President Trump

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:17 pm

I agree Antoine there are more differences than similarities with 2016, I could list at least ten important differences, which means that while Biden may not be unassailable he is in a far stronger position than HRC was four years ago.

But I can understand folks being nervous and just wanting to get this over with.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:21 pm

This is where the rubber hits the road.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:47 pm

Orange Head in the Maine second CD today...

https://www.sunjournal.com/2020/10/25/h ... ar-bangor/

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:53 pm

Why is he worried about one electoral college vote?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Ha there are several scenarios where this vote wins it for him.
In 2016 he came up here multiple times.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:52 pm

If he's lucky the Maine 2nd district will get him to 100 electoral votes

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:06 pm

Lol... I gotta admit, I'm starting to taste it, like a '14 Ducru.
Last week I said, let's see where we are in a week...
Well, it's been a decent week, when all is said and done. Time is running out on Orange.
Each day that goes by it is feeling a little less like it did four years ago.
I really like these new ads Joe is running.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:09 pm

When I used to run my campaigns I used to say that I wanted to be peaking on that Wednesday/Thursday going into the final weekend before Election Day, as the final minds were being made up. I'm liking this dynamic of Joe being above the fray -- presidential -- and letting Barack and others do the dirty work. Let's go Dems, one more strong week!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:11 pm

Reading that Joe is up by 3 points in Teyxasss. Dare we dream?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:35 am

We're gonna have to have some sort of rule here...
I suggest: Submit your final electoral vote map count by 7pm eastern US time on Monday, Nov 2, the evening before Election Day.
That'll give us 24 hours or so to absorb it before the results start to come in.
Feel free to attach a picture of your 270towin.com map!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:53 am

So this, in any realistically possible reality, represents the range of outcomes.

If we give JOE every possible win, including Texas, he wins 413-125.

If we give ORANGE every possible win, including ME-2, he wins 280-258.

These are the "best case" ranges for each candidate.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:03 am

Hard to see any other state turning, although Alaska and Kansas are enticing!
Omg would I like to see this fascist humiliated.
But... deep breath... invoking the sage. The Sage of Oakland.... Just win. Just win, baby.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:06 am

Jim’s maps illustrate perfectly why PA is so crucial — even in Trump’s best case scenario, he only wins if he takes PA. If Biden holds PA, there’s no feasible EC map for him even if everything else goes his way.

And Biden is +7.5 in PA with a week to go and an apparently record-breaking turnout election underway.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:11 am

Amen, my brother.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:18 am

It's really is all coming down to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.... where it all began. Is this where it will all end?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:24 am

Today, according to full-time poll-watcher and Cook-Report journalist, David Wasserman: “Almost all PA district-level polls show Trump badly underperforming his '16 margins all over the state... We've seen high-quality polls showing Trump running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, NEPA, Lehigh Valley, Allegheny, Harrisburg, etc.“

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:36 am

I just emailed my old law school buddy, Mark Flaherty, he’s a big Pittsburgh liberal Democrat Lawyer, tremendous guy, he usually gives it to me straight, I ask him every four years about a week before Election Day what is going to happen, he is like always right. I’ll report his response.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:38 pm

JimHow wrote:We're gonna have to have some sort of rule here...
I suggest: Submit your final electoral vote map count by 7pm eastern US time on Monday, Nov 2, the evening before Election Day.
That'll give us 24 hours or so to absorb it before the results start to come in.
Feel free to attach a picture of your 270towin.com map!

I have been doing it once a month, for few months now... My last submission is slated for Nov 2...

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:50 pm

JimHow wrote:It's really is all coming down to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.... where it all began. Is this where it will all end?

That’s what I have been saying in the last few months with some additional take...

As of today, I am still holding on to my theory that PA, WI and MI are keys to kingdom in that order for Uncle Joe to win. Yes, there are other states like AZ, NC, IA and GA (and some say even FL) where some polls show Joe in slight lead and maybe they will flip, come Nov 3. But Joe should not salivate about that prospect and should stop getting distracted. Although it might be tempting to campaign in states that could possibly flip, he should camp out in Ohio River Valley and vigorously campaign in PA, WI and MI. He can just send surrogates to AZ and NC...(for the record, I still have AZ, NC and Maine 2nd in red column)...

I am closely watching the turnout and voter participation now in those three critical states I mentioned, and poring over past turnout and victories in those states...

