President Trump
Re: President Trump
Indeed, let begin the longest 83 days in history...
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Watching the brazenness of Herr Orange still over 80 days out, it is clear he is going to stop at nothing to retain the Oval Office.
We are about to see things we never thought possible.
And when you add in the stupidity factor of the U.S. electorate, I'm pretty depressed. I'm not sure the Dems AND the American public are up to the task of taking on this monster.
I'm going to swing wildly back into the Trump column in both the HQ and electoral college projection:
Adjusting some of the numbers:
How Quotient:
HQ = 55
Electoral College Projection:
268 - 270
We are about to see things we never thought possible.
And when you add in the stupidity factor of the U.S. electorate, I'm pretty depressed. I'm not sure the Dems AND the American public are up to the task of taking on this monster.
I'm going to swing wildly back into the Trump column in both the HQ and electoral college projection:
Adjusting some of the numbers:
How Quotient:
HQ = 55
Electoral College Projection:
268 - 270
Re: President Trump
And here comes the election rigging. Dems are being as stupid and ineffective in opposing this USPS vote suppression scheme as they were in 2016. They’re talking about sending letters? Issue some Congressional subpoenas today for appearances tomorrow and go to court immediately if they don’t comply. Have lawyers screaming and pounding on the doors of the courts. Take a lesson from Bush/Gore and fight like a Republican.
Re: President Trump
Couldn't agree more.DavidG wrote:And here comes the election rigging. Dems are being as stupid and ineffective in opposing this USPS vote suppression scheme as they were in 2016. They’re talking about sending letters? Issue some Congressional subpoenas today for appearances tomorrow and go to court immediately if they don’t comply. Have lawyers screaming and pounding on the doors of the courts. Take a lesson from Bush/Gore and fight like a Republican.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Lololol...
What do you mean, we have AOC and the woke millennials.
That's going to get the job done, no?
Who are we kidding... We need the nasty old men to get the job done. As usual. I hope Joe has a few in his camp. This is dirty business, something the millennial crowd is not up to.
Cheer up, though, the election has been wrapped up by Joe for months, at least according to Nate Silver and the rest of the mainstream media that had Hillary as a 91% likelihood of winning with ten days to go.
What do you mean, we have AOC and the woke millennials.
That's going to get the job done, no?
Who are we kidding... We need the nasty old men to get the job done. As usual. I hope Joe has a few in his camp. This is dirty business, something the millennial crowd is not up to.
Cheer up, though, the election has been wrapped up by Joe for months, at least according to Nate Silver and the rest of the mainstream media that had Hillary as a 91% likelihood of winning with ten days to go.
Re: President Trump
Not sure about 10 days before the election (which was right about the time when Comey gave us his October surprise), but the final 538 forecast of the 2016 election gave Hillary a 71% chance of wining, which incidentally is right about where they have Biden today.JimHow wrote:Lololol...
What do you mean, we have AOC and the woke millennials.
That's going to get the job done, no?
Who are we kidding... We need the nasty old men to get the job done. As usual. I hope Joe has a few in his camp. This is dirty business, something the millennial crowd is not up to.
Cheer up, though, the election has been wrapped up by Joe for months, at least according to Nate Silver and the rest of the mainstream media that had Hillary as a 91% likelihood of winning with ten days to go.
The exit polling data from 2016 is very clear — late deciding voters (who didn’t like either candidate) voted overwhelmingly for Trump, more than 3 to 1 and Comey’s stunt probably made the difference. But given the inside straight that Trump needed to pull it off, probably a dozen things needed to happen all together for him to win.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
This time around I think it’s pretty simple.
Trump is going to have to steal Wisconsin (and hold Arizona).
And he’s doing everything he can to make it happen, without even trying to disguise his brazenness.
Trump is going to have to steal Wisconsin (and hold Arizona).
And he’s doing everything he can to make it happen, without even trying to disguise his brazenness.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Biden lead down to 4 points nationwide according to CNN poll, down to one point in 15 battleground states:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics ... index.html
Now I'm seeing a path to victory that is higher than 270 for Orange Head.
