President Trump

[DavidG]

https___i.pinimg.com_originals_8b_e5_b2_8be5b2f5f3daee65c792183bd5652a7c.jpg (85.84 KiB) Viewed 1930 times

[JimHow]

Bobby Jindal's defense of Herr Orange and the Republican Party:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-trum ... opin_pos_1

I wonder where we will see the race by Labor Day.

[marcs]

People are afraid of the wrong things. Trump will be out in November, he's not winning another term. He barely won in 2016 and his situation is far worse now. But Trump was a particularly grotesque symptom of our political disease, he is not the underlying disease. The scary thing is that in the absence of Trump our institutional disease will continue to progress.

Trying to prosecute and imprison Trump after he is out will just cause further damage to our governing institutions and should be avoided. The Senate intelligence committee report on Russiagate was a rehash of already discredited allegations.

[stefan]

Reuters: "Last week, 73 former Republican national security officials, including former chiefs of the FBI and CIA, endorsed Biden while calling Trump unfit to serve."

[DavidG]

People are afraid of the wrong things. Trump will be out in November, he's not winning another term. He barely won in 2016 and his situation is far worse now. But Trump was a particularly grotesque symptom of our political disease, he is not the underlying disease. The scary thing is that in the absence of Trump our institutional disease will continue to progress.

Trying to prosecute and imprison Trump after he is out will just cause further damage to our governing institutions and should be avoided. The Senate intelligence committee report on Russiagate was a rehash of already discredited allegations.

I’ll agree that Trump is a symptom of our disease, but he also amplifies it. I hope you are right about him losing badly in November and that he vacates the Presidency without incident. What you say makes sense but I’m gun shy after 2016. That and with the knowledge that a high % of our electorate has the disease he is a symptom of leave me very concerned.

I do think Trump should be prosecuted. I disagree completely that it will further damage our democracy. I’ve been mulling over the destabilization argument and have concluded that when a President is as destabilizing and as criminal as Trump it is necessary to hold him fully accountable. The risk of not doing so is that future Presidents, sensing no risk of consequences, may feel empowered to do the same. That risk is greater than destabilizing things further.

Finally: Discredited Russia allegations? I’m sorry that is simply not reality. Trump campaign officials clearly worked with Russians to use stolen Democratic campaign plans against the Ds. Trump himself may have plausible deniability but I doubt he was that smart or careful, it just hasn’t come out yet. That part is speculation on my part. But even if it was done without specific knowledge on Trump's part, the fact that it happened is not speculation.

[Blanquito]

I'm getting nervous!!! Hopefully it's just 2016 PTSD.

I just gave money to Sara Gideon's senate campaign...

[johnz]

In my opinion you are wise to be “nervous,” about the 2020 Presidential election. The D.C. democrat proclaimed 2016 election “magic” will again appear in 2020, and the democrats will have provoked this “magic” response after many decades of selling out working people and merging with the republicans as corporate leviathans. The only leverage people have is to deny any democrat their vote.

--Gary Rust

[Comte Flaneur]

Nothing is 100% certain but I am ~90% certain of two things:

1. Dems win the EC (not just the PV)
2. Trump won’t concede - as a result of the mail service chaos he engineered

P.S. You may ask why as a non-US national why I am posting a lot in this thread. Three reasons:

1. I lived in America for several years and am enthralled by American politics
2. We follow it very closely in markets
3. It is difficult to overstate how much the result matters to the rest of the (civilised) world. Of course the darkest forces are routing for Trump, including the British government which is as corrupt and incompetent as the Trump administration.

[stefan]

>>
the British government which is as corrupt and incompetent as the Trump administration.
>>
British bragging. The Parson cannot compete with the tRump for creating and maintaining corruption and incompetency.

[JimHow]

Bucks game boycotted by the players in Wisconsin.
I wonder what all this will mean for the black vote and the vote in Wisconsin, which I've been calling the key swing state?

This country is a tinderbox, ready to blow.

[DavidG]

Bucks game boycotted by the players in Wisconsin.
I wonder what all this will mean for the black vote and the vote in Wisconsin, which I've been calling the key swing state?

