President Trump

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Time to gin up some more rigging agitprop? Have you noticed the last week or two Trump has toned down the rig-speak as his polls improved. Is there a causal connection or did his campaign finally get through to him that the rigging allegations might tend to suppress his turnout (notwithstanding promoting whatever other post-election agenda he may have had).

[JimHow]

Yes, his campaign has clearly reined him in.
Unfortunately, he is experiencing that "solid ten day period" that I feared would put him over the top.
Man, he's winning now in NV, which was really a Pacific/Mountain time zone state I was counting on.
Without NV, she suddenly has like ZERO margin of error.
(I'm not counting on FL and NC.)

[Chateau Vin]

Yes, his campaign has clearly reined him in.
.
.
.

I disagree...It's easier to rein in on a raging bull than a bad mouth...

He used to complain more and whine more and purport excuses for an impending loss (a week back), as his nature is always to blame on others for anything that does not go his way(be it business, personal or politics). Now that he sees a better chance to win, he sort of slowed on that...Classic example, ---check the speeches and rants and outlandish claims when he campaigns now in tight races and states...

He has a mentality of 7 year old (sorry for insulting 7 year olds). Blame others, bully others, bad mouth others... Always ready to "Take the ball and go home" when unable to be competitive using generally accepted fair and square methods...

[AKR]

I'm not sure why you don't think I "like" the source. I pray the source is right. I have seen not a single other news source pick up that story other than the super partisan Lawrence O'Donnell. If Hillary wins Florida by 8 points I will buy you a bottle of 1982 Mouton.

A Hillary win doesn't deserve a true first growth??!?!

At least next Wednesday the only thing I can look forward to is a new entry in the lexicon

Trump will become synonymous with great failure

just like Quisling is known for his treason.

[Phil David]

Even if he loses the election Trump has already succeeded in a way. He leaves a trail of chaos and scorched earth and the hatred, division and deranged thinking his rhetoric has whipped up and exploited won't just evaporate on November 9th.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Trump has not left a trail of chaos and hatred in his wake, at least not in the sense that he created it or that this was his ends or objective. He has simply exploited antecedent conditions. The interesting part, which I doubt I'll ever know, is to what extent he believes any of it, or whether he is actually capable of belief at all, or being capable of it, ever in fact believes anything.

[JimHow]

For me, personally, the Marquette Univedsity Law School poll of Hillary +6 in WI is one of the biggest events of the campaign. It tells me she will more likely than not keep WI and MI. And those are two huge firewall states. Now she needs to keep PA and NH. If she does that, she likely wins. If she wins NC or FL, she definitely wins.

With 6 days left, it's still her race to lose.

[JimHow]

Gulp, University of Denver has CO tied, 39-39.
The firewall is bending...

[AKR]

Gulp, University of Denver has CO tied, 39-39.
The firewall is bending...

Hasn't most of CO already voted? I have to think the people they're polling aren't really representative of what has happened.

[DavidG]

If the Cubs can win the Series after being down 3-1, Clinton can win the Presidency.

[JimHow]

Trump is tied in CO and +1 in NH.
Bad. Very bad.

[Racer Chris]

Bill Weld practically endorsed Hillary in an interview yesterday.
He previously said he would be happy if his ticket finished third, behind Trump.

[Racer Chris]

David Frum is voting for Hillary.

[JimHow]

Trump is +3 in Virginia.
It's turning into a wave election.
Everything is breaking for Trump.

[JimHow]

Two polls have Trump up in NH but a local Fox News poll has Hillary +4 in Florida.
Go Florida go! That would be yuuge.
Awaiting any minute the results of a big Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire…

Update: dead heat in Globe/Suffolk poll.
Man did he gain ground fast in NH.