How Quotient:
HQ = 60
Electoral College Projection:
254 - 284
This is really depressing. I think I'll go to sleep until November 4th, wake me when this punishment is over.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics ... index.html
Now I'm seeing a path to victory that is higher than 270 for Orange Head.
How Quotient:
HQ = 60
Electoral College Projection:
254 - 284
This is really depressing. I think I'll go to sleep until November 4th, wake me when this punishment is over.
Re: President Trump
It is clear the American public are unaware of the damage done to their reputation in the whole world...
Any dictator mst be wetting his pants when given a lesson of democracy and values...
Putin soon to look like a paragon of virtue by comparison...
...but, of course, Trump is only a symptom as a Canadian wrote recently in a number of articles ... so if US does not change why should he not be reelected?...
Any dictator mst be wetting his pants when given a lesson of democracy and values...
Putin soon to look like a paragon of virtue by comparison...
...but, of course, Trump is only a symptom as a Canadian wrote recently in a number of articles ... so if US does not change why should he not be reelected?...
Re: President Trump
It is clear the American public are unaware of the damage done to their reputation in the whole world... (or simply don't care...)
Any dictator mst be wetting his pants when given a lesson of democracy and values...
Putin soon to look like a paragon of virtue by comparison...
...but, of course, Trump is only a symptom as a Canadian wrote recently in a number of articles ... so if US does not change why should he not be reelected?...
Any dictator mst be wetting his pants when given a lesson of democracy and values...
Putin soon to look like a paragon of virtue by comparison...
...but, of course, Trump is only a symptom as a Canadian wrote recently in a number of articles ... so if US does not change why should he not be reelected?...
Re: President Trump
Jim, you do yourself a disservice throwing Nate Silver under the bus. 538 had Trump with a 29% chance of winning just before the 2016 election, more than nearly anyone else. 538 also gives Trump a 28% chance of winning in 2020 right now - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
The problem is that lots of people can't conceptualize what 28% (or 10%) actually means. Underdogs do win.
Lots of people got their modeling wrong in 2016, and the same will happen in 2020. But Nate Silver's modeling was better than nearly everyone's in 2016, and I'd believe it more than most in 2020.
The problem is that lots of people can't conceptualize what 28% (or 10%) actually means. Underdogs do win.
Lots of people got their modeling wrong in 2016, and the same will happen in 2020. But Nate Silver's modeling was better than nearly everyone's in 2016, and I'd believe it more than most in 2020.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
I understand your angst, but need to calm down!!JimHow wrote:Biden lead down to 4 points nationwide according to CNN poll, down to one point in 15 battleground states:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics ... index.html
Now I'm seeing a path to victory that is higher than 270 for Orange Head.
How Quotient:
HQ = 60
Electoral College Projection:
254 - 284
This is really depressing. I think I'll go to sleep until November 4th, wake me when this punishment is over.
Biden has a better path than Trump. Like I said before, Biden has a very good chance in PA, but Orange can squeeze FL to go his way with the help/mischief of his accomplices in FL. My long complaint has been about dems needing 'boots on the ground' push for the turnout (esp for PA), which sadly, I am not seeing enough. Ground game, ground game, ground game...Is DNC establishment listening?
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
What do you mean, CV, from what I've been reading here this race is locked up for the Dems, we're not only going to win the presidency, but the senate too, Orange is gonna go to jail... What's this about needing boots on the ground? I thought it was a done deal....
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
Nope, the race is not locked up for Dems! Dems MIGHT win senate, but LESS LIKELY. Orange WON'T got to jail, but might get entangled with law regarding business dealings... That's my take...JimHow wrote:What do you mean, CV, from what I've been reading here this race is locked up for the Dems, we're not only going to win the presidency, but the senate too, Orange is gonna go to jail... What's this about needing boots on the ground? I thought it was a done deal....
Maybe some left leaning outlets might be salivating about the prospects you mentioned, but I do not see it that way...I was playing with 270towin interactive map, and here is my brief summary about what I understood...
1. There is no single critical/battleground state...
2. The key states are PA and FL followed by WI and to some extent NV (will explain)
3. Here are the scenarios...
3A. If Biden wins PA and FL, Biden is through
3B. If Trump wins PA and FL, Trump it is...
