President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:54 pm

Lol. The cancel culture encroaches on BWE.
I’m entitled to my opinion, Marcus, and you are entitled to yours.
And I don’t have to “bet” to justify it.
As I’ve said a million times, I pray that you guys are right and that I am wrong.
As the very title to this thread indicates, I predicted Orange Head’s victory more than a year before the election in 2016, while the know it alls laughed.
I actually watched the whole nearly two hour speech in Tulsa, and, yes, suffered through some follow up on Fox afterwards, not just get nuggets fed to me by CNN and MSNBC.
He was absolutely rabid. Great piece in the NYT today on what happens when a would-be autocrat becomes desperate:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/opin ... e=Homepage

His Tulsa speech was vile, but we have become a vile, failed state.
If the events of the past three months tell us anything, things can twist up and down another dozen times between now and November 3rd.
I hope and pray my HQ gets under 50 by Election Day, but at this snapshot in time I am still “betting” that Trump wins. And I know you in the Beltway think that’s crazy, but it was just like a month or two ago that Las Vegas had him up, not just some hick country lawyer from the second congressional district of Maine. That could easily shift again. Throw in voter suppression shenanigans and it is not out of the realm of possibility. For the sake of the future of the world, I pray I’m wrong.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:41 am

On the other hand, as I have also said before, it is not my intention to hurt people’s feelings or create bad will on BWE so if that is the case perhaps we should terminate this thread and stick to just writing about wine.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:56 am

I heard this morning that a majority of younger voters want Elizabeth Warren to be Biden's running mate.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:45 pm

On an entirely different note, Singapore will soon have a break to its dynasty.
Since forming in 1965, there have only been three PM's - Lee Kwan Yew (LKY) and his son, Lee Hsien Loong (LHL) held the job for 41 years, and Goh Chok Tong for 14 (Dec 1990 to Aug 2004).
Now, you may think that with Goh as PM, there was a break to the dynasty. Nope. Not even close.
Until LKY died in 2015, he was "Minister Mentor" and Goh himself was tutored by LKY. I am sure you get the picture.

Now, I actually have a lot of respect for LKY and to some extent, the other two, but I also have a lot of respect for democracy and it is a complete failure here.
LKY was such a dominant figure that no effective opposition party has ever existed. And I cannot see it happening for a long time.
When I do hear something from an opposition member (there is no one opposition party, rather, a loose collection of disparate small parties) it is about as interesting to listen to as a K-pop band.

So the election is on 11 July and LHL isn't going to continue with the job due to health issues. His existing Deputy will become PM (Heng Swee Keat). Not sure if he will be another clone but I have not given up hope.
I guess though that at only 58, he'd be considered too young to run in the USA in 2020.....

I do have to say that I am shaking my head in disbelief and dismay at HK lately.
China is doing everything to crush it.

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:58 pm

Racer Chris wrote:I heard this morning that a majority of younger voters want Elizabeth Warren to be Biden's running mate.

Warren is 73 or 74. We need a new generation in government at top levels. I don't like that the choice may well be decided on race but our country is so crazy and divided now that the norms are out the window.

marcs · Post by **marcs** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:12 pm

Jim, I think you misunderstood the intent of my post. It was not to fault you for your political views but was an attempt to goad you into actually making a bet with me on the election. I would like to at least get some Cristal out of my rock-solid advance knowledge that Biden will win. This may be the politics thread but my focus is not on politics but on getting more wine for free.

At the very least, can we agree that you are not allowed to say that you are "betting" on a Trump victory unless you are bold enough to actually make a real bet on it?

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:03 pm

Marcus, this is Jim's way of psychologically preparing for the worst.

That said, I remain very concerned that it will get a LOT closer by November, and that Trump will pull some voter suppression crap to insure his re-election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:21 pm

Marcus, this is Jim's way of psychologically preparing for the worst.

I think that's a fair statement!

My comments here are intended as irreverent, toungue in cheek, over-exaggerated, loud, etc. They are not intended to insult or hurt anyone's feelings. I hope they are taken with a grain of salt. We are in a real mess in this country, and we couldn't have a worse mess at the helm. When I say he does "great" in a speech I mean he is most effectively appealing to the worst elements in our society.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:43 pm

I suspect a great deal of DJT's rage comes from the fact that as POTUS his ability to conduct lurid affairs is heavily constrained. The secret service is undoubtedly not letting trashy washed up models into his bedroom, and if so, Melania is sure to find out. So Im sure in that dimension he finds this to be a terrible job with unfair scrutiny.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:12 am

>>
The secret service is undoubtedly not letting trashy washed up models into his bedroom
>>

So "letting in trashy washed up models" is no longer part of the job description for the SS?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:00 am

stefan wrote:>>
The secret service is undoubtedly not letting trashy washed up models into his bedroom
>>

So "letting in trashy washed up models" is no longer part of the job description for the SS?

