President Trump

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:36 pm

I haven’t seen anything to the contrary, HBL, what are you hearing.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:47 pm

Yes, I think ME2 has been called for Trump. Politico reports an 8 point lead with 98.2% of precincts reporting so that looks done.

But Biden is inching closer. WI, MI, AZ and NV put him at 270 and it looks like he will have them all. Trump will huff and puff for ever more, of course.

danzur · Post by **danzur** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:51 pm

I'm still concerned about NV. It's too close and there are sooo many people here upset with the Democratic Governor due to the shutdown of the casinos/bars/restaurants. While most have all reopened the casino companies figured out how to trim their expenses. They have only brought back 60-70% of the previous workforce. Trump was relentless blaming the Governor and getting everyone lathered up. Not to mention some strange stuff sometimes goes on in NV.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:14 pm

A little nervous about AZ, but we are going to know the results tonight.
Pennsylvania is in play, those Philly votes coming in furiously.
Hang on tight.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:21 am

[quote="JimHow"]One of my lawyer buddies just said ME-2 has been called for Joe, trying to confirm.[/quo]

Not earth shattering but CNN has called it for Trump

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:23 am

Gerry M. wrote:I think Covid potentially could change the way we vote in the future and we'll have to build the systems to support it. What just happened with the USPS is a travesty and I wouldn't be surprised if the FBI doesn't step in to investigate exactly why the USPS chose to ignore the court order to expedite the absentee ballots by 3PM in 5 battleground states. You want to talk about trying to "steal" an election? That is about as blatant as it gets.

Gerry, I completely agree. This is important and bears repeating. There need to be consequences for this criminal behavior. And we need a better, easier, faster way to vote.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:25 am

Gotta say I had to laugh when Donna Bash of CNN said John McCain would have the last laugh if it was AZ that put Biden over the top, priceless.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:31 am

DavidG wrote:
Gerry M. wrote:I think Covid potentially could change the way we vote in the future and we'll have to build the systems to support it. What just happened with the USPS is a travesty and I wouldn't be surprised if the FBI doesn't step in to investigate exactly why the USPS chose to ignore the court order to expedite the absentee ballots by 3PM in 5 battleground states. You want to talk about trying to "steal" an election? That is about as blatant as it gets.
Gerry, I completely agree. This is important and bears repeating. There need to be consequences for this criminal behavior. And we need a better, easier, faster way to vote.

I heard that the Federal judge who issued the court order had demanded the parties to his office at noontime today. The presumption was he was going to hold the USPS in contempt of the order. I haven't heard anything since. These SOB's need to pay for their betrayal of their country.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:32 am

AKR wrote:
JCNorthway wrote:It is looking good for Biden. BUT, it's a sad commentary on our state of affairs that it was anywhere near this close. It's frankly hard for me to fathom that nearly half of the voters in this country were able to bring themselves to vote for Trump. I guess it says something about our "moral" fabric.
You could also invert this and say, as crazy as Trump was, and how many people on the right don't like/trust him, they viewed the policy package the other side offered as worse, thus holding their nose and voting for him. And even of the Biden 'base' , how many of those really want what's on offer, versus just not wanting Trump anymore?

Still, that's not going to stop the winning side from treating a squeaker as if they have a San Francisco style mandate, and filling the cabinet with hard partisans. For better or worse that's the advantage of our winner take all systems rather than the parliamentary style of many other developed nations.

=======

Maybe in the interest of a lasting peace, there can be some 'global settlement' of DJT's various outstanding legal issues, if he agrees to leave the public sphere (no Twitter) and acknowledges that he was impeached.

No Arv, I have to disagree here. This is the classic "both sides" "false equivalence" argument. No doubt Trump supporters feel that way, and God knows none of us can be truly objective, but there is a huge difference in the degree to which the Trump and Biden camps deviate from the mainstream. You can say that 48% of the population supporting Trump proves that it is mainstream, but his actions and policies are so far from any norm that I simply can't accept it.

It might be a different story if Biden really were Socialist, or Communist, or wanted to eliminate the commercial insurance industry, or any of the other things that Trump falsely portrayed him as. But that simply ain't the truth, no matter what the Trump supporters believe.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:34 am

A few thoughts...
-Looks like we will end up with an epic turnout, maybe 160 million voters cast ballots. Truly epic...
-In this way, the election showed that both Jim and Nate Silver (if you will) were right: the anti and pro Trump forces were epic in scope...
-yet clearly again, the pollsters underestimated the pro Trump forces in this country, he brought voters out of the woodwork, he made Latino men love him (despite labeling them rapists, murderers, thieves), he is a phenomena the likes of which I hope we never see again...
-obviously, I’m assuming Biden wins this in the end, taking back WI, MI and, yes, PA, along with AZ and maybe, just maybe GA...
-ironically, in the end PA will likely end up as Biden’s best ‘blue wall’ state!...
-this was a close election...
-but only because of our absurd, antiquated nearly 250 year-old compromise called the Electoral College. In any normal system, Biden won a strong — if not outright huge — victory today.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:35 am