3C. If Trump wins FL and loses PA, then Trump MUST win WI to get 269-269. To get a clear majority, Trump must win next best chance, NV. But if PA goes to Biden, it's easier for WI to go that way...That means if Trump wins FL and Biden wins PA, then Biden has an edge to squeek out a win with atleast 273-265 by winning WI also...
3D. If Trump wins PA and loses FL, Biden has even more clear path...In this case, Biden can afford to lose not only WI, but also NV and Biden can still eek out a win with 272-266...
So looking at scenarios 3C and 3D (especially 3C), Biden/DNC have to have a good game plan and effort to win PA and WI, to say the least. If DNC can do everything to have boots on the ground (BTW republicans are knocking on the doors to get turnout while dems are sitting at home because of pandemic issues) and make sure the turnout is well enough for dems, then Biden can claim PA and WI...That's why I feel turnout for dems is key in those two states...But to assure victory, I wouldn't neglect MI a bit and work on PA, WI and MI voters...
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Boy, I just can't disagree more, CV.
If PA is in play -- if Joe can't win his birth state -- he is dead as a doorknob.
The scenario most likely for me is your 3C, except it looks like you are giving ME-2 or NE-1 to Joe?
Trump is going to win ME-2, the campaign signs up here are literally 100-1 in favor of Orange Head, trust me, I am not exaggerating.
And also, Trump is not gonna lose FL.
If it is 269-269 -- a very distinct possibility -- we lose in the House of Representatives.
Joe's winning PA has to be a given. If Joe can't win PA, it means he's not carrying some of those other states you are hoping for.
As I have said for months now, it is all about Wisconsin. Will Orange steal Wisconsin?
And... If Orange wins Wisconsin, then the only other outside hope we will have is Arizona. A VERY slim hope.
If Joe can't win PA, MI, and WI, he is just another Hillary.
That's been the refrain I've been hearing from the Democratic Party elites... Joe will win those rust belt states that Hillary couldn't bring in.
Well, we'll see about that. If he can't win WI, MI, AND PA -- all three -- he is sunk.
The biggest problem I have with your analysis is that PA is even in your discussion. If we are even TALKING about PA -- and we are, with good reason, because Orange is rallying there, like he did in 2016 -- then we are in BIG, big trouble.
If PA is in play -- if Joe can't win his birth state -- he is dead as a doorknob.
The scenario most likely for me is your 3C, except it looks like you are giving ME-2 or NE-1 to Joe?
Trump is going to win ME-2, the campaign signs up here are literally 100-1 in favor of Orange Head, trust me, I am not exaggerating.
And also, Trump is not gonna lose FL.
If it is 269-269 -- a very distinct possibility -- we lose in the House of Representatives.
Joe's winning PA has to be a given. If Joe can't win PA, it means he's not carrying some of those other states you are hoping for.
As I have said for months now, it is all about Wisconsin. Will Orange steal Wisconsin?
And... If Orange wins Wisconsin, then the only other outside hope we will have is Arizona. A VERY slim hope.
If Joe can't win PA, MI, and WI, he is just another Hillary.
That's been the refrain I've been hearing from the Democratic Party elites... Joe will win those rust belt states that Hillary couldn't bring in.
Well, we'll see about that. If he can't win WI, MI, AND PA -- all three -- he is sunk.
The biggest problem I have with your analysis is that PA is even in your discussion. If we are even TALKING about PA -- and we are, with good reason, because Orange is rallying there, like he did in 2016 -- then we are in BIG, big trouble.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Maybe the problems are:
1. Joe is just a weak candidate.
2. The Democratic Party repeated the mistake of 2016 and snubbed the Bernie crowd... again.
3. We are just a pathetic, deeply racist and misogynistic country -- all we are good at is hating minorities, worshipping money, carrying guns, and building bomber jets -- and the Kamala Harris pick will have a net negative effect on the ticket.
1. Joe is just a weak candidate.
2. The Democratic Party repeated the mistake of 2016 and snubbed the Bernie crowd... again.
3. We are just a pathetic, deeply racist and misogynistic country -- all we are good at is hating minorities, worshipping money, carrying guns, and building bomber jets -- and the Kamala Harris pick will have a net negative effect on the ticket.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
JimHow wrote:Boy, I just can't disagree more, CV.