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:44 pm

Latest Economist projection gives Biden an almost overwhelming lead in both popular vote and electoral college as of now. Let's have the election tomorrow.

Chance of winning
the electoral college

Joe Biden
Democrat
around 5 in 6
or 85%

Trump 1 in 6 or 14%

Popular vote

Biden 97% chance

Trump 3%

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:12 pm

That really worries.

The Economist is almost always wrong.

It is a reliable reverse indicator.

I am worried now.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:11 pm

“Biden has about a 10-point lead. Hillary Clinton or Obama never had average leads that big, and it’s the biggest lead at ~4 months out since Bill Clinton was up 12 in ‘96. Biden’s the only candidate besides Nixon ‘72 & Reagan ‘84 to avg above 50% at this point.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bi ... disappear/

Of course, this is just based on polls, you know, silly things like data, evidence, social science. So feel free to disregard.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:07 pm

I refuse to be swayed by your well-reasoned optimism Patrick. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Or something like that.

If only polls were as immutable as the laws of thermodynamics and social science as reliable as trigonometry. I am not surprised that Trump has increased entropy to near the point of total chaos as he angles for another term.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:10 pm

Oh I agree, David. I’m worried (but increasingly less so), but that due as much to emotion as logic. Except for the really close ones (00, 16), even blowout elections only seem/feel obvious in retrospect. And Trump is very unpredictable and unscrupulous, so who knows what stunts he and his foreign state sponsors will pull.

But whatever their very real limitations, polls ARE the most objective measure we have of where an election stands now and are the best predictor of how the election will turn out. I’m sure you agree.

Gut reactions, impressions, instinct, etc are often just so far off the mark even by the pundits. It’s like expert reactions to debates, where they’re sure one candidate “won” but then the post debate polls and focus groups show that the electorate had a totally different take.

Take Trump’s speech in Tulsa. I didn’t watch it, but Jim was very impressed (and alarmed) by it. Yet now outside the Fox News bubble, the consensus seems to be that it was a disaster for Trump on every level.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:57 pm

John Bolton was interviewed on Channel Four News here tonight. He is not holding back in dishing the dirt. Surely that must hurt Orange Head. The arch conservative icon of the Right launching into Trump? My impression is that Bolton is relishing it and is one person who will not be intimidated by DJT.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:26 pm

“Biden has about a 10-point lead. Hillary Clinton or Obama never had average leads that big, and it’s the biggest lead at ~4 months out since Bill Clinton was up 12 in ‘96. Biden’s the only candidate besides Nixon ‘72 & Reagan ‘84 to avg above 50% at this point.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bi ... disappear/

Of course, this is just based on polls, you know, silly things like data, evidence, social science. So feel free to disregard.

So you are relying on science and reason to predict how the American public is going to vote in November.

Hmmm. Interesting.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:32 pm

Take Trump’s speech in Tulsa. I didn’t watch it, but Jim was very impressed (and alarmed) by it. Yet now outside the Fox News bubble, the consensus seems to be that it was a disaster for Trump on every level.

The consensus outside the Fox bubble.... Yes, if you listen to the mainstream media, it was a "disaster" for Orange Head.

I was indeed "impressed" with the speech. He had a rage like nothing I've seen from him, and we've seen some pretty impressive anger and rage from him and his supporters. I tried to imagine feeble Joe on a debate stage with him, and I trembled at the thought.

If the election were to be held next Tuesday, Joe would win. How about I agree with you that much?

Unfortunately, the analysis can't be limited to that imaginary scenario.

marcs · Post by **marcs** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:43 pm

The problem is that people have never come to grips with how and why Trump won in 2016. His win in 2016 didn't happen because he was a magician. It was predictable and made sense and was very close. Unlike 2016, there is no reason why he would win this year, literally every factor points to a big Biden victory. Trump does not have magic powers, he is not a scary voodoo person from the beyond who defies natural laws, he is vulnerable to unpopularity and horrible performance just like anyone else and he is going to lose. With that said, there are months till the election, maybe Biden self-immolates on live TV. Even that might not do it.