This country is a tinderbox, ready to blow.

NY Times had a piece saying non-violent protests push turnout for Ds, while violent protests push turnout for Rs. Sounds like it could be true but I’m not sure how solid the connection really is. With WI a key swing state, the response to the Kenosha shooting could be a big deal for those who live there. Or we could have a bigger distraction any day now.

[DavidG]

In my opinion you are wise to be “nervous,” about the 2020 Presidential election. The D.C. democrat proclaimed 2016 election “magic” will again appear in 2020, and the democrats will have provoked this “magic” response after many decades of selling out working people and merging with the republicans as corporate leviathans. The only leverage people have is to deny any democrat their vote.

--Gary Rust

First time I’ve agreed with you Gary in I don’t know how long. Except for the last sentence.

[JimHow]

I see even the 538 guy has Joe only "slightly favored" now.
And the Republican convention bounce isn't even factored into the numbers.
Looks like Joe got no bounce from the Dem convention.
I know you guys see things from a completely different perspective but I'm telling you, I see Orange winning big.
He is doing to Joe what he has done to every single candidate, one by one, who has stood in his way.
I'm sticking to the prediction I made to David a while back:
Orange will win by MORE electoral votes than he did in 2016.
All those "scientific" polls the elites were smugly touting as recently as ten days ago... this is how Joe is doing relative to Hillary, blah, blah, blah...
They meant absolutely nothing. This race will be a statistical tie, or Orange will be slightly ahead, by the time the Republican convention numbers get factored in.
And you know, while a lot of it has to do with the cult and fascism and demagoguery and racism of Orange himself, a lot of also has to do with what Gary Rust said:
The Democratic Party is just more of the same.
As Gary said, they are just as in bed with the corporations as the GOP.
And that woke crowd is pretty hard to take.
Middle America is sick of the Clinton crowd.
I'm in Day 6 of my 43 day alcohol fast and diet until October 5th.
I've been watching a lot of videos about Alaska for some reason, I guess since I'm supposedly going to be up there for my case come September 20th.
It's all about hunting, fishing, independence, Republican "individualism," etc.
It's a little like the libertarian element we see here in ME-2, the northern half of Maine.
I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying this is the type of populace that elects presidents.
Sometimes they vote R, sometimes they vote D.
But they're not part of that east-left coast elite, Beltway, Hollywood, NYC liberal crowd that thinks it knows what's best for everyone else.
That right-of-center Alaska/northern Maine/small town Pennsylvania crowd is what votes in presidents.
And they don't have any problems voting for Orange.

Speaking of New York City....
Have you guys been reading what's been going on there?
That place is really in trouble. It just breaks my heart.
I think Covid has killed that city.

Although, this article in the Atlantic makes a compelling argument that affluence has killed New York, not the pandemic.
They may be right:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... rk/615715/

[JimHow]

Wow! Ivanka '28!
(After the third term of her dad!)

[JimHow]

Wow... "Great" speech by Herr Orange tonight.
Reaganesque.
Good luck, Dems.
Interestingly, I didn't hear a word about voter fraud.
I'm getting that sick feeling -- again -- that we should have nominated Bernie....

[Blanquito]

I didn’t watch it, but the critics I’ve been checking out are pretty much panning the speech as boring, long, mechanical and meandering.

[tim]

Seriously, Jim, "great"? Did we listen to the same speech?

And I don't get your obsession with Bernie. If you didn't notice, the GOP is running against Bernie, not Biden. They keep bringing him and Socialism up as if Bernie had won. And doing their best to link Biden to Bernie.

Bernie is an extremist who would fit in with the French Socialists. And he would be crushed by Trump.

[Blanquito]

I’m with Tim. I mean, Sanders honeymooned bare-chested in Soviet Russia for fuck’s sake!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... utType=amp

PS. I personally could careless that Bernie flirted with communists, but Trump would have had a field day with bernie’s history.

[DavidG]

Patrick, you meant Sanders...

