President Trump

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:34 pm

I am somewhere between Racer and BD in terms of ‘feeling it’. I am optimistic that uncle joe will reach the finish line. Like I said earlier many times — nothing else matters more than the turnout. And I think dems need to do more about knocking on doors...phone calls are good, but knocking on the doors is more effective.

As far as never trumpers, I think it’s a charade, in the sense that most of them will come home to vote for him anyway. He has given SC, delivered tax breaks, put religion part of government discourse, etc. etc. just like lazy suzy, they might say whatever they might say outward to make themselves look good, but will come home to roost and vote for trump and justify that they voted republican...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:51 pm

The biggest disappointment to me is Pennsylvania. I expected Joe to be crushing him in his birth state.

jal · Post by **jal** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:54 pm

JimHow wrote: I read Peggy Noonan, too, but she's also inside the Beltway, and she thinks Mike Pence is keen. Ewwww. Honestly, Jacques, give me Orange Head a hundred times over that weirdo.

We had this discussion before, Jim. I oppose everything Pence stands for and would never vote for him, politically he's an obvious no for me, but so would almost any Republican out there. If he was elected president, however, I would find a way to live with it, just like I found a way to live under other conservative mayors/governors/presidents/prime ministers. It's a democracy and we can vote him in or out.

On the other hand, Trump is just a repulsive divisive character and I don't know if we can survive another four years of this disgusting man.

jal · Post by **jal** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:56 pm

Chateau Vin wrote: As far as never trumpers, I think it’s a charade, in the sense that most of them will come home to vote for him anyway. He has given SC, delivered tax breaks, put religion part of government discourse, etc. etc. just like lazy suzy, they might say whatever they might say outward to make themselves look good, but will come home to roost and vote for trump and justify that they voted republican...

Whoaa, I really hope you're wrong there CV.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:09 pm

jal wrote:
Chateau Vin wrote: As far as never trumpers, I think it’s a charade, in the sense that most of them will come home to vote for him anyway. He has given SC, delivered tax breaks, put religion part of government discourse, etc. etc. just like lazy suzy, they might say whatever they might say outward to make themselves look good, but will come home to roost and vote for trump and justify that they voted republican...
Whoaa, I really hope you're wrong there CV.

I also hope I will be proved wrong, jal.

That’s one of the reasons why I strongly believe turnout is more important. Joe has the votes, but needs the turnout. Like I said before, data doesn’t vote...

OrlandoRobert · Post by **OrlandoRobert** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:16 pm

jal wrote:
Chateau Vin wrote: As far as never trumpers, I think it’s a charade, in the sense that most of them will come home to vote for him anyway. He has given SC, delivered tax breaks, put religion part of government discourse, etc. etc. just like lazy suzy, they might say whatever they might say outward to make themselves look good, but will come home to roost and vote for trump and justify that they voted republican...
Whoaa, I really hope you're wrong there CV.

I do not think CV is wrong.

I also think we are deluding ourselves into thinking Biden can coast into this win. I bet this race will be far closer than we think, with razor thin margins in some key states like FL. I think core Republicans are not going to vote for a shaky old man and a liberal, black Muslim-sounding women (not my words), even though they may not like Trump and may be embarrassed to even admit it. The best that I am hearing from my friends, colleagues and neighbors that lean or are right is that “it is sad that this is our choice, these two old guys”. Come on, that’s code. They will still vote for Trump because most of them want lower taxes and reduced government spending, even though we all know that the GOP cannot even deliver that. It never has. It’s a total fraud. I bet some of these folks simply will not admit to pollsters that they will vote for Trump. And then we have the christian conservatives that seem to love this prostitute-hounding, womanizing, racist, et al., guy. We cant forget the White Supremacists, either. Lots of those around these parts.

So Central FL is pretty 50/50 split. I am not seeing Trump signs in my neighborhood, and one of my CEO buddies who is a core GOP guy, admitted that (1) he is embarrassed and (2) fears vandalism. He will vote Trump, though.

tim · Post by **tim** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:44 pm

JimHow wrote:The biggest disappointment to me is Pennsylvania. I expected Joe to be crushing him in his birth state.