[JimHow]

Wow, the poll results ended up being very good today for Clinton.
Reuters just released a national poll that has her +8 nationally in a 4-way race.
The ABC poll -- which I have always liked, I relied on it heavily four years ago -- has her back up by 2 nationally up from 1 down two days ago.
Another poll has her +6 in Colorado.
She is averaging 4 points up in NC.
And a poll came out today that has her +4 in FL.
And only down by 1 point in GA in today's NBC/WSJ.
The Obamas and some heavy duty surrogates are hitting Florida and North Carolina hard, here's hoping that Dayton country saves the union!
I'm feeling a little better tonight about the polls.

[Blanquito]

Here's 538's projected electoral college totals based on todays' polls (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo);

Hillary Clinton 272
Donald Trump 245

North Carolina and Nevada are calculated as pure 50/50 toss-ups, and so not reflected in these totals. Florida is 51/49 for Trump, but given to him in this scenario. If she wins NV and NC, she gets to 293, with FL she gets up to 322. Either way, a very close Clinton victory!

In this scenario above, Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Georgia and Maine's 2nd District, and Hillary wins Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc. If Trumps sweeps all of the swing states and wins New Hampshire, we get a 269-269 tie!

[JimHow]

How's it looking out there in CO, Patrick?
What's your prediction for CO?

[Chateau Vin]

Melania is gonna work against cyber bullying and would be calling for an end for mean talk if her husband were to occupy the WH....Got a chuckle out of this....

Well, charity begins at home...

[JimHow]

Yeah, I literally laughed out loud at that one.

[Blanquito]

2/3rds or more of Coloradoans now vote early, as we've gone 100% by mail now. I've heard that 50% of the ballots were mailed before Comey's bombshell was dropped on Friday. I guess that helps Hillary, but the latest polls are very tight. Let's put it this way, it will be close but if Clinton loses in Colorado, she's probably toast nationally. That all said, there's been way less buzz here than in 2008 and 2012, I think because most people (and the campaigns too) assumed Hillary would win reasonably easy here.

[JimHow]

ooh, another poll, from "Gravis", which I don't know much about, has Hillary +3 in Florida.
There have been like 5 straight polls that have Hillary between +1 and +4 in FL.
Which, of course, would be the end of this fiasco.
Go, Florida!
Go, Florida, GO!!!!

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

Listen, if Trump can claim to have ended the birther movement with a straight face he can certainly lay claim to mean talk/bullying high ground too. I mean he has also sacrificed for his country, perhaps like no one before him ever has ...

[DavidG]

According to Trump, avoiding VD was his Vietnam.

The analogy seems patently absurd until you remember that we:
A) pulled out and
B) lost the war

[JimHow]

It is early for me to do so, but I feel I have enough information to release my quadrennial presidential electoral college predictions:

FINAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROJECTIONS


A lot has happened since my primarily pessimistic assessment last Thursday afternoon, when I saw a lot of momentum in Trump’s direction. Shortly after I posted that message, some national polls came out showing Hillary ticking upward in key national polls, including ABC and Reuters. She also got some favorable results in Florida, with several polls showing her between +1 and +4. She got good numbers in key firewall states like CO and WI, although MI and PA still make me nervous. The Obamas and other surrogates, including the likes of Pharrell and other entertainers directed at millennials and minorities, came out in a big way, especially in Florida and North Carolina. The Clinton ground game seems far superior to the Trump get-out-the-vote effort, which seems non-existent.


What has made this election so difficult to call is that so many states -- probably about ten of them -- have been polling within the margin of error. And you have all these other dynamics -- millennials and African Americans seem less energized for Hillary, but the Latino vote (not surprisingly) is very energized. Nonetheless, Clinton has been consistently ahead in most of the key states, even if only by a point or two. She started off with a big electoral college demographic advantage and a superior ground and money game. And in the end, Trump himself ended up being her biggest asset. Trump had a good final two weeks, but it was just not enough to overcome all that was going against him, self-inflicted and otherwise. I think the Obamas and all of Hillary’s surrogates really came through for her, especially in FL and NC.


So, my predictions:


1. We will know the outcome early. Almost 70% of the Florida vote has already been cast. The biggest swing states are in the eastern time zone: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. By about 9:30-10pm EST we will know who is going to be the next president. The networks will declare the winner at 11:01 pm, when the polls close in California, Oregon, and Washington state.


