President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:39 pm

David: I predict that just calling the other guy a scum bag is not going to win over the other side.
There is a reason why over 45% of the population votes for this clown.
Not ALL of them are crazy.
I think large percentages of people who vote for Trump are disgusted by the whole corrupt system, on all sides of the spectrum.
And the left is as guilty as the right in thinking that their media is faultless.
Until the left begins to look in the mirror at some of its faults, the crazies on the right will get only more rabid in their energies to beat the “elitists” in the media, inside the Beltway, in the big cities, etc.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:28 pm

I agree Jim. Have to offer something other than the other side sucks.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:26 pm

My unhelpful, sad prediction: Trumpian policies will long outlast him.

Argentina is still under the thrall of Juan Peron, generations later.

Peron is the closes analog my studies have turned up for what DJT policies look like.

Maybe Marco Rubio will dress them up with a smilier face, and bring them back from the right, while Bernie/AOC co-opts some elements from the left.

All of it bodes ill for the idea that Americans will enjoy their natural right* to drink foreign wine for cheap going forward.

* I derive this from the Pursuit of Happiness part of that glorious document.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:42 pm

I had old man Nickerson come by my house a couple days ago to clean out the septic.
Has been running his own business forever, his dad is 100 now, former Republican state legislator.
One of the good old guys from Androscoggin County farm country out in the town of Turner.
I was chatting with him while he was doing his thing, we were commiserating about the economy, but joked about how both our jobs -- his in septic cleaning, mine in criminal defense -- are both pretty much recession proof. Just a real salt of the earth guy, I enjoyed talking to him. Seems like a completely reasonable guy. He remembered me from my days as mayor, I said to him, ayuh, I'm a Democrat but back in those days I could talk to folks like Jock (Republican Governor Jock McKernan) and Olympia (his wife, Republican Senator Snow) and we could still respect each other when we disagreed, and old man Nickerson agreed, he was touched when I told him that I remembered how his father had written me a nice letter when I was mayor thirty years ago, even though he was from a different party. He told me that he hated the negative politics of today, and specifically referenced the negative ads that Collins and Gideon were running against each other. I didn't want to ruin the nice conversation by asking him who he was voting for president. I suppose there's a chance he's voting for Joe because he is such a nice, commonsense businessman, but my guess is that, as he comes from a Republican family and likely has Republican leanings, he's probably going to vote for Trump. Now this wasn't some wild eyed, hateful, belligerent, crazy right winger QAnon crazy. I'm guessing he's almost certainly a hunter, supports the Second Amendment, goes to church, is probably pro-life (total guesses), but he was very comfortable in his skin talking to a Democrat like me, a criminal defense lawyer no less, he was talking about how his daughter in law got her law degree but she was working in government, his son and daughter-in-law live out of state, I think in Boston, I just got a feel that they might be a little more progressive than him, but he spoke of them fondly. The point of my ramble is that there are many, many people out there like old Randy Nickerson, good, salt of the earth people, he didn't seem to have a hateful bone in his body, very likable, I thoroughly enjoyed my conversation with him, but I can easily see him voting for Trump here in the Maine second congressional district. Works hard, he told me that he just bought a new pumping truck, I looked at the one on my lawn and said boy that must cost you a pretty penny, and he joked yeah, that's why I'm gonna have to work to 70, he said. I wrote him a check for $265 for services rendered, and he was on his way, a very nice American from likely the other political party, and an example of why not everyone who votes for Donald Trump is a crazy right winger.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:17 am

So I have my TV screen sound off. But I see a screaming headline on CNN...

SCREAMING, mind you....

"BREAKING NEWS: TRUMP HOLDS RALLY WITH NO DISTANCING & FEW MASKS, PROVING WHAT HE ADMITTED MONTHS AGO: HE'S STILL DOWNPLAYING VIRUS."

I mean, okay, come on, man....

Seriously?

CNN?

And you wonder why half the population despises the "fake news" of the "mainstream media"?

Really?

