President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:38 pm

I don't think a president gets to fire an FBI director, does he?
Isn't it a ten year appointment?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:56 pm

I thought Clinton's speeches in the end, including in Philly last night, were uninspiring. She seems tired, not well.
I've got the jitters today. Maine school students across the state voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:25 pm

Blanquito wrote:My final:
323 Hillary (or Hil-liar-y as on the Arkansas ballot),
215 Donald

This very morning, Nate Silver has come around: "Our forecast has Clinton... totaling 323 electoral votes". He's clearly reading this thread and I have to commend his prediction, even if he was a bit slow to the finish.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:30 pm

Yes, as usual, he comes in after BWE.
I'm not feeling as confident about ME-2 as you guys.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:58 pm

I can't do electorals. Too much like algebra. But I will offer my take on the popular vote. C 52 T 44 G (the Gary guy) 2 S 1 O 1. Hawaii votes for C.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:20 pm

My completely unscientific gut feeling is that it will be closer than you're all predicting - Clinton vote under 50%, college under 300. And I still think a Trump victory is possible.

When can we expect exit polls from key states?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:29 pm

The first batch of states that close at 7 and 7:30pm will be mostly Republican, things will start to get interesting when the 8pm-closing east coast states like FL, NC, PA and NH close.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:40 pm

Raining here on "Maui" but we're used to it and it should not depress voter turnout.

Can Trump claim victory if Hillary receives less than 50.1% of the popular vote? I mean it's a compelling case, right? The logic goes like this: Hillary did not receive a majority of the popular vote, which means that more people voted against her than voted for her. That makes her disqualified to lead. Then, since Trump got the most votes that were cast against Hillary, he is clearly the peoples' choice. I think that makes a lot of sense.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:44 pm

Yeah,
That's the ticket!

tim · Post by **tim** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:04 pm

Yes, a President can fire an FBI director. Bill Clinton fired William Sessions.

tim · Post by **tim** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:06 pm

On another non-wine forum I predicted a Clinton win 308-230. I think she will lose NC but win FL.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:08 pm

Comey will do the right thing. He will step down as the result of two self-inflicted gunshot wounds to the head. This ritual is cherished by all who fail to live up to the high moral standards incident to relations with the Clintons. If you can't hang with them you must step out of the way with good grace.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:09 pm

I was wrong about the times on those poll closings, a lot of the action is gonna start in the 7pm EST hour.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:12 pm

JimHow wrote:I thought Clinton's speeches in the end, including in Philly last night, were uninspiring. She seems tired, not well.
I've got the jitters today. Maine school students across the state voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

I know those students. Voting twice, first near campus and then driving to MA and NH to vote again where their homes are. It's rigged, it's rigged.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:15 pm

JimHow wrote:I was wrong about the times on those poll closings, a lot of the action is gonna start in the 7pm EST hour.

OK, seriously, what's going to be your first and best "tell" at 7? Florida, NC?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 6:20 pm

No I'm talking grade school/high school.
It was like 60-40 for Trump.
Thousands of them!
Heaven help us.

I think at 6-7 you're gonna see states like Indiana and a couple other Republican states, and we are gonna start nervously looking at Trump's strength, or lack thereof, especially in key counties.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 7:24 pm

Trump is holding his celebration tonight at the Hilton Midtown which some BWEers will remember as BWE headquarters for NYC '03.

jal · Post by **jal** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:21 pm

In case anyone is wondering why the markets are rallying, the talk is that it's because of this site

http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election ... acker.html

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:23 pm

Go Florida Go!

jal · Post by **jal** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:28 pm

JimHow wrote:Go Florida Go!

Slate has her winning Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire

jal · Post by **jal** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:28 pm

I don't know how much I trust this methodology, though.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:30 pm

I will not be shocked if she wins Iowa and Ohio.
I came very close to putting both states in her column.

She won Guam big, slightly better than Obama beat Romney there in 2012.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:32 pm

Well, time to head out of the office and go set up BWE election command center at home….

Here we go.
Strap yourselves in, we are are in for quite a ride in the next 6 hours or so.

mek · Post by **mek** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:37 pm

Looking forward to the running commentary tonight. Politics is banned on the uk wine forum, so all quiet and restrained ( so far) across the pond.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:46 pm

I wouldn't be shocked if she prevails Ohio and Iowa, but based on the polling, I would be "quite surprised" if she wins Iowa, and to a lesser degree, Ohio. The final Des Moines Register poll had Trump up 7 points in Iowa.

If she wins Iowa, it suggests a pretty big polling miss against her, and as Nate Silver loves to point out, many states are highly correlated in how they vote, so a big miss in Iowa probably means they've the polls have underestimated Clinton in a number of Midwestern states too. Landslide?

Looking forward to your live blogging on the results tonight, BD.

Really, BWE should be making Facebook nervous.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:30 pm

Yes things were tightening in Iowa and there was a poll that even had Hillary +1 late in the week. Then that Des Moines Register poll came out that scared me off. Iowa has been a weird state this year. It has been a solid blue state in recent elections, I've been surprised it has never really been in play, with Trump consistently ahead.

BWE Election Central has been set up….

Gonna start off with Fox to see if I can detect any hints of trepidation.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:32 pm

We should start picking up some hints real soon, even in the early states that are gonna go for Trump.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:40 pm

63% of Fox News exit poll say the debates were "important" in helping determine their vote.
Only 45% think ObamaCare "went too far."

Those would seem to be favorable numbers for Hillary.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:47 pm

53% oppose the Wall.
Kellyanne looks sad.

The early vibe all seems in favor of Hillary.
However, that was a similar situation in 2004 when we all thought Kerry won.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:51 pm

JimHow wrote:The early vibe all seems in favor of Hillary.
However, that was a similar situation in 2004 when we all thought Kerry won.

Ouch. Too soon still, Jim. Some wounds never heal.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:57 pm

Have Beavis and Butthead voted yet?

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:03 pm

Someone call Donna. Sometimes she gets the answers in advance.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:06 pm

Per CNN:
Clinton team concerned about NC but feeling good about MI.
Boy NC has been a battle….

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:30 pm

Fox on line reporting "reliable" Democratic sources as saying there's trouble in Michigan, turnout is low in Flint and Detroit.

mek · Post by **mek** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:09 am

Georgia too close to call, must be troubling for Trump?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:11 am

What few results are in should be encouraging to Trump.

That's not unusual for them to say that, Maureen, the polls just closed ten minutes ago.
I'm concerned about how well Trump is holding serve in IN and KY.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:16 am

How are you feeling about your prediction, Jim?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:20 am

I just saw some good results in FL for Hillary, Phil, she's up significantly with 7% in.
Florida is crazy, of course, because the conservative areas go heavily Republican and the liberal areas go heavily Democratic.
So you see these wild swings.
Trump polled slightly less in a very conservative panhandle county in FL than did Romney, so that is like the first good news I've seen for Hillary tonight.
Still very early,
but a lot is gonna happen in the next hour and a half.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:24 am

CNN: SENIOR ADVISOR IN TRUMP CAMPAIGN SAYS IT WILL TAKE A "MIRACLE" TO WIN.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:26 am

Hill up in FL with 30% in….