2. Don’t forget, Trump will pull ahead in the middle of the evening, as the votes from the south and the west come in. This happens every year, and people get panicked. At 11pm EST, though, a total of 80 electoral votes will come in from CA, OR, WA, and NV.


3. And at that point, Hillary Rodham Clinton will be projected as the 45th president of the United States, the first female president. The popular vote will be fairly close, within 4 percentage points. But it will be an electoral college landslide. As you can see from the map below, I have her winning most of the swing states, including Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada. (Ironically, the one place I’m having the most difficulty predicting is the Maine second congressional district, I’m giving that one electoral vote to Trump but I would not be surprised if it goes to Clinton.)


4. Final electoral college vote results: Clinton, 322; Trump, 216.

[Claret]

I did my early vote in NV yesterday. Dems have turned out more than Repubs in early voting here.

Lots of rednecks here but the recent influx of Californian's is significant.

[Blanquito]

Lots of rednecks here but the recent influx of Californian's is significant.

Same pattern in Colorado too, pretty much. Huge influx on west coasters into CO in the last decade+ and a growing Latino population too.

[Blanquito]

I like your map, Jim. My big worry right now is African American turnout- if they can get this group to the polls effectively, she'll win NC and FL and get to 322 as you predict.

Well done on another election thread, BD! Interesting, entertaining, educational, therapeutic (for me at least), you've done it again, bringing some sanity to an otherwise insane year in politics.

[AlohaArtakaHoundsong]

This is not good. This is not a landslide and I see mischief. If Trump is "ahead" early in the evening and the networks call it for Clinton at 11pm this can only mean that the voting machines leased from the Soros-backed front organizations have "flipped" Trump votes for Clinton. I fear that in the overnight hours and following days the 3%ers will begin to descend on Washington. Trump will remove to one of his properties in a Trump state, perhaps the Trump Tower Boise, and begin to rally those loyal to him in the militia, the Guard and the Armed Forces. We cold see strikes. We could see passive-agressive resistance. Something tells me that November 8th is not the end of this existential struggle, but the beginning.

[JimHow]

I agree, Patrick, these BWE presidential threads are fun.
Lots of passion but no insults, etc., like you see on other sites.
The African American vote is going to be a little down but from what I've been reading the Latino vote is going to be way up.
In the end, it comes back to what Hound said very early in this thread: The demographics are just so heavily in favor of the Democrats in these national races.
Plus, Trump is just too much. I get how the drain the swamp message appeals, etc., but in the end the candidate himself is just too psychologically flawed, and I think it's going to be just too much in the end.

[Blanquito]

Interesting blog on early voting in Nevada, Clinton with a really big, perhaps insurmountable lead:
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-ne ... oting-blog

Without Nevada, looks like there is no way Trump can win-- he can win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Maine's 2nd District, Arizona, and Georgia, and still lose as long as Hillary takes Nevada (which looks good, according to that blog).

[JimHow]

The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

#6: Theodore Roosevelt. Any president who is shot in the chest by a would-be assassin and, bleeding substantially, nonetheless went on to give a 90 minute speech because, hey, he wasn't coughing up blood, surely deserves top ten consideration. Teddy was a legendary hunter and outdoorsman before, during, and after his years as president. He served in the Spanish-American War as part of the "Rough Riders." After the war he was elected governor of New York. President William McKinley selected him as vice-president and when McKinley was assassinated, he took office as the youngest president ever (still to this day). He was an incredibly activist president, bringing the emerging United States into the new post-Victorian century. He took on trust busting and government corruption, and brought in heavy regulation of food and drugs. You read the ingredients on your food labels today because of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the greatest conservationist, protecting thousands of acres of pristine land and creating our national park system. In foreign affairs, he promised that America would "speak softly but carry a big stick." He was garrulous, loud, sometimes obnoxious, proud, but committed to helping those most in need in the growing country… perhaps the quintessential American, at least of the time. His expeditions to Africa and South America are stories of legend. He was a universal man. Richard Nixon pitifully hearkened to "TR" in his farewell speech to the White House staff before he resigned:

"Now, however, we look to the future. I had a little quote in the speech last night from T.R. [Theodore Roosevelt]. As you know, I kind of like to read books. I am not educated, but I do read books -- and the T.R. quote was a pretty good one. Here is another one I found as I was reading, my last night in the White House, and this quote is about a young man. He was a young lawyer in New York. He had married a beautiful girl, and they had a lovely daughter, and then suddenly she died, and this is what he wrote. This was in his diary.

