President Trump

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:38 pm

Looks like it's Lincoln Time...

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:41 pm

Hmm... I mostly agree with the top ten Jim, but not with the order you mentioned though...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:42 pm

I'd love to hear the top ten lists of you and others CV!

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 3:45 pm

JimHow wrote:I'd love to hear the top ten lists of you and others CV!

Will do it in the next couple of hours, and also will do my electoral college projections...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:25 pm

Clinton +4 in NBC tracking poll, and the race is a dead heat in Ohio, with one poll having it +1 for Trump and another at +1 for Clinton.
I've been thinking of moving Ohio into the Clinton column but I think I'll leave it with Trump for now.
Go LeBron! Go Cuyahoga County!
Deadline for all final electoral college vote predictions:
8pm EST tomorrow (Monday) night.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:34 pm

My final:
323 Hillary (or Hil-liar-y as on the Arkansas ballot),
215 Donald

I'm giving Hillary FL and NV (where Latinos and get-out-vote put her over the top in both states), NC (where she's lead nearly every poll), NH (which could be super close), and Maine's 2nd district (which wakes up and follows the rest of the Great State of Maine), but not Iowa nor Arizona nor Ohio nor Nebraska's competitive district.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:35 pm

Well done, Patrick, well done.

Right now, on Sunday morning, I'm feeling the momentum going towards Clinton.
Who knows what's going on in Michigan, but I'm thinking about adding Ohio and Arizona into the Clinton column, which would make it 351 for Clinton, to 187 for Trump. A few days ago a newspaper guy in AZ who really seemed to know what he was talking about said that Trump was in big trouble there, but then a couple polls came out that had trump up by about 5. But it seems like Sheriff Joe is projected to lose and it looks like there might be a reverse coattails effect in AZ, with a big Latino turnout. More than a few of the pundits out west are saying that the polls are under-counting the Latino vote. That seems to be the case in NV, and there is a history of that in NV, with Harry reid projected to lose 6 years ago but winning handily, and then Obama-Romney being tied in the polls on election day but Obama ending up winning by 7 points. I'm keeping my eye on Iowa as well, I was gonna shift that normally blue state to Clinton as well after a poll that had her +1 a couple days ago, but then another one came out with Trump +7, so who knows. Should be an interesting 24 hours of polling. Big rally with LeBron today in Cleveland.

Right now I'm keeping it at my current prediction of 322-216 in favor of Clinton.

AKR · Post by **AKR** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:35 pm

It will be a defeat of Trumpian proportions.

Part of his permanent record, never to be erased.

And his children will have to bear the family shame too for all time.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:44 pm

It will be a defeat of Trumpian proportions.

Oh man I would love to see it.
Especially if it is the Latino vote that does him in.

Not counting my chickens though.
I'll never forget 2000, when all the networks were calling it for Gore because the exit polls had him up in Florida, and then I remember about 10:30pm being on the phone with my mother, we were giddy, when Karl Rove came on TV and said, now hold on everybody, our internal numbers are showing something different….

jal · Post by **jal** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:52 pm

if it's a Hillary victory similar to Reagan vs Mondale, I expect DavidG to start drinking only what I'm drinking.

I hear you about counting chickens though, and the cart before the horse, and all of them metaphors. I would just love to hear the fat lady sing and the bus driver rev the engine

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:20 pm

JScott, how do things look in Cincinnati-Dayton?
I've always considered JScott's county the ultimate bellwether, where, electorally, at least, east meets west meets north meets south.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:22 pm

JimHow wrote:Not counting my chickens though.
I'll never forget 2000, when all the networks were calling it for Gore because the exit polls had him up in Florida, and then I remember about 10:30pm being on the phone with my mother, we were giddy, when Karl Rove came on TV and said, now hold on everybody, our internal numbers are showing something different….

A dark day in my (then) young life. My personal Vietnam.

I also remember my elation (and then subsequent dejection) in 2004, as I was falling asleep on the drive home after a long day of knocking on doors to get out the vote in the Philadelphia area, the radio saying it was looking really good for Kerry in Ohio...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:29 pm

Yeah I was listening to Hannity on the radio late afternoon in 2004.
He was suicidal. Many, including Kerry and others, believe shenanigans went on in Ohio in 2004.
That's another place where the exit polls were inexplicably wrong.
That's a fear I have here too,
Places like Florida and North Carolina, run by Republicans, suppressing the vote.
Even in Wisconsin I don't trust things with Scott Walker, who, along with Mike Pence and Marco Rubio, I consider one of the most dangerous men in politics.
We're already seeing the courts voting on partisan lines on these various injunctions.
Although, WTF with the US Supreme Court reversing the Arizona injunction, unless I'm mistaken if the 4 liberals had acted the lower court decision would have stood.
Ugh.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:56 pm

My Final Count:

Hillary - 308
Donald - 230

(Edited for calc error...)

