President Trump

[DavidG]

I remain very worried Jim.

It was infuriating to watch the BS pour out of him but to an uninformed observer he didn't look confused or inept during that interview. He looked sharper than at a lot of his press conferences and rallies. If you were inclined to believe him he did a great job of parrying the interviewer's questions. Even though his replies were all lies or distortions.

[JimHow]

Agreed, David. I went into the interview desperately wanting to see a total collapse, like the Rolling Stone editors did. I just didn't see it. To the contrary....

[Blanquito]

His interview with Fox’s Chris Wallace was bad... and that was right before the “person, woman, man, camera, tv” weirdness.

We all expected the race to tighten, and Trump has clearly received the message that he needs to change his approach (at least a little), so I wouldn’t be surprised if we enter September with Biden holding more like a 5-6 point lead rather than 8-9 points as it is now.

But it’s really hard to see how the coronavirus situation gets better for him by Nov 4 — either he embraces masks and social distancing and another deep lockdown and really risks pissing off his base and crashing the economy for another quarter, or he pushes schools to have in-person instruction and the country to continue re-opening and then the coronavirus runs even wilder as we return in doors with colder weather and lots of people get sick and die especially in red states. Lots of polls show that the virus is by far the most important issue facing the country for voters and ~2/3rds of them say they will definitely vote for whomever they think will do a better job addressing it. Trump desperately needs a vaccine before Election Day, or should I say “vaccine”: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/02/us/p ... ccine.html

[JimHow]

Patrick, if this gets within 5 points, all bets are off.
I'm sure it's probably documented right here in this thread, my memory is that I was waiting for that Marquette University poll in the final weekend before the election in 2016.
When Marquette had Hillary up 5 points in Wisconsin going into the final weekend, I predicted here that Hillary would win. But I did so, and I swear this is the truth, I did so only because I did not want to make Blanquito sad. Anybody else here in Maine will tell you that I called it for Trump before Election Day.
I remember saying, if Trump puts in a strong ten final days, he will win. I think I said that here. And damn if the bastard didn't put in a perfect final ten days. He listened to his staff for once. He went off Twitter for 10 lousy days, and it changed history. With a little help from James Comey... and Hillary herself.
If I were his campaign manager, I would tell him: Okay, Mr. President.. There are 90 days to go. You are losing. Do what you did in the last 10 days of the 2016 campaign. Do what you did in that Axios interview. It drives Rolling Stone magazine crazy, but the rest of mainstream America loves THAT Donald Trump.

[Blanquito]

I hear you Jim. If Trump can show some discipline, he could make this a lot tighter.

But Hillary entered September — when polls historically start to become much more predictive — with only a ~2 pt lead, and that’s right about where things ended up in the popular vote, so if Biden is +5-6 pts in early September, I still like his chances.

My gut also tells me that this could play out a lot like the 1980 election, where Reagan had a big lead in summer polls only to see the race tighten up a lot by the Fall. But in the end, Reagan had a big win on election night as ambivalent voters came around in the end to rejecting the Carter administration. The signs (Trumps very low approval ratings, the polls, the economy, etc) point to it playing out that way again in 2020.

[Blanquito]

This is a hopeful tidbit: “A YouGov poll found 94 percent of registered voters said they had already made up their mind about how they’ll vote in November.”

Not much room left for maneuvers.

[JimHow]

Omg the funniest thing about this spoof is that every single word of it is true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqIiCkAYLT8

[Chateau Vin]

Omg the funniest thing about this spoof is that every single word of it is true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqIiCkAYLT8

Agree...She is wolf in sheep’s clothing...This is what I said about her year and a half ago...


”There is nothing to tarnish Collins anymore. She always wanted to have it both ways...She appears "principled" to hoodwink the independents and the like from the great state of Maine, and eventually comes home to roost with the washington swamp...”

[JimHow]

oh she is THE absolute worst. The phoniest politician I have ever seen.

[AKR]

I hear you Jim. If Trump can show some discipline, he could make this a lot tighter.

But Hillary entered September — when polls historically start to become much more predictive — with only a ~2 pt lead, and that’s right about where things ended up in the popular vote, so if Biden is +5-6 pts in early September, I still like his chances.

My gut also tells me that this could play out a lot like the 1980 election, where Reagan had a big lead in summer polls only to see the race tighten up a lot by the Fall. But in the end, Reagan had a big win on election night as ambivalent voters came around in the end to rejecting the Carter administration. The signs (Trumps very low approval ratings, the polls, the economy, etc) point to it playing out that way again in 2020.

What part of his life suggests discipline?

