President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:08 pm

Lol... So you think states with one or two House members have as much influence on where federal dollars go as those with dozens more.
Ooookay....
We have lost huge numbers of defense contract jobs here in Maine that have been just blatantly stolen from us by politicians in more powerful states.
Sorry, not shedding any tears for the big states.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:28 pm

I remember, it would have been around 1992, I was in the Capitol to testify before a Senate sub-committee on safe drinking water mandates.
We paid a visit to our local delegation every time we were down there.
We went to Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell's office.
We were in the waiting area when George came out of the back office, escorting out Pat Moynihan, Bob Dole, Teddy Kennedy, Robert Byrd.
I think there were one or two others. I got to meet each one of them.
They were finalizing the transportation appropriation for that year's budget, one of the big annual pork appropriations.
These little safeguards in the constitution that protect the states are part of the genius of the founders, and what took up a lot of their attention.
A lot of it is antiquated, and some of it led to civil war, but the basic principles have kept us together pretty successfully for two centuries.
That will all be tested come about midnight on November 3rd....

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:05 pm

My first election in Colorado was the 2006 mid-terms, and I waited in line for 5-6 hrs to vote. I never had to wait before to vote when I lived in the northeast. Part of the problem was how much western states like ballot initiatives which are included in the regular ballot. In 2006 there were like 15 of these and trying to read them all and decide which to vote for could take ages mostly because the lawyers had made them mostly uninterpretable.

Shortly thereafter, Colorado moved to a mail voting system, at first it was optional and now it’s comprehensive — you can still vote in person if you want — and it works great. It’s all traceable, convenient, fast, with zero incidence of fraud to date, very low rates of ballot rejection (via smart management), and the GOP fought it tooth and nail, knowing it would increase participation and end their minority tyranny over state government. And indeed it did (along with a never-ending influx of better-educated new residents from other parts of the country, especially CA).

You still have to register but once you do, you’re automatically are sent a ballot. The reason this system isn’t used everywhere is basically simple — the GOP doesn’t want democracy.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:09 pm

You still have to register but once you do, you’re automatically are sent a ballot. The reason this system isn’t used everywhere is basically simple — the GOP doesn’t want democracy.

Yep. They are such frauds. You try to argue otherwise to your Republican friends and they look at you like they've been hypnotized.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:45 pm

Indeed.

And one more advantage of a system like CO’s. Election experts say it’s basically unhackable and highly resistant to fraud too: there’s a paper trail, and it’s all done hardcopy.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:58 pm

JimHow wrote:
You still have to register but once you do, you’re automatically are sent a ballot. The reason this system isn’t used everywhere is basically simple — the GOP doesn’t want democracy.
Yep. They are such frauds. You try to argue otherwise to your Republican friends and they look at you like they've been hypnotized.

Yeah, the same people who lecture other countries about the virtues of democracy, all the while not just making difficult for people to vote, but outright disenfranchise them through purging, etc. Most of the countries have no work day on general election, but US, claimant of oldest democracy, somehow has problem declaring a holiday for one day, once every four years...

Jim, you mentioned about the constitution withstanding for 200 years, but IMO, it’s nothing but a blip in the course of human civilization. If that’s the yardstick, I wouldn’t buy it. Throughout history, there were golden ages where people enjoyed peace, prosperity and happiness that lasted well over 200 years, that too under monarchies. Dare I also add, under benevolent dictators!!

I chuckle when people say that US has this long standing democracy and that dictatorship, communism, revolutions, etc. are foreign things and that US is immune from such upheavals. That is so inward looking in my opinion and to me seems to come from people who have little understanding of world history...No, US is not immune to these things, and a mere 250 year history is not a true representative of the possibilities of the future...And moreover, US, unlike other countries had the luxury of starting with a blank state (so to speak) to start off better, but oh wait— aren’t we already cribbing in the earlier posts about how US is moving away from its ideals, how it’s becoming undemocratic and how the people in power are becoming authoritarian, etc., etc.?

