President Trump

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:27 pm

Whoa, the How Quotient has flipped!

I still worry about that "legitimate" qualifier. He's ramping up the Trumpstapo, interfering with the USPS' ability to handle the volume if there's a large mail-in vote, announcing that mail-in ballots will be fake, and suggesting that he won't accept the election results if he's not the winner.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:34 pm

Watch how the Republican senators act, that will tell us a lot. They are showing hints of breaking.
A loooong way to go.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:46 pm

JimHow wrote:Watch how the Republican senators act, that will tell us a lot. They are showing hints of breaking.
A loooong way to go.

What is the current Collins HWQ?*

*Hand-Wringing Quotient

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:28 am

I don't see Collins losing.
It's going to take a historic national wave election to wipe out entrenched pols like Collins.
I still see 2020 as a nail biter in the end.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:00 pm

What’s going on in Portland is the scariest thing I’ve seen in American politics and governance in my lifetime. Coming to a city near you!

Part of what scares me is that lack of shock and outage at this flagrant assault on our freedom and democracy.

Maybe the 60’s were this close to unraveling, but it feels more like the 30’s to me. Trump’s Brown Shirts have arrived.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:43 pm

It looks like Beirut or something up there. A couple of summers ago I was flying in/out of Portland every other weekend (family was summering nearby) and it seemed like an ok city, kind of grungey/hipstery, the kind where old industrial spaces had been turned into microbreweries etc.

At this point it seems crazy that there is no dusk to dawn curfew.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:37 pm

There are some run down parts in Portland, but given all of the wonderful things it has going for it -- incredible food scene, quirky-artsy-creative populace, great live entertainment, beautiful vistas (at least in summer), some really cool architecture and parks, ready access to Oregon coasts-mountains-rivers-forests -- these seedy parts mainly serve to add to its raffish charm I find. I am big fan of the city.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:52 pm

I drew parallels between Trump and Hitler in 2017. Was told I was nuts, never happen here. Checks and balances.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/opin ... rmany.html

He's now got secret police grabbing peaceful protesters off the streets, gassing them and firing at them. He f'ing gassed the mayor of Portland.

Oh right, those are non-lethal gasses and less-lethal "kinetic impact projectiles." They can kill. And blind. But it's not Zyklon or real bullets, so I guess I'm just exaggerating again. What is it going to take for people to wake the fck up? Real bullets? Sarin gas? Six million dead? JFC we're a hopeless lot not to have marched this dirtbag out of office.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:48 pm

100% agree David.

The real partner in crime here of course is the whole Republican Party, who hasn't raised even a goddamn whimper about this Nazi shit. Where's all the nonsense about state's rights now from the GOP?!?! Oh well, I guess that was all just cover to allow racists southern states continue to oppress their minorities. No principles.

And as others have argued, this is all natural end point for the GOP who treats Russia as more of an ally than its own fellow citizens. I've heard this firsthand in various wine circles, real life Republicans saying they prefer Putin to Democrats. That they'd prefer a coup to a Democrat president. Et cetera. Thank you Fox News.

This article yesterday sums the scary, outrageous state of Trump and his GOP enablers:
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/24/21335887/ ... larization

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:36 pm

Absolutely Patrick. The GOP has been a willing accomplice. And "we" keep electing them. To quote Jim from a while back, we are lost.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:56 pm

Have you guys seen Fareed Zakaria's thing on Trump's conspiracies.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:36 pm

JimHow wrote:Have you guys seen Fareed Zakaria's thing on Trump's conspiracies.

Just read it. November and December are going to be hell.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 5:37 pm

Meanwhile, in better news, the very middle of the road and cautious Cook Political Report shows this on their Electoral College Ratings page:

Democrats have 279 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column.
https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default ... 071420.pdf

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:27 pm

Blanquito wrote:Meanwhile, in better news, the very middle of the road and cautious Cook Political Report shows this on their Electoral College Ratings page:

Democrats have 279 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column.
https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default ... 071420.pdf

279, ehh? They seem to have copied from my post the exact math, down to the state...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:44 pm

Yes, but that analysis still contemplates that Wisconsin will go to Joe.

As these articles indicate, the Wisconsin legislature, supported by the state and federal courts, are working hard to suppress the vote:

https://www.thenation.com/article/polit ... sin-court/

The suppression efforts had limited success in the April 2020 primaries but they will more likely be successful in the much higher turnout November general election:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/20/21263596/ ... reme-court

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:48 pm

I remember the much-anticipated Marquette poll had Clinton up by 5 points in Wisconsin on the weekend before Election Day in 2016, and Trump ended up winning handily.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:51 pm

I still say that if Joe is going to win, he is going to have to win it without Wisconsin.
Which is why I'm hoping for some reverse coattails from the senate race in Arizona.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:29 am

Man these Republicans are ruthless! Thankfully these Republicans are on OUR side.
Now this is what I call a campaign ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:51 am

JimHow wrote:Man these Republicans are ruthless! Thankfully these Republicans are on OUR side.
Now this is what I call a campaign ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

I saw that Jim. There are several other ads by Lincoln project running against the Donald the Douchebag...

By the Way, what’s the pulse in largest Congressional District east of Mississippi?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:57 am

I got it in the Trump column right now, CV, even with my recent optimism crossing the HQ into Biden territory. A lot more energy for the orange man up here.
I also have Collins eking it out, but we shall see. I just don't see the ultraliberal Dem from Portland-Freeport appealing statewide, there have been some very ugly defeats for her like over the last 50 years.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:04 am

JimHow wrote:I got it in the Trump column right now, CV, even with my recent optimism crossing the HQ into Biden territory. A lot more energy for the orange man up here.
I also have Collins eking it out, but we shall see. I just don't see the ultraliberal Dem from Portland-Freeport appealing statewide, there have been some very ugly defeats for her like over the last 50 years.

