President Trump

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:41 am

Antoine wrote:Let's get back to wine. 2 questions:
- What will you open if Hillary gets it?
- What will you open if Trump gets it?

I'm going to drink American wine on Tuesday. 2011 Merryvale Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll and 2015 Merryvale Sauvignon Blanc.
A bottle of bubbly will be at the ready, to be opened if having our first female president is the projected outcome before we go to bed.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:30 pm

JimHow wrote:JScott, how do things look in Cincinnati-Dayton?
I've always considered JScott's county the ultimate bellwether, where, electorally, at least, east meets west meets north meets south.

Tough to call, Jim. Feels close. There is an intensity and polarization, more than any election I can remember. The Democrat ground game swamps the GOP, though. Very visible. How much that will matter is hard to say, because not much is going to change minds at this point.

I still think she will win, but I won't be popping champagne. Sorry to throw cold water on the enthusiasm. She is as corrupt as any candidate ever to stand for office, and we're about to vote her in any way. I can't just say 'it's just the way things are done' or 'everyone else does it too.' It isn't, and we're supposed to want more than that regardless. The truth is, no matter the outcome, tomorrow is a dark day for all of us, and I am deeply concerned about what's coming.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:50 pm

Yes I agree Scott.
It was after the first debate, though, that I decided I had to vote for Clinton.
As you know, I despise most of what she and her friends have been doing.
But I have followed Trump closely for more than a year and I have concluded that he is not only a bully, a braggart, a hater, etc., etc., but that he is truly a very mentally deranged individual.
And in the end I'm voting for the crook over the mentally unbalanced.
If the Maine second CD weren't in play I would probably vote for neither.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:05 pm

There seems to be a widely held view on your side of the pond that Hillary is corrupt. Yet, on our side of the pond, apart from Donald's apparently unsubstantiated claims (she is the most corrupt ever... but no substance and, so far, no indictment we are aware of), we have had little evidence and/or briefing on her corruption apart from the email confidentiality story which is more presented over here as being very stupid rather than corrupt (what benefit?...I can see lots of problems but benefit?).
Can you enlighten us?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:56 pm

Antoine: I will take a shot at answering your question but it will take some time.
My Monday morning is pretty crazy here at the office, I'll respond to you in the next day or two.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:57 pm

Ah yes, Nate Silver has moved NC and NV from red to blue.
And, while still light red, he has FL at basically 50-50.
I predict FL will be blue by 8pm tonight.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:59 pm

+1 on that Antoine, a very pertinent question.

My wife thinks it's driven by misogyny. But I don't remember that being a huge factor for other female premiers, least of all for Margaret Thatcher.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:00 pm

Oops, now NC is back in light red.
Polls are tight but consistently steady, both in nationwide results and swing states, for Clinton in the +1 to +4 range.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:33 pm

These polls are crazy.
One poll in NH has Clinton +1, the other has her +11.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:59 pm

This sums of my feelings of the campaign pretty well:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/op ... times.com/

Of course, I'm fully partisan.

Hillary has her flaws and the Clintons have undoubtedly cashed in on their connections, but despite breathless hints from the Right Wing propaganda to the contrary, from all that I've seen, they cashed in in entirely legal ways. But Trump is a liar that would make Goebbels proud, out-an-out crook and a fraud across the board, and a serial sex offender. No contest.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:27 pm

Thanks for sharing that Patrick.
I'm largely in agreement with you.

I find this sentence from the Krugman piece compelling:
"First, Mrs. Clinton has actually run a remarkable campaign, demonstrating her tenacity in the face of unfair treatment and remaining cool under pressure that would have broken most of us."

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:31 pm

My wife is working at our town's single polling place this year, crossing voters off as they show their ID.
She has to leave the house around 5am and won't be back until after 8pm.
I'll make her a bag lunch and I'll plan a nice hot meal for when she gets home.

jal · Post by **jal** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:27 pm

JimHow wrote:Yes I agree Scott.
It was after the first debate, though, that I decided I had to vote for Clinton.
As you know, I despise most of what she and her friends have been doing.
But I have followed Trump closely for more than a year and I have concluded that he is not only a bully, a braggart, a hater, etc., etc., but that he is truly a very mentally deranged individual.
And in the end I'm voting for the crook over the mentally unbalanced.
If the Maine second CD weren't in play I would probably vote for neither.

