President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm

Greeting from "quaint" Lewiston, Maine:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:46 pm

It's the hope that kills you, Jim. I understand your view emotionally, but I have to say your reasoning is all pretty plausible. The polls are tightening. I am not at all confident and have never been so nervous about an election outside the UK given the likely ramifications for the entire world.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:06 pm

Great minds and all:

Phil David wrote:Here's mine.

Biden 305 - wins MI WI PA AZ NC
Trump 233 - holds FL GA OH

Trump's going to win 40%+ of the vote so of course it's not difficult to find his supporters. But I think Covid has done for him.

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/38doY

Blanquito wrote:Here’s mine: Biden wins.

Range of Biden win — between 290 and 351, with a 413 Biden landslide a (remote) possibility.

Best guess of final EC tally: Biden 305, Trump 233

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:13 pm

I will post my numbers a little later. I hope my assumptions and analysis is right, but hasn't NC already flipped to Biden?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:16 pm

Seems like all the key polls in places like AZ, NC, and PA are breaking for Orange, I'm now seeing multiple polls with Trump in the lead in those states, and there's still another 24 hours for the red wave to hit even further. It has been a slow, steady erosion of Joe's support for more than a week now.
We are in big trouble.
Talked to my lawyer friend Mark Flaherty in Pittsburgh this morning. He is depressed. He says it is sea of Trump support outside of Philly.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:12 pm

Haven't more than 50% already voted?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:21 pm

The polls include those who have already voted.
PA has like the lowest early vote totals, at like 38%.
Philadelphia, like south Florida, is going to let us down... again.
The reason why Obama won was because he energized the Black vote.
Hillary couldn’t do it, and lost.
Joe’s Black/Latino numbers are even worse than Hillary’s.
The salvation was going to be the suburban women. I don’t believe it is going to happen.
What a cluster Pennsylvania is going to be.
I truly shudder at what is coming.
Ah well, nothing we can do about it at this point.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:30 pm

Claim asylum in the UK?

https://www.politico.eu/article/not-a-s ... rump-poll/

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:57 pm

Pennsylvania Early voting Statistics
Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration
Party Returned Ballots Freq. Distribution Requested Ballots Return Rate
Democrats 1,596,194 66.1 1,946,770 82.0
Republicans 555,805 23.0 787,759 70.6
Minor_____ 17,237 0.7 25,527 67.5
No Party Affiliation 245,115 10.2 337,584 72.6
TOTAL 2,414,351 100.0 3,097,640 77.9

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:27 am

I'm liking some of the late numbers I'm seeing out of Florida.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:31 am

Chateau Vin wrote:As of Nov 2, 2020 -

As of Oct 3, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 290 to 248
As of Sep 3, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 278 to 260
As of Aug 4, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 302 to 236
As of Jul 5, 2020 - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 279 to 259

The call for Nov 3, 2020 election - The 2020 Presidential Electoral Map: 293 to 245

PA, WI, MI and NC will go to Dems
Trump will retain the rest along with Maine 2nd...

As for the senate, Dems will gain 3 seats (AZ, CO and ME) and lose 1 (AL). So a net of 2 seats. Both GA senate seats will need a runoff, come January...

So that's it. 24 hrs more, the results will start trickling in...

And I hope I underestimated the dem side, and I would be glad if I did as I want this narcissistic fascist and his sycophantic inept administration out of office....

P.S. I am increasingly hopeful that dems will win the fourth senate seat in NC, netting 3 and tying the senate 50-50. That would be something... I edited the post for senate update in the P.S.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:46 am

I like it, CV.
I agree with you on the Senate, it is going to be a lot tougher to gain the majority.
I'm watching closely what's going on in FL.
The Dems had a big day today in early voting.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:07 am

JimHow wrote:I like it, CV.
I agree with you on the Senate, it is going to be a lot tougher to gain the majority.
I'm watching closely what's going on in FL.
The Dems had a big day today in early voting.

On a different note, IMO, the chances of AZ going to Biden are as much as PA going to Orange...But I am sticking with my take that AZ and PA go to Orange and Biden respectively...

If AZ and PA flip from my take, that would be something!!! But Biden can still come out with a squeaker

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:15 am

I pray you are right, CV. I pray you are right.

I'm watching Florida right now. This is it.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:29 am

Prediction: Joe Biden will win Florida.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:37 am

I'm feeling it, guys. If we win Florida tomorrow, it is, obviously, over.