Remember that PA is really three different states rolled into one: the East, dominated by Philadelphia in the Southeast; the West, dominated by Pittsburgh; and everything in between.

Joe is well liked and respected in the East, particularly the Philadelphia area. Delaware is considered almost an extension of Philadelphia. And while Trump hypes Scranton as supporting him, it isn't really a huge part of the city that does.

On the other hand, the other two areas are quite different. Pittsburgh is a lot closer to MidWest culturally than it is to the East. And Central PA is, well, sparse. I don't think they consider Joe to be part of their home state.

Living much of my life in the Philly region, we considered Pittsburgh to be practically on the other side of the country. There was convenient transportation up and down the Northeast Corridor, but no one ever went to the other side of the state. It takes five hours of driving through nothingness to get to Pittsburgh, far less time that it takes to get to NY or Washington etc.

Which is why I think Joe is not a given for PA.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:03 pm

Indeed, I have a friend in Pittsburgh, my recollection from visiting there is that it is VERY midwest, nothing like the east coast. But it is still a Democratic stronghold, no? And Joe is from Scranton, isn't he? I just thought that Joe would be the perfect Pennsylvania candidate: Benefit from both the Democratic strongholds of Philly and Pittsburgh, yet also appeal to the sensibilities of the Scrantons, and Eastons, and Allegheny country. I mean, that was one of the whole justifications for Joe getting the nomination, that he would do what Hillary couldn't, win the urban Democratic base areas, appeal to black voters, but also appeal to the regular working Joe Catholics, etc. This is having that Gore-losing-Tennessee feel, which is amazing to me.

tim · Post by **tim** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:43 pm

I fear that so many of the working Joe Catholics have been drinking the Trump Kool-Aid that it is difficult to swing them. His magic was that he was able to gain foothold in Midwest Democratic strongholds, which as you correctly point out Pittsburgh is one of them.

That being said, you are right, he should be winning it all things being normal.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:45 pm

JimHow wrote:Four weeks to go from today.

Nate from 538 says that Orange has a 17 in 100 shot at winning. That's like 83 out of 100 for Joe.

Thank goodness, we are safe, then. Let's just cruise to victory....

Breathing a sigh of relief, based on what Nate, with his sideways Tigers cap, says.... Because he's an election nerd, you know, who has like "run 40,000 projections," whatever that means. If he says it's good, though, then I'm good, because he said it on the internet, I can rest at night for the next 4 weeks, Joe seems to have an insurmountable lead.

Who needs polls and data-driven analysis when we have Jim's gut instincts and yard-sign analysis of the greater Lewiston area?

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:16 pm

Where I live there are no Democrats who hold office. Lucie and I look for signs when we walk and see many more for Biden than for Trump (more than 2 to 1, actually). However, few houses display signs this year. I suspect that most people around where we live will vote for tRump but are afraid to call attention to it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:20 pm

Ha, I remember some big lineman, long forgotten, years ago, maybe it was Carl Eller, he once said that he used to not eat on game day before a game, not breakfast, not lunch, because he wanted to be in a nasty mood by game time. And this is the way Democrats should be acting three weeks out with the "lead" according to the supposed "experts." I'm a big believer in the existence of groupthink, the concept that intelligent people like the Harvard men and veteran generals say we should invade the Bay of Pigs, and nobody questions it, and the end result is fiasco.

I think there was a lot of groupthink among Democrats in 2016. Assumptions should be constantly questioned. And I think we SHOULD be on edge. There is an immense amount at stake. And I'm really sensing that same overconfidence creeping in here. And, yes, I do think observations from bellwether areas like here in Maine-2, Cincinnati (where are you JScott), are far more valuable than "statistical analyses." I mean, Nate tells us that Trump had a 29 out of 100 chance of winning in 2016... And, well, damn it, one of those 29 chances came up. Well, that all is pretty worthless information to me then. I mean, if you're telling me that Trump has a 16 in 100 chance of winning, and he wins, well... okay, so what was the value of your analysis? I can pick a number, any number... 5, 8, 53, 92... If my candidate wins, I was "right"...