He said, "She was beautiful in face and form and lovelier still in spirit. As a flower she grew and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine. There had never come to her a single great sorrow. None ever knew her who did not love and revere her for her bright and sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure and joyous as a maiden, loving, tender and happy as a young wife. When she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun and when the years seemed so bright before her, then by a strange and terrible fate death came to her. And when my heart's dearest died, the light went from my life forever."

That was T.R. in his twenties. He thought the light had gone from his life forever -- but he went on. And he not only became President but, as an ex-President, he served his country, always in the arena, tempestuous, strong, sometimes wrong, sometimes right, but he was a man."

"TR" came back to run for the presidency in 1912 after having been away for four years, as head of he "Bull Moose Party." He got 27% of the vote, compared to President Taft's 23%. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won in an electoral college landslide with 42%. It was a nasty campaign, with times having passed him and his message.

Theodore Roosevelt: A bruising, lusty Pauillac, Mouton at its best. The 6th greatest president from a country with many outstanding leaders. Grade: A.

#5: Thomas Jefferson. The original American Bordeaux Wine Enthusiast! Oh, and he wrote the Declaration of Independence, too, that was pretty good. The ultimate universal man: enlightened; a poet; a mathematician; a politician; a philosopher; a prolific writer; a wine enthusiast. He spoke French and Greek and played the violin. His education and early career were influenced enormously by the Enlightenment and concepts of freedom and human rights: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." His advocacy for religious freedoms has defined the nation for more than two centuries. His residence at Monticello is a national landmark. He served as minister to France (hanging out with Ben Franklin and John Adams in Paris, those must have been some parties) and then as George Washington's Secretary of State. He battled Alexander Hamilton on the issues of the day. He became the third U.S. president in 1800, and oversaw exponential national growth and influence. In retirement he founded the University of Virginia. An amazing human being, he died on July 4, 1825, just hours before John Adams. A Mount Rushmore of a man. His favorite wines: Haut Brion, d'Yquem, Lafite. Grade: A+.

#4. George Washington. George Washington was the first president of the United States. He was a Founding Father. He was the Commander in Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War. Crossing the Delaware River in the winter of 1776, he defeated the British in key battles at Princeton and Trenton. He presided over the Constitutional Convention of 1787. He was a military man. But he had a prescient awareness of the dangers of dictatorship and monarchy. He rejected much greater powers that would have surely been afforded to him. He established precedents that exist today, more than two centuries later. A very legitimate argument can be made that he was the "greatest" president ever; indeed, many scholars have made that argument. He established the very important precedent of maximum two four-year presidential terms. He brought a decade of peace in the critical first years of the new republic. He was forever non-partisan, beloved by almost all. At his death, Henry Lee summarized it all: "first in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his countrymen." Arguably the greatest ever, like a legendary, regal Margaux. The type of guy that makes you proud to be an American. George Washington to Donald Trump…. Sigh. Grade: A+++