So the President of the United States -- whether you like it or not, supposedly mainstream, "legitimate" CNN <rolling eyes>, he is the LAWFULLY elected president -- is giving a speech to a totally packed house, a ravenous crowd in swing state Michigan -- but your "objective" reporting is focusing on the "BREAKING NEWS!!!!" that there are "few face masks" in the crowd.

Meantime.... Where the fuck is Joe?

Here's some JimHow "BREAKING NEWS!!!!":

Where the fuck is Joe????

Seriously....

And the "elite" liberals just eat this CNN bullshit up, and then they are astounded when they lose elections. And everyone ELSE are the crazy ones, not the CNN crowd, who find "Breaking News" in the ravenous but.. drum roll, MASKLESS... Trump supporters in swing state Michigan.

OMG.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:47 am

Man, I really wish JScott still posted here.
He was my bellwether.
He's from a district in Cincinnati that is/was the bellwether of American elections, a neighborhood in Cincinnati.
Ohio has become a bit more conservative, Trumpian, I think, since last JScott posted here.

agdoc · Post by **agdoc** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:59 am

Jim,

Been reading this forum for many years and have enjoyed lurking, reading the discussions and learning from you all. I've been following this thread and never got around to ever posting until now. Your post about the septic tank guy registered with me. I think you are right on target. You and I on on different ends of the political spectrum. But we both, I imagine, agree that this country needs respectful discourse despite our differences. I've been a Republican all my life. I consider myself a reasonable person and am looking for a reason to vote Democratic. I can't fathom another 4 years of Trump, but I don't see an alternative. My partners in my medical group largely feel the same way. The daily lecturing by athletes, Hollywood, CNN, etc does nothing to convince folks like me or many others to take a chance on the other party. The recent violence in the cities, including the one in which I live, and the inability for the country to come together (particularly Democrats) to denounce it has made it even more difficult to switch. I sure wish each party would quite pandering to their respective crazies. To your point, there are a lot of people out there looking for a change, but are being given no alternative. As you said, not all of us are crazy right wingers.

Well, I hope to contribute more to wine discussions where reasonable people can agree or disagree on the relative merits of what is in the bottle vs forcing opinions down each others throats. Cheers.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:26 am

Hi, Agdoc, thank you for your thoughtful post, and thank you for signing up to BWE!
Yeah, you are right, it is discouraging, there are many reasonable people out here on both sides, who get drowned out by the craziness.
I really look forward to hearing more from you. You sound like you have the BWE spirit!
Jim

tim · Post by **tim** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:32 am

agdoc,

First, welcome to BWE!

Since your first post is on a political thread, I do have a couple of political questions for you to better understand what you are thinking.

1. Is there a reason that would convince you to vote Democratic for the POTUS?
2. Would Bernie or Warren on the ticket make you more likely or less likely to vote Democratic, and why?
3. Are you empathetic to the challenges that black, latino, and other minorities face on a daily basis that has caused them to protest? Do you think there comes a time after people's grievances have been largely ignored that protests, including those that potentially create property damage, are justified?

I am truly curious as to your perspective on these.

Thanks!

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:25 am

Biden has a huge debt of gratitude to Bernie and Warren for falling so seamlessly behind him.

So when Trump goes on the offensive saying that Joe is a stooge of the Far Left, that is not actually a complete fabrication, there actually is a tiny scintilla of truth in that. The left has a lot of power in the party ... and influence. If we get a sweep, it should be most reflective in environmental and tax policy because the party believes that the tax code is a main conduit of systemic inequality in the US wrt wealth, income, race/minority status

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:46 am

There are times when my sanity requires that I watch an episode or two of West Wing. We have had two days of utter horror; we know now what we have always suspected. Donald Trump is responsible for thousands upon thousands of deaths. Here is a man whose response to those who died for their country is that they are “suckers”. He knows nothing but the enhancement of his ego and protection of his own skin. He will sell us out to the Russians, he will suppress intelligence, he may even start a war. On this, the anniversary of 9/11, I would like one coherent reason to vote for this mass murderer.
And even if West Wing may allow a temporary respite, I know the reality and it is as bad as any of the nightmares I had when he was elected.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:02 pm

Nobody has to "explain themselves" on BWE, Timmy, whether they are giving an opinion on politics or Barde Haut. If I were a conservative I would respond to you as follows:

1. 1. Is there a reason that would convince you to vote Democratic for the POTUS?
Not likely. Mr. Biden seems like an honest person but I do not subscribe to his general political philosophies. I am seeking more conservative justices on the Supreme Court. I am pro-life. I understand you are pro-choice, but I hope you accept that my opinion differs with you on that. I'm a Republican because I support the second amendment, I believe in a more conservative policy on government spending, and I feel that Mr. Biden's party has veered too far to the left. So, similar to when Bill Clinton was getting blow jobs from a 22 year old intern in the Oval Office and most Democrats supported him anyway, I too, while I'm repulsed by much of Mr., Trump's rhetoric, will hold my nose and vote for him.

2. Would Bernie or Warren on the ticket make you more likely or less likely to vote Democratic, and why?
While much of my political philosophy as a Republican is contrary to the philosophies of Bernie or Warren, there is also an element of anti-establishment against BOTH the Democratic and republic Parties, that overlaps with my conservative skepticisms about government. Accordingly, while I would probably still in the end vote for Trump, I would give consideration to Bernie/Liz.

3. Are you empathetic to the challenges that black, latino, and other minorities face on a daily basis that has caused them to protest? Do you think there comes a time after people's grievances have been largely ignored that protests, including those that potentially create property damage, are justified?
This question feels like a "Do you also beat your wife" type of question. It smacks of the type of liberal elitism that has the Democratic Party in the position it is in: On the precipice of losing ANOTHER presidential election to a fascist. It is what offends large numbers of people like me who may not live in liberal metropolitan areas, subscribe to liberal media, have attended liberal schools. I do NOT believe that violence is EVER justified, and do not believe that that makes me unsympathetic to the plight of minorities throughout the history of the country.

agdoc · Post by **agdoc** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:20 pm

Tim

In response to your queries:

1. The absolute lack of compassion, corruption, dishonesty and the way in which the current president has divided the country. I am looking for anyone to unite the country. Certainly, Biden would be a much better choice. I worry about those who influence him to pull too far left for my leanings. I guess the point of my initial post was to state that there are a great many Americans longing for someone to unite rather than fanning flames of discord. A message to unite would resonate with me; unfortunately that's not acceptable to the extremes in either party.

2. Bernie or Warren would have been less acceptable to my usual beliefs.

3. I believe I am empathetic to those challenges faced by Blacks, Latinos and other minorities as I see the struggles everyday as I treat them in a Federally Qualified Heath Clinic. I don't believe violence or destruction of property should be acceptable. Where do you draw the line? I believe we should be consistent in protecting the rights of ALL. And I agree the grievances shouldn't be ignored.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:54 pm

I see the Wisconsin Supreme Court has voted, 4-3, on partisan grounds, to delay the mailing of ballots by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.
Let the fun begin.

tim · Post by **tim** » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:30 pm

Jimmy, I wasn't asking anyone to explain themselves, I was genuinely curious from the perspective of an actual Republican. I think if we all listened more to the other side, and not assume what they are thinking, we would get better perspectives and be able to have reasonable dialogue.

But on your third response:

JimHow wrote: 3. Are you empathetic to the challenges that black, latino, and other minorities face on a daily basis that has caused them to protest? Do you think there comes a time after people's grievances have been largely ignored that protests, including those that potentially create property damage, are justified?
This question feels like a "Do you also beat your wife" type of question. It smacks of the type of liberal elitism that has the Democratic Party in the position it is in: On the precipice of losing ANOTHER presidential election to a fascist. It is what offends large numbers of people like me who may not live in liberal metropolitan areas, subscribe to liberal media, have attended liberal schools. I do NOT believe that violence is EVER justified, and do not believe that that makes me unsympathetic to the plight of minorities throughout the history of the country.

