President Trump

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:50 am

Trump lost some Omaha voters last night where he held a rally.
Leaving them in the cold after the event, with no transportation back to their vehicles, is unforgivable.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:07 am

Feeling marginally better today on the Wednesday before Election Day.
Some good polls, PA still giving me heartburn.
This is it, folks.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:47 am

So the SC has issued a memo, with no hearing, saying that they’ll wait until after the election to decide which votes in WI? or PA? (or other states as well?) to count. Making it impossible for people to know whether a mailed in ballot will be counted. So let’s all go wait in line to vote in person in the middle of the COVID surge.

And there’s more: they based the memo on Bush v Gore? So the SC can dictate to states how to run elections.

Starting to see how Trump will try to steal the election.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:37 am

Neil DeGrasse Tyson says the earth may be hit by an asteroid on election day.

edit: on the day before election day.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:08 pm

LOL Chris a sign for our times.

It’s all just such a mass of confusion and contradiction. Like everything else during Trump's administration. I’m probably just paranoid based on the R's aggressive voter suppression efforts and the abject cowardice of the Rs in Congress. The Supremes don’t have to worry about the next election or being trolled or fired by Trump. And they’re not all crazed ideologues.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:47 pm

D Day - 5!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:43 pm

I'm sorry, guys, I just can't move into the Biden column.
Minnesota seems to be in play with a legitimate poll that has Orange within 5 points.
This is corroborated by the fact that Joe is going to MN this weekend, which seems like a defensive move.
The "well-respected" Marquette Law School poll <rolls eyes> has Joe at +4 in WI. They had Hillary at +5 on the Friday before Election Day. Not good.
PA is consistently about +5 for Joe, which is about where Hillary and Bruce Springsteen were so ignominiously four years ago before disaster struck.
AZ has slipped, I'm really, really counting on that state as we shift time zones from the 10 to 11pm hours on election night, but my confidence has been shaken.
NC is a glimmer of hope, but it's all about turnout. Not hanging my hat there.
Nate's OH numbers are a pleasant surprise but don't hold your breath, especially since IA seems to have slipped a bit.
We've lost FL, and don't even dream of Dem wins in GA, let alone TX, where Orange will win handily.

Watch AZ on election night.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:13 am

We are now into the Friday before Election Day.
This is where we basically just ride it out.
The work has been done.
The debates have been held,
The money has been spent, the ads have been run.
Not much is going to change the outcome at this point.
There will be some last minute polls over the weekend that will be of interest to geeks and Nate Silver, but this race is basically over.
By midnight on Tuesday we will have a pretty good idea of where we are.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:31 am

It's weird, I remember what it was like when I ran my campaigns back in the day: City council in 1988, Mayor in 1990, U.S. House in 1994.
You put everything into those races. I lost 40 pounds when I ran for Mayor, even more when I ran for Congress.
Yet, by about this time, the Thursday/Friday before Election Day, there was this feeling that everything had been done, there really wasn't much more that could be accomplished to influence the outcome, it was almost a euphoric feeling after months of incredible stress. The hard work is done. Now it is in the hands of others, beyond your control.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:43 am

Setting aside models and the details of day to day polling, I’m feeling good about Biden still for a few simple reasons:
-the overall polling has been extraordinarily steady for months, showing Biden with a big lead nationally and a persistent advantage in a good number of key battleground states.
-most of the key battleground states are ones that Trump has to win to have any chance.
-turnout looks like it will be historic and that helps the good guys win. And ~1/3 of the electorate has already voted.
-it seems hard to remember today, but Hillary lost a historically close election, a loss that took a number of extenuating circumstances to come about: Trump drew an inside straight in winning PA/MI/WI by excruciating close numbers, Comey and the Russians, Hillary’s campaign missteps, Trump’s outsider status, a significant polling error, low voter turnout, popular 3rd party candidates, etc.
-AND it took all of that for Trump to win in ‘16 when he was actually tied or even slightly ahead in the polls for much of Sept and Oct. Again, it’s easy to forget that it for most of the election was a very close race in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape and the debates gave Hillary what turned out to be a temporary polling bounce. But Hillary was, like Trump, a very unpopular candidate, and importantly, Biden isn’t.