Yes, if I was still living in NY State, I would probably not bother voting. In Florida I'm on the front lines.
I don't think she's a crook or that she's corrupt but I do believe she feels she's above the law. Pay to play, private email server, deny, lie and smear whoever attacks you, plus there's a greed and an arrogance about her that turns me off. Still, I stand by my vote. She is a survivable event, Trump may cause irreparable harm.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:09 pm

Bloomberg this morning has a report from some analysts in Florida who's conducted a line by line comparison of early ballot returns, comparing WHO has returned ballots versus those who voted in 2012. Apparently something like 1/4 to 1/3 of the early ballots being returned had not voted last cycle, and of that crowd, they are much more registered Democrats. This was in Broward county, which was the backdrop for a fine 1980's crime drama featuring Don Johnson and Phillip Michael Thomas. This feeds into the argument that DJT has motivated many new voters, but apparently who want to vote against him, if Dem registry is a proxy for that. That populous county is heavily Hispanic.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:15 pm

AKR wrote:Bloomberg this morning has a report from some analysts in Florida who's conducted a line by line comparison of early ballot returns, comparing WHO has returned ballots versus those who voted in 2012. Apparently something like 1/4 to 1/3 of the early ballots being returned had not voted last cycle, and of that crowd, they are much more registered Democrats. This was in Broward county, which was the backdrop for a fine 1980's crime drama featuring Don Johnson and Phillip Michael Thomas. This feeds into the argument that DJT has motivated many new voters, but apparently who want to vote against him, if Dem registry is a proxy for that. That populous county is heavily Hispanic.

If that's the case, I wonder about early voting in Miami-Dade County, which is even more hispanic...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:20 pm

The national polls on realclearpolitics.com are really leaning for Clinton.
She is consistently in the +4 range, with some as high as +7.
Still close in FL and NC and some other swing states, but I'm optimistic.
These are all results that were similar, perhaps even a little better, than what Obama was performing against Romney on the day before election day in 2012.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:27 pm

Ha it's noon EST on the day before election and Nate Silver has moved NV, NC, AND FL into blue.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:29 pm

Antoine and Phil,

Much as Jim indicated, her transgressions are actually so numerous and some of them so involved that it's difficult to present a concise summary. But start with this:

She received a Congressional subpoena for all of her records, and her first act was to irreparably destroy half of them. Any other average citizen would be in jail for that alone. She has (successfully, judging by the response here and nationally) presented the defense you mentioned. It was just innocent carelessness. First, that is irrelevant. The laws don't require intent or damage. Legally, you are not permitted to be careless, so it is not a defense, and to be clear, this administration has prosecuted, fined and jailed other citizens for far less. Second, it is a ridiculous defense on the face of it. The self-proclaimed smartest and most experienced woman on earth didn't know the rules? Imagine owning a kennel where all the dogs died and claiming you weren't aware you were supposed to feed them. Just a little innocent carelessness. This is the rough equivalent. The idea that anyone in that position - Secretary of State! - is not familiar with the security rules is absurd. Furthermore, recently released emails show clearly that she was very aware of the impropriety and illegality.

Then there is the Clinton Foundation (which remains under FBI investigation as of this writing) where there is substantial concern about solicitation of government favors in exchange for "donations."

There are many more scandals historically as well, of course. I get utterly weary of this misogyny argument that is continually tossed around. There is not the slightest thread of evidence of that, except as practiced by Hillary herself. Whatever misogynistic utterances The Donald has spewed (plenty) she has met in spades in defense of her husband. She is at least the misogynist that he is.

It is not my place to tell anyone how to vote, and I completely understand the concern about her counterpart being elected. People will process all of this how they like, but any notion that she is either innocent or being unfairly pursued is simply a cartoon.

She places herself above the law. My point is that most thinking people know and admit this, but we're about to elect her any way.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:45 pm

Did Hillary really proclaim herself to be the smartest and most experienced woman on earth?