This is not a gotcha question. This is THE question of the protests and of BLM. Do you think it is the liberal elite that are on the streets in most of these places? Do you think the liberal elite is driving the anger that minority communities are feeling right now? In many ways, I think it is precisely the inability of people who do not live in liberal metropolitan areas to empathize with these communities that is causing the division. Do you think that Kenosha is a liberal area? It went for Trump in 2016, albeit by a slim margin. I visited there often for work last year, it is your typical American small town.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:02 pm

agdoc - Biden isn’t as far left as the Rs would have us believe. Nor will the party turn socialist or anarchist if he’s elected. Reagan would be painted as a socialist if he were running today as a D.

Switching gears to QAnon, a chilling comparison to Naziism:
https://www.justsecurity.org/72339/qano ... rebranded/

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:33 pm

Surprising poll here, given that the insiders give Trump a slight edge in ME-2:

ME-2, SEP 10-14, 2020, Quinnipiac University, Biden 53% Trump 44% -- Biden +9
ME-1, SEP 10-14, 2020, Quinnipiac University, Biden 64% Trump 32% -- Biden +32

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:34 pm

They also give Gideon a huge lead:
Maine, SEP 10-14, 2020, Quinnipiac University, Gideon 54% Collins 42% -- Gideon +12

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:55 pm

I don't buy the Quinnipiac polls, Patrick, they had Biden up by +13 in Florida.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:26 pm

JimHow wrote:I don't buy the Quinnipiac polls, Patrick, they had Biden up by +13 in Florida.

Yeah, they’ve been very tilted to the Dens this year in general... but still!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:15 am

I have no feel for how the Collins-Gideon race is going. I think it will be close. Not only the left hates Collins, but a lot of the right does as well. Still, I'll believe it when I see it.
Most phony politician I have seen in my lifetime.

Musigny 151 · Post by **Musigny 151** » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:38 pm

Love this.
”My wife and I went into town and visited a new shop. When we came out, there was a cop writing out a parking ticket. We went up to him and I said, "Come on man, how about giving a senior citizen a break?" He ignored us and continued writing the ticket. I called him an "*sshole." He glared at me and started writing another ticket for having worn-out tires. So Noreen (my wife) called him a "shithead." He finished the second ticket and put it on the windshield with the first. Then he started writing more tickets. This went on for about 20 minutes.
The more we abused him, the more tickets he wrote. He finally finished, sneered at us, and just walked away. Just then our bus arrived and we got on it and went home. We always look for cars with Trump 2020 stickers on them.“

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:10 pm

I see WeChat is being cut off come Sunday. Remember I told you guys we'd be seeing things in the weeks ahead that we never dreamed possible?
Strap in tight, folks, we are in for one hell of a ride.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:20 pm

The latest NYT/Siena poll has Biden up with Maine likely voters, 55 to 38.

AG Barr thinks that the country will quickly sink into socialism if he doesn't put his thumb on the scale for Trump.
It's gonna take a mighty heavy thumb to overturn this election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:27 pm

Wow, that is consistent with Quinnipiac not being an outlier.
Joe is going to crush him in the first district, the question is whether Orange Head can squeeze out an electoral college vote in the second district.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:31 pm

Racer Chris wrote:The latest NYT/Siena poll has Biden up with Maine likely voters, 55 to 38.

AG Barr thinks that the country will quickly sink into socialism if he doesn't put his thumb on the scale for Trump.
It's gonna take a mighty heavy thumb to overturn this election.

He is chunky, and has a mighty heavy thumb...

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:10 pm

Nate Cohn of NYTimes:
“Biden leads [Trump] by 2 points in ME-02, 47 to 45...
In the U.S. House race there, Golden (D) leads Crafts (R) by +19, 56 to 37... The ME-02 House race is considered a tossup by most rating outlets, though that may not last long.”

That’s a very big lead for the Dem House candidate from a top flight pollster.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:11 pm

Tim Alberta: “A reality that's getting harder to escape: The 2 states Trump World knows have slipped, and may be unrecoverable, are AZ & MI. WI isn't far behind.

If Biden flips all 3, and Trump holds everywhere else, it's 269 apiece.

Omaha could soon be the center of the political universe.“

Gulp.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:12 pm

Yeah I represented Crafts's wife in their divorce. He's a nut. Golden should win.