And I'm thinking we're going to take Florida.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:55 am

Here's the revelation, gang...
All along I've been looking at NC and AZ, and a couple other dynamics.
Obviously, the "Blue Wall" need to be held.
But...
I've just assumed all along that FL was going to collapse.
And maybe it will.
But it's the night before the election, and the numbers in FL seem to be holding.
The polls close in FL at 7pm, and they've already been counting the early votes there.
We will likely know the outcome of Florida by 10-11pm.
It's 9pm on the eve of the election, and Joe Biden is winning in the polls in Florida...
That's usually a good sign.

Come on, Florida!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:17 am

Okay, I'm going to bed.

Watch FLORIDA on Election Day.

Don't even think about Pennsylvania.

It's all about FLORIDA.

Amen, my brothers and sisters.

stefan · Post by **stefan** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:40 am

I am still rooting for Texas to come through. We just need a good turnout tomorrow. As my uncle Lyndon used to say, "we are not dead even after we are buried".

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:53 am

Interesting to hear Tom Friedman's take on a potential election outcome. He expresses great fear on what could happen given a Democratic wave. He suggests for the sake of the country we would be better off if Biden wins and the Republicans hang onto the Senate by a narrow margin. His argument is that outcome would allow time for the overall emotional temperature of the country to come down.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:00 am

I'm starting to feel a little relief in the recent court decisions coming down reaffirming the legitimacy of the various states absentee/mail-in voting processes. Also, listening to the legal arguments fending off challenges from the Republicans in States like Pennsylvania are encouraging.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:09 am

Agreed, Gerry.
I’m having the faintest hope that this may go more smoothly than expected.
We shall see. Watch the Florida numbers.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:07 am

JimHow wrote:Okay, I'm going to bed.

Watch FLORIDA on Election Day.

Don't even think about Pennsylvania.

It's all about FLORIDA.

Amen, my brothers and sisters.

I am hopeful that FL and AZ would flip tomorrow and would make an easy path for Uncle Joe so that the nation doesn't have to worry about Orange's shenanigans and court interventions....

Regarding TX, something interesting is happening in terms of turnout. TX has already cast 108% of 2016 voter turnout with actual election day left. Don't know who is turning out in big numbers. Dems, republicans or both? But TX is notorious for less than 60% turnout every cycle and ranks among the bottom 5 out of 50 states in terms of turnout. I don't have high hopes, but I suspect it would take more than 80% turnouts in Harris County and Dallas County to have a shot at flipping. I maybe wrong, but it will be interesting to see where the votes are gonna be tomorrow for TX...Will keep an eye on the numbers....

Jay Winton · Post by **Jay Winton** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:50 pm

It's finally election day and this campaign has been as ugly as I expected. I have no idea what will happen but will be surprised if there is a quick result.

Hm$(still) · Post by **Hm$(still)** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:59 pm

I’m thinking of subscribing to the Economist again, just because they are lowering my stress level:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:01 pm

Ha, I subscribe, but as Ian says, the problem is that their projections are always wrong.

Comte Flaneur · Post by **Comte Flaneur** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:59 pm

Jim what is your final forecast?

I have Biden winning 354 to Trump’s 184

Blue Senate 53-47

I know not even an emotional hedge there.

We will soon find out.

Fingers crossed the monster is deposed

The whole world is looking on anxiously

I’m off to drink some Francois Lamarche Vosne Romanee Suchots 1998 to calm my nerves

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:03 pm

I've got Orange winning in a landslide, Ian. The momentum has been all in favor of Trump since the second debate. Here's my post from a couple days ago:

I think I have seen enough, I’m ready to make my prediction.
It’s a pretty crazy result, but...

I have Orange Head winning in a landslide, 316-222.

I just don’t think polls apply to this guy. He is a monster. He is Godzilla. I know what my eyes and ears are telling me. When a guy does all of the bad things this guy has done and the race is still close, there is some other dynamic afoot. The usual rules just do not apply to this guy.

I see absolutely no way that he loses OH, FL, IA, TX, GA, NC, or AZ. There are plenty of warning signs out there, but the Democrats and the mainstream media have had their heads in the sand. New registrations of Republicans have dwarfed the Democrats. Joe’s numbers with blacks are LESS than Hillary’s — how can that be! Enthusiasm is low in Miami-Dade, we’re going to be dealing with the usual bullshit in Florida that has given us Bush, Trump, and these crazy asshole Florida governors and senators: It’s gonna be running late into the evening, John King is going to go to his map, and it is sickeningly going to dawn on us again that we just don’t have enough votes down in Broward and Miami to make up Republican strengths up the corridor and into the panhandle.

