President Trump

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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Nice summary of the race today vs the race at the same date in 2016 (with my emphasis added):
“ (CNN) — Poll of the week: A new national Fox News poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average of all polls taken at least partially this week have Biden up by a 48% to 41% margin.

What's the point: Almost any time I explain that Biden's leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up "but what about 2016." That's why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

It's one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed the national gap quickly with Clinton as he was vanquishing Republican rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential race. Clinton's average lead shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half in April to 4 points in the first half in May to a mere 1 point in polls completed four years ago between May 16-May 23.

In terms of individual high quality polls, you needn't look further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump by 3 points in a Fox News poll out four years ago between May 16-May 23. Now, Biden's up 8 points in that same poll.

Indeed, Clinton was also down in a high quality live telephone ABC News/Washington Post poll four years ago completed between May 16-May 23.


Biden notably hasn't trailed in a single live interview poll this entire year.

Although Clinton would regain some of her advantage in June 2016, the fact that the race became so close at this point four years ago was an indication that the electorate was somewhat unsettled. It showed that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally, or, at the very least, that Trump could come close enough nationally to win in the electoral college.

Biden's lead, of course, is the steadiest of all time. His lead has never fallen to just a point or anywhere close. It's been consistently at or right around 6 points, as it was this week. If you were to create a 95% confidence interval around the individual 2016 and 2020 polls, the 2016 race was about 1.5 times as volatile up to this point.

But it's not just the margin that is important to examine. Look at the vote percentages.

The reason Biden's lead is so wide compared to Clinton's is that he's running a little more than 5 points ahead of where Clinton was in terms of vote percentage. Biden is at slightly greater than 48%, while Clinton was a little less than 43%.

Even when Clinton's lead widened in June, she never got to 48% in the polls. She had to pick up a lot more late-deciding voters for her lead to feel secure than Biden will likely need to.

Interestingly, Trump's actually pulling about the same percentage of the vote in the polls as he was in late May 2016. Without rounding, he's running only about 0.4 points worse.

There were a lot of undecided or third party voters in late May 2016. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up to 89.5% of the vote on average. Clinton and Trump added to 84.9%.

Keep in mind, just some of the polls done four years ago completed between May 16-May 23 were including Libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. Focusing in on only those that did have him as a choice showed Clinton and Trump deadlocked at a little less than 39%. That is, Trump was tied with Clinton even as he had a lower share of the vote than he has in the 2020 polls right now. The major party nominees together added up to 77% in the polls that inquired about Johnson.

When the undecided and third party vote is high in the polls, it means greater uncertainty. Third party candidacies tend to deflate over the course of the election year. Combining the undecided and third party voter blocs gives major party candidates a larger pool to pick up voters from.

In other words, Trump had more wiggle room four years ago to pick up ground. And, in fact, Trump won on the strength of his support among voters who decided in the last month.

More Americans have already said they're willing to vote for Biden in the most likely general election matchup than they ever did of Clinton at any point in the final six months of that campaign.

The obvious question moving forward is whether Biden can keep up the pace. So far, he and his basement campaign have been up to the challenge”
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Nice summary of the race today vs the race at the same date in 2016 (with my emphasis added):

“(CNN) — Poll of the week: A new national Fox News poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average of all polls taken at least partially this week have Biden up by a 48% to 41% margin.

What's the point: Almost any time I explain that Biden's leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up "but what about 2016." That's why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

It's one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed the national gap quickly with Clinton as he was vanquishing Republican rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential race. Clinton's average lead shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half in April to 4 points in the first half in May to a mere 1 point in polls completed four years ago between May 16-May 23.

In terms of individual high quality polls, you needn't look further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump by 3 points in a Fox News poll out four years ago between May 16-May 23. Now, Biden's up 8 points in that same poll.

Indeed, Clinton was also down in a high quality live telephone ABC News/Washington Post poll four years ago completed between May 16-May 23.


Biden notably hasn't trailed in a single live interview poll this entire year.

Although Clinton would regain some of her advantage in June 2016, the fact that the race became so close at this point four years ago was an indication that the electorate was somewhat unsettled. It showed that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally, or, at the very least, that Trump could come close enough nationally to win in the electoral college.

Biden's lead, of course, is the steadiest of all time. His lead has never fallen to just a point or anywhere close. It's been consistently at or right around 6 points, as it was this week. If you were to create a 95% confidence interval around the individual 2016 and 2020 polls, the 2016 race was about 1.5 times as volatile up to this point.

But it's not just the margin that is important to examine. Look at the vote percentages.