Again, anyone thinking Trump will win needs to put their wine where their mouth is and make a bet with me. I will give you odds and everything.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:10 am

I feel a little better when you guys tell me there’s no monster hiding under the bed. I still worry about the monster out in the open.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:33 am

I caught the last half hour of Orange Head’s interview on Hannity tonight.
He was “brilliant.” Calm. Likeable. Dare I say it... Presidential.
You will NOT see this reported in the mainstream media.
I’m telling you, folks, you can have your polls.
You are insane if you underestimate this dude.
I strongly urge you to get out of your comfort zone, watch a little Fox one evening per week, listen to a little right wing hate radio one or two afternoons if you’re done with your NYT editorial page and wine and cheese.
Come hang out with us stupid folk for a while... You might learn something.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:04 am

JimHow wrote:...
Come hang out with us stupid folk for a while... You might learn something.

What I've learned is that people like Trump and Hannity can convince them to believe some really stupid sh!t.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:59 pm

I feel like reading this thread gives me about a much right wing nonsense as I can handle.

jal · Post by **jal** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:24 pm

Blanquito wrote:I feel like reading this thread gives me about a much right wing nonsense as I can handle.

I hear you Patrick but that's the wrong way to go about it. Better to engage and debate.

The internet in general and social media in particular have made us all into an echo chamber. Algorithms are pushing us to read only stuff we identify with as opposed to both sides of the debate. Soon I won't be able to agree with anyone at all and will be able to talk only to myself.

My feeling is that there are a lot of Trump supporters out there who will not say outright they will vote for him but will do so come Election Day. I also heard from one old guy on TV last week: "What choice do I have?"

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:28 pm

Mary Trump's psychological assessment of DJT is being published soon.

Her professional opinion concurs with mine.

Her family member is, clinically speaking, nuts.

Yes I know everyone thinks their family is crazy.

He is rotating in and out of lucidity, and the bouts of rage are all quite normal as the mental faculties deteriorate.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:39 pm

Ha I am the most left wing participant in this thread.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:20 pm

jal wrote:
Blanquito wrote:I feel like reading this thread gives me about a much right wing nonsense as I can handle.
I hear you Patrick but that's the wrong way to go about it. Better to engage and debate.

The internet in general and social media in particular have made us all into an echo chamber. Algorithms are pushing us to read only stuff we identify with as opposed to both sides of the debate. Soon I won't be able to agree with anyone at all and will be able to talk only to myself.

My feeling is that there are a lot of Trump supporters out there who will not say outright they will vote for him but will do so come Election Day. I also heard from one old guy on TV last week: "What choice do I have?"

I agree with jacques, and I humbly implore blanquito to engage and debate, how much ever painful it might be.

I would add faux news/msnbc channels to jacques’ list of social media bane that drove people into tribalism. They have been doing it long before social media came onto the scene, and social media, with their algorithms, has only hastened the split among the people to the level we haven’t seen before...

Like I mentioned before, I have been to many hinterlands, rural areas and to the so called ‘trump country’, and I can see why they would vote for that douche bag...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:03 am

I was watching some Jon Stewart inerviews tonight. I'm not a big Jon Stewart guy. I know some people think he is the second coming. Fairly intelligent guy, I just don't find him very funny. About a 3 on a scale of ten. I was watching on YouTube an interview he did with Christiana Amanpour a couple years ago, mocking and laughing how he felt the night Orange came down the escalator. This was a joke, right? I too thought it was a joke. I recall praying that Sarah would jump into the race, and that the Republican Party was completely imploding. And then, I'll never forget it, watching his first speech, wherever it was, and I remember saying to myself... Hmmmm.

And after that night, and all that has happened since, I cannot underestimate this dude. He is relentless. He is a terminator. Please, guys, don't underestimate this joker. I'm living here in the second (northern) congressional district in Maine, I predict he will win again up here. Trump signs are EVERYWHERE. I have yet to see one of Joe's.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:04 am

Guys
I have been a qualified psychologist for nearly 40 years. I am still registered in Australia though never bothered here in Singapore. I studied business for many years after that.
To say that Trump is nuts does not mean anything in any rational way. No, I am not protecting him one bit.
The guy can be better seen as a narcissist who over-reacts emotionally at times, and thinks he knows more than he does. But in 2020, that is pretty common.
Yes, there are gaffes and stupid things he says and does. Some can be rather funny, others painful.
But at least he has not invaded any countries and actually made an attempt (albeit not great) at resolving the threat of North Korea. Which realistically, is more likely to blow itself up than anyone else.
And as far as China goes, it has NEVER honoured any agreements made over trade rules and gives the middle finger to anyone who mentions it. That pissed off Trump and that is actually a rational reaction for a change.
I studied China's trade negotiations for some years by the way. It has been one case after another of broken promises, and at no point did China ever bother to put in place any systems or processes to enact them internally.
I won't go on about it, but there have been thirty odd years of lies and deception and huge errors by the west, who wanted to bring China into the world trading community (and hopefully drive political change).