Incredibly, Joe’s numbers with white men are less than Hillary’s. The big story is going to be in the Midwest. Iowa has collapsed in favor of Trump at the last minute. That cannot be an aberration. I see not only MI and WI going down, but, shockingly, MN. In the weekend leading up to Election Day in 2016, “the highly respected” <rolls eyes> Marquette Law School poll had Hillary up by 5 in WI. This year they have Joe only up by 4.

The Democrats, incredibly, despite all of their money advantages, ran absolutely no ground game. Astounding. It is eerie how similar things went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Both years he suffered what seemed to be knock out blows in early October, but he recovered in the second half of the month each time, ran a disciplined last couple of weeks against uninspiring opponents, and will have pulled off two shocking upsets. We’re left again with sad, corny Bruce Springsteen working man narrations nervously trying to sooth the snowflake liberal establishment that everything is going to be okay in Pennsylvania. This year the networks will call the race much earlier, probably by midnight, not much later than 1am.

There will be slim pickings in the central and western time zones, Joe is not going to win TX, of course, and I think AZ will be toast as well. We’ll have a little false hope from NC and maybe AZ as well, but that will fade by midnight as the precinct totals approach 100%, as a very, very grim night comes to an end.

Here in Maine’s second CD, I know what I see — greater enthusiasm for Orange Head than I saw even four years ago. Everyone talks about Joe being successful with younger voters and suburban women. I’ll believe it when I see it. All the white women I know, people like court clerks and jail officers and Dunkin Donuts gals, are all voting for Orange. Like everybody I know is voting for Orange, including neighbors and friends. The only people who I know who are voting for Joe are my immediate family and my sad sack group of white middle aged, washed up, tired criminal defense lawyer friends. As should not be a surprise, Kamala Harris did nothing to add to the equation, she almost certainly hurt the ticket more than she helped.

It will be easy to blast the Democrats for running a poor campaign, not running a ground game, etc. In the end, though, the bottom line is just that this dude is a phenomenon. This guy is just what the people in this stupid country want. He is truly a fascist, an authoritarian, but there have been many successful with that formula throughout history in Europe and across the globe. As we are finding out, we are no exception. There is really nothing, in the end, that is “special” about us.

Joe will win the popular vote, but there will be no feeling that he and the Dems got cheated. He’ll run up popular vote margins in states like CA and NY, Orange will win the red states by lesser but nonetheless convincing margins. Prediction: Contrary to what the experts say, there will NOT be a record turnout in the end (everyone is just voting early, duh, in a pandemic), and there will NOT be any greater number of younger voters (they predict that nonsense every year), in fact, I predict we will see a lower turnout of younger voters from this pitiful generation.

Orange will have a mandate for four more years to expand his policies and define the courts for the next 30 years. Godzilla was confronted by an awesome adversary — Covid — but like in the old Japanese movies, he will prevail in the end. May heaven help us, and the world.

Final Electoral College Vote Prediction:

Orange Head: 316
Joe Biden: 222

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:19 pm

I'll take the extreme left position: Biden - 413, Trump - 125
A Vee shaped electoral map, just like the economic recovery.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:29 pm

Nate "Hedge My Bet" Silver is completely useless.

He basically is saying, well, chances are Biden is going to win, but, hey, Trump could win.
Also: It could be a blow out, but it's a thin line between that and a nail-biter.

I mean, come on. That information is completely useless.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:50 pm

That Economist prediction is like Valium, but I don't think I'm buying it.

Trump looked like a beaten man on a TV clip earlier, however.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:27 am

Not looking good in Florida.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:18 am

Well, Florida looks lost. By more than Hillary lost. Nate is saying Trump is gonna win Florida by 3 points. Hillary lost by a little more than 1. Will Trump's Florida latino strength translate to Arizona, Nevada, and elsewhere? Is Florida an aberration because of the disaster in Miami-Dade, or is it a harbinger of things to come?

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:40 am

Florida may be lost but I wouldn't lump or read too much into the Miami/Dade latino population to that in the Southwest. Miami/Dade is focused on our relationship with Cuba while the Southwest is more concerned with immigration policy.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:42 am

True. Next up, Ohio and North Carolina.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:39 am

Looks like we're gonna lose NC according to Nate. Sigh.
Looks like we're gonna lose handily in GA and TX.
OH still close.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:44 am

Watching Nate on his blog. Suddenly he's brilliant after the numbers are coming in.

JCNorthway · Post by **JCNorthway** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am

The blue wall becomes essential . . .

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:19 am

Nate says we're going to win AZ. Go Blue Wall.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 am

I thought the NYT promised this was going to be an early night for all.

If DJT loses Arizona that would be a body blow - to lose the homeland of Barry Goldwater and the new refuge of California expats.