The reason Biden's lead is so wide compared to Clinton's is that he's running a little more than 5 points ahead of where Clinton was in terms of vote percentage. Biden is at slightly greater than 48%, while Clinton was a little less than 43%.

Even when Clinton's lead widened in June, she never got to 48% in the polls. She had to pick up a lot more late-deciding voters for her lead to feel secure than Biden will likely need to.

Interestingly, Trump's actually pulling about the same percentage of the vote in the polls as he was in late May 2016. Without rounding, he's running only about 0.4 points worse.

There were a lot of undecided or third party voters in late May 2016. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up to 89.5% of the vote on average. Clinton and Trump added to 84.9%.

Keep in mind, just some of the polls done four years ago completed between May 16-May 23 were including Libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. Focusing in on only those that did have him as a choice showed Clinton and Trump deadlocked at a little less than 39%. That is, Trump was tied with Clinton even as he had a lower share of the vote than he has in the 2020 polls right now. The major party nominees together added up to 77% in the polls that inquired about Johnson.

When the undecided and third party vote is high in the polls, it means greater uncertainty. Third party candidacies tend to deflate over the course of the election year. Combining the undecided and third party voter blocs gives major party candidates a larger pool to pick up voters from.

In other words, Trump had more wiggle room four years ago to pick up ground. And, in fact, Trump won on the strength of his support among voters who decided in the last month.

More Americans have already said they're willing to vote for Biden in the most likely general election matchup than they ever did of Clinton at any point in the final six months of that campaign.

The obvious question moving forward is whether Biden can keep up the pace. So far, he and his basement campaign have been up to the challenge”
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Re: President Trump

Post by marcs »

Trump is toast, people. He was barely keeping his head above water in a boom economy but now he is done. It literally doesn't matter who the Democrats run or how they campaign. Biden is far ahead in the polls and we haven't even experienced the full economic and human fallout of what is happening.

P.S. actually looked around online betting sites the other day to see if there was a secure way of putting money on the Ds to win the election, but it looks like those sites are pretty skeevy in terms of actually getting your payoff. But I would put money down if I could.
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

marcs wrote:Trump is toast, people. He was barely keeping his head above water in a boom economy but now he is done. It literally doesn't matter who the Democrats run or how they campaign. Biden is far ahead in the polls and we haven't even experienced the full economic and human fallout of what is happening.

P.S. actually looked around online betting sites the other day to see if there was a secure way of putting money on the Ds to win the election, but it looks like those sites are pretty skeevy in terms of actually getting your payoff. But I would put money down if I could.
Put your money on Trump as a hedge, marcs. If he wins, you at least get some $$$$, if he loses, you'll be even happier.

BTW, I also think that's Jim's strategy with Blanquito LOL
Last edited by jal on Sun May 24, 2020 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

I have never wanted to be wrong more in my life, but I still say Orange is going to win it.
I acknowledge I could be playing mind games with myself.
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Tom In DC
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Re: President Trump

Post by Tom In DC »

That might be a new record for longest double post!

Nothing else to see here...keep moving along, folks...
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Uncle Joe looking pretty good tonight on CNN.
I wish he would wear glasses, he looks like he's had plastic surgery or something.
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Looks like another Republican held Senate could be in play:

South Carolina, May 23-26, 591 RV, Harrison 42%, Graham 42% — Tie

That’s 11 GOP-held senate seats that are either in the margin of error, tied or have the Dems ahead.

Look, we’ll all be shocked if McConnell or Graham or even Perdue actually lose, but the fact that so many Republican Senate seats, held by the party’s biggest names, are in play in deep red territory is a profound indication that the national environment has turned on the GOP and overall that control of the Senate is truly up for grabs.

If Graham, in SC!, is in a dog fight, that has to make Ernst and Collins and Tillis all the more anxious. In CO, Cory Gardner is so toast that it almost feels like he’s conceded already and the Democrats haven’t even nominated his opponent yet!
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

Yeah, Americans have a very very very short memory. Nevermind the tribalism even thicker than the blood...

Like I said before, the polls, the orange cockwomble, abuse of power, etc. ain’t gonna matter. The only thing matters for dems is the turnout. Data doesn’t vote....
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

I agree, turnout is absolutely key and Hillary lost not because Trump mobilized some major bloc of new MAGA voters but because she had a serious problem motivating her electorate to turnout.

But 2020 ain’t 2016, and no one can pretend Trump is something he isn’t at this point. I think Trump himself has provided all the motivation Biden will need to beat him.