#3. Franklin D. Roosevelt. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIKMbma6_dc
Elected to four terms, Franklin Roosevelt changed American and world government as much as any president. His "New Deal" initiated radical programs of welfare, social security, and banking reforms, many of which are still taken for granted today. He inspired a country out of the Great Depression, and, on December 7, 1941, "a date which will live in infamy," entered the United States into the fight against fascism. He lost the use of his legs upon contracting polio at the age of 39 while swimming on Campobello Island at the family cottage on the Maine-canadian border, but it did not stop his unbounded optimism and positive spirit. He repealed Prohibition in 1933. He swiftly enacted laws that aided the poor, elderly, farmers, and workers. His wife Eleanor was an enormous advocate and political force for the poor, often prodding her somewhat more politically practical husband into action. He attempted, unsuccessfully, to pack the U.S. Supreme Court with additional members in an effort to advance his liberal legislative initiatives. In addition to Social Security, his creation of the FDIC, the National Labor Relations Act, and the Securities and Exchange Commission changed the way the country does business to this day. Joining forces with Churchill, Stalin, and others, he truly helped to save the world. One of my favorite parts of Westminster Abbey is the small memorial there to FDR: "To the honoured memory of Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1882 1945 a faithful friend of freedom and of Britain. Four times President of the United States. Erected by the Government of the United Kingdom". http://www.westminster-abbey.org/our-hi ... -roosevelt
My father, 19 years old at the time, saw FDR in Virginia before he was shipped off to Casablanca for his service in North Africa and italy.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt: A 1945 Mouton. Grade: A+++.

[Chateau Vin]

Please don't tell me that Reagan is still to come...

[JimHow]

Ha ha we shall see, CV, we shall see,
Up next: The two greatest presidents in U.S. history....

Hillary is +5 in today's national ABC tracking poll, up 6 points from a week ago, right after Huma-Gate.
I remember the ABC poll breaking similarly for Obama right at the end when he beat Romney four years ago.

[JimHow]

I agree with the Huffington Post in this little spat with Nate Silver.
If Hillary wins Florida, Nate is gonna have some 'splainin' to do.
He's really been hedging his bets.
Come on, Nate, what is your final call. I made mine two days ago and I'm sticking with it.
I don't get his analysis. He has Trump ahead in FL, NC, and NV, yet he has Hillary with 291 electoral votes.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/n ... ter-230815

[JimHow]

Interesting that Trump is going to MN.
Is that a sign of strength or a sign of desperation?
I think it is the latter.
I'm with those number crunchers who say it is a 99% chance of a Clinton victory.

[Blanquito]

Nate still feels burned ignoring the polls and his own model when he insisted Trump wouldn't win the primary. But I'm with you, he's need to step up.

[JimHow]

The Jim How Top Ten Greatest Presidents, and their Bordeaux wine counterparts…..

#10. Dwight Eisenhower. It was tough, there are about 5 or 6 others who could easily be included in the top 10, I'll mention them in honorable mention at the end. But if I have to pick, I have to include Ike in my top ten. He gets in, of course, at least as much if not more for his leadership in WWII, managing the competing personalities involved. As president he presided over post-war growth and prosperity, the interstate highway system, appointed Earl Warren, provided moderation at a time the country welcomed it, warned against the military-industrial complex. He was strong and solid, nothing fancy, but great backbone, like a great St. Estephe, a Cos d'estournel of the 1980s or even a Montrose of the 2000s. B+.

#9: Woodrow Wilson: Despite his faults, he ushered in a new era. In his 8 years there was a paradigm shift in world power, as the United States emerged at the top. He was celebrated mightily in Europe at the end of World War I, enhancing American power and strength (for better and worse). Despite its ultimate failures, the League of Nations set a template and created a mechanism for the solution of world problems that was quite revolutionary at the time and that set in motion for the next century a new way of thinking about global relations that had never existed before in the history of the world. The population and immigration influx grew enormously during his administration. His racism will knock him down from a higher standing but, hey, there will be others higher on this list who owned hundreds of slaves. Presiding over victory in World War I tends to score high with most historians. He was an incredibly lusty, pornographic lover, writing literally thousands of unapologetically pornographic letters to his two wives. He suffered a serious stroke and the fruit did not survive the tannins. He was an intellectual, stern, with a surprising sultriness… like the 2002 left bank Bordeaux vintage. B+.