Jim, WTF is up with Susan Collins? I realize her opponent is a "blow-in" but seriously, this women is as weak as they come. She's a laughingstock now and an embarrassment to the Senate.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:06 am

What to make of this first Maricopa tranche...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:11 am

Gerry, I have said from Day One that Sara Gideon could not beat Susan Collins.
We have seen many of these candidates before from the first district, liberal know it all Portlanders, who come into the second CD and get killed against the likes of Collins and Olympia Snowe.
There was a time last year when there was a crazy cast of characters who were going to run against Collins and there was a $4 million start up fund that had been raised.
I told everyone I would run against Collins if Sara Gideon, with all her money, did not run.
It would have been a carnival and I would have likely lost but I still say that a Democrat with more of my political bent would have had a better chance against Collins.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:12 am

Joe's lead eroding in AZ. Ugh.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:43 am

Getting nervous... again.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 am

Pennsylvania is looking good, Senator Casey says Joe is going to win by 100,000.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:47 am

Also, Nate says it looks strongest for Joe in PA.
I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing for us.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:51 am

Allegheny County is coming in 80 percent for Joe, and parts of Philly are coming in at 90.
PA Secretary of State says large numbers of results will be released overnight, we've got to get to a point where Joe is winning PA and expanding his lead, like in MI.
She also said she thinks almost all ballots will be counted by tomorrow night.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:52 am

And then there's Georgia....

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:10 pm

Biden's going to win three of AZ, NV, PA and GA, maybe all four. It would be something if he ends up with 300+.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:44 pm

It's going to be razor thin in AZ and I'm not sure there are enough votes left in GA.
And who knows what is going on in NV.
We need him to get into the lead in PA and stay there.
Hopefully we'll get there today.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:55 pm

50,000 votes left to count in GA, Joe needs about 65-70% of them.
It's going to be incredibly close.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:29 pm

What happens to all of the mailed ballots held up by the USPS?

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:34 pm

Too bad.
I must say, I’ve been impressed by how problem-fee this election has been.
So far...

jckba · Post by **jckba** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:09 pm

I thought this was funny so I figured I would share.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:18 pm

DavidG wrote:
AKR wrote:
JCNorthway wrote:It is looking good for Biden. BUT, it's a sad commentary on our state of affairs that it was anywhere near this close. It's frankly hard for me to fathom that nearly half of the voters in this country were able to bring themselves to vote for Trump. I guess it says something about our "moral" fabric.
You could also invert this and say, as crazy as Trump was, and how many people on the right don't like/trust him, they viewed the policy package the other side offered as worse, thus holding their nose and voting for him. And even of the Biden 'base' , how many of those really want what's on offer, versus just not wanting Trump anymore?

Still, that's not going to stop the winning side from treating a squeaker as if they have a San Francisco style mandate, and filling the cabinet with hard partisans. For better or worse that's the advantage of our winner take all systems rather than the parliamentary style of many other developed nations.

=======

Maybe in the interest of a lasting peace, there can be some 'global settlement' of DJT's various outstanding legal issues, if he agrees to leave the public sphere (no Twitter) and acknowledges that he was impeached.
No Arv, I have to disagree here. This is the classic "both sides" "false equivalence" argument. No doubt Trump supporters feel that way, and God knows none of us can be truly objective, but there is a huge difference in the degree to which the Trump and Biden camps deviate from the mainstream. You can say that 48% of the population supporting Trump proves that it is mainstream, but his actions and policies are so far from any norm that I simply can't accept it.

It might be a different story if Biden really were Socialist, or Communist, or wanted to eliminate the commercial insurance industry, or any of the other things that Trump falsely portrayed him as. But that simply ain't the truth, no matter what the Trump supporters believe.

In some imaginary world, if there was a warm & fuzzy version of Trump - with all the same policies (basically Juan Peron) - and less personal abrasiveness, I don't think this election would have been close. But like a Greek tragedy, what got him elected in the first place - that brash style - ended up being his comeuppance.

I really doubt there is massive material policy changes, although the style may feel different. Biden will get tougher on China, tougher on Tech Co's, and although the optics on immigration will look different (maybe less child separation etc.) there isn't going to be some mega deal like what the Gang of 7 pulled together in the Obama era. People forget that the 0 administration deported more any other prior administration ever. Maybe DACA comes back...but without a real Congressional action that just ends up being a hockey puck bouncing back forth depending on White occupancy.

The global mood will keep on darkening for this decade, and policies started the last few years will live on, even if they are no longer called 'Trumpism'.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:52 pm

If Biden pulls this off and the Senate stays in a stalemate my two main fears will be the future of the Affordable Healthcare Act and Roe v Wade, both in the hands of the Supreme Court. Biden will be stuck in the same situation as Obama and Trump with a gridlocked Congress resulting in nothing getting done except through executive order. Of course, I'll LMAO when the Republicans hypocritically scream executive overreach. What I do think Biden will be able to do is bring a national strategy to fighting Covid, restore the Federal bureaucracy to a functioning organization and at least give us a shot at starting to work on repairing our relationship with our allies. One thing that comes to mind is seeing Betsy Devos getting tossed out on her ass. I see her as one of the most damaging members of Trumps cabinet. I am a little concerned over who Joe would pick for his cabinet. Coming from Massachusetts, I'm not a huge Liz Warren fan and if she pushes to become Treasury Sec I'm not so sure how Wall Street will react.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:52 pm

Vote stopped in Philly?