That said, I am very worried what shenanigans Trump and the GOP are planning to suppress turnout in battleground states.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

Blanquito wrote:Looks like another Republican held Senate could be in play:

South Carolina, May 23-26, 591 RV, Harrison 42%, Graham 42% — Tie

That’s 11 GOP-held senate seats that are either in the margin of error, tied or have the Dems ahead.

Look, we’ll all be shocked if McConnell or Graham or even Perdue actually lose, but the fact that so many Republican Senate seats, held by the party’s biggest names, are in play in deep red territory is a profound indication that the national environment has turned on the GOP and overall that control of the Senate is truly up for grabs.

If Graham, in SC!, is in a dog fight, that has to make Ernst and Collins and Tillis all the more anxious. In CO, Cory Gardner is so toast that it almost feels like he’s conceded already and the Democrats haven’t even nominated his opponent yet!
I don’t even recognize Graham anymore. I thought he was a man of integrity, so to speak about nowadays politicians. I don’t know what gotten to him. He needs an exorcist to pull him out of the depths...

Demagoguery is infectious as it can get. So much so, everyone close to Orange head see it as normal, feel it as normal and practice it as normal.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

I don’t even recognize Graham anymore. I thought he was a man of integrity,
OMG, CV, really?
To me he is as bad as it comes, someone who ocassionally pretends moderation as he is stabbing the regular people in the nuts.
He is like the ultimate Washington sleazebag to me.
His phonyness is like Collins x 10, and that's saying a lot.
So he thinks Joe Biden is not a child molester. I'm supposed to give points to this douche?
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Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

JimHow wrote:
I don’t even recognize Graham anymore. I thought he was a man of integrity,
OMG, CV, really?
To me he is as bad as it comes, someone who ocassionally pretends moderation as he is stabbing the regular people in the nuts.
He is like the ultimate Washington sleazebag to me.
His phonyness is like Collins x 10, and that's saying a lot.
So he thinks Joe Biden is not a child molester. I'm supposed to give points to this douche?
You are right, Jim.

But I meant in terms of ‘nowadays politicians’.... it’s just comparative. He might be douchebag when it comes to most issues, but until few years ago, I did think he atleast stood for something for national security related issues. But not anymore and he is peddling russian conspiracy theories and what not. That’s what I meant in my previous post...
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Jim this might brighten your day:

A new poll of likely voters in Maine’s Senate election shows Gideon at 51%, Collins at 42%!

Only bad part is it’s from a pollster I’ve never heard of.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Too bad the election isn't being held today!

Did you read Karl Rove's article on Uncle Joe's dementia. It really does seem to be an issue.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-jo ... opin_pos_3
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Yes, Joe’s acuity is a real concern, though I’m unlike to take Turd Blossom’s opinion on it at face value.
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

I read the Karl Rove piece. Is Biden less coherent now than he was in the past? He always struck me as a bit unhinged.
Obviously, OrangeFace is completely off his rocker, but that's not the point.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

He made mince meat out of that little puke Paul Ryan in their debate.
Sarah Palin held her own against him but more because it was a surprisingly good performance by Sarah than a poor one by Joe.
He has definitely lost a step or two. I think the death of his son affected him.
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Re: President Trump

Post by AKR »

jal wrote:I read the Karl Rove piece. Is Biden less coherent now than he was in the past? He always struck me as a bit unhinged.
Obviously, OrangeFace is completely off his rocker, but that's not the point.
https://politics.theonion.com/shirtless ... 1819570732

Given that unemployment is 20%, cities are burning freely, and there's nothing but bad news as far as the eye can see, Biden could be a sock puppet and I don't think it'll hurt him in the election.

Hunkering down in his basement and letting Twitterstorm rage above him is a great plan.

If Trump loses bigly, it will always be part of his permanent record, he will never be able to use his bankruptcy tricks to wipe it out.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Claret »

Do we have a President? Clearly there is no leadership.

Enough burning and looting. The idiot is mute except for loot and shoot. Will there be shooting?

If the food chain gets seriously disrupted my doomsday tryptich will come thru sooner than later.
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

Some more hopeful poll summaries:
“Live telephone polls released in May: Monmouth - Biden +9, CNN - Biden +5, Fox - Biden +8, Q-Pac - Biden +11, ABC/WaPo - Biden +10... a very clear signal as to where the race is now...”

Hard to argue against Trump being in trouble.

It’s crazy that our president is clearly rooting for and encouraging bloodshed and chaos in our streets. What, does he hope for the pretense to declare martial law and send out the troops to “monitor” voting? Or is he just a sadistic loon?