The US is at cross roads now in this election, and being on the right side of history is paramount in this election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:13 pm

Who said it was a long history? We are still a young country.
Saying the constitution has kept us in good stead for two centuries does not mean ignorance of world history.
Give me 4 years as benevolent dictator and we'll clean this mess up.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:24 pm

JimHow wrote:Who said it was a long history? We are still a young country.
Saying the constitution has kept us in good stead for two centuries does not mean ignorance of world history.
Give me 4 years as benevolent dictator and we'll clean this mess up.

My comment refers to long standing democracy, not long history...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:40 pm

Still not sure I understand your point, but whatever.
Back to the election, I think the CNN stories about this race being closer because of the electoral college are accurate. I don't usually listen much to Nate Silver but the one hour interview on his site right now is pretty interesting. Joe's overall percentage in the national polling is good, but a lot of his numbers in the Blue states like CA and NY are higher than Hillary's were, and of course those higher numbers are meaningless for him. They bring up his overall numbers nationally but they aren't reflecting how close things are in the swing states. Florida looks like it is coming back down to reality; that is, an Orange Head victory. Pennsylvania is scaring the daylights out of me, these are the types of numbers we saw Hillary polling at and she lost. The whole rationale for Joe as the nominee was that he would pull in PA and the rust belt. And of course we should all be terrified at what we are seeing in MN. Otherwise, as has been the case for months, I'm especially watching Wisconsin and Arizona.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:00 am

Jim, the difficulty in MD is because the Governor wants to make it difficult to get a mail-in ballot. Not too hard to guess why with an R Governor in a D state. I have no information on how efficiently the mail-in ballots will be counted in MD, assuming that they get there. I’ve already seen significant delays in first class mail delivery of some but not all items, from both the receiving and sending perspective.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:10 pm

Man, he seems such a reasonable R, David, I'm disappointed. I'm in search of the last reasonable Republican, I thought he might be a candidate, but I must say I'm not surprised if he's not. I just think it is an extinct bird.
Look, I'm not saying it should just be a blink of an eye to vote, either, but it should be pretty damned easy.
Orange and the Republicans have been successful in demonizing mail in voting, which has been around, damn, it's been around so long that even an old fogey like me was doing it back in '76, when I cast my first vote by absentee for a previously unknown peanut farmer from Georgia.
And all these years later Georgia can't conduct a fair election. That is so pathetic, I almost chuckle when I think about it.
I went on line, on the Maine Sec of State website. I entered my name, DOB, address. the confirmation email said that they will now refer it to the local municipality, which, as they should, will check their voting rolls and, assuming there is a James Howaniec, DOB ____, at _____ Road, they will mail me a ballot "around October 2nd." Now there's the key language. Usually it takes 2 days to be delivered in state in Maine. I've seen zero delay, either in my business or personal mail. But even if it is delayed by a day or two, if I get it mailed back in promptly, it should be accepted and ACKNOWLEDGED by the local municipality by AT LEAST 3 weeks before Election Day.
So... the reason why the rest of the country can't do this is... why, again?
And by the way....
For the dummies, mostly among the D's by the way, unfortunately, who can't take the process of early voting seriously, and wait till like 5 days before to vote by mail in hopes that it will get there by Election Day, etc., etc., etc., well, I'm sorry, I hate to sound like a Republican, but I have less sympathy for you.
The concept of standing in line for 5-6 hours -- I'm not sure I've ever stood in line for more than 5-6 minutes -- is completely alien to me here in Maine.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:26 pm

We have a GREAT Secretary of State here in Maine, Matt Dunlop, he is a leader of state Secretaries of State, despite being from a small state.
He is like the most honest government bureaucrat you have ever seen, I'm not exaggerating.
He took the lead in opposing Trump's attacks on the election system when he challenged the 2016 election results that he WON.
His fellow Secs of state, Dems, and R's, were behind him.
The whole thing got shut down like in a heartbeat.
This guy is the ultimate straight shooter -- you HAVE to be, when you are in charge of elections -- at least here in Maine, the last place where people are honest.
He said that the shit that trump and the Republicans were trying to pull FOUR YEARS AGO was an embarrassing affront to Democracy....
If they were this brazen FOUR years ago, imagine what we are dealing with four years later.

jal · Post by **jal** » Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:31 pm

In case you guys are tired of playing Solitaire

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... trump.html

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:21 am

Jim, Hogan is one of the more reasonable Republican governors, but on voting he talks a sensible game but plays the R games with barriers. I’m fine with telling people to get their ballots in the mail x days before the election as long as we can rely on that working. The BS of changing the rules, erecting barriers, fooling people into sacrificing their right is deeply and inherently undemocratic and appears to be what the Rs stand for these days.