Trump could still win. Maybe he draws another inside straight. Maybe the polls are off again (but they’d have to be twice as bad as 2016). Maybe voter suppression, the Supreme Court, mail-in ballot spoilage, and COVID-related problems disenfranchises millions of Americans from their right to vote, and let’s Trump steal another election. But it sure looks like it will take all of that for Trump to pull another rabbit out of his hat.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:09 am

Ha, just read this right after my post!:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1avo0E

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:31 pm

That made me feel a little better, but for every "never gonna happen again" story there’s at least one that says Trump could pull it off again.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... 20/616905/

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:37 pm

I'm just like you, David, high one minute, down the next.
In the end I'm really struggling to see Trump losing FL, NC, IA, GA, AZ, OH, TX, etc., etc., and I'm just not going to assume it's going to happen.
It's going to come down to whether Joe can do what Hillary could not: Hold the midwestern blue wall. And that is seeming very, very tenuous, even in MN.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:04 pm

In a reasonably free and fair election like 08, 12 or even 16, I see Biden winning all of the key Midwest blue wall states, maybe even by comfortable margins.

The real problem as we know is all those mail-in ballots, especially in PA. It sounds like it might be days before we officially know who won PA, and Trump and the GOP will use that delay and every weapon at their disposal to stop the counting or at least get as many disqualified as they can.

That’s why Biden winning a sunbelt state or two is so key, as it will make all these nefarious efforts to steal the election moot.

But again, based on the polls and the historic turnout numbers so far, I’m seeing Biden winning all of the Blue wall midwest.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:46 pm

All Electoral College projections due by 9:00 pm eastern U.S. time on Monday.
You can explain your totals, but you can't "qualify" them.
You need to come up with ONE prediction, no "if the PA legislature does this," "if SCOTUS does that," etc., etc.
Any late or "qualified" projections will be deleted.
You can attach an image of your map if you want, http://www.270towin.com is very user-friendly.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:51 pm

Sure Biden looks like he has a good lead... but he needs a really big one to be elected... although it is not quite yet Bielorussia...

As an aside, it is a bit depressing to note that 80 to 90% of electors do not have a say in the presidential election as the decision is done by the fringe states... meaning for instance that I wonder why Californian bother to vote. Time for a one human being one vote and who gets more votes is the new president, Seems logical.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:20 pm

The uber cautious, non partisan Charlie Cook calls the election for Biden, says when the smoke clears he expects Biden to win by 9 pts and the Dems to take back the senate:
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/71103 ... VCJHPBFJTS

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:30 pm

Started reading the article, but stopped at the point where he said ME-2 is going Biden.
I'll bet anyone a 2016 d'Escurac that Orange wins ME-2.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:36 pm

Finished reading the article.
What Champagne are we uncorking!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:37 pm

Godzilla versus Covid, coming to a theater near you....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:52 pm

I'll tell you one state I'm keeping a close eye on is Rob Dayton country.
That could be the Arizona of the east.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:01 pm

My friend in Poland who says Covid is a myth says that Trump is going to win.
By the way, the Polish women are taking to the streets!
And the Thais! How is everything in Singapore, Claudius, calm?
Wow, we live in scary -- but fascinating -- times.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:29 am

So...
It sounds like the states we are going to need to focus on in the first two/three hours after the polls close, between 8 and 11pm US Eastern time, are FL, NC, and GA.
We're just going to have to put PA aside for a while.
We should have some sense of how things are going by looking at those results from GA, FL, NC, which should come in fairly quickly, between 8pm and 11pm-midnight.
I have a feeling we are going to know what is going to be going down after we see those results.

Then, by 11pm-midnight, we should start to know what is happening in OH, MI, WI, MN, IA. Some biggies there. If we aren't wrapping this thing up by midnight, we are probably in trouble. By then we are going to start "reaching" for some results in TX and AZ.

Seriously, by midnight/1am, we should have an idea what is going down. That's a pretty short window, 8pm to midnight, but plenty enough time to down a 750 of French Champagne....

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:41 am

Tom Brady, eh...
Brett Favre, eh...