He was sent to military school because he was argumentative/belligerent.
He's been through a ton of wives/mistresses.
He's wearing a lot of bankruptcies and litigation.
He rejects a healthy, balanced diet

[JimHow]

oh man, have you seen the latest polls?
It's now within 3 points with 3 months -- and 3 debates -- to go.
we are sunk, my friends.

[Comte Flaneur]

Have the polls really moved that much?

Looks like Biden is still a good margin ahead in all the key swing states

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... t-general/

[JimHow]

I was reacting to a Harris poll that had it down to 3 points, Ian.
I wonder if mail in voting is going to cause mischief for the Dems.
I’m not for a voting system that doesn’t produce results by election night or the next morning.
The fiascos so far in the Iowa causes and Georgia primary are harbingers of the chaos to come.

[Blanquito]

Some strong polls today for the Dems in Senate races:

S.C. — Quinnipiac — Harrison 44%, Graham 44%
Maine — Quinnipiac — Gideon 47%, Collins 43%
N.C. — Quinnipiac — Cunningham 49%, Tillis 41%
Maine — Data for Progress — Gideon 48%, Collins 45%
Iowa — Data for Progress — Greenfield 45%, Ernst 43%
Ariz. — Data for Progress — Kelly 50%, McSally 40%

[JimHow]

I am REALLY hoping for some reverse coattails in Arizona.
I’m a big fan of Kelly and his brother.
He has been consistently polling well ahead of Joe in AZ.
Arizona truly could be a key to the presidential race.

[Blanquito]

Kelly could be a future presidential candidate for team blue (?). He seems to have that kind of appeal.

[JimHow]

Amen. And we'd have a great First Lady.

[JimHow]

Was just watching the Biden interview this week.
Omg, guys, seriously, this guy is not mentally fit, is he?
I'm not trying to be a wise guy here. This is not just "slowing down" here. This is full blown dementia.
We have been focused on so many issues lately that we are kind of forgetting Joe's dramatic cognitive deterioration.
This did not seem to be a good week for Joe Biden. The polls are tightening.
I'm going to adjust the HQ back into Orange head's column.

How Quotient:

HQ = 53

Electoral College Projection:

268 - 270

[DavidG]

The scary thing is the disconnect between reality and belief. People will believe the stupidest crap. My top three for today. What are yours?

1. Climate change is a hoax.
2. Russian election meddling is fake news.
3. COVID is just the flu so screw masks and social distancing.

How's that last one working out for the 1,000 people dying daily, and their loved ones? And the even greater numbers of survivors who will have long-term health problems?

How to cut through this propaganda in the age of Citizens United when money controls the message and significant chunks of our population are no better than a hamster at discriminating between truth and gaslighting? I have an idea, but it would take some real courage on the part of the media and some journalists to spring a little surprise at the first debate.

First question after the introductions: moderator approaches the podium of each candidate, announcing that there will be a pop quiz, no notes, please hand over your pen and notepad. Now, I’m going to give you each 5 words to remember, and will ask you a little later in the debate to repeat them. And they won’t be related to each other, a little tougher than person, woman, man, camera, TV.

Second question: gentlemen, we have a couple of bicycles and have set up a well-marked 1-mile course just outside the studio. First one to pedal across the finish line while counting backward from 100 by 7s "wins" this portion of the debate.

Third question: weigh-in!

Fourth question: what were those 5 words I asked you to remember?

[JimHow]

Ha I'll never forget, in my father's final months, I took him for an appointment with his doctor.
At the beginning the doctor said, ok, I want you to remember these three words: cow, hat, and penny.
And then for the next half hour he continued with the physical, giving him a full checkout, and then at the end the doctor said, okay, what were those three words I asked you to remember. And I was like, um, ah, geez, I couldn't remember, and my 90 year old dad slowly, methodically, recited them perfectly.
I guess in one sense I count my blessings in that he was still of pretty sound mind right up until that last month, and still knew who we were and could communicate with us, etc.
But, man, dementia in a parent is evil business. It was a life changing experience for me.

I don't know what is going on with Joe but that last interview he did this past week was alarming to me. Of course, Orange is no better.

[DavidG]

I'm grateful that I have never had to go through coping with dementia in a parent or grandparent.

[Chateau Vin]

The scary thing is the disconnect between reality and belief. People will believe the stupidest crap. My top three for today. What are yours?

.
.
.
3. COVID is just the flu so screw masks and social distancing.

How's that last one working out for the 1,000 people dying daily, and their loved ones? And the even greater numbers of survivors who will have long-term health problems?

It’s working perfectly for certain people as they don’t have to wear masks since they don’t believe that there is certain thing out there called COVID...

I have a sil who is an internist, and yesterday she was saying that some patients routinely ask her “so doc, is COVID real or it is just made up? I don’t see anyone with COVID...”