No Peggy Noonan fan but I think she summarizes things pretty well today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready- ... opin_pos_1

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:12 pm

I'm holding my breath but I'm getting more and more encouraged about AZ and WI.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:27 pm

One non-polling related thing I’ve been heartened by over the last month or so... Biden has seemed to me way more cogent, energetic, even nimble in both his prepared and extemporaneous remarks. He did very well in his town hall with voters the other day. So much so that Trump is now saying he must be on “performance enhancing drugs”!

Given how the debates loom over the remaining 47 days, this is a very important indicator. I would go so far as to say that if Biden fights Trump to a draw in the debates, Biden wins the vote (we’ll see if he also wins the the seemingly inevitable post-election Supreme Court decision) and if he beats Trump in the debates, he blows the race open.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:38 pm

Blanquito wrote:One non-polling related thing I’ve been heartened by over the last month or so... Biden has seemed to me way more cogent, energetic, even nimble in both his prepared and extemporaneous remarks. He did very well in his town hall with voters the other day. So much so that Trump is now saying he must be on “performance enhancing drugs”!

.
.
.

It's getting comical with Trump's rants...I am certain and all evidence points to the fact that performance enhancing drugs enhance the physical strength, but degrade mental cognizance...Otherwise we wouldn't have laws regarding driving under influence..

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:41 pm

Agreed on joe's cognition.

My single biggest fear is that this will ultimately NOT be decided by SCOTUS. Wow, I can't believe I just said that. How far we have fallen since 2000, when I actually WANT the right wing U.S. Supreme Court to decide.

My biggest fear is that several states will not present the electors out of fear of "mail in voter fraud," and we won't get to 270 by December 14th. then, the House of Representatives decides the presidency for the fourth time in U.S. history, and then we lose, even though we have a large majority in the House. other countries must be looking at us and saying, WTF???

So... Joe will win the popular vote by about 5 million, but that won't be enough.
It'll then be turned over to the U.S. House of Representatives, where the Democrats have a 232-198 advantage, and it STILL won't be enough...

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:52 pm

JimHow wrote:Agreed on joe's cognition.

My single biggest fear is that this will ultimately NOT be decided by SCOTUS. Wow, I can't believe I just said that. How far we have fallen since 2000, when I actually WANT the right wing U.S. Supreme Court to decide.

My biggest fear is that several states will not present the electors out of fear of "mail in voter fraud," and we won't get to 270 by December 14th. then, the House of Representatives decides the presidency for the fourth time in U.S. history, and then we lose, even though we have a large majority in the House. other countries must be looking at us and saying, WTF???

So... Joe will win the popular vote by about 5 million, but that won't be enough.
It'll then be turned over to the U.S. House of Representatives, where the Democrats have a 232-198 advantage, and it STILL won't be enough...

That's exactly my fear too, Jim...The mischief places are FL and GA in particular, and although I have some hope on WI, I am not that certain anymore...

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:56 pm

Chateau Vin wrote: That's exactly my fear too, Jim...The mischief places are FL and GA in particular, and although I have some hope on WI, I am not that certain anymore...

Latest poll of seniors in FL has Joe ahead.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:09 pm

Racer Chris wrote:
Chateau Vin wrote: That's exactly my fear too, Jim...The mischief places are FL and GA in particular, and although I have some hope on WI, I am not that certain anymore...
Latest poll of seniors in FL has Joe ahead.

I hope so that it translates into actual voting... For me, the mischief is not about voting as much as disqualified ballots or uncertified election results...

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:59 pm

If Joe wins the election but then loses because of unfaithful electors or insufficient ECs to get to 270, or right wing courts throwing out mountains of mail in ballots for spurious reasons, or Trump sending in the military police to stop the vote count, et cetera... I really think something like full scale civil insurrection or even outright war is real possibility.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:00 pm

...and we’ll (start to) know the fate of our nation in just FORTY-SEVEN days!!!

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:52 pm

I think is is a perfect summary of the race in 2 sentences or less:
"it's mid-September and Biden leads by 5+ points in states totaling 290 electoral votes (he needs 270 to win). That's not a foolproof position by any means, but it's a pretty decent one."
-Nate Silver

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:54 pm

And now Ruth Bader Ginsburg gone.