It’s all about turnout, baby...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:22 pm

Man, we can't be happy with today's polls.
We have a poll that has Orange winning PA.
And AZ has collapsed. What the hell happened to Kelly out there?

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:37 pm

JimHow wrote:Man, we can't be happy with today's polls.
We have a poll that has Orange winning PA.
And AZ has collapsed. What the hell happened to Kelly out there?

That’s why I don’t have faith in potential flipping states such as AZ or IA...

Like I said before, I am not happy with ground game and voter turnout campaigns of the dems. It’s pretty lame when compared to republicans, which were doing door to door even in the midst of a pandemic. And dems doing a phone reach out? Phone reach out is as stupid as it can get as in my opinion, it’s hard to reach young voters and independents...

I also felt that intead of virtual dem convention, Joe and VP should have accepted nomination and given speeches from Empty convention in WI. It would have been more symbolic...

And I wouldn’t be surprised if Kelly loses. Orange is going to have two rallies in AZ and that might put him up against Joe and in the process, boost Kelly’s opponents.... Need Obama to campaign in AZ...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:06 pm

Three overflowing Trump rallies today in PA.
Where is Joe?

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:20 pm

Ok, I’m trying really hard to be intellectually dispassionate about the race (like DavidG, I emotionally accepted Trump’s re-election a while ago to protect against any crushing 2016-like surprises to the psyche) ... but I’m getting nervous. PA is too tight to feel at ease and you know the GOP will do everything it is power to steal a close a election.

That said, Kelly still looks good to me in AZ:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... a-special/

And the PA poll today (Insider Advantage) is a GOP operation, I’m reading.

But i might have to put my Irish passport to some use and move to Europe if the USA goes the full Orange in 8 days time.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:37 am

Votes may not matter.
Trump will steal the election in the courts.
There will be violence.
I need a Xanax.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:37 pm

Interesting piece on AZ here. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... trump-2020

I've thought all along that Biden will win the state. Kyrsten Sinema won Maricopa by four points in 2018. Does anyone think the Dem vote will be down on that?

FWIW I don't think Biden will win Florida. Too many paranoid Cuban-Americans.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:33 pm

Phil David wrote:Interesting piece on AZ here. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... trump-2020

I've thought all along that Biden will win the state. Kyrsten Sinema won Maricopa by four points in 2018. Does anyone think the Dem vote will be down on that?

FWIW I don't think Biden will win Florida. Too many paranoid Cuban-Americans.

I don't think there will too much down ballot same party votes when it comes to presidential and senate voting. Some Republicans and independents, especially in states that are close, might think the need for balance of power (as house might be still in dem control) in congress. So they might opt for Biden and then vote for republican senators....So it might be hard for dems to flip the senate...Just my 2 cents..

As far as FL, I think Biden will come very close, but Trump will win...But if Biden wins, that would be something and we would have grossly underestimated the 2020 elections just like we did in 2016 (but in a reverse way)...

s*d*r · Post by **s*d*r** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:23 pm

Trump is rapidly narrowing the small distance between him and Biden, according to the local news. I also predict Trump will take the state.

Stu, AKA Florida Man

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:46 pm

Biden is still ahead in Florida, and on track to win there even though the polls have narrowed a bit. Phil the Seniors in Florida matter more than the Cuban Hispanics who are just a subset of many Hispanic nationalities.

You guys should hold your nerve rather than losing it.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... ion-432718

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:54 pm

This article today about what is happening in Pennsylvania is reflective of what I am seeing up here in ME-2.
The energy is all for Orange Head going into the final week. It seems even stronger than four years ago.
There is no way Nate Silver is going to convince me that Orange has only a 12 in 100 chance of winning.
Sounds like the Dems are getting totally out hustled in South Florida. How could that have been allowed to happen?
Win or lose, I'm really going to want to know what the hell went into the Democratic Party's decision not to run a ground game.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/opin ... e=Homepage

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:06 pm

Ha... there was someone who scoffed when I said few months back that dems are not paying attention to boots on the ground and running a good ground game for voter turnout... he.. hee... heee....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:15 pm

Sounds like you don't have it at 290-248 for Joe any more CV.
Right now, as I have for more than a year, I've got it in the Orange column.
Pretty hard to see me changing my prediction by Monday at 7pm.

With a week to go, I've got it at 280 to 258.