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:28 pm

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:Did Hillary really proclaim herself to be the smartest and most experienced woman on earth?

Don't have a pull quote for you, but her ads "that she approved" do.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:29 pm

Larry Sabato's final predictions:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crysta ... 016-picks/

He and I are in agreement by the way, except I give Maine's 2nd District to Clinton. I do think we are looking at a 50-50 Senate, unless Clinton's ground game gives Ross a point or two, then it's 51-49.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:44 pm

Looks like he has it the way I do, I'm gonna stick with the 322-216.
It's really crazy that electors are not bound. That is insanity plus to me if this becomes 270-268 or some such scenario.
Some day we're gonna be sorry.
Hopefully not tomorrow with those two rogue electors from Washington state.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:47 pm

Susan Collins from Maine will go along with Democats on occasion, that just won't help with enacting the nuclear option that will be required to eliminate filibuster in the Supreme Court appointment.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:01 pm

I thought this was a pretty thoughtful piece from a conservative Republican on the challenges that his party faces after the election - whether Trump wins or loses. This is from the New York Times which is providing unlimited free access Nov. 7-9, so it should be available to anyone on those dates.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/opini ... ef=opinion

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:40 pm

Jon,

Actually, I think the GOP is done and his article is emblematic of precisely why. He wants to defeat his base, which he clearly doesn't understand.

I don't buy into the xenophobia/misogyny/racism meme. It is cliche and inaccurate. There are certainly those that fit those descriptors on both sides, but in neither case does it remotely resemble a majority. There are some fundamental differences of opinion about policy. Someone who differs on taxation and spending on given programs, or to what extent one's rights interfere with another, or what the role of government should be in daily life doesn't qualify as a bigot, and characterizing them that way is reckless, lazy and prolongs the division. Trump is a horse's ass and he makes me as nervous as many here. He is not symbolic of his supporters, but the one who gave voice to that dissent. Ask them and they will tell you that. Until and unless that point of view is recognized, heard and brought into the discussion, we will have turmoil. Dismissing it all as character flaw may make some people feel superior but is going to lead to a tough outcome.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:59 pm

If Clinton wins and the Dems get 50+ senators after tomorrow, I predict the Dems get rid of the filibuster in January unless the Republicabs agree to give Garland an up or down vote in the lame duck session.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:02 pm

JScott wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:Did Hillary really proclaim herself to be the smartest and most experienced woman on earth?
Don't have a pull quote for you, but her ads "that she approved" do.

I'd like to see those ad(s).

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:05 pm

The Dow ended up 300, the wise guys believe it is Hillary.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:44 pm

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:
JScott wrote:
AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:Did Hillary really proclaim herself to be the smartest and most experienced woman on earth?
Don't have a pull quote for you, but her ads "that she approved" do.
I'd like to see those ad(s).

They're playing nightly here, multiple times a night. Various themes. In the interest of equal time, Donald claims he will be the greatest president ever. And that he's smarter than all the generals.

Interesting that of everything I said in that post that's what you find most problematic. If you prefer, in place of "self-proclaimed" I will stipulate "widely acclaimed" or "often considered" or even "said by some to be." Doesn't change the premise.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:54 pm

JScott wrote:Jon,

Actually, I think the GOP is done and his article is emblematic of precisely why. He wants to defeat his base, which he clearly doesn't understand.

I don't buy into the xenophobia/misogyny/racism meme. It is cliche and inaccurate. There are certainly those that fit those descriptors on both sides, but in neither case does it remotely resemble a majority. There are some fundamental differences of opinion about policy. Someone who differs on taxation and spending on given programs, or to what extent one's rights interfere with another, or what the role of government should be in daily life doesn't qualify as a bigot, and characterizing them that way is reckless, lazy and prolongs the division. Trump is a horse's ass and he makes me as nervous as many here. He is not symbolic of his supporters, but the one who gave voice to that dissent. Ask them and they will tell you that. Until and unless that point of view is recognized, heard and brought into the discussion, we will have turmoil. Dismissing it all as character flaw may make some people feel superior but is going to lead to a tough outcome.