Jacques, that’s a fun and addictive site!

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:18 pm

JimHow wrote:...
The concept of standing in line for 5-6 hours -- I'm not sure I've ever stood in line for more than 5-6 minutes -- is completely alien to me here in Maine.

Same here in CT, I've never waited very long in line to cast my ballot. Every town in CT (169) has its own election officials and they rely on a team of volunteers to make the process go smoothly. Each town certifies its results and passes them directly to the Sec of the State.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:10 pm

Email received. They even give us the city clerk Kathy Montejo's personal email.

The absentee ballot request submitted by James Howaniec on September 05, 2020 has been processed and accepted by the Municipal Clerk in LEWISTON.

Absentee ballots for the November 3, 2020 General Election will be available on or about October 2, 2020. The absentee ballot will be sent via postal mail to the address listed below. Date and times of delivery may vary depending on local mail service.

Mail to:
James Howaniec
_________________ Road
Lewiston ME 04240

Please contact your Municipal Clerk or the Elections Division if the ballot is not received in a timely manner.

Sincerely,

LEWISTON Municipal Clerk
Town Email: kmontejo @ ci.lewiston.me.us

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:14 pm

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 56 days until E-Day:

2020: Biden+7.5*
2016: Clinton+2.0
2012: Obama+3.5*
2008: McCain+1.2*
2004: Bush+7.5*
2000: Gore+2.9
1996: Clinton+16.0
1992: Clinton+7.8
1988: Bush+4.1
1984: Reagan+19.7
1980: Reagan+3.4
1976: Carter+13.4

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:21 pm

The tightening in Florida makes me nervous, PA too, though to a lesser extent.

Trump’s daylight attempts to delegitimise the election is very worrying for us here because our government is taking its cue from Trump and has four more years in office.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-elected

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ver-brexit

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:50 pm

Florida is a lost cause. Actually, we never had a shot there.
Pennsyslvania is a dagger for us.
I'm seeing huge Trump energy here in the Maine 2nd CD, it is going to be a repeat of 2016 here in Maine, 3 for Biden, 1 for trump.
I'm not a happy camper on the day after Labor Day.
One minor piece of good news is some Wisconsin numbers are looking strong for us but the problem is Joe has to win ALL Three of the PA-WI-MI triumvirate, not just one or two of the three. Orange just needs to win one of them.
Not even Arizona will save us if Orange wins PA.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:07 pm

First things first: I am very nervous too. BUT we all expected the race to tighten, and it has.

Even with that, Biden still has steady, persistent leads of various sizes in PA, NC, MN, WI, MI, and AZ, and technically he's ahead in FL (but probably not enough to overcome the systematic voter suppression that occurs there every election).

And more importantly, Biden's at or getting close to 50% in these key states: Minnesota (50.7%), Wisconsin (50.8%), Michigan (49.4%), Pennsylvania (49.1%), Arizona (49%), Florida (48.3%), and North Carolina (48.2%), which also makes it very hard from the trailing candidate to catch up. Hillary never came close to 50% in these states, and she paid for it on Election Day when all that undecided vote broke decisively for Trump and 3rd party candidates who aren't a factor this year like they were in 2016. These numbers are all from Likely Voter polls at this point, so the amount of undecided vote is now crucial.

Meanwhile, Trump isn't above 48% in ANY swing state, even Ohio (47.7%), Iowa (46.8%), Georgia (47.1%) and Texas (48%).

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:15 pm

It's tightening, but Biden is still ahead and the race has settled in.