Wait, wasn’t Jim kidnapped one night by Soviet agents while visiting the Motherland? Was he turned? Could he be part of a silent sleeper cell?

[JimHow]

A “great” speech Timmy, even the CNN crowd had trouble criticizing it.
I’m not saying that I, JimHow, liked it, but if I were on his campaign team I’d be elated, he hit all the points that score with his base, obviously, but I thought he also hit Joe hard and contrasted himself and set up a clear choice from the Dems. And, as we all know, middle America loves that John Wayne god bless America shit.
I predict his poll numbers will improve substantially in the days ahead.
As for Bernie, Timmy, you and I are just never going to agree on that.
You prefer the predictable Hillary/Huma/Debbie/Chuck/Nancy approach, and that’s okay, but I say to you the average person in the center is sick and tired of that crowd. Bernie could not have done worse than Hillary in 2016 -- she lost -- and it remains to be seen if we have the same result four years later. Although I like Joe more than Hillary, I’m afraid he comes from that same old tired Democratic Party machinery. I thought the Republicans did an effective job of casting the Dems as negative, whining, radical, anti-law enforcement, etc. And frankly, I’m not hearing anything incredibly inspiring from Joe or Kamala. As with 2016, my vote is more anti-Trump than pro-Democrat, although I do like the Dem candidate more this year than I did when I held my nose in 2016.
Let me guess, Patrick, those calling the speech long, boring, etc., were from the NYT, Washington Post, and CNN.

From what I can see it was a successful convention for the Republicans, and I think the Democrats are in trouble.

[DavidG]

I think Jim is right that Trump and the entire RNC played well to Trump's base. Will it get him those gray area votes? Time will tell but I share his concern. That said, I agree with Tim that Sanders would have been an even easier target. The one thing Sanders has over Biden is a relentless rhetorical style, something he shares with Trump.

[JimHow]

There’s a certain level of overlap between the Sanders and Trump crowd, in fact the program last night spent a good chunk of time last night courting Bernie supporters. If we lose again I fully expect the Dems to cry yet again that it was the fault of Bernie, it was the fault of Fox, it was the fault of this, and that... everything, of course, except their same-as-the-Old-boss, grotesque, corporate Bill and Hillary Clinton out of touch, smirking, we and our Hollywood friends know it all culture.

[JimHow]

David, I’ve been saying for years that Bernie is in many ways a Trump from the left, minus the corruption and narcissism etc., an angry, nasty, old white man who means what he says, whether you agree with him or not. Not this, oh I’m for the Hyde amendment yesterday but not today, I’m for the Iraq war then but not now, etc. God, I hate that shit. The Democrats are masters at it, that Bill/Hillary Clinton say-anything-to-get-elected-even if-it-means-letting-Newt-walk-all-over-you mentality, almost as bad as the Republicans. It’s why an old white socialist appeals to young people and even some on the right.

[marcs]

Bernie has got fuck-all to do with Trump, they are absoutely nothing alike. The reason people connect them is not that they are anything alike, it is that they are both in their own ways appeal to people disgusted with the extremely narrow range of conventional DC politics.

And you are right that DC politics is lying and hypocritical. Trump is a master at pretending that he's not lying and hypocritical, because he gives the impression of "telling it like it is" by being willing to pop off and say anything insulting at any time. But Bernie is actually not lying and hypocritical because he has humane core beliefs that he tries to stick to. In both cases you get credit for "honesty" but it's 180 degrees different.

[johnz]

It’s obvious to me that voters who focus on political personalities in hopes of making their lives better in America are practicing the height of foolishness. Remember, people voted for a black guy. He got two terms. And many peoples lives got worse. Obama kicked 5.5 million families out of their houses during the recession, and then gave those houses back to the banks, bailed the banks out with trillions and made them bigger. Obama & Biden turned 2 wars into 7. Biden & Obama are the reason our prisons are packed with brown and black people. We are the largest penal colony on the planet. Under Biden & Obama we saw a loss of civil liberties far greater than anything Bush did. Now the government has the right to assassinate Americans – even children. We also got Romneycare.