[marcs]

The scary thing is the disconnect between reality and belief. People will believe the stupidest crap. My top three for today. What are yours?

1. Climate change is a hoax.
2. Russian election meddling is fake news.
3. COVID is just the flu so screw masks and social distancing.

I absolutely believe Russian election meddling is fake news. The actual evidence is incredibly flimsy, take-it-on-faith, and unverifiable. The whole Russian election meddling stuff is the most disturbing mass domestic propaganda campaign I have seen since the Iraq WMD in the runup to the 2003 invasion. In some ways it's worse, no it didn't support a war that killed a million people (yet, anyway), but it's a false story that has lasted longer and seems to have a greater grip on the minds of the NPR/CNN/MSNBC/NYT set.

[Comte Flaneur]

Marc it has been proven

[JimHow]

I agree with Marcus.
I mean, what do you mean by Russian interference?
Trolling on Facebook in the swamp that is the internet?
Eh.
Now if you’re talking about hacking the codes of voting machines, that’s a different story.
But we haven’t seen that, have we?
At least not yet.

[marcs]

Marc it has been proven

it has been asserted, not proven, and the concrete evidence put forward is so flimsy as to lead one to disbelieve the assertion. If a few hundred thousand dollars of random clickbait on Facebook and Twitter can swing a presidential election, I need to cash out my 401K and get myself elected president.

[marcs]

With that said, I have discovered over the years that on-line arguments about this issue persuade no one and lead nowhere good. It is risky to have a political thread on a wine board, so we should probably just back off.

I would however like to reiterate my standing offer to bet several bottles of good wine that Donald Trump will no longer be president as of January 2021. Pessimists, put your cellar where your mouth is! (Not by drinking it, by making a bet with me).

[JimHow]

Ho, ho, if I were a betting man I would take you up on that Marcus.
Joe is up by 6 points in Wisconsin with three months to go.
Hillary was up by 5 going into the final weekend in 2016.

I WILL say this much: I'm hard pressed to give Orange MORE than 270.
So, he has zero room for error.
Although, I'm still alarmed that Pennsylvania Joe is only up by 6 in PA. WTF.

I still say this is going to come down to Arizona. I have zero confidence in Wisconsin.

[marcs]

Jim, I would be willing to put up a number of immature right bank Bordeaux with lavish/excessive fruit that you can drink too young on your back deck during those chilly late November days after the election. I really don't know how you can resist.

Polls or no polls, I don't see a maximally divisive and offensive president winning re-election during a time of national crisis and economic collapse. With less than 3 months till the election, the situation is baked in. Of course there are many curve balls that could happen, starting with Biden falling ill or dying. But a key thing that I'm not sure people appreciate is that a lot of top Republicans don't really want Trump back either. They do want to hold the Senate though.

[JimHow]

Polls or no polls, I don't see a maximally divisive and offensive president winning re-election during a time of national crisis and economic collapse.

Normally, I would agree with you. That's the Jim Carville credo.

But I'm telling you... We have never seen anything like this guy in the history of American politics. He is truly a game changer. He is a monster.

He is a monster.

I remember what he did to those GOP heavyweights like Jeb, Marco, etc., in 2016, crushed every one of them, one by one, into dust, and then took on and whipped the incredible Clinton machine.

I'll never forget the looks on the faces of the smug mainstream media and Hillary campaign about 2am on election night when reality finally set in. All the 538 and MSNBC and CNN "experts" who thought they fucking knew it all....

I'll tell you one thing, I got him winning ME-2, the energy is ALL Orange up here.

I'm not saying he can't be defeated. I've got it basically at 50-50. But I'm in the mindset that if it is remotely close, we are going to lose. Basically, like what happened with Hillary.

[DavidG]

Marcus, no animosity or lack of respect on this, just a different perspective. I'm not sure we're as diametrically opposed on this, at least as you've expressed it above. It seems you accept that Russia ran a social media campaign favoring Trump but don't consider it significant enough to rise to the level of interference. I agree that if you want to take a run at the Presidency, cashing out your 401k to hire some IT folks to run a bunch of pro-Marcus bots won't do it. You also have to have a deeply unhappy and gullible electorate receptive to the con you're selling. No tampering with voting machines needed. A few hundred thousand dollars for bots are but seeds planted in fertile soil. Mighty oaks from little acorns grow.

Jim, I think I understand your perspective to be that it doesn't really matter if Russia ran a social media campaign to influence voters as long as they didn't actually change votes. That it doesn't matter much whether that was initiated, financed, or run domestically or by a foreign power. It's pretty hard to argue with the perspective that voters have free will and if they were stupid enough to fall for the con, it doesn't matter where it came from. On the other hand, protecting the electorate from foreign influences that have other than US interests at heart does have a legitimate purpose.