I wonder what Nate had for Orange Head's chances back on August 6, 2015, when I started this thread and predicted Trump's victory in 2016 a year and a half before his FIRST victory? I'm guessing Nate didn't even have him on the charts.

Democrats should not be even looking at Nate Silver's numbers. We should be running like we are 3 points behind. And we need to be in nasty Carl Eller-like spirits as we go into these final three weeks, and possibly weeks beyond....

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:43 pm

JimHow wrote:Ha, I remember some big lineman, long forgotten, years ago, maybe it was Carl Eller, he once said that he used to not eat on game day before a game, not breakfast, not lunch, because he wanted to be in a nasty mood by game time. And this is the way Democrats should be acting three weeks out with the "lead" according to the supposed "experts." I'm a big believer in the existence of groupthink, the concept that intelligent people like the Harvard men and veteran generals say we should invade the Bay of Pigs, and nobody questions it, and the end result is fiasco.

I think there was a lot of groupthink among Democrats in 2016. Assumptions should be constantly questioned. And I think we SHOULD be on edge. There is an immense amount at stake. And I'm really sensing that same overconfidence creeping in here. And, yes, I do think observations from bellwether areas like here in Maine-2, Cincinnati (where are you JScott), are far more valuable than "statistical analyses." I mean, Nate tells us that Trump had a 29 out of 100 chance of winning in 2016... And, well, damn it, one of those 29 chances came up. Well, that all is pretty worthless information to me then. I mean, if you're telling me that Trump has a 16 in 100 chance of winning, and he wins, well... okay, so what was the value of your analysis? I can pick a number, any number... 5, 8, 53, 92... If my candidate wins, I was "right"...

I wonder what Nate had for Orange Head's chances back on August 6, 2015, when I started this thread and predicted Trump's victory in 2016 a year and a half before his FIRST victory? I'm guessing Nate didn't even have him on the charts.

Democrats should not be even looking at Nate Silver's numbers. We should be running like we are 3 points behind. And we need to be in nasty Carl Eller-like spirits as we go into these final three weeks, and possibly weeks beyond....

Lemme tell you something, Jim... You are way wrong...

Dems shouldn’t be running like they are 3 points behind. They should be running like their life depends on it...

You are seeing overconfidence among dems? I am seeing arrogance from certain people over here....

Yesterday we had a wine and cheese session at one of our buddies. It was a backyard get together with chairs placed 10 ft apart, honoring the social distance rules. The theme being ‘talk about politics’. People are so certain that Biden will win, that Trump will have nowhere to hide. People are salivating that Trump will see jail time after elections and one even suggested that he will flee the country (along with his family) and live in some cayman island like place for the rest of his life!! I couldn’t help roll my eyes, and thought to myself, ‘whatever man’...In a twisted logic, one suggested a conspiracy theory that Trump is a dem all along, and that all his anti democratic measures of his administration is to hand victory to dems!!! I don’t know what koolaid he has been drinking or even serious when he said it... I thought of smacking his head to wake him up to his senses!! Is this ignorance, arrogance or whatever???

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:48 pm

I think that debate performance really, really wounded Trump. Perhaps more than anything else in the campaign, even the White House Covid fiasco.

Ha, CV, that's a crazy story but I am not in the least shocked by it. Remember, Hillary similarly had it "locked up" with about 10 days to go, before Comey. Trump and the Republican cult are extremely desperate. We are about to enter into very, very dangerous weeks ahead. Just because Michigan was thwarted doesn't mean there aren't more plans out there. Godzilla is badly (fatally?) injured, and that makes him even more dangerous.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:51 pm

For the record, I voted and dropped my ballot at our local library, which is walking distance from our place... But damn, deciding on CA ballot propositions are time consuming and confusing...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:55 pm

I WILL agree with Nate on one thing he said in his recent video.... I do think, from Trump's perspective, we are starting to reach a point where time remaining is becoming a factor. The dynamics of the race seem to be favoring Joe. It's the old "If the election were held today" scenario... But there's still three long weeks to go, time for a LOT to happen. Look at how much has happened in just the past 7 days. It seems like a lifetime.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:03 am