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:01 pm

Well done, CV. Well done indeed. North Carolina is gonna be interesting.
That's why we're gonna have a good idea very early on what kind of night it's going to be.
Trump certainly has the advantage in campaign signs up here in the Maine second CD.
But I just went to my office on Lisbon Street and there are a ton of cars with Democratic bumper stickers on them near the Democratic headquarters, the Democratic GOTV is out in full force, and I'm seeing virtually nothing from the Trump campaign.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:03 pm

Interesting that you gave the Omaha CD to Clinton.
I gave it to Obama in 2008, and to Romney in 2012, which is the way it went each time.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:07 pm

Still watching to see if/when Nate Silver turns FL, NC, and NV from light red to light blue.
I predict he will by tomorrow evening. In 2012 he turned FL from red to blue at about 8pm on election eve, about an hour after I did.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:27 pm

JimHow wrote:Interesting that you gave the Omaha CD to Clinton.
I gave it to Obama in 2008, and to Romney in 2012, which is the way it went each time.

I still think Clinton will win omaha cd. It's democratic leaning and the oracle's popularity and involvement in the election will keep it in Dem column. Also, updated the pic to reflect that I gave NC to Donald. It's a hard choice and Clinton surrogates are blitzing the state in the eleventh hour, but I still feel it's not enough and therefore am putting NC in Republican column.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:39 pm

Let's get back to wine. 2 questions:
- What will you open if Hillary gets it?
- What will you open if Trump gets it?

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:10 pm

If I have to rearrange Jim's list (assuming his last reveal is Abe), here are my top ten US Presidents...with just few elaborations about my choice ranking...

10. Woodrow Wilson

9. Theodore Roosevelt

8. Eisenhower

7. Barack Obama
Apart from what Jim has said, he inherited a financial mess of epic proportions (worst since great depression), and two wars. When 9/11 happened imagine how the world was 'with us', and soon after how the Bush administration squandered that good will through iraq war. Iraq war made our allies wary of the US's intentions and what not. It was about turn in US allies' goodwill toward us and Obama inherited that mess too. Not to mention, the implict/explicit racial bias against him, and polarization of politics of 'oppose everything' were undergirding any of the administrative progress. Still, he was steady without any scandals and trying to chug along trying to rebuild what was lost under previous administration.

For all the good about the social media, it also amplifies the differences, polarization and the discourse. Obama's presidency is in an age of social media and his administration has to navigate the polarization of politics, which is greater than ever before (or greater than for any President before him). It makes all the more difficult to get anything done.

Just look at any comments on social media, news articles, etc. Even the comments about non-political news items degenerate into bitter political comments. In olden days, people had differences but there was hardly anyway for others to know and arouse passions in such proportions. Now with the media and social media, all anyone sees is bitterness. That makes them bitter also and they become further polarized about issues and ideology, resulting in no compromise and my way or highway attitude...How can we make progress in such environment?

6. Thomas Jefferson
His declaration that "all men are created equal....life, liberty and pursuit of happiness..." rings hollow while he owned over 300 slaves...I know the times were different and circumstances were different, but still he could have done more about "his slaves" if not about others'. That personal act alone would have gone very far. But I will give him the credit that -- his administration passed laws outlawing and banning further importing of slaves, although not enforced well. Atleast, it was a first step towards progress, but nonetheless he drops a bit in my ranking...

5. James Madison

4. John F Kennedy

3. Franklin Roosevelt
He deserves my third spot. IMO, unless US entered the WWII, Europe would most likely have not won the war. I am not diminishing the resistance of other allies against the axis, but I personally think US made the difference in the outcome of the war, forever changing the destiny of the europeans and others. He presided over the war in the US and the allies were able to finally prevail. His presidency was not just about the people of the US, but also the peoples of other countries. That's why I put him above JFK and the rest. But one blemish under his presidency about the war, is the issue of the Japanese Internment camps.

The new deal and SS system IMO is a good thing (for various reasons in comparison to what exists in other countries), but I would not have started the SS system the way it operates. Well, that's a different discussion and deserves a separate thread.

2. Abraham Lincoln
Obviously he deserves this spot as it is evident that we still have a union. He did that in pressing times without caving to pressure, politics and hesitation.

1. George Washington
I put him on top, because he was instrumental in creating the concept of democracy. Yes, in ancient days democracy existed, but only in nominal form or in an indirect form. Also, it is very hard to trailblaze a new concept and make it work, especially with such scale. It involves conviction, communication, persuasion, leadership and most importantly, the art of bringing about unity in achieving a common goal. IMO, there is only one other person other than George Washington in the world who tops him in this trait.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:55 pm

Great stuff.

Meantime, wow… Breaking news from the FBI director.
Good news for Hillary but it just keeps those damned emails in the news.
Jesus, just stay out of it bozo.

jal · Post by **jal** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:08 pm

No criminality in Clinton emails - FBI

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37892138

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:34 pm

COMEY TO US - FBI investigates Hillary and her private, reckless, illegal server (just like Colin's and Condi's emails, but never mind), nothing to see there, oops. Meanwhile, did I mention Hillary and her private illegal server? Nothing to see there, but still, when there's FBI smoke...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:36 pm

No shit.
Thanks for nothing buddy.
Ah well, watching Hillary with LeBron right now.
Good stuff in Cleveland.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:42 pm

Bruuuuce coming on the campaign trail with Hillary tomorrow….

Nicklasss · Post by **Nicklasss** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:00 am

How will it end? Even in Canada, we're curious about how our best neighbour will vote.

Nic

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:26 am

JimHow wrote:Great stuff.

Meantime, wow… Breaking news from the FBI director.
Good news for Hillary but it just keeps those damned emails in the news.
Jesus, just stay out of it bozo.

Seriously, he is a Bozo. If the law enforcement is investigating about someone or about something they won't tell until they finish their preliminary findings, but why talk about it in the middle of it. Even that is apparent for someone not in the law enforcement. If something is found out, I am all for the course of the law. But as someone in the law enforcement for decades, trying to interject before any conclusion is reached, he is doing a disservice. If he has done out of pressure, then it's even worse as it proves that he is malleable and fallible...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:34 am

If we had a population that could handle information calmly and intelligently, then it would not have been a big deal. But surely he had to know that it would be misrepresented by this maniacal demagogue and his henchmen stooges Newt, Rudy, Chris, and all of their lackeys at Fox News and the little, little Republican twits in the U.S. House of Representatives.

And I've had just about enough of this Kellyanne Conway and the Trump boys and all these phonies on the Republican side. I mean, they're tweeting that Trump was the victim of an assassination attempt yesterday, for crying out loud. And they are just flat out lying about this FBI "investigation." What phonies.

Racer Chris · Post by **Racer Chris** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:27 am

JimHow wrote:...
, little Republican twits in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Pinhead in chief, Trey Gowdy.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:33 am

Racer Chris wrote:
JimHow wrote:...
, little Republican twits in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Pinhead in chief, Trey Gowdy.

Don't forget Jason Chaffetz. He is enormously ambitious and can stoop and go to any levels to attain power and prestige. He is Newt, Hyde and Buchanan, all rolled in one...But only silver lining is, he is from Utah and powerpkay dynamics would have been different he were from Deep south or midwest

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:37 am

Yes, Trey and Jason, there is a dynamic duo.

It's going to be awful but the Dems need to win the presidency and senate first and then worry about taking on those clowns.

Wow I don't know if you've been hearing The Donald's speeches in the past 24 hours about "rigged" elections, he's really sounding desperate.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:39 am

BD,

Every four years we should have interested participants provide projections and whoever gets close to the actual count should be awarded a bottle of that presidential year vintage bordeaux...(with the rest of participants pitching in)...

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:42 am

I like it, CV, this year seems a lot tougher to predict than the two previous presidential elections.
Like the previous elections, I give weight to whether a wave is developing in deciding how to go in close state elections.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:44 am

Boy, we predicted this was going to be an awful campaign and it did not disappoint.
The airwaves right now are white hot with hatred.
I really wonder if the country is going to be able to recover from this one.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:45 am

JimHow wrote:Yes, Trey and Jason, there is a dynamic duo.

It's going to be awful but the Dems need to win the presidency and senate first and then worry about taking on those clowns.

Wow I don't know if you've been hearing The Donald's speeches in the past 24 hours about "rigged" elections, he's really sounding desperate.

Well, I hate to say 'I said so'. That's what I posted earlier. If he is behind, he says so without any evidence and personal shame. Nobody can reign on him and he doesn't have the ability to think and take advice. More than anything else, that was 800 pound gorilla for me. And presidency is all about listening and taking advice from advisors before making a sound decision.

Chateau Vin · Post by **Chateau Vin** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:49 am

Being in CA, it's not that bad with the airwaves mainly about props. But I can't imagine the TV ads beat down in swing states. That must be depressing...

But in 2 days we are free and free at last...

No more watching the faces and their illogical and sycophant oriented defense of the candidates from the likes of Conway, jeffrey lord, donna brazile, gloria borger, rudy giuliani, newt, podesta, kaleigh, etc.

AlohaArtakaHoundsong · Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:56 am

I thought Comey would wait until 4:45 pm on Monday. Had the dude all wrong I guess.

JimHow · Post by **JimHow** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:05 am

Hey, what the heck, only about 30,000,000 votes have been cast since his announcement 9 days ago. What's the big deal.

Blanquito · Post by **Blanquito** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:57 am

AlohaArtakaHoundsong wrote:I thought Comey would wait until 4:45 pm on Monday. Had the dude all wrong I guess.

That's because it's all rigged, naturally.

Antoine · Post by **Antoine** » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:06 am

FBI: will it get it right?
Step 1: Hillary got a 12% lead and threatened to take Congress as well:
FBI takes action to avoid Democrat taking it all
Step 2: Trump ratings go up big time and threatens to take the Presidency with a Republican Congress
FBI takes action to avoid Trump taking over the nuclear button and blasting the World

Will it work? The Jury is still out....but managing this election is not a piece of cake....
What will the US get? Possibly an impotent Democrat President with a hostile Republican congress...little change there...

God saves Democracy...