You are saying that you are disagreeing with me, but you are saying in your last paragraph about PA, WI and MI, what I was saying...
I am giving ME-2 to Orange and NE-1 to Joe...JimHow wrote: If PA is in play -- if Joe can't win his birth state -- he is dead as a doorknob.
The scenario most likely for me is your 3C, except it looks like you are giving ME-2 or NE-1 to Joe?
Trump is going to win ME-2, the campaign signs up here are literally 100-1 in favor of Orange Head.
Yes, if PA goes to Trump, then most likely scenario would be be 3A. But can we say with certainty that Joe can win PA? As of now I can, but he/DNC can't take it lightly and they should make sure that PA goes to Joe. That's why I want PA to be absolute wall of fire, and work from there...JimHow wrote: Trust me, Trump is not gonna lose FL.
If it is 269-269 -- a very distinct possibility -- we lose in the House of Representatives.
Joe's winning PA has to be a given. If Joe can't win PA, it means he's not carrying some of those other states you are hoping for.
The chances of Orange stealing an election in WI are less than the chances of he stealing it in FL. Atleast, WI has a democratic governor. But I am certain that Orange would attempt to do so in WI by using USPS issue or any other issue...JimHow wrote:As I have said for months now, it is all about Wisconsin. Will Orange steal Wisconsin?
No, I have put AZ in Red column all along...JimHow wrote:And... If Orange wins Wisconsin, then the only other outside hope we will have is Arizona. A VERY slim hope.
Yes, PA is in my discussion because WI, MI and PA wern't in the discussion in 2016 with the so called "wall of fire" for Hillary...Looking back, it looks like She/DNC took those states for granted. Why should Joe take PA for granted? If PA is not in discussion (PA going to Joe, like scenario 3C), then it will be even more easier for Joe because he has to concentrate on WI and MI...JimHow wrote:If Joe can't win PA, MI, and WI, he is just another Hillary.
That's been the refrain I've been hearing from the Democratic Party elites... Joe will win those rust belt states that Hillary couldn't bring in.
Well, we'll see about that. If he can't win WI, MI, AND PA -- all three -- he is sunk.
The biggest problem I have with your analysis is that PA is even in your discussion. If we are even TALKING about PA -- and we are, with good reason, because Orange is rallying there, like he did in 2016 -- then we are in BIG, big trouble.
From dems perspective, protect the house PA it is, work on WI and MI and Joe will be fine. This is much easier for Joe/DNC than for Donald trying to steal elections in WI and FL...
Last edited by Chateau Vin on Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: President Trump
US = Bel(l)a R US... If Trump loses, he will claim victory and call Putin for help...
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
Well, you are saying a number of scenarios, CV.
But you are talking about "protecting" PA and "working on" MI and WI.
There's no "protecting" or "working on" these states.
These are (all) MUST WIN. They all have to be a given, no ifs, ands or buts.
They were must win for Hillary, and she lost all three.
And I TOTALLY disagree with you on Wisconsin, I've been calling Wisconsin "the Florida of the north," it is every bit as corrupt as Florida, yeah, they have that nice professorial governor, but their legislature and judiciary are totally bought and sold, like Iowa. I think Wisconsin is even more corrupt than Florida. Florida is kind of like Trump, they are unapologetically, unabashedly corrupt. Wisconsin is like Pence, they have that nice pleasant midwestern corruption, they smile at you while they are ripping you off.
But you are talking about "protecting" PA and "working on" MI and WI.
There's no "protecting" or "working on" these states.
These are (all) MUST WIN. They all have to be a given, no ifs, ands or buts.
They were must win for Hillary, and she lost all three.