But Bobby Orr endorsed Orange Head today.

Now I know we have lost...

Seriously, I’m not even joking.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:15 pm

I need someone on speed dial to calm me down:
https://twitter.com/PatinkinMandy/statu ... 78336?s=20

And Jim, I hope your friend in Poland is as right about the election as he is about COVID.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:27 pm

Ha very funny.

And now we have lost 007. What a sad year.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:14 pm

Trafalgar group has Trump ahead or tied in most tight states... they could be right ...or wrong

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:37 pm

“As the New York Times' Nate Cohn points out, Biden would get more than 300 electoral votes [on Tuesday] if the 2016 errors repeated themselves exactly in 2020.”

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:20 pm

Interesting NYT article on the election of 1860:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/opin ... e=Homepage

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:24 pm

Message from my friend Joe Baldaaci, former mayor of Bangor, in the heart of the Maine 2nd CD:

Bangor High School's Mock election results- a Democratic sweep. Biden, Gideon, Golden. Closest was Gideon getting 58.7 percent. Biden had 61 percent to Trump's 33. Golden won big with 73 percent. GO RAMS. Thank you to Mr. Pelletier for this information.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:57 pm

Too bad the kids cannot vote.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:10 am

I think I have seen enough, I’m ready to make my prediction.
It’s a pretty crazy result, but...

I have Orange Head winning in a landslide, 316-222.

I just don’t think polls apply to this guy. He is a monster. He is Godzilla. I know what my eyes and ears are telling me. When a guy does all of the bad things this guy has done and the race is still close, there is some other dynamic afoot. The usual rules just do not apply to this guy.

I see absolutely no way that he loses OH, FL, IA, TX, GA, NC, or AZ. There are plenty of warning signs out there, but the Democrats and the mainstream media have had their heads in the sand. New registrations of Republicans have dwarfed the Democrats. Joe’s numbers with blacks are LESS than Hillary’s — how can that be! Enthusiasm is low in Miami-Dade, we’re going to be dealing with the usual bullshit in Florida that has given us Bush, Trump, and these crazy asshole Florida governors and senators: It’s gonna be running late into the evening, John King is going to go to his map, and it is sickeningly going to dawn on us again that we just don’t have enough votes down in Broward and Miami to make up Republican strengths up the corridor and into the panhandle.

Incredibly, Joe’s numbers with white men are less than Hillary’s. The big story is going to be in the Midwest. Iowa has collapsed in favor of Trump at the last minute. That cannot be an aberration. I see not only MI and WI going down, but, shockingly, MN. In the weekend leading up to Election Day in 2016, “the highly respected” <rolls eyes> Marquette Law School poll had Hillary up by 5 in WI. This year they have Joe only up by 4.

The Democrats, incredibly, despite all of their money advantages, ran absolutely no ground game. Astounding. It is eerie how similar things went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Both years he suffered what seemed to be knock out blows in early October, but he recovered in the second half of the month each time, ran a disciplined last couple of weeks against uninspiring opponents, and will have pulled off two shocking upsets. We’re left again with sad, corny Bruce Springsteen working man narrations nervously trying to sooth the snowflake liberal establishment that everything is going to be okay in Pennsylvania. This year the networks will call the race much earlier, probably by midnight, not much later than 1am.

There will be slim pickings in the central and western time zones, Joe is not going to win TX, of course, and I think AZ will be toast as well. We’ll have a little false hope from NC and maybe AZ as well, but that will fade by midnight as the precinct totals approach 100%, as a very, very grim night comes to an end.

Here in Maine’s second CD, I know what I see — greater enthusiasm for Orange Head than I saw even four years ago. Everyone talks about Joe being successful with younger voters and suburban women. I’ll believe it when I see it. All the white women I know, people like court clerks and jail officers and Dunkin Donuts gals, are all voting for Orange. Like everybody I know is voting for Orange, including neighbors and friends. The only people who I know who are voting for Joe are my immediate family and my sad sack group of white middle aged, washed up, tired criminal defense lawyer friends. As should not be a surprise, Kamala Harris did nothing to add to the equation, she almost certainly hurt the ticket more than she helped.