#8: Barack Obama: 1989-Lynch-Bages-like. As we have sunk to crazy depths in American politics in the past 20-30 years, Obama has shown class, steadiness, quiet strength. He can be infuriating at times when he "plays the game" of Democratic Party politics. I almost took him off the list this week for his continuing support of Debbie Wasserman alone. (James Polk sadly goes out of the top ten, I really wanted to get him in there.) But I think that, regardless of the outcome this November, the world is going to miss this guy. He scores very big points in my book for his class, intelligence, calm. He and his administration have been scandal free, no small task in this day and age. He has a beautiful family. Obamacare may not be everything people hoped for, but it is at least a beginning. And it is a FDR-like "big idea" that will go down in history as a success. He stalked and got Bin Laden. He has been steadfast for women's rights, which to me is one of the top three most important issues. He is witty. He has a lot of Hillary in him in that he is slow to come around on certain issues until the polls say it is okay, but for some reason it doesn't offend me as much. He has a charming geekiness about him. His life story is compelling, his election historic. Certain economic indicators like the stock market, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc., may seem strong but belie fundamental, structural weaknesses in the economy that he has not had much impact upon in his 8 years, keeping him from a higher grade. I guess, in the end, I just think he's a good man, a basically decent person. He inherited some awful messes. I guess we'll have to see how his foreign policies end up playing out, but in general I think if you answer the Reagan question: Politics aside, "are we better off today than we were 8 years ago?" I say, the answer is "Yes." B+.

#7: James Madison. As I've said several times, this country has been REALLY lucky to have some great stewards in the office of the presidency. With only a few notable exceptions (and one that I'm sure some will find very surprising on my list), even our less successful presidents have carried the torch well, certainly when you compare them up against what we see in other parts of the world. It was a completely different universe, of course, an age when the president used to just walk or ride his horse out among the public. But in many ways James Madison bears some similarities to Eisenhower, in the sense that perhaps his greatest accomplishments occurred BEFORe he became president, then went on to have a successful two term administration during a time of dramatic post-war growth. James Madison was "The Father of the Constitution," with John Jay and Alexander Hamilton one of the authors of The Federalist Papers, tasked with selling the Constitution to the skeptical states. As if that wasn't enough, he basically wrote the Bill of Rights -- something we take for granted today but by no means a given in his day. He was part of a group of men that come around once every thousand years or so. He was integral to the Louisiana Purchase, which doubled the size of the young country. His young wife Dolley expanded the role of the first lady, again, stuff we take for granted today. His leadership and writing had as much of an impact on the path of American jurisprudence that was to come for two centuries. What a man! A bit of a tannic streak with the mismanagement of the War of 1812, but a beast of a president! 1982 Gruaud Larose. A-minus.

#6: Theodore Roosevelt. Any president who is shot in the chest by a would-be assassin and, bleeding substantially, nonetheless went on to give a 90 minute speech because, hey, he wasn't coughing up blood, surely deserves top ten consideration. Teddy was a legendary hunter and outdoorsman before, during, and after his years as president. He served in the Spanish-American War as part of the "Rough Riders." After the war he was elected governor of New York. President William McKinley selected him as vice-president and when McKinley was assassinated, he took office as the youngest president ever (still to this day). He was an incredibly activist president, bringing the emerging United States into the new post-Victorian century. He took on trust busting and government corruption, and brought in heavy regulation of food and drugs. You read the ingredients on your food labels today because of Teddy Roosevelt. He was the greatest conservationist, protecting thousands of acres of pristine land and creating our national park system. In foreign affairs, he promised that America would "speak softly but carry a big stick." He was garrulous, loud, sometimes obnoxious, proud, but committed to helping those most in need in the growing country… perhaps the quintessential American, at least of the time. His expeditions to Africa and South America are stories of legend. He was a universal man. Richard Nixon pitifully hearkened to "TR" in his farewell speech to the White House staff before he resigned:

"Now, however, we look to the future. I had a little quote in the speech last night from T.R. [Theodore Roosevelt]. As you know, I kind of like to read books. I am not educated, but I do read books -- and the T.R. quote was a pretty good one. Here is another one I found as I was reading, my last night in the White House, and this quote is about a young man. He was a young lawyer in New York. He had married a beautiful girl, and they had a lovely daughter, and then suddenly she died, and this is what he wrote. This was in his diary.