Given the events of the last week, is it unreasonable to refer to Covid 19 as the "Trump virus" moving forward? Just asking.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:04 am

Ha, I think it should be negligent homicide.
Like a true authoritarian, he thinks that the rules don't apply to him.
He came to give a rally in Maine this summer, the state was under a mask and social distancing order, but it just didn't exist, he could do whatever he wanted.
Herman Cain is probably dead as what we lawyers call the proximate cause of Orange Head.
His White House lawn rallies are obscene and likely illegal.
We have a real cancer in our government, whether the election will remove it remains to be seen.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:17 am

Man, I wish Joe had picked Whitmer as his Veep, I like her.

Harry C. · Post by **Harry C.** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:19 am

I usually don't comment on politics here. But I think that whether or not Trump loses is relatively immaterial to the Powers that Be in the GOP. Their goal all along was packing the courts at middling and upper levels and they have succeeded. Amy C-B is the cherry on top. Democrats have to grow a pair to increase the numbers on the Supreme Court to balance the court and better reflect the country. I doubt that have the guts.

OrlandoRobert · Post by **OrlandoRobert** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:27 am

Harry C. wrote:I usually don't comment on politics here. But I think that whether or not Trump loses is relatively immaterial to the Powers that Be in the GOP. Their goal all along was packing the courts at middling and upper levels and they have succeeded. Amy C-B is the cherry on top. Democrats have to grow a pair to increase the numbers on the Supreme Court to balance the court and better reflect the country. I doubt that have the guts.

Sadly, lots of truth there.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:33 pm

I agree on court packing but where does it end. So we leap frog them with 11 when we're in power, and they leap frog us with 13 when they're in power, and on and on. FDR and the country survived when his court packing efforts failed. The Trump 2016 victory did enormous harm to our country, with over 300 federal judges appointed. A second term will finish us off. Elections have consequences. Our judiciary teeters on extreme politicization. The U.S. Senate is a shell of its former self. Roe and Obamacare will be gone soon, but if we win elections we can mitigate the harm. If we win elections, the course of judicial history will take care of itself. I still don't get how the Democratic leadership gets outmaneuvered so badly in local elections, state legislative races, census battles, gerrymandering, etc. If we can't beat this ass-clown this year, we really need to clean out the Democratic Party leadership and remake it.

I do think term limits for judges should be considered.

As those great sages Al Davis and Adrian Balboa (in Rocky II) said: Win... Just win, baby.

tim · Post by **tim** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:07 pm

If Amy C-B is confirmed, and all signs suggest that she will be, and the Dems win both, they need to go all out to pack the court. These seats were stolen by the GOP. There is nothing small-d democratic about the elections they won. Between the Electoral College and the Senate, we are currently in a state of minority rule where one Party cheated repeatedly to pack the judiciary with young extremist conservatives in lifetime appointments. The Democrats need to go mega-nuclear, kill the filibuster and enact massive judicial reform that expands the SCOTUS to reverse the damage that has been done illegitimately and make sure it cannot happen again.

Four years ago I would not have said that. But what Mitch orchestrated was beyond unethical.

Harry C. · Post by **Harry C.** » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:18 pm

Jim, The Supreme Court gets all the press, but the Republicans held up Obama recs for the lower courts as well. Then they packed all of the courts, even with ABA unqualified people. Technically it was legal, but the scope was a slow moving legal coup of sorts. That was all McConnell's doing with big money behind him. When Dems win big, how many Rs will be going to jail because of the less than legal manuevers from back rooms and illegal monies? We shall see.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:28 pm

Interesting article in the New York Times about Charles Koch's decades long effort to shape the federal courts at all levels to achieve an anti-regulation, business-friendly environment for corporations. It appears his work is nearing completion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/opin ... d=em-share

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:51 am

For Trump to win, two things have to happen.

One, he needs to retain pretty much every vote he won in 2016.

Two, Biden fails to win any more votes than Clinton, an unpopular candidate who caused many usual Dem voters to stay at home.

