm

JimHow wrote:I'm not sure why you don't think I "like" the source. I pray the source is right. I have seen not a single other news source pick up that story other than the super partisan Lawrence O'Donnell. If Hillary wins Florida by 8 points I will buy you a bottle of 1982 Mouton.

I meant Lawrence as the "source" in my comment. I know he's hyper partisan but, in spite of his over the top presentation, I like the things he covers.
He was calling Trump a pathological liar before anyone else.

The Miami Herald has reported on the TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll.
Plan on bringing the bottle to BWE 2017.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:23 pm

If Hillary Clinton wins Florida by 8 points I will gladly bring a 1982 Mouton to the 2017 BWE convention to celebrate the election of President Rodham Clinton.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:27 pm

By the way, when this is all over, somebody needs to investigate the FBI and their email accounts.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:31 pm

Marquette University Law School poll has Hillary +6 in Wisconsin.
That's huge news for Hillary in a key firewall state.