And I TOTALLY disagree with you on Wisconsin, I've been calling Wisconsin "the Florida of the north," it is every bit as corrupt as Florida, yeah, they have that nice professorial governor, but their legislature and judiciary are totally bought and sold, like Iowa. I think Wisconsin is even more corrupt than Florida. Florida is kind of like Trump, they are unapologetically, unabashedly corrupt. Wisconsin is like Pence, they have that nice pleasant midwestern corruption, they smile at you while they are ripping you off.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
Everybody knows PA is a must win for Joe. That's why I am saying he/DNC should do everything they can to assure that victory...And that's why I am also saying the turnout for dems is the key in three states, PA, WI and MI. That's the only way you can beat Trump, and overcome the obstacles being put on by the repubs...what's wrong with that?JimHow wrote:Well, you are saying a number of scenarios, CV.
But you are talking about "protecting" PA and "working on" MI and WI.
There's no "protecting" or "working on" these states.
These are (all) MUST WIN. They all have to be a given, no ifs, ands or buts.
They were must win for Hillary, and she lost all three.
And I TOTALLY disagree with you on Wisconsin, I've been calling Wisconsin "the Florida of the north," it is every bit as corrupt as Florida, yeah, they have that nice professorial governor, but their legislature and judiciary are totally bought and sold, like Iowa. I think Wisconsin is even more corrupt than Florida. Florida is kind of like Trump, they are unapologetically, unabashedly corrupt. Wisconsin is like Pence, they have that nice pleasant midwestern corruption, they smile at you while they are ripping you off.
You are saying these are must wins. I am saying so far so good for Joe, but lamenting that DNC is not doing enough to have a higher turnout. If there is higher turnout for dems, it becomes even more harder for Orange to steal an election...My concern is that Joe/DNC are not paying enough attention to have people register and send mail in ballots way before election day (if it helps overcome the post mark issues) and have people followup the eligible voters, etc...Joe has enough voters to beat Trump in PA, WI and MI, but turnout of those voters is crucial...And I wish the DNC is doing more in that arena...
Last edited by Chateau Vin on Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: President Trump
What I'm saying is that we should not even be talking about PA.
PA should be like CA or NY or MA.
This is why we are in big trouble. Somewhere along the way we lost states like IA and OH, and now we are reduced to having to "protect" PA and "work on" MI and WI.
If these states are not a "given" after a catastrophic pandemic, depression-like unemployment, and race riots rivaling the late '60s, then Orange will prance to victory in November...
Which is what I've been predicting for months.
PA should be like CA or NY or MA.
This is why we are in big trouble. Somewhere along the way we lost states like IA and OH, and now we are reduced to having to "protect" PA and "work on" MI and WI.
If these states are not a "given" after a catastrophic pandemic, depression-like unemployment, and race riots rivaling the late '60s, then Orange will prance to victory in November...
Which is what I've been predicting for months.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
JimHow wrote:What I'm saying is that we should not even be talking about PA.
PA should be like CA or NY or MA.
This is why we are in big trouble. Somewhere along the way we lost states like IA and OH, and now we are reduced to having to "protect" PA and "work on" MI and WI.
If these states are not a "given" after a catastrophic pandemic, depression-like unemployment, and race riots rivaling the late '60s, then Orange will prance to victory in November...
Which is what I've been predicting for months.
Hmmm....Other than urban areas in and around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, vast swaths of PA state is rural and republican...I never considered that PA can be compared to dark blue states such as CA, NY and MA where there are left leaning immigrant and urban populations....But Joe, with his blue collar background can corral the working class and rural vote better than any other democrat, and that's about it...
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Re: President Trump
Oh boy, we are really having a different look through the electoral prism.
I'll have to go back and look at the numbers for Bill Clinton and Obama, but I'm pretty sure PA has been one of the bedrocks of Democratic presidential election victories.
I think Bill and Barack won PA by handy margins all 4 times they ran. And Ohio too. Now we don't even talk about Ohio, or Iowa, those states are just assumed to be going red.
And now we're getting to the point where PA, MI, and WI are in question.
And if that's the case, then we have lost the heartland.
And if we have lost the heartland, we are dead.
It's just feeling like the horse is out of the barn.
We have fallen and just can't get back up.
Whatever cliches you want to use.
I mean, QAnon is now in the halls of Congress.
Our Prez is, without apology, talking about disabling the post office going into an election.
We are a country run by a tin pot dictatorship. We even have our own state TV.
We have become a joke.
A laughingstock, around the world. People actually feel sorry for us.