Again, I think this really all makes the debates key. If Biden holds his own there, and there aren't any 'surprises' with real legs (not doctored videos, fake subpoenas from Bogus Barr, etc.), I think it Biden's election to lose. And there's still lots of time for more bad news to accumulate for Trump, if COVID cases spike again in the 8 weeks, if the stock market tanks, if scandals emerge. There's a school of thought that the story with Trump's calling dead soldiers losers was just the start of a series of former aids coming forward at crunch time to sink their former boss (ideally with audio or video proof). So there's a real chance that the 5-8% of the undecided electorate breaks to Biden this time, pushing this from close to blow-out land. I see more downside for Trump than Biden.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:44 pm

The single biggest surprise in this race for me has ben PA.
When Joe got the nomination I said, well, at least now we don't have to worry about PA.
This is what is going to make him different from Hillary.
And he was BORN in Pennsylvania, for Christ's sake.
But no.
It appears that Orange and the Republicans have stolen PA from us, like they have IA, and, gulp, possibly MN.
Can NH and, double gulp, ME, be far behind?
It's 4 points in PA on the day after Labor Day.
I don't know what the numbers were for the Hill queen on Labor Day 2016, but I guarantee you they were better than 4%.
It just seems over to me. I don't share Patrick's optimism.
To me, Orange has just begun.
Maybe my sentiment is colored by the sea of Trump signs I'm seeing up here in ME-2, but this just has the same feel as it did in '16....
Trump saying outrageous things, nothing sticking.... and the Dems just coming across as yucky.
AOC.... eeewwww.

We CANNOT win if we cannot win Joe's birthplace, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania....
The fact that we are even TALKING about this shows how desperate the scenario is.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:06 am

You could be right, Jim. This election is far from over. And even if Biden this pulls off, the shift in the Rust Belt towards the Republicans could haunt the Democrats for many cycles (unless the shift in the Sun Belt to the Dems makes up for it).

I think Biden’s biggest weakness so far is amongst Hispanics. Why and what’s the Biden campaign gonna do about it? If Biden were getting close to Hillary numbers amongst Hispanics voters, this thing would be over.

If it makes you feel any better, Denver, it’s suburbs, and northern Colorado in general are all Biden and Black Lives Matter signs.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:14 am

At this point in 2016, the polling averages gave Hillary about a 3 pt lead in PA. Trump was even briefly ahead at the end of August in the average:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:35 am

Okay...
Here's my JimHow POSITIVE post on why I think Joe Biden will win the presidency....

arizona, arizona, arizona....
Mark Kelly, Mark Kelly, Mark Kelly....
Reverse coattails.
When all is going bad in the eastern and central time zones, hopefully we will be able to say:
Yeah, but let's see what happens in Arizona.

The Wisconsin numbers.
So far, I keep waiting for them to collapse, like, as expected, in Florida.
Instead, they've been steady for Joe.
That 8% Rasmussen number in WI this week is one of the best things I've seen in the campaign.
remember, it's all about WI and AZ.

Um, I can't think of anything more in the positive column.
Without Pennsylvania, we can't win, even if we prevail in WI and AZ.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:11 am

PA is ground zero, I agree with you. Because is Biden more likely to win FL than PA? NC? GA? Hell no, and as you say, it’s game over if he loses PA and these states.*

*technically, not true - with WI, MI, AZ, and NE-2 (which the few polls we have show Biden with a small lead in) get Biden to exactly 270 even if he loses PA, NC, FL, GA, OH, and ME-2.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:14 am

Joe does not win NE-2 if the race is that close.
Joe only wins NE-2 if there is some sort of Democratic wave election, which there is not going to be.

Let's face it, gang. As we say here in New England during baseball season when the leaves start to turn and the death of winter knocks...

"It's ovah."

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:32 am

Some more reasons to feel good about Biden's chances:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB18Gunt

I especially agree with this one:
"The Republican National Convention provided the president with four nights of free network airtime, and thus, a unique opportunity to change the shape of the presidential race. Post-RNC polling suggests that he failed to do so.

Before the Democrats kicked off convention season on August 16, Biden led Trump by 7.7 points in RealClearPolitics polling average and by 8 in FiveThirtyEight’s; now, those figures are 7.2 and 7.3 respectively. This represents an improvement on Trump’s part, but one small enough to be mere statistical noise. Given that Trump likely needs to get Biden’s national lead down beneath 3 points in order to have a 50-50 shot of winning the Electoral College, a convention bounce that leaves the Democratic nominee ahead by more than seven is bad news for the commander-in-chief."