But, but I hear there’s tons of fraudulent voting and that the election is rigged, so of course we need the military to “ensure” the vote.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

At risk of sounding like a troll, in all seriousness, I’m not as optimistic as you guys.
These polls will narrow dramatically by November.
I think these riots will help Trump, it will help him pull a Richard Nixon law and order routine, and Joe is going to be a weak candidate. Plus, the chaos will pull attention away from the pandemic. Didn’t see a lot of social distancing in the streets. Plus, Trump is not going to relinquish the office. He is either going to stop the election or not accept the results. As Roger Cohen said yesterday in his article, heck, he didn’t accept the 2016 results and he won! Trump has crossed completely into madness, he and Team Maga will do anything to win.
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

What worries me more than anything else is that his approval rating is barely down.
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Blanquito
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

jal wrote:What worries me more than anything else is that his approval rating is barely down.
Yes, this worries me for the future of our country more than almost anything else. Lucifer himself could be revealed to be the GOP president and he’d still reliably get a low 40’s approval rating. You can hear the Christian Right rationalizing their support even for the devil, “well, at least you know he believes in god!”
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

I still think the most likely outcome is a fairly normal vote occurs in Nov, Trump loses but by less than the polls suggest not due to bad polling but due to voter suppression and other such tactics (Barr declaring a criminal investigation into Biden in October when Trump realizes he’s going to lose?), but Trump still loses. Then he refuses to concede the election, and tries whatever he can to get it over turned (suing to the Supreme Court?) and if that fails, he then incites violence, locks himself in the White House, etc. Maybe the system provides resilient to this challenge, but it will be dark days.
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Re: President Trump

Post by jal »

I was watching Bill Maher this week and the scenarios one of his talking heads was hashing were:
Either:
The second wave of the virus is here in the fall
Blue states voters are either too scared to go vote or try to vote by mail (and we know the narrative behind this). Red states voters show up en masse, propelling him to victory.
Or:
The economy after the horrific 2nd and 3rd quarters recovers as it is bound to in the 4th quarter and OrangeFace policies get all the credit, propelling him to victory.

I long ago ran out of superlatives to describe the state of the nation since January 2017, the last few years were a nightmare but the past two months were even worse than anything I could ever imagine. AND it's getting even worse.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

It is cliche but never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.
I predicted violence, we can check that one off.
I predict assassination attempts, on one or both sides.
More violence coming, Maga vs. Antifa.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

More analysis of the advantage Biden has in the polls:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/31/poli ... ssion=true

My premise has been all along that (1) if democracy isn’t broken (meaning all forms of stealing and suppressing the vote don’t stop the will of the majority of voters), then (2) polls are very meaningful in seeing who’s likely to win, and given 1 and 2, then (3) Biden is looking good right now (and has been for nearly 18 months).

But 1 is key, and that’s my biggest source of concern. But folks were worried leading up to the 2018 mid terms that democracy was broken then too, and yet the Dems had a historically large victory.

Of course, the stakes are much higher for Trump now than in 2018, and given his track record, psychotic personality, a Republican Party which will do nothing to stop him no matter how outrageous his actions, and the crazy circumstances of pandemic, economic collapse, and rioting across the country’s cities, there’s no telling what lengths he’ll go to to subvert democracy.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Well, now it sounds like you're hedging your bet a little, Blanquito.
Democracy is of course broken, that's one of the main reasons why I'm still picking Orange.
Polls in May for a November election are completely meaningless.
Carter was up like 10 points on Reagan before the "There you go again" debate, and he got annihilated...
Carter was beating him 59-36 earlier in 1980:
https://theharrispoll.com/wp-content/up ... 980-01.pdf
In this same Washington Post poll that has Joe up by 10 points, he was up by just 2 points in March.
Hillary was cruising along just 10 days before the election until Comey and her pathetic campaign handed it to Orange.
We have an ETERNITY to go in this race.
I’ll start getting interested in polls around mid-October. Certainly not before Labor Day. This will be a vicious, sadistic campaign, the polls from May will be ancient history by the time the rubber hits the road and Orange and the Republicans start fighting for real in the fall.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Blanquito »

It’s hard to remember after the Access Hollywood tape, the debates, and then the Comey criminality, but just 6 weeks before the election, polls had Clinton v Trump effectively tied:
In the set of pre-debate polls, Clinton was barely ahead. Out of 67 polls, she led in 34, trailed in 29 and was tied with Trump in four. That’s why our model had Trump drawing the Electoral College almost — but not quite — to a tie before the debate. We had a lot of data, much of it from high-quality pollsters. Clinton’s leads in potentially must-win states, such as Pennsylvania and Colorado, were tenuous. And she wasn’t clearly ahead anywhere else, although Florida and North Carolina were tossups. It wasn’t quite enough to make Clinton an underdog, but it was getting close.” -Nate Silver

The 5 weeks leading up to Election Day that followed were then crazily volatile, with big swings back and forth, but the pre-debate polls captured just how even the race really was.