It will be easy to blast the Democrats for running a poor campaign, not running a ground game, etc. In the end, though, the bottom line is just that this dude is a phenomenon. This guy is just what the people in this stupid country want. He is truly a fascist, an authoritarian, but there have been many successful with that formula throughout history in Europe and across the globe. As we are finding out, we are no exception. There is really nothing, in the end, that is “special” about us.

Joe will win the popular vote, but there will be no feeling that he and the Dems got cheated. He’ll run up popular vote margins in states like CA and NY, Orange will win the red states by lesser but nonetheless convincing margins. Prediction: Contrary to what the experts say, there will NOT be a record turnout in the end (everyone is just voting early, duh, in a pandemic), and there will NOT be any greater number of younger voters (they predict that nonsense every year), in fact, I predict we will see a lower turnout of younger voters from this pitiful generation.

Orange will have a mandate for four more years to expand his policies and define the courts for the next 30 years. Godzilla was confronted by an awesome adversary — Covid — but like in the old Japanese movies, he will prevail in the end. May heaven help us, and the world.

Final Electoral College Vote Prediction:

Orange Head: 316
Joe Biden: 222

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:48 am

Here’s mine: Biden wins.

Range of Biden win — between 290 and 351, with a 413 Biden landslide a (remote) possibility.

Best guess of final EC tally: Biden 305, Trump 233

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:10 am

If I cared more (I checked our emotionally 2 months ago), I would take a stab at writing the ying to Jim’s yang on the state of the election with 3 days to go, but it feels like it’s really just Jim and me talking to each other here in cyberspace.

No disrespect to all the other numerous interesting and worthy contributions to this thread. I describing how this thread feels to me at this point. If this thread was a Twilight Zone episode, we/I would realize at the end that Jim and I are the same person with multiple personalities, one part blogging in the AM, the other in the PM.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:37 am

Trump might win, no one should be shocked if he does. But for Jim’s EC guess to be anywhere remotely accurate (i.e. Biden wining only 222 EC), Trump would have to win every single toss up state (NC, FL, OH, IW, GA, TX, ME-2) AND the science and art of polling would have to be essentially worthless (Biden losing WI, MN, MI, AZ, PA, NE-2).

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:11 pm

But for Jim’s EC guess to be anywhere remotely accurate (i.e. Biden wining only 222 EC), Trump would have to win every single toss up state (NC, FL, OH, IW, GA, TX, ME-2) AND the science and art of polling would have to be essentially worthless (Biden losing WI, MN, MI, AZ, PA, NE-2).

As a famous English guy once said, when sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.

There are numerous canaries in the coal mine in this race. The collapse of Joe's numbers in Iowa has me freaked out. That cannot be an isolated phenomenon in the midwest. And I see Nate has Joe under 5% in PA, which tells me we have lost there, in a similar way to Hillary. And if we are losing in PA, now you are telling me we are relying on states like FL, NC, and GA to win. Good luck with that. I got a thing from the Biden campaign yesterday saying their internal polling has them down 2 in MI and down 4 in WI. Normally I would think it is just political bullshit but I see these numbers corroborated by Marquette -- only +4 for Joe, they were +5 for Hillary -- and what I'm seeing in Iowa and south Florida. Plus, Bobby Orr is supporting Orange Head, the cut does not get any deeper.

And, yes, I think polling is a very flawed science, especially when it involves cult figures like Orange Head. I truly, no bullshit, think we are in very big trouble.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:52 pm

Joe is going to lose both FL and OH. I just don't see how you can have a realistic expectation of being president if you can't win at least one of those states.
Historically, I have always found the ABC polls to be the most accurate. I think Nate gives them like an A or A+.
ABC has Joe down 2 points in FL. They've got him up by PA by like 6, but down from their last poll. We shall see.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:51 pm

Here's mine.

Biden 305 - wins MI WI PA AZ NC
Trump 233 - holds FL GA OH

Trump's going to win 40%+ of the vote so of course it's not difficult to find his supporters. But I think Covid has done for him.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/38doY

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:55 pm

And to throw a Senate prediction in too:

Dems gain five, lose one.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:05 pm

I pray you are right, Phil David. I pray you are right.