[Comte Flaneur]

Marc it has been proven

it has been asserted, not proven, and the concrete evidence put forward is so flimsy as to lead one to disbelieve the assertion. If a few hundred thousand dollars of random clickbait on Facebook and Twitter can swing a presidential election, I need to cash out my 401K and get myself elected president.

I don’t know what drugs you are taking Marcus but it has been established beyond any reasonable doubt that Russia interfered in the US democratic process in a pernicious, protracted and systematic way. It is all chronicled in this link (you don’t have to look very far or scratch very deep):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_i ... _elections

[jal]

Russian interference is a fact, now two questions: was it effective and was there collusion?
On the former, I have no doubt it swayed some of, if not outright voting for Trump, then of refraining from a vote for Hillary.
On the latter, I wouldn't put it beyond Trump but without the release of the full Mueller report (and even if/when released) , definite proof remains elusive.

[DavidG]

I agree Jacques, nicely summarized.

[johnz]

The belief that everything will be fine once the Democrats get rid of Trump is more dangerous than Trump himself.Things are not going to be okay once Trump is out of office because things weren’t okay before Trump got into office. America was a murderous imperialist force whose citizens were suffering under crushing austerity and steadily mounting authoritarianism on January 19 2017, and it remains so today. Certainly the Trump administration has added its own levels of incompetence to this constant imperialism, but the same is true of its predecessors.

By this stage in his administration Bush had launched two full-scale ground invasions and implemented unprecedented levels of global militarism and surveillance, while at the same stage Obama had already destroyed Libya and was working on covertly doing the same to Syria. Trump has continued and expanded all of the most evil agendas of those two administrations and added depraved warmongering elements of his own, but you can’t even rightly argue that he’s done anything quite so evil as what Bush did to Iraq or what Obama did to Libya and Syria. Trump is not the unprecedented presidential horror that the Democratic Party-aligned media spin him as.

Imperialist elites dislike Trump not because he’s a uniquely dangerous president, but because he puts an ugly face on the things they were already doing before he took office and plan to continue doing once he leaves. The reason many rank-and-file Democrats dislike him is similar: he forces them to think about the evil things their nation does.

Establishment Democrats don’t actually want to fix any of these problems, they just want to stop thinking about them. They’re not interested in waking up, they just want to get an uncomfortable wrinkle out of their bedsheets so that they can go back to sleep.

[JimHow]

If I can't have Liz Warren I want Gretchen Whitmer!

Who is everyone predicting in the Veep race?

If it's Kamala I'm gonna be in another Hillary nose-holding crisis.

[Comte Flaneur]

Harris other wise Rice

It is a two horse race between these two

Harris will most likely get it and Rice will be Secretary of State if Joe wins

Warren will get some influential role in the administration or the Senate

[AKR]

The belief that everything will be fine once the Democrats get rid of Trump is more dangerous than Trump himself.Things are not going to be okay once Trump is out of office because things weren’t okay before Trump got into office. America was a murderous imperialist force whose citizens were suffering under crushing austerity and steadily mounting authoritarianism on January 19 2017, and it remains so today. Certainly the Trump administration has added its own levels of incompetence to this constant imperialism, but the same is true of its predecessors.

By this stage in his administration Bush had launched two full-scale ground invasions and implemented unprecedented levels of global militarism and surveillance, while at the same stage Obama had already destroyed Libya and was working on covertly doing the same to Syria. Trump has continued and expanded all of the most evil agendas of those two administrations and added depraved warmongering elements of his own, but you can’t even rightly argue that he’s done anything quite so evil as what Bush did to Iraq or what Obama did to Libya and Syria. Trump is not the unprecedented presidential horror that the Democratic Party-aligned media spin him as.

Imperialist elites dislike Trump not because he’s a uniquely dangerous president, but because he puts an ugly face on the things they were already doing before he took office and plan to continue doing once he leaves. The reason many rank-and-file Democrats dislike him is similar: he forces them to think about the evil things their nation does.

Establishment Democrats don’t actually want to fix any of these problems, they just want to stop thinking about them. They’re not interested in waking up, they just want to get an uncomfortable wrinkle out of their bedsheets so that they can go back to sleep.

Crikey, you need a drink!

[Blanquito]

TTrump has continued and expanded all of the most evil agendas of those two administrations and added depraved warmongering elements of his own, but you can’t even rightly argue that he’s done anything quite so evil as what Bush did to Iraq or what Obama did to Libya and Syria. Trump is not the unprecedented presidential horror that the Democratic Party-aligned media spin him as.

That's because he's been to busy oppressing and occupying his own citizens.

[JimHow]

I predict Whitmer.
Harris would be SUCH a mistake.