President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:53 am

The American Way.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:25 pm

Another bunch of strong polls for Biden.

One polling tidbit that could be significant:
“...Trump's comeback in 2016 was made considerably easier by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton wasn't polling close to 50%. The average live interview poll taken in June 2016 (when Libertarian Gary Johnson was included) had Clinton at a mere 42%. Not a single one of those polls had her even touching 50%. In fact, she never got close to 50% in the average of polls during the rest of the campaign.

Biden, meanwhile, reached at least 50% in three live interview polls this past week (ABC News/Washington Post, Monmouth University and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College).”
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/07/poli ... ssion=true

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:06 pm

A wonderful statistic from NBC /WSJ Poll

Do you wear a mask outside the home

Overall. Biden. Trump

Always 63%. 66%. 26%

Sometimes. 21% 30% 62%

Never. 15%. 7%. 83%

stupid is as stupid votes.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:37 pm

My worry now is that the Dems blow it by pushing an agenda of disarming private citizens, defunding police and slavery reparations.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:08 pm

I put the How Quotient ("HQ") -- the percentage chance of Trump winning re-election -- at .58 on 6/8/20.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:10 pm

Which I think is about what the wiseguys in Vegas have him at, no? Perhaps I've got him slightly higher than Las Vegas.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:13 pm

Just checked, I see the European sportsbook has Joe passing him in the past week for the first time, but you've gotta assume that will reverse after the George Floyd controversy subsides.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:23 pm

Nasdaq at a record high today.

OrlandoRobert · Post by **OrlandoRobert** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:52 pm

JimHow wrote:Nasdaq at a record high today.

#MAGA

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:04 pm

Comte Flaneur wrote:My worry now is that the Dems blow it by pushing an agenda of disarming private citizens, defunding police and slavery reparations.

Minneapolis city council just voted to disband their police dept.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:08 pm

The HQ is .58 right now, i predict it will be right at about .50 by election day.
It is going to be another barn burner.
Things would be a lot more manageable for the Dems, OB, if we could just get FLA in the fold.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:57 pm

What I'm following closely is the Republican senate candidates.
Those ruthless bastards are still hanging their hat on Orange.
You can give me all these generals, blah, blah, blah, it is the politicians who are on the ground and who know what's what.
And they know it is in their best interests to stick with the big orange Donald.
If it were anything otherwise these rats would abandon ship like the vermin-infested rodents that they are.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:59 am

Jim, you should not speak so badly of vermin-infested rodents.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:45 am

I see we have an election disaster today in Georgia.
Surprise, suprise.
OMG are we in for a catastrophe in November. It is going to be a perfect storm.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:55 am

Tommy tells us that voting by mail is the way to go in Colorado.
And I can see where it might work in high brow states like Colorado, Washington, Oregon, etc.
Personally, I think the Democrats have opened up a can of worms on this whole vote by mail issue.
It is going to give Orange a big opportunity to delegitimize the vote in Michigan and elsewhere.
They should be focusing instead on why minorities STILL, incredibly, year after year, have to wait 8 hours to vote.
How can this POSSIBLY still be happening in 2020?
Good grief.
I was elected to office as far back as 1987, I have voted every year without having to wait more then ten minutes in line, WTF is wrong with you people out there in the rest of the country? In Florida, Georgia, and all these stupid f-ing states? What is wrong with you? How do you allow this to happen, year, after year, after year????
Why have I NEVER had a problem voting in Maine? Or anyone else that I am aware of, for that matter, in the 40+ years I have been voting?
I voted for Jimmy Carter by absentee ballot in 1976.
It took 10 minutes.
Why do people STILL have to wait 8 hours to vote in these crazy southern states?
Can't we just secede from you stupid fucking idiots?
Jesus H. Christ, what is wrong with you nimrods????

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:12 am

Except all BWEers who live in the south, of course, you are beacons of democracy in a reign of kind and benevolent dictatorship....

Claret · Post by **Claret** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:14 am

Today's Tweet and total disregard for humanity and common sense is a glaring example of his psychosis. No way he stays.

Yesterday in Fallon, NV a small town which features Naval Air Station Fallon, aka Top Gun, they were many more BLM protesters than rednecks across the street, even a few packing guns and copious amounts of ammo. When the KKK white hoodies came they all chased them away and hugged, at least one pair of them.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:19 am

We really need astronaut Kelly to win out there in Arizona.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:27 am

This business of your signature having to match in mail-in ballots.
Who thought of this shit? How is this not a massive invitation for deligitimization of the vote?
My signature never looks the same. Signatures are like snowflakes, no two are the same.
Orange Head and his fascist Republican henchman are going to have a field day against the Democratic snowflakes on this isue, which will ultimately be decided by federal ultra right wing judges in federal courts across the land.
You should see what is happening up here in the second congressional district in Maine, Trump signs are EVERYWHERE, just like in 2016.
I have yet to see a sign or any presence whatsoever from Dementia Joe.
it is stunning to me how pathetic the Democratic Party leadershp is, year after year.

After what I've seen this week in Maine and in today's travesty in Georgia, plus the strength in the Nasdaq, I am RAISING the HQ to 59.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:35 am

Dave Wasserman:
“Imagine an election meltdown like today's in Georgia, except in November (with twice the turnout rate), in a state poised to tip the presidential race & where non-white turnout is poised to decide the winner.”

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:44 am

As Scotty used to say on Star Trek: "She can't take much more, captain."
Our democracy is now breaking at the fault lines that have been developing for about 30+ years.
It is truly not hyperbole to say that November 3rd will determine whether we keep our heads above water or whether we drown into the deep depths of fascism.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:10 pm

I agree Jim, and I think/hope that if there's clear evidence of malfeasance that the American public won't let the Supreme Court decide the election again. I expect there would be lots of violent protests were that to happen and then who knows what where things could go after that? Does the military then back Trump? Do armed rightwing militias start taking to the street? Will it be police force v police force? If this sounds like a recipe for the start of something like a civil war, well then I guess is it.