I think I still lose my Lynch Bages bet to David, as I had predicted an even higher EC victory for Orange than in 2016.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:41 pm

I had Joe in front before and I still have him in front as of now...I was having heartburn for dems neglecting ground game then, and I still have the heartburn about it now...

Given orange’s propensity to break the law, I have always thought that Orange would do everything to hold onto power, including using govt machinery to win this election. That’s why I thought the least dems could do is have a good ground game to increase turnout. I thought having a good ground game will give more cushion to dems protecting a bit from the expected tightening of polls close to election...

Anyway, I still have joe in front and I am closely watching the turnout in those 3 states (PA, WI and MI), and total participation compared to previous elections. But few things are heartening though... the expected increased election turnout, the upward trajectory of young voter participation so far and the upward trajectory of black voter participation so far...

One more week...

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:43 pm

JimHow wrote:Sounds like you don't have it at 290-248 for Joe any more CV.
Right now, as I have for more than a year, I've got it in the Orange column.
Pretty hard to see me changing my prediction by Monday at 7pm.

With a week to go, I've got it at 280 to 258.

I think I still lose my Lynch Bages bet to David, as I had predicted an even higher EC victory for Orange than in 2016.

Top

Here is your reply to my wager of G-L on the upcoming election

Re: A Few Weekend Wines with Friends
by JimHow on Thu May 31, 2018 8:43 pm
If you bet a 2010 Gruaud Larose, I will bet you a 2000 Pichon Baron that you will lose.
Donald J. Trump will be re-elected in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:46 pm

Lol....
Wow, two and a half years ago.
I sooooo want you to win!

Unfortunately, I think I'm going to have the worst of both worlds against David.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:52 pm

Jim, do you have a Biden/Harris sign in your yard? I have an extra one you can have.

Regarding the ground game for Joe,
Local dems have picked up the fight and are doing the leg work required. They are energized to elect their local candidates and are also bringing the message from the top of the ticket.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:59 pm

No, I probably should get one.
I love all of my neighbors but every one is voting Orange.
I just checked my voting status on the Maine Secretary of State website.
Typed in my name and date of birth.
Absentee ballot request received and accepted on 9/5/20.
Ballot mailed to voter on 10/1/20.
Ballot Return Method: Delivered by voter on 10/5/20.
Ballot acceptedd/rejected: ACC.

What is so hard about this?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:04 am

CV: When I hear the Democratic vote is lagging in Miami/Dade compared to even the losing effort of four years ago, and when I hear it is the Latin make vote that is keeping Texas from going blue, my head wants to explode.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:20 am

Blanquito wrote:President: general election
Fox News — May 17-20, 2020, 1,207 Registered Voters — Biden 48%, Trump 40% — Biden +8%

Skeptical? I get it. The election is 5 and a half months away, an eternity in politics. Republicans co-conspirators in the Senate are cooking up all sorts of sham hearings this summer (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/p ... poena.html). Biden is at best a milquetoast candidate. And with every dirty trick and voter suppression tactic and even outright fraud in store for us, democracy might not be able to prevail.

But if something resembling a fair election takes place in Nov, I still think Biden is going to win, quite possibly by a landslide (defined as 300 electoral college votes or more).

And based on the political environment we’re in, I bet the Senate is 51-49 for the Dems or better.

Bump.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:15 am

JimHow wrote:CV: When I hear the Democratic vote is lagging in Miami/Dade compared to even the losing effort of four years ago, and when I hear it is the Latin make vote that is keeping Texas from going blue, my head wants to explode.

I am not sure if you can say that democratic vote is lagging Miami/Dade one week before the election, compared to 2016, but I still have FL in Orange column. And am still gonna stick to my earlier assertion that TX won’t be purple, let alone blue until next census...Still, TX in my book is red...

I can share your angst about the dem turnout, and I still think it’s lame for dems not to stress on it. They could have used that boatloads of money Uncle Joe raised for ground game (voter registration, door knocks, follow ups, etc.) rather than spend pretty much all of it on ads. With country so divided, how many more votes can they garner through ads?

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:17 am

Racer Chris wrote:Jim, do you have a Biden/Harris sign in your yard? I have an extra one you can have.

Regarding the ground game for Joe,
Local dems have picked up the fight and are doing the leg work required. They are energized to elect their local candidates and are also bringing the message from the top of the ticket.

I don’t know about that green pasture dems ground game that you are describing, Chris....