Claret · Post by **Claret** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:10 pm

Biden pulling ahead this morning here in NV.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:15 pm

Watching that, excitedly. Go Nevada!
Seeing nothing about vote count being stopped in Philly.

Phil David · Post by **Phil David** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:20 pm

Only a little speck of orange left now, just got to keep on scrubbing.

DavidG · Post by **DavidG** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:22 pm

AKR wrote:
In some imaginary world, if there was a warm & fuzzy version of Trump - with all the same policies (basically Juan Peron) - and less personal abrasiveness, I don't think this election would have been close. But like a Greek tragedy, what got him elected in the first place - that brash style - ended up being his comeuppance.

I really doubt there is massive material policy changes, although the style may feel different. Biden will get tougher on China, tougher on Tech Co's, and although the optics on immigration will look different (maybe less child separation etc.) there isn't going to be some mega deal like what the Gang of 7 pulled together in the Obama era. People forget that the 0 administration deported more any other prior administration ever. Maybe DACA comes back...but without a real Congressional action that just ends up being a hockey puck bouncing back forth depending on White occupancy.

The global mood will keep on darkening for this decade, and policies started the last few years will live on, even if they are no longer called 'Trumpism'.

Fair enough, focusing on policy rather than the destruction of accepted norms and the rampant graft and corruption...

Immigration: sure both parties have some similarities and there were more deportations under Obama. As you say, though, how you go about it matters, and it’s hard to argue that there aren’t stark differences. DACA/Dreamers - for vs.against.

Law and order, maybe not that different historically but Trump and Biden appear worlds apart in willingness to address racial, social, and financial inequities in the criminal justice system. It may take a generation to effect change but it won’t happen if we don’t start.

Corporate and personal income tax. Big difference. Could debate what the "right" corporate tax rate is but Trump income tax policy clearly favors the 0.1%. Most voting for Trump based on tax policy voted against their own economic interests. 401k doing better? Meh - here I agree with you that it probably makes little difference who’s running the show - lots of other factors. That’s your area of expertise, not mine.

Healthcare - do I even need to point out the massive difference between Trump's efforts to eliminate the ACA and protections for pre-existing conditions and Biden's effort to expand it and offer insurance to more people? Verma at CMS has made it her life’s work to throw people off Medicaid. And overlying it all - the COVID response.

Women's and reproductive rights - night and day differences but moot as that ship has sailed with 3 Trump-appointed Federalist justices on the S.C.

Environment and global warming - again obvious differences in policy even though Biden isn’t going full GND.

All that said, I do agree with you that for many voters policy differences were overwhelmed by hyperpartisanship, even if we disagree on how substantial the policy differences are.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:58 pm

Orange Head speaking in an hour.

I predict a declaration of martial law.

Gerry M. · Post by **Gerry M.** » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:41 pm

I could agree with Trump and save us all a lot of trouble, "STOP THE COUNT!!" Of course that means the ENTIRE count, everywhere. Congrats Joe! The 46th President of the United States.

If we as a nation survive this nightmare and come to our senses, I would give anything to read how history reflects on one of our darkest periods.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:12 am

This dude needs to be blue-papered.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:45 am

Hillary Clinton for Acting Attorney General during the first 100 days?

tim · Post by **tim** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:28 am

Every single one of these close states are going to go into a recount. If we thought 2000 was bad, this will drag on for a long time, even after a winner is declared.

dhp · Post by **dhp** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:05 am

tim wrote:Every single one of these close states are going to go into a recount. If we thought 2000 was bad, this will drag on for a long time, even after a winner is declared.

Perhaps, but I don't think PA will end up being so close - Biden will win it by closer to 2%

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:14 am

I wonder about that Timmy.
I think there is reason to think Joe will beat Orange in Georgia.
He's going to win Pennsylvania by probably over 100,000 votes.
He's going to win Nevada.
It looks like the vote is going to narrow tomorrow morning in Arizona but Trump is topping out at the 59% of the remaining 285,000 he needs, he is going to do less than that in two 30,000 vote heavily Democrat counties. The Biden camp says they are going to win AZ, and they've been very straight. The young Democratic congressman from southern Arizona corroborates that.
With the expected win in Nevada, that would bring the EC to 306-232.
If it gets to that, we would be getting into true banana republic territory if that were reversed.
His niece just called it an "attempted coup," I think that's a great description.
I think if it gets to a 307-231 landslide, though, nobody will be able to save him.
He has done very longterm damage to our country, but he will not remain in office.

Go Arizona!

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:14 am

Agree with your 2% figure, dhp.