He said, "She was beautiful in face and form and lovelier still in spirit. As a flower she grew and as a fair young flower she died. Her life had been always in the sunshine. There had never come to her a single great sorrow. None ever knew her who did not love and revere her for her bright and sunny temper and her saintly unselfishness. Fair, pure and joyous as a maiden, loving, tender and happy as a young wife. When she had just become a mother, when her life seemed to be just begun and when the years seemed so bright before her, then by a strange and terrible fate death came to her. And when my heart's dearest died, the light went from my life forever."

That was T.R. in his twenties. He thought the light had gone from his life forever -- but he went on. And he not only became President but, as an ex-President, he served his country, always in the arena, tempestuous, strong, sometimes wrong, sometimes right, but he was a man."

"TR" came back to run for the presidency in 1912 after having been away for four years, as head of he "Bull Moose Party." He got 27% of the vote, compared to President Taft's 23%. Democrat Woodrow Wilson won in an electoral college landslide with 42%. It was a nasty campaign, with times having passed him and his message.

Theodore Roosevelt: A bruising, lusty Pauillac, Mouton at its best. The 6th greatest president from a country with many outstanding leaders. Grade: A.

#5: Thomas Jefferson. The original American Bordeaux Wine Enthusiast! Oh, and he wrote the Declaration of Independence, too, that was pretty good. The ultimate universal man: enlightened; a poet; a mathematician; a politician; a philosopher; a prolific writer; a wine enthusiast. He spoke French and Greek and played the violin. His education and early career were influenced enormously by the Enlightenment and concepts of freedom and human rights: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." His advocacy for religious freedoms has defined the nation for more than two centuries. His residence at Monticello is a national landmark. He served as minister to France (hanging out with Ben Franklin and John Adams in Paris, those must have been some parties) and then as George Washington's Secretary of State. He battled Alexander Hamilton on the issues of the day. He became the third U.S. president in 1800, and oversaw exponential national growth and influence. In retirement he founded the University of Virginia. An amazing human being, he died on July 4, 1825, just hours before John Adams. A Mount Rushmore of a man. His favorite wines: Haut Brion, d'Yquem, Lafite. Grade: A+.

#4. George Washington. George Washington was the first president of the United States. He was a Founding Father. He was the Commander in Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War. Crossing the Delaware River in the winter of 1776, he defeated the British in key battles at Princeton and Trenton. He presided over the Constitutional Convention of 1787. He was a military man. But he had a prescient awareness of the dangers of dictatorship and monarchy. He rejected much greater powers that would have surely been afforded to him. He established precedents that exist today, more than two centuries later. A very legitimate argument can be made that he was the "greatest" president ever; indeed, many scholars have made that argument. He established the very important precedent of maximum two four-year presidential terms. He brought a decade of peace in the critical first years of the new republic. He was forever non-partisan, beloved by almost all. At his death, Henry Lee summarized it all: "first in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his countrymen." Arguably the greatest ever, like a legendary, regal Margaux. The type of guy that makes you proud to be an American. George Washington to Donald Trump…. Sigh. Grade: A+++

#3. Franklin D. Roosevelt. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIKMbma6_dc
Elected to four terms, Franklin Roosevelt changed American and world government as much as any president. His "New Deal" initiated radical programs of welfare, social security, and banking reforms, many of which are still taken for granted today. He inspired a country out of the Great Depression, and, on December 7, 1941, "a date which will live in infamy," entered the United States into the fight against fascism. He lost the use of his legs upon contracting polio at the age of 39 while swimming on Campobello Island at the family cottage on the Maine-canadian border, but it did not stop his unbounded optimism and positive spirit. He repealed Prohibition in 1933. He swiftly enacted laws that aided the poor, elderly, farmers, and workers. His wife Eleanor was an enormous advocate and political force for the poor, often prodding her somewhat more politically practical husband into action. He attempted, unsuccessfully, to pack the U.S. Supreme Court with additional members in an effort to advance his liberal legislative initiatives. In addition to Social Security, his creation of the FDIC, the National Labor Relations Act, and the Securities and Exchange Commission changed the way the country does business to this day. Joining forces with Churchill, Stalin, and others, he truly helped to save the world. One of my favorite parts of Westminster Abbey is the small memorial there to FDR: "To the honoured memory of Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1882 1945 a faithful friend of freedom and of Britain. Four times President of the United States. Erected by the Government of the United Kingdom". http://www.westminster-abbey.org/our-hi ... -roosevelt
My father, 19 years old at the time, saw FDR in Virginia before he was shipped off to Casablanca for his service in North Africa and italy.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt: A 1945 Mouton. Grade: A+++.