Is Trump repugnant? Sure. Is he the problem? No, Trump is not the problem, he is the response to the problem, and the problem is the complete corporate capture of our government. There is no political competition in America, only personalities. The American government has completely seized up and cannot function. During the worst pandemic in 100 years the best the government could do was make sure people lost their jobs and their health care by closing their businesses as the Senators and Representatives gave 5 trillion to their donors. Our Democracy has already been taken from us. It’s over, and voting for a Democrat in 2020 does not make you a good person. It shows you are out of touch and that you are someone who does not know what the real problem is.

There was a time when Bernie spoke for me when he campaigned against political corruption and for medicare for all. But Bernie stopped speaking for me when he endorsed Biden, who represents everything Bernie campaigned against, for nothing in return. I no longer hear Bernie.

Trump is despicable yes, but he is not the problem. Biden is not the solution to American’s problems. He’s just another problem.

[tim]

Gary, you and I will always be diametrically opposed when it comes to progressive/liberal politics. I think the Bernie wing of the party is completely delusional and is advocating for some of the worst failed economic policies that the world has ever experienced. While I agree on some core concepts (single payer healthcare, investment in renewable energies), the economic principles and foreign policy positions would be even worse than Trump. The one thing that Trump and the Bernie wing share is their disdain for international institutions and open trade. Yet these are the very bedrock of the economic growth and stability that the world has seen over the past decades.

Voters are low-information today. That is partly due to the failure of the media, leading to the rise in populism. Unfortunately, I believe that this rise in populism bears resemblance to the 20th century rise in fascism in Europe. In addition, the elections have exposed the huge flaws in the US Electoral system and Constitution. I don't believe the US will recover from this in my lifetime.

[tim]

As far as the speech, putting aside my loathing of Trump, I found it to be boring and not very well structured. It was more disciplined than his normal speeches, out of necessity, and it certainly hit on some themes that will appeal to his base. He was able to attack Biden and give himself credit with a litany of lies. But it was far from inspirational. Not even close to an Obama speech, or a Reagan speech. I guess if you are grading on a curve, yeah, it is better than some of his worst. A great speech it wasn't.

[Blanquito]

Nate Silver just posted this today as the top line output of his model, and this combined with the 538 polling average, will provide my basic understanding of the race from here. I like that it bakes in everything, including Trump’s advantage is the Electoral College.

“Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%”

And as of now, after a bevy of new high-quality polls released today, Biden is at +7.5 points at what plausibly should be Trump’s high water mark given any Convention bounce.

As a comparison, Hillary was only +2 at the same date in 2016.

[Chateau Vin]

Nate Silver just posted this today as the top line output of his model, and this combined with the 538 polling average, will provide my basic understanding of the race from here. I like that it bakes in everything, including Trump’s advantage is the Electoral College.

“Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%”

And as of now, after a bevy of new high-quality polls released today, Biden is at +7.5 points at what plausibly should be Trump’s high water mark given any Convention bounce.

As a comparison, Hillary was only +2 at the same date in 2016.

Not that 'The Hill' is authoritative on this 'hidden Trump voters", but nonetheless an interesting article... Less than margin of error of these so called hidden voters would turn into twice the advantage for Trump in actual polls, come November...

I am disheartened by the effort of Biden and Dems the way the campaign is being run since the VP pick announcement... The dems never learn...It's like to paraphrase that old saying, 'you can never straighten a dog's tail'...

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/51 ... ber-impact

[Blanquito]

Some strong polls from Fox News for Biden just posted:

-Wisconsin, August 29-Sept 1, Likely Voters -- Biden 50%, Trump 42%, 3rd Parties 2% -- Biden +8
-North Carolina, August 29-Sept 1, Likely Voters -- Biden 50%, Trump 46%, 3rd Parties 1% -- Biden +4
-Arizona, August 29-Sept 1, Likely Voters -- Biden 49%, Trump 40%, 3rd Parties 3% -- Biden +9

[AKR]

At this point its a lock for Biden and the next thing he'll have to decide on is does he get rid of the filibuster immediately to defeat the GOP now and forever. If they do that, and make DC a state, they can get absolute control.