Currently I really think Trump is a pretty good caricature of modern politics. And I don't just mean the US.

So you have a choice later this year of:
A) An erratic and reactive narcissist
B) An old Democrat who is clearly suffering from cognitive impairment - memory loss, confusion, etc. He has had aneurysms and brain tumors (glioma) in the past and his mental states will almost certainly get worse.

We are in election cycle here in Singapore, though the situation is different as the ruling party has been in power since Singapore was formed in 1965 and it has been a dynasty. There is NO effective opposition. Never has been.
So at least you have a choice, but it seriously isn't such a great selection.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:34 am

Claudius2 wrote:
So you have a choice later this year of:
A) An erratic and reactive narcissist
B) An old Democrat who is clearly suffering from cognitive impairment - memory loss, confusion, etc. He has had aneurysms and brain tumors (glioma) in the past and his mental states will almost certainly get worse.

And this is just one reason why we have to worry, polls be damned. The Rs have already got the public believing that Biden's cognitive functioning is inferior to Trump's.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:54 am

David,
Does Biden have a history of drinking too much?
His appearance and mental states remind me of a lot of old alcoholics who were clients many years ago.
They have bad skin, an emaciated, somewhat jaundiced face, and facial lesions that never seem to heal.
The short term memory loss, confusion and sometimes spiky, aggressive remarks again remind me of an alcoholic.
I know Trump is called orange man but seriously, Biden looks like he is on life support lately.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:26 pm

Mark,

Did you watch Biden's healthcare speech a few days ago? Compare that, not the selectively collected clips highlighting his stuttering and his deliberate compensating tactics to any of the readily available clips of Trump from sites that actually support him. Then tell me who you think is actually cognitively impaired.

This Biden dementia baloney is reminiscent of the Hilary neurological problem propaganda put forth 4 years ago. A board certified neurologist I know was diagnosing her off of selected clips, some of which were later shown to be altered. When I see this happening I call it out. It’s particularly dangerous when someone with real or presumed medical credentials falls for it.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:19 am

David
I do get your point, and no, I did not watch the clip you refer to.
I DO try and watch entire clips and not the doctored stuff on Youtube (or elsewhere) - either of Trump or Biden.
I have to say I rapidly get bored listening to Trump and sometimes shake my head, especially his handling of the Covid-19 virus.

I do have to say that Biden does not look healthy and if you check his history, he has had a brain tumour removed, which is in itself pretty serious.

On a different note the local PM (the son of the late Lee Kwan Yew) is not re-standing for the role after the election next month.
And he is "only" 68.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:21 pm

The Trump campaign is running some pretty brutal ads against Joe on the dementia issue.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:52 am

And many will believe them. I’ve seen no credible non-manipulated evidence that Biden is demented by any metric I’m familiar with, and I’m familiar with quite a few of them. And he did not have a brain tumor. He had a berry aneurysm (2 actually), which can rupture and lead to a fatal hemorrhage. His did not burst, it leaked. It was fixed and he recovered without permanent residual neurological damage. Sadly, facts matter less than whatever propaganda can be fed to an increasingly gullible public.

I’m not saying Biden is as sharp as he was 10 or 20 years ago. Who is, past 50 or so. Experience and knowledge acquired over a lifetime count for a lot towards competence even as we lose some of our quickness. He’s got that in spades.

In contrast,Trump often demonstrates disorganized thinking and perseveration. Some of the repetitiveness may be attributable to campaign rhetoric and speaking style, but he often loses his train of thought, can’t finish sentences, and outright confabulates.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:00 am

Fairness and honor and truth, of course, have nothing to do with modern American politics.

Godzilla is coming, folks. Brace yourselves for a tsunami.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:31 am

Jim
Godzilla???

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:15 pm

I equate Orange Head to a political Godzilla, Claudius, and I’m not even joking about that.

Claudius2 · Post by **Claudius2** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:19 pm

Jim
Okay I get the point.
We are in election cycle here in Singapore but I don't even get to vote.
Many electorates are not even being contested. Just one candidate. Sigh.....