#2. John F. Kennedy.
"Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."
Most historians, of course, do not place John Kennedy in the top ten. Largely because of the mere "thousand days" of his presidency. But I disagree. The Kennedy presidency, brief as it was, has haunted this country for more than a half century. The images of the young family in the White House are ingrained forever in the American psyche. John Kennedy was no angel. Like Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, he was a sex addict. He was arrogant. He could be a total dink. But the promise of Kennedy was his ability to challenge the country, especially the young: "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard…." He created the Peace Corps. He took on Soviet aggression in the Cuban Missile Crisis… many will argue that he brought the world unnecessarily close to the brink, but anyone who has studied the 13 days in October will understand that, having learned hard lessons from a year before during the Bay of Pigs invasion, he and his brother Bobby managed the crisis brilliantly, stood up to the generals, and enabled Khrushchev to save face.
http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct17/
His beautiful, stylish wife and picture-perfect children captured the hearts of many in the U.S. and around the globe, particularly a post-World War II generation that was reproducing exponentially and adjusting to a still relatively new role as the world's leading power. There are those who wonder whether he would have remained in Vietnam. I'm on the side of those who say he would have exited Vietnam. The Cuban Missile Crisis sobered him. By June of 1963, just a few months before his death, he was calling for world peace at American University in what many historians consider his greatest speech. I occasionally watch his "Peace" speech for inspiration, especially during times like what we have been going through in this awful campaign. I always urge people to watch it if you have a chance, it is Kennedy at his absolute height:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fkKnfk4k40
He utilized the powers of the U.S. Justice Department, led by his brother, to enforce civil rights, taking on George Wallace at the University of Alabama. He was proceeding cautiously on civil rights, but proceeding forward nonetheless. Watching MLK's "I Have a Dream," he called it the greatest speech he had ever heard.
He brought culture and the arts into the White House. He was actually quite conservative fiscally. He hung out with astronauts, philosophers, and poets. As Roman Catholic New Englanders, he was "one of us": Young, handsome, a navy World War II veteran, Harvard-educated, Boston-born with a thick, unique Boston accent, not quite Brahmin, but distinctively Bah-ston.
It all came to an end in a few short seconds in November 1963, violently, grotesquely, in a murder following which the country has never been quite the same. The assassination was followed by others, including those of Malcolm X, Martin Luther King, and Bobby Kennedy, and the country emerged from the decade of the 1960s into the era of Nixon, Watergate, materialism, crime, poverty, weakness, inflation, greed, Reaganism, and war, war, war, and more war.
By the end of the 1960s, though, despite all the pain, man landed on the moon -- in my view, the greatest achievement in the history of mankind -- and possible only because of the challenge of young John Kennedy in the early years of the decade.
John Kennedy had an affinity for the French, and the French reciprocated, largely because of Jacqueline Bouvier. John Kennedy drank alcohol moderately, but his favorite wines were Bordeaux… in particular, Chateau Latour.
Though most historians disagree, I believe John Kennedy was one of our greatest presidents -- I rate him second -- because of the influence that he had in particular upon young people, both during and following his "thousand days" in office.
Grade: A+++.

[Racer Chris]

I can only think of one name you've left off the list so far.

[JimHow]

Yes, there are presidents….
And then there are gods.