[jal]

Polls, betting odds.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... president/

[JimHow]

On Sept. 2nd I have it as a Trump landslide, winning all of the states he won in 2016, plus Minnesota and New Hampshire.

[Blanquito]

Hard to see what (predictable) events move the race towards Trump in the final two months, other than the debates. Like the pandemic, the economy “is what it is” at this point I’m guessing. Doubtful it moves meaningfully in the next 62 days, and it’s hard to see COVID really changing much either from where it is by Nov. 3rd — even if rates spike once it gets cold it will be too late to detect by Election Day.

So, the debates — which I guess are likely to either be a draw or a small Biden win, given how low the expectations are for him at this point; plus Trump might screw up and go overboard, given how badly he’s trailing, and he hasn’t been challenged in person in 4 years, so who knows how well he’ll respond — and then lots of nervous energy for the last 2 weeks of the race.

In the meantime, the Dems need to go on the offensive, and Biden has to start showing up in battleground states and taking the fight to Trump like he’s done in the last week, but overall I’m feeling guardedly optimistic (my biggest worry is PA). In fact, if I’m Biden, I am doing everything to get Dems to vote early, or better yet, in person to prevent Trump from trying to declare himself the winner on election night long before all the mail in ballots can be counted.

My EC predictions as of today for Biden:
Best case: 413 (including TX, IA, OH, GA, PA, NC, FL, AZ, WI, MI and the 2nd District in NE)
Median case: 335 (including PA, NC, FL, AZ, WI, MI and the 2nd District in NE)
Worst case: 270 (including AZ, WI, MI and the 2nd District in NE)

[Chateau Vin]

As of Nov 2, 2020 -
As of Oct 3, 2020 -

As of Sep 3, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 278 to 260
As of Aug 4, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 302 to 236
As of Jul 5, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 279 to 259

[Blanquito]

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

• 0-1 points: just 6%!
  1-2 points: 22%
  2-3 points: 46%
  3-4 points: 74%
  4-5 points: 89%
  5-6 points: 98%
  6-7 points: 99%

Two months until Judgement Day.

Biden is at +7.3 points in the national polling average. That's a big enough lead that small things which can decide a close election -- like turning-out low-motivation voters -- aren't in play (at least for now).

Per 538, a lead of 7+ points gives Biden a 99% chance of winning the electoral college... if the election were tomorrow. But polls and election dynamics can change.

To me, that means the main question remaining is -- what could change the race with 2 months remaining?

It's a short list: (1) the debates, (2) dirty tricks/an October Surprise/A Bill Barr Special, (3) unknown externalities (natural disasters, war, stock market crash, etc.), and (4) a major stumble or scandal (min-strokes anyone?) by one or both candidates.

Do we think any of these are likely to be a game changer? The debates are the most significant, if only because we know the debates will happen and it's Trump's best, last chance to create doubt about Biden.

[DavidG]

We know #2 will happen. Never underestimate the power of the dark side of The Force. Emperor Trumpatine and Darth Barr can be defeated, but it is by no means a sure thing.

[Blanquito]

Well said, Obi Wan David. There’s a lot of plot left in this story.

I’m mostly worried about what happens when Trump declares both victory and massive fraud at 9 pm EST on election night, hours before west coast polls even close. Civil war is not out of the question.

[JimHow]

I have Orange winning it straight out in part because he is doing so well in PA and MN, two bellwether states.
PA for the Democrats is like FL for the Republicans.
You can still lose if you win those respective states, but you can’t win if you lose those states (PA for Dems, FL for GOP).
And the fact that MN is in play is a terrible harbinger for November.

I’m putting hope in the courts — ultimately John Roberts — to save the country.
It is in the state legislatures where we are going to have trouble, when states don’t submit their electoral college votes by the December deadline and neither candidate gets to 270 and then it goes to the House, where we lose.

[Jay Winton]

I thought Trump was from New York not Chicago in terms of voting early and often.