Trump might win. Of course. There could be more gotcha moments that erode Biden’s support and maybe he crashes and burns in the debates, maybe Trump’s oncoming negative barrage of media and attack ads make a dent, but it sure looks to me like Biden more likely to win than lose.

Four of the last five presidential elections have been very close, and Obama-McCain had tightened up a lot until the financial meltdown blew it open. Our default expectation should be close elections in an age of hyper partisanship. And the Reps have a built in advantage in the electoral college’s rural bias which gives them the pole position in tight elections. But despite all that, Trump is historically unpopular, he’s utterly botched the COVID response, and so I maintain all Biden has to do is turn out the voters and he should win.
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Re: President Trump

Post by marcs »

Hillary never at any point had the kind of large stable lead that Biden does now. Again, Trump is toast, people. Trump is NOT a fascist dictator, he is a narcissistic buffoonish incompetent. He is good at trolling, getting attention, and (charitably) a certain kind of crude direct communication. He has absolutely no ability to perform the management tasks associated with being an effective president and using the powers of the Federal government to address a complicated problem. Everything he has "accomplished" as president was just about letting existing interest groups in the Republican party run wild with their wish lists. Mitch McConnell, neoconservative foreign policy types, etc. Now the U.S. faces multiple immediate and pressing problems as complicated and thorny as any in our history and he is very clearly and obviously way out of his depth. This is already obvious and it will only become more obvious in the coming months. People will want him out even more than they do now. He's done.

Nor will elections be rigged. You need the full cooperation of the Republican party for that and by November the Republican party will be sick of Trump as well. Many already are, they're just afraid to say it. Also, it takes a certain baseline attention span and competence to rig elections and Trump doesn't have it. I'd be more worried about Senate race shenanigans because Mitch McConnell wants to still be majority leader and he is WAY more competent and effective than Trump.

I suppose the Democratic party could fuck this up if the civil unrest continues by appearing to be too blatantly on the side of rioters, but I really don't see that happening.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Chateau Vin »

Blanquito wrote: .
.
.
all Biden has to do is turn out the voters and he should win.
You nailed it in the last sentence, blanquito....

Now only Biden and more importantly, DNC can concentrate on that on war footing. :(

Because, data doesn’t vote... :o
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

One of my lawyer buddies is pretty right wing.
He's a really good guy but he's pretty right wing, voted for Orange in 2016.
He just posted on his Facebook page:

I supported Trump in 2016. His response to the death of George Floyd is absolutely the end of the line. This year I'll use my vote and my time to send a message that neither the asshole Trump nor the asshole Biden are acceptable choices to lead the country. I'll be volunteering for the presidential campaign of Libertarian nominee Dr. Joanne Jorgensen.

Come Nov. 3rd I wonder if he will stick to what he says.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

Trump orchestrates a speech promising to "protect peaceful protesters" at the exact moment he orchestrates an attack by the U.S. military on peaceful protesters.
This is something George Orwell couldn't even think up.
And we're still five months from election day.
You guys can underestimate him if you want, I'm not.
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

So much for the pandemic, by the way.
Haven't seen a lot of social distancing the last few days.
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

JimHow wrote:He's a really good guy but he's pretty right wing,
so your buddy knows "someone" is an asshole. I wonder if he'll ever figure out who that really is... :roll:
I am so over being friendly with thoughtless liars and assholes who believed Trump could be their savior.
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Racer Chris
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Re: President Trump

Post by Racer Chris »

JimHow wrote:So much for the pandemic, by the way.
Haven't seen a lot of social distancing the last few days.
I'm sure Trump likes that at least.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

The old tail wagging the dog trick.
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DavidG
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Re: President Trump

Post by DavidG »

JimHow wrote:One of my lawyer buddies is pretty right wing.
He's a really good guy but he's pretty right wing, voted for Orange in 2016.
He just posted on his Facebook page:

I supported Trump in 2016. His response to the death of George Floyd is absolutely the end of the line. This year I'll use my vote and my time to send a message that neither the asshole Trump nor the asshole Biden are acceptable choices to lead the country. I'll be volunteering for the presidential campaign of Libertarian nominee Dr. Joanne Jorgensen.

Come Nov. 3rd I wonder if he will stick to what he says.
The only positive spin to this that I can see is that we still allow brain-damaged people to vote.
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JimHow
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Re: President Trump

Post by JimHow »

This was a new low tonight.
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