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:23 pm

Bunch of good (or better) polls for Biden today, especially the Marist poll in Pennsylvania at Biden +9 amongst Likely Voters (but the WI poll from Marquette at +4 is a concern):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:38 pm

Things are looking solid for Biden. Here's the Blanquito state of the race as of today:

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:51 pm

OK you constitutional scholars, could this happen?
Trump resigns before the election.
Pence pardons Trump.
The Trump/Pence ticket wins the election.
Another 4 years of the Don and Mike show.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:06 pm

I don't know but it would make a great novel DavidG!
Wow that is a pretty rosy map, Patrick, Texas, Ohio, etc., in play!
I just went to my map, I have Orange at an even 300 electoral votes.
Boy even the WSJ was hard on Orange in a couple editorials today!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:18 pm

Yes, it's a happy map for Biden, based entirely on the polling averages today and with swing states shown based exclusively on those within the margin of error as of today (the polling averages for TX and OH are currently both +0.9 for Trump). Trump's convention bounce, which wasn't that big, appears to be fading.

I do assume, however, at the end of the day that TX, OH, IA and GA will go to Trump, which really makes FL and NC the only true swing states (based on currently polling). I guess I am not sure about OH (where there has been very little polling), that could be an actual swing state as well.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:21 pm

AND, the bad news for Trump is revving up. First the Atlantic article where he denigrated our fallen soldiers. Now another whistle blower coming forward about another Russian cover-up.

And Woodward's book is just getting going, which should provide tons for fodder for the Biden campaign with its huge campaign war chest (while the Trump campaign is having to pinch pennies and cancel TV ads).

tim · Post by **tim** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:26 am

Before anyone gets their hopes up about PA, look at the 2016 polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls

And Wisconsin:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:30 am

I expect revelations from former staffers and journalists about Trump's actual bad behavior will be coming hot and heavy between now and November. I just don’t know if it will make any difference to Trump's herd of zombies, especially in the face of an equal or stronger reactive barrage of lies from Trump and his campaign.

OrlandoRobert · Post by **OrlandoRobert** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:40 am

DavidG wrote:I expect revelations from former staffers and journalists about Trump's actual bad behavior will be coming hot and heavy between now and November. I just don’t know if it will make any difference to Trump's herd of zombies, especially in the face of an equal or stronger reactive barrage of lies from Trump and his campaign.

Living in Central Florida, where conservatism prevails and over half of my co-workers are Trumpian, I can tell you unequivocally, they just do not care. How very decent human beings can turn off their vision for this piece of human excrement is beyond comprehension.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:34 pm

Yeah, these attacks on Orange Head help him rather than hurt him.
It is the mainstream media piling on with fake news.
And by the way, the mainstream media IS sleazy.
I get a kick out of how CNN considers itself all morally high and mighty but they run advertisements about reverse mortgages and all kinds of other scams that are designed to take advantage of the elderly and poor people. The whole system is rotten and rat infested to the core, so nobody has a moral high ground. The whole system is terminally ill. In the eyes of Orange supporters he is just honest about the rot, but corporate poison has contaminated all levels of "the system," nobody is innocent, left or right, rich or poor, black or white.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:53 pm

JimHow wrote:Yeah, these attacks on Orange Head help him rather than hurt him.
It is the mainstream media piling on with fake news.
And by the way, the mainstream media IS sleazy.
I get a kick out of how CNN considers itself all morally high and mighty but they run advertisements about reverse mortgages and all kinds of other scams that are designed to take advantage of the elderly and poor people. The whole system is rotten and rat infested to the core, so nobody has a moral high ground. The whole system is terminally ill. In the eyes of Orange supporters he is just honest about the rot, but corporate poison has contaminated all levels of "the system," nobody is innocent, left or right, rich or poor, black or white.

The medical device scammers on CNN/CNBC are pretty bad too. Getting people 'free' scooters if they're on MedicAid.

Go to any elderly community, and the bulletin boards are filled with flyers offering stuff like that for sale.

Sadly this weakening of the dollar is going to make Old World wines more expensive eventually.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:05 pm

Yeah, let’s reelect the malevolent SOB 'cuz networks carry ads for reverse mortgages and scammy DME providers. LMAO.