My prediction is Biden to flip Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, giving him 289. It's likely he'll also pick up N Carolina, Florida and one of the Nebraska districts, which would be wonderful but I don't think he'll need them.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:08 pm

I still have Trump winning. Since June, Republican registrations in the swing states are like double those of Democrats everywhere except Arizona, where they are basically even. The Republican base is many times more motivated than the Dems. They are two different animals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opin ... e=Homepage

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:37 pm

Trump's path to victory is narrowing quickly. He's nearly down to a single hope - that he can claim victory on election night and get the mail-in ballots to not be counted in critical states. That will force the issue to the House, where the Republicans currently hold sway in 26 states. To that issue, the last segment on Morning Joe today highlighted/interviewed three House candidates, all female, all in states that only need one seat to shift their balance to D. I was impressed by the three women who are all currently competitive against the R incumbent in their district. If they win those seats, the wild card up Trump's sleeve evaporates.
More and more polls are showing Biden and other Dems above 50% in their races. There are fewer and fewer undecided voters out there, and Trump is doing a good job of alienating the group he needs most - Seniors.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:30 pm

Less than three weeks to go.
I'm finding the dynamics eerily similar to 2016.
The momentum is all Trump here in the Maine second CD.
I've got Trump losing MI but winning WI and PA, and winning 290-248.
He seems to have gotten his mojo back in the past 48 hours, and is poised for a strong final three weeks, just like four years ago.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:46 pm

This article helps explain my Mainer perspective.
I think it has a lot to do with the seasons, the harbinger that fall brings, the chill in the air, a sign of things to come....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opin ... e=Homepage

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:26 am

I saw this today. Nice article. She does some interesting pieces, but I think this is one of the best I can recall. Loved the porcupine part.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:07 am

On our walk today we saw 7 Biden signs and 2 Trump signs. Texas is red, and where we live there is no democrat who holds a public office. In fact, the dems do not put up candidates for many positions in our county.

Is it possible that Texas will go dem this year? If our county does, I am sure that Texas will. Hard to believe that this will happen, but if it does, Biden will win nationwide in a landslide.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:14 am

I am not sure college towns represent true nature of overall state makeup. They more often lean democratic with young populations, but participation in election is a different thing.

I think Brazos county as a whole is reliably republican, and for that matter Texas, IMO is still solid red. I suspect it will take another couple of Blanquitos (by next census) for democrats to think about Texas to be in play... I will be very much surprised if Biden flips it...(If it happens, I promise I will open 2002 Pol Roger BdB)...

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 am

I’m a wreck. Can’t watch the news or get past a paragraph or two in the papers without turning to something completely non-political.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:46 pm

Same here, David. I'm not watching the town halls tonight. Gonna try to keep an even keel these last 2-plus weeks. I'm just going to accept that there are going to continue to be massive Big Lies coming from Trump/Fox/Republican Party, hopefully we can weather it. I see Nate has moved ME-2 into Joe's column. I'm not sure I'm there yet but hints of optimism are starting to hit me. Let's see where we are in a week.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:21 am

So, Rudy's October Surprise was a fail. Only Fox fell for the trap. The Intelligence community saw it coming, and even warned the white house.

Savanah Guthrie was tough on Trump. He was squirming, and wiggling, a lot. I think there were hints of meltdown even, but he kept his composure and never bullied her.
Biden was sharp and prepared. He was presidential.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:49 am

This whole talk by Trump of prosecuting Biden, Obama et al is all sham, and he wants dems to make a hue and cry and call it political persecution. When he is out of office, if he gets into trouble with law (which seems like, related to his business if not political corruption), it seems like he wants the dems to eat their words and in a sense have buffer against that argument...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:26 pm

This is what we are dealing with up here in Maine...

https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/10/15/t ... el=related

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:07 am

JimHow wrote:This is what we are dealing with up here in Maine...

https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/10/15/t ... el=related

I am grossed out thinking of what he does with that inflatable Trump doll and the electric wires.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:24 pm

To be honest, from London, I am flabbergasted a despicable person like Trump gets more than 10% of the vote... as are probably most people in the world...
USA are now the laughing stock of the whole world...
But if he gets reelected!... then, humankind is doomed...