And wait til Orange becomes enabled even more by a "legitimate" re-election.
It will be amazing the things we will see.
I'll have to go back and look at the numbers for Bill Clinton and Obama, but I'm pretty sure PA has been one of the bedrocks of Democratic presidential election victories.
I think Bill and Barack won PA by handy margins all 4 times they ran. And Ohio too. Now we don't even talk about Ohio, or Iowa, those states are just assumed to be going red.
And now we're getting to the point where PA, MI, and WI are in question.
And if that's the case, then we have lost the heartland.
And if we have lost the heartland, we are dead.
It's just feeling like the horse is out of the barn.
We have fallen and just can't get back up.
Whatever cliches you want to use.
I mean, QAnon is now in the halls of Congress.
Our Prez is, without apology, talking about disabling the post office going into an election.
We are a country run by a tin pot dictatorship. We even have our own state TV.
We have become a joke.
A laughingstock, around the world. People actually feel sorry for us.
And wait til Orange becomes enabled even more by a "legitimate" re-election.
It will be amazing the things we will see.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
Yes, Bill and Obama won PA, but Hillary lost it. So why should Joe take it for granted and think that it is a lock? Hillary lost in 2016 because she ignored MI and WI. I mean, Joe has the votes in PA. But data doesn't vote. Shouldn't he work for the votes, and not just assume that people will vote for him?JimHow wrote:Oh boy, we are really having a different look through the electoral prism.
I'll have to go back and look at the numbers for Bill Clinton and Obama, but I'm pretty sure PA has been one of the bedrocks of Democratic presidential election victories.
Well, that's the way I see it...JimHow wrote:I think Bill and Barack won PA by handy margins all 4 times they ran. And Ohio too. Now we don't even talk about Ohio, or Iowa, those states are just assumed to be going red.
And now we're getting to the point where PA, MI, and WI are in question.
True, but I think all is not lost in rust belt states when it comes to following a demagogue...JimHow wrote:And if that's the case, then we have lost the heartland.
And if we have lost the heartland, we are dead.
True thatJimHow wrote:It's just feeling like the horse is out of the barn.
We have fallen and just can't get back up.
Whatever cliches you want to use.
I mean, QAnon is now in the halls of Congress.
Our Prez is, without apology, talking about disabling the post office going into an election.
True that...20+ years in the making...JimHow wrote:We are a country run by a tin pot dictatorship. We even have our own state TV.
True that too...and that's what I hear from overseas...JimHow wrote:We have become a joke.
A laughingstock, around the world. People actually feel sorry for us.
Sign of times...JimHow wrote:And wait til Orange becomes enabled even more by a "legitimate" re-election.
It will be amazing the things we will see.
But having said that, I hope that last people's choice 4 years ago is an aberration...
Re: President Trump
PA's politics has never been solid blue. I lived there probably longer than anyplace, and much of my family is still there. The Democrats that won statewide tended to be moderate (Gov. Bob Casey was pro-life, something verboten in the Democratic Party). Republicans were a mix (you had both extremist Santorum and moderate Spector. I worked on the Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky campaign back in 94, after she was the final vote passing the Clinton tax increases. She paid a heavy price for that, and lost to Jon Fox.
In addition, Hillary put a ton of effort into PA. Unlike the Midwest states, PA was always in question, and there were lots of outreach there. The key is to get the vote out in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and to win the suburbs.
In addition, Hillary put a ton of effort into PA. Unlike the Midwest states, PA was always in question, and there were lots of outreach there. The key is to get the vote out in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and to win the suburbs.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
I agree...IMO, PA was never a key deciding factor in presidential elections as far as I can remember, but it was never a dark red or a dark blue state going back decades... and yes, Hillary put out some effort in PA (though I wouldn’t call a lot), but completely ignored WI and MI, thinking that those three states were a lock...I remember her campaign even salivated about Arizona and Carolinas and were talking about flipping them and spent money over there, thereby putting the cart before the horse... I don’t want Joe to make the same mistake and want his campaign to make rock solid effort in PA, WI and MI, if he wants to beat Orange...tim wrote:PA's politics has never been solid blue. I lived there probably longer than anyplace, and much of my family is still there. The Democrats that won statewide tended to be moderate (Gov. Bob Casey was pro-life, something verboten in the Democratic Party). Republicans were a mix (you had both extremist Santorum and moderate Spector. I worked on the Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky campaign back in 94, after she was the final vote passing the Clinton tax increases. She paid a heavy price for that, and lost to Jon Fox.