Fair enough... If Collins loses, that’s a bonus.

Biden in the basement is working out just fine, lest he would gaffe...thank goodness he refused to sit with chris wallace of faux...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:04 am

Yeah but the rubber is about to hit the road.
He turned down Chris Wallace interview today. Not good.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:06 am

I disagree with you, CV. I think Chris Wallace is an honest reporter. He's tough on both sides, like Tim Russert used to be.
Joe's turning down a tough interview is going to lose him some points. Trump did it, it took his lumps.
Joe won't be able to hide in the basement forever, it'll start to cost him.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:12 am

JimHow wrote:Yeah but the rubber is about to hit the road.
He turned down Chris Wallace interview today. Not good.

I would be ok with his refusal to sit with chris wallace, Jim. For one, who knows how many gaffes he might make. Second, he ain’t gonna change any minds of faux news audience. Country is so divided, one side is refusing to listen to the other side, let alone change the minds to vote...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:16 am

Oh come on CV, as president he's going to have to do things a million times tougher than a 40 minute Fox News interview.
This is the office of the presidency we are talking about.
I'll make a prediction with you: Trump will make an issue of Joe's refusal to do an interview with Wallace, it'll gain traction, and Joe will finally be forced to do it after a lot of hand wringing.
He should have just done it, taken his lumps like Orange did, and go back into the basement.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:24 am

If he can't stare down Chris Wallace, how is he going to stare down Putin and Xi?

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:32 am

I'm guessing that Joe will do the Fox Sunday interview, but when he wants to do it.
The fear of Biden making gaffes is overblown imo.

He's running against a guy who's excited that he can memorize 5 words
person
man
woman
camera
TV

I think there's another Lincoln Project ad using that portion of DJT's Wallace interview.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:53 pm

But a Biden stutter or pause to avoid stuttering, or even a quickly corrected mis-statement is likely to be portrayed by the Trump campaign as "Dementia Joe." And the networks have a proven track record of promoting false equivalencies. I remain very nervous. Not so much about Biden's mental capacity, but about how it will all be spun.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:11 pm

Trump proposes delaying the election.
And here we go....

Hang on tight, folks, this is going to get crazy.

jal · Post by **jal** » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:12 pm

I don't know if you guys saw the 2020 Democratic Party Platform released early this week. Here's a copy of the draft and I must say there is very little in there that I disagree with.

Here's a link:

https://www.demconvention.com/wp-conten ... atform.pdf

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:22 pm

So now even the Federalist Society has had it with Trump: CNN Article

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:36 am

As the Manhattan DA office gears up to charge Trump post election, I have heard rumblings that the best way to get at him is with a Rico filing. A couple of journalists who are not lawyers have weighed in, writing that Trump organization certainly seems to be in violation of enough statutes that it makes sense, but no lawyers have weighed in. I have mentioned it before; it has become more relevant now. thoughts?

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:21 am

Without any data to support this observation, I think he may be in trouble after he is out of office. Just sayin.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:55 am

There is an intersection where politics meets the law, and politics wins.
Thus, Ford pardoned Nixon.
The public would never tolerate a second term Trump trying to prosecute Obama or Hillary.
Likewise, there will be serious instability if Trump is prosecuted.
I think the most we can hope for is to just get this disease out of there. The problem is that he is like the aliens in Alien, his hate is ingrained in the DNA of this country, just like the alien was lurking in the inner workings of Sigourney Weaver’s pulsating spacecraft, even while she was dressing down into her panties and relaxing, thinking the threat was over.
I’m just a country lawyer from Maine who defends alleged murderers at the state level.
I have no doubt Orange Head has committed many felonies and should be sent away longer than Rudy and John Fox combined.
Let’s just jettison out this germ into the vacuum and worry about putting him in federal prison later.
If we don’t get him out of the White House on Nov 3rd he will be literally unstoppable.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:27 am

As of Nov 2, 2020 -
As of Oct 3, 2020 -
As of Sep 3, 2020 -

As of Aug 4, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 302 to 236
As of Jul 5, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 279 to 259

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:12 pm

Thoughtful post, Jim. I assume it extends to prosecution of State, not Federal crimes. I still think Trump belongs in jail, and that his crimes are serious enough to warrant prosecution, but I see your point. Is there a point at which you would change your opinion? Speaking hypothetically, what if there was evidence that a President or ex-President arranged the murder of an individual?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:35 pm

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 91 days until E-Day:
2020: Biden+8.0
2016: Clinton+7.4 (but right after her big convention bounce)
2012: Obama+1.6
2008: Obama+2.2
2004: Kerry+0.6
2000: Bush+7.5
1996: Clinton+16.2
1992: Clinton+24.2
1988: Dukakis+11.1 (Convention bounce)
1984: Reagan+1.3
1980: Reagan+21.5
1976: Carter+27.4

These are interesting and a little scary.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:39 pm

I think the best case scenario is (a) Biden wins, and so (b) Trump somehow negotiates a full preemptive pardon as part of conceding the election, otherwise he will try to tear it all down.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:18 am

Watched the Axios interview.
"Total collapse" by Trump?
Really?
Jesus Christ the liberal media is out of control.
I hate and despise Orange more than any living organism on earth, and I came away more sympathetic to him after watching this interview.
A "total collapse" according to fake news Rolling Stone. Give me a fucking break.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/p ... n-1039137/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:22 am

I'm getting a little queasy as we move into August.
That Axios interview spooked me. I saw Trump as likable, Rolling Stone saw it as "a total collapse."
I'm going to go back to my pro-Orange electoral college projections, although I'll keep it 50-50 in the How Quotient.

How Quotient:

HQ = 50

Electoral College Projection:

268 - 270