Frankly, I have been thinking since the late 90's of writing an essay entitled, "Lincoln got it wrong". He should have freed the slaves and then let the Confederacy leave, to inevitably sink into banana republic status.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:34 am

(((Harry Enten)))@ForecasterEnten
“Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad”

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:22 am

What were these expert forecasters saying 4 years ago?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:02 am

Well, 538 gave Trump a roughly 1 in 3 chance of winning on the eve of the election. Most other pollster had it more like 1 in 10, so I give 538 credit. And they are saying they should have relied more on the polls in 2016, not less, and the polls in 2020 are telling a very strong story for now.

If the election were tomorrow, Trump would be doomed even with the problems caused by social distancing, voting machine snafus, and the standard outright Republican voter suppression tactics.

Unfortunately, we have to wait just under 5 more months and pray the lead holds.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:54 am

Four years ago forecasters quite accurately predicted the national vote - predicting Clinton would win the popular vote by 4% points, she ended up winning by 2% points, but they got the swing states wrong.

I think the key variable to watch is Trump’s popularity/approval rating. At 45% or above he is very dangerous and can easily win the electoral college. His best chance is for the economy to reopen successfully and if this racial violence subsides.

But I don’t think it will anytime soon. Here in Blighty the far right is mobilising today defend our statues. And Russian trolls are egging them on. We could get a very ugly summer of racial violence.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is ... ent-trump/

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:22 pm

I agree, Comte. My stance all along has been about the basics— no incumbent running for a second term has ever been re-elected with net disapprovals as bad a Trump: LBJ and Ford (sort of, they’re not perfect examples as neither were a traditional incumbent and at the 11th hour LBJ didn’t even run in part because of his low approval), Carter, and Bush the Elder all had net approvals pretty much right where Trump’s are and they all lost.

We can get lost in the weeds of Likely Voter screens, the rural bias in the Electoral College, Trump’s “genius”, Biden’s age, etc., but the starting point of the election is simple: Trump is a historically unpopular and its getting worse fast, and he’s running against a moderate Democrat who is much more popular than Hillary ever was.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:40 pm

For fun/boredom, I worked up YouGov's tracking poll numbers since last September of the presidential contest between Trump and Biden. To show any trend, I plotted the individual polls (dots) with a moving average line (black solid) and just a simple linear fit (blue dashed). Despite everything that's happened since September -- Trump getting caught blackmailing Ukraine, his subsequent impeachment, Biden emerging victorious from the primary, the coronavirus and accompanying economic collapse, and the stop-police-brutality demonstrations -- it sure looks like a stable trend. Maybe Biden's grown a small 1-2 point edge since the coronavirus started and clearly Biden bottomed-out when he looked to be losing to Bernie in the primary. Other than that?
Here's Biden's lead since then (he hasn't trailed once):

: Picture1.png (57.43 KiB) Viewed 1312 times

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:42 pm

And if you are winning, a stable race is a good thing.

This is just one pollster, so it's best used for trends rather than absolute margins (many other pollsters with better track records than YouGov give Biden a much bigger lead currently).

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:24 pm

"Coronavirus task force fades from view as Trump White House moves on..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz

Here come the MAGA rallies.

Your academic analysis is academically sound, Blanquito, except one thing... You underestimate the "genius" of Orange Head. He is a monster, a Godzilla, that blows all academic analysis away....

HQ drops to 58 today with the drop in the stock market, but of course it can rise 1800 points tomorrow, so I'm not giving the one-point drop a lot of significance.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:26 pm

(By the way, when the HQ drops under 50, that means Dementia Joe is winning.)

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:30 pm

I've been doing some analyzing of my own.
I think Pennsylvania is going to play a big role here.
I'm surprised Uncle Joe is only winning by 4 points there.
Any path to victory for Orange requires a win in PA.
Orange can lose MI, but he MUST win PA.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:33 pm

We should have a friendly wager on this, Jim. Just under 5 months before the election, are you ready to step up and put your judgment on the line here? I’m taking Biden, you’re at Trump HQ58 (do I get odds?).

What should be wager? Something fun. How about the loser pays for dinner and brings an 89 Lynch Bages?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:35 pm

Well....
I have to think about this, because of course I'm hoping YOU win in a landslide....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:37 pm

But...
okay...
It is a deal....
If I "win," I'll have the consolation of a 1989 Lynch Bages dinner.
If I "lose," I'll have the consolation that democracy has been saved....

Okay... I accept the bet!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:39 pm

It’s on!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:41 pm

The focus should be on Pennslyvania.
How the hell can Joe only be winning by 4 points in his backyard, after ALL that has been going down?
I mean, we are in catastrophe here, how is Orange not polling at like 15%?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:43 pm

Orange Head... Will he be the next Harry Truman?*
Stay tuned.

*HST: My worst president in American history, by the way, until, ironically, Orange Head.

marcs · Post by **marcs** » Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:14 am

Damnit, I was the one who first mentioned wanting to bet on the election in this thread! And now Pat will get an 89LB out of it and I get nothing? At least maybe a dinner invite?

Biden will win in November, the question is what kind of a country he will take over. And how long he can last before the encroaching senility takes over completely — his VP choice is going to be the most important in American history

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:08 am

Man I admire you guys for your confidence, I am simply not there yet.
I’m like the Atlanta Falcons when it was 28-3 in the Super Bowl, and some of them on the Falcons sideline said, yeah, but THEY got Tom Brady.
Yeah, we’re winning at halftime, but they got a political monster like nothing we have ever seen.