Political parties morph and change over time. Whigs and Federalists and Republicans and Democrats and so on.

A big slice of America doesn't feel like the current system works for them, and whether its Bernie or Trump, someone will court their votes.

The street battles of the 20's Weimar Republic had plenty of aggrieved parties on either side.

It seems like we're entering that stage of the 100 year historical cycle.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:25 am

I'm fired up... and ready to go!

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016 ... re-bts.cnn

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:29 am

JScott wrote:
They're playing nightly here, multiple times a night. Various themes. In the interest of equal time, Donald claims he will be the greatest president ever. And that he's smarter than all the generals.

Interesting that of everything I said in that post that's what you find most problematic. If you prefer, in place of "self-proclaimed" I will stipulate "widely acclaimed" or "often considered" or even "said by some to be." Doesn't change the premise.

I find it all problematic. I just find that part most interesting.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:57 am

A very good Clinton rally in Philly tonight.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:51 am

Trump announces endorsement from Tom Brady and reads letter written by Bill Belichick. Lucky for him he waited until a significant number of votes have already been cast. This might play in New Hampshire but elsewhere this is like invoking Charlie Manson and Jeffery Dahmer.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:16 am

Some funny comments passing around the Trump-Brady-Belichick stories (which btw given Brady's acknowledged friendship with Trump I would not be surprised if it were true). The one I liked, which might be old, is the fictional Trump quote from tomorrow evening: "“Mike Pence? He couldn’t even get elected Vice President! Sad.”

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:24 am

For those scared by the candidates on offer for the election, I have some great news

A MESSAGE FROM THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

In light of your failure to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately.
Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except North Dakota, which she does not fancy).
Our new Prime Minister, Theresa May, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

-----------------------
1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.' Likewise, you will learn to spell 'doughnut' without skipping half the letters, and the suffix '-ize' will be replaced by the suffix '-ise.' Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up 'vocabulary').

dstgolf · Post by **dstgolf** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:40 am

Welcome to the biggest day in Americas voting history. The donkey and the elephant have had a long battle and now the world is waiting who they'll be saddled with. Thank god I'm in the Dominican Republic enjoying ourselves with some good golf,better wine and even better laughs. I'm sure the TV will be cranked up tonight to catch a glimpse of what tomorrow will look like around the world. The markets will give a reflection today and tomorrow. Hang on tight should be a fun one but just remember you'll be holding your nose whomever gets in. Good Luck to my American friends.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:46 pm

Comey has to go. He was unprofessional, broke protocol, and acted against the recommendation of the AG in releasing his intentionally vague letter that was clearly designed to damage Clinton. I think she'll pull out the win, but Comey's meddling in the election is likely to keep the Republican majority in the Senate.

I predict he will be given the option to resign or be fired later this week, perhaps tomorrow.

And the NY FBI office needs to be investigated. The leakers need to be fired and, if they were colluding with the Trump campaign, prosecuted.

We can't go back to a J. Edgar Hoover FBI.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:04 pm

DavidG wrote:Comey has to go. He was unprofessional, broke protocol, and acted against the recommendation of the AG in releasing his intentionally vague letter that was clearly designed to damage Clinton. I think she'll pull out the win, but Comey's meddling in the election is likely to keep the Republican majority in the Senate.

I predict he will be given the option to resign or be fired later this week, perhaps tomorrow.

And the NY FBI office needs to be investigated. The leakers need to be fired and, if they were colluding with the Trump campaign, prosecuted.

We can't go back to a J. Edgar Hoover FBI.

I've been rethinking a bit on Comey resignation.
Perhaps he should be the one who cleans house in the FBI, with regular reports made in person directly to the new President.

JScott · Post by **JScott** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:31 pm

David, there was also the leak from the FBI to Clinton and the State Department prior to her Congressional appearance regarding Benghazi. My gut is that Comey's timing on all of this may actually help in a weird way. It's never great to have negative news (especially when there is not going to be a basis for it) the follow up Sunday that no charges would be brought is actually a positive right before the election. She will get a bump right at the most critical moment. I think the polls show that.

All of that said, I don't see a way Comey stays on. What a mess.