In addition, Hillary put a ton of effort into PA. Unlike the Midwest states, PA was always in question, and there were lots of outreach there. The key is to get the vote out in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and to win the suburbs.
Re: President Trump
There is no question that Clinton put a lot of effort into Pennsylvania. Just look at the data:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary ... d=43356783
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary ... d=43356783
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
CV, name the last Democratic president who didn't win Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is the Democratic Texas. If PA is not a given the year you run, you lose.
Bill Clinton won PA in 1992 and 1996.
Al Gore won PA in a losing cause in 2000.
John Kerry won PA in a losing cause in 2004.
Barack Obama won PA in both 2008 and 2012.
Then, Hillary lost PA in 2016 for the first time in almost 30 years.
If hometown boy Joe Biden can't win PA, kiss this election goodbye.
But I'm surprised we are even talking about this, I thought we were going to win this election in a lock, win FL by 13 points, even win TX, GA, FL, NC, etc., etc., leading to the arrest and incarceration of DJT....
Ooops.
Pennsylvania is the Democratic Texas. If PA is not a given the year you run, you lose.
Bill Clinton won PA in 1992 and 1996.
Al Gore won PA in a losing cause in 2000.
John Kerry won PA in a losing cause in 2004.
Barack Obama won PA in both 2008 and 2012.
Then, Hillary lost PA in 2016 for the first time in almost 30 years.
If hometown boy Joe Biden can't win PA, kiss this election goodbye.
But I'm surprised we are even talking about this, I thought we were going to win this election in a lock, win FL by 13 points, even win TX, GA, FL, NC, etc., etc., leading to the arrest and incarceration of DJT....
Ooops.
- Hm$(still)
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Re: President Trump
I am just going to throw this out there. For a purchase price of about $500K, one can buy a place in Portugal, get a resident visa and be only 5 years and a rudimentary test of Portuguese away from EU citizenship.
hm$
hm$
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
Looking at the same data, so did Trump...tim wrote:There is no question that Clinton put a lot of effort into Pennsylvania. Just look at the data:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary ... d=43356783
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
If PA is given for Joe, why are we even having the discussion? If you think PA is a lock for Joe, then why is Joe not winning in your predictions and why is your How Quotient is it is what you are giving?JimHow wrote:CV, name the last Democratic president who didn't win Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is the Democratic Texas. If PA is not a given the year you run, you lose.
Bill Clinton won PA in 1992 and 1996.
Al Gore won PA in a losing cause in 2000.
John Kerry won PA in a losing cause in 2004.
Barack Obama won PA in both 2008 and 2012.
Then, Hillary lost PA in 2016 for the first time in almost 30 years.
If hometown boy Joe Biden can't win PA, kiss this election goodbye.
But I'm surprised we are even talking about this, I thought we were going to win this election in a lock, win FL by 13 points, even win TX, GA, FL, NC, etc., etc., leading to the arrest and incarceration of DJT....
Ooops.
Re: President Trump
That's never been in question. But I hear all the time that Clinton ignored PA. She didn't. She knew it was in play.Chateau Vin wrote:Looking at the same data, so did Trump...tim wrote:There is no question that Clinton put a lot of effort into Pennsylvania. Just look at the data:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary ... d=43356783
Which means that even if she had won Michigan and Wisconsin, she still would have lost because she lost Pennsylvania.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
That’s why think PA is very important for Joe, and I hope Joe/DNC will take it seriously so that they don’t fumble around...In that sense, they cannot take even a slightest chance about WI and MI too. Although AZ seems to be in play, it will be better served to concentrate resources in these three states as much as they can...
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
On a different note, although there are some nice highlights, I am not sure the first day of DNC convention is anything to brag about... maybe the following days of convention might create some good momentum...let’s see...
Re: President Trump
When I bitch about the Electoral College, my conservative friends tell me how very wrong I am.
The Constitution in their eyes, despite all the amendments over the years, is like holy scripture.
Their main argument is that the system in place gives proper weight to smaller states.
But what it *also* does is give undue weight to the swing states.
One bias replaces another, with the dire consequences we have seen.
Twice in my lifetime a president has been elected without carrying a majority of the electoral vote.
That is undemocratic and badly needs changing.
But, like gun laws, etc., I have little hope of this happening...
If I cannot vote by absentee ballot, I cannot vote at all. A month ago, I contacted the election division of the last country where I live to ask them to confirm I would be receiving a ballot.
Have not heard back from them.
How can a country that has sent men to the moon be unable to organize a fair election?
All the best,
Alex R.
The Constitution in their eyes, despite all the amendments over the years, is like holy scripture.
Their main argument is that the system in place gives proper weight to smaller states.
But what it *also* does is give undue weight to the swing states.
One bias replaces another, with the dire consequences we have seen.
Twice in my lifetime a president has been elected without carrying a majority of the electoral vote.
That is undemocratic and badly needs changing.
But, like gun laws, etc., I have little hope of this happening...
If I cannot vote by absentee ballot, I cannot vote at all. A month ago, I contacted the election division of the last country where I live to ask them to confirm I would be receiving a ballot.
Have not heard back from them.
How can a country that has sent men to the moon be unable to organize a fair election?
All the best,
Alex R.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
I actually looked into EU citizenship, Howard, I just miss out under my Polish and French ancestry. I actually love living in Maine, the way life SHOULD be. The problem is the rest of you outside of New England are bringing us down.
I’m not saying PA is a lock for Joe, CV, that is the problem. For at least 30 years it has been a bedrock of campaigns for Not only Democratic winners (Bill Clinton, Obama) but also Democratic losers (Gore, Kerry). The fact that he is struggling in his “home” state is evidence of big trouble.
I’m not saying PA is a lock for Joe, CV, that is the problem. For at least 30 years it has been a bedrock of campaigns for Not only Democratic winners (Bill Clinton, Obama) but also Democratic losers (Gore, Kerry). The fact that he is struggling in his “home” state is evidence of big trouble.
Re: President Trump
I liked it, thought it was very well done. Maybe because they were preaching to the choir? Still, most presentations felt genuine and far from phony, with lots of personal connections rather than the typical live convention rah-rah, sis-boom-bah and long boring speeches. Maybe I’m an easy mark. They also seemed to target youth, hopefully effectively.Chateau Vin wrote:On a different note, although there are some nice highlights, I am not sure the first day of DNC convention is anything to brag about... maybe the following days of convention might create some good momentum...let’s see...
Lots of highlights for me. Michelle Obama. The woman who lost her father to COVID who said "My dad was a healthy 65-year-old. His only pre-existing condition was trusting Donald Trump, and for that he paid with his life" was powerful and heartbreaking. Kasich. Klobuchar. Springsteen's Rising throughout was a nice theme. I even liked Sanders, who usually turns me off completely: "Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Trump golfs." The Stephen Stills/Billy Porter performance of For What It's Worth.
It’s not going to change the minds of the Trump faithful. I hope it motivates the apathetic to realize the importance of making their vote count. If it does that, it’s a success.
- JimHow
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Re: President Trump
This NYT article is so chilling, and yet is such a likely reality:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/opin ... e=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/opin ... e=Homepage
Re: President Trump
I’m trying not to focus on how Trump will subvert and then contest the election. Instead I focus on the polling averages at 538, which show Biden above the magic 50% threshold in PA, WI, MI, & FL. 50% is so key. Even when Hillary had big leads over Trump in some state polls, she never came close to 50% in any of these states (in the polling average), which showed that the 2016 election was still in flux, up to the very end, in a way 2020 isn’t.
- Chateau Vin
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Re: President Trump
Amen to that David...Me thinks people have already made the decision. The only question is how many people will come out and vote, irrespective of their tribalism or affiliation....DavidG wrote: .
.
It’s not going to change the minds of the Trump faithful. I hope it motivates the apathetic to realize the importance of making their